Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Castle Hayne, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 6:03PM Saturday February 23, 2019 10:04 AM EST (15:04 UTC) Moonrise 10:47PMMoonset 9:37AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 514 Am Est Sat Feb 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning...
Today..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming E 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Patchy drizzle this morning. A chance of rain.
Tonight..SE winds 5 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog in the evening. A chance of rain, mainly in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..N winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 kt, becoming e. Seas 1 foot.
Wed..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 514 Am Est Sat Feb 23 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Northeast winds will weaken today as high pressure moves offshore. Southerly winds will increase tonight and Sunday ahead of a cold front, that will cross the coast Sunday evening. Advisory conditions are expected ahead of, and in wake of the front. High pressure will build in through early next week, in a diminishing wind trend Tue and Wed.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Castle Hayne, NC
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location: 34.35, -77.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 231112
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
612 am est Sat feb 23 2019

Synopsis
A weakening warm front will approach from the south today.

Warmer weather is expected Sunday ahead of a cold front, that
will cross the coast Sunday evening. High pressure will build
in through early next week with chances of rain increasing late
Wednesday into Friday.

Near term through Sunday
As of 320 am Saturday... It's not very pretty when the pineapple
express train runs over the toes of old man winter. One would
see plentiful equatorial pacific moisture streaming over a pool
of chilly northern stream air, bringing a minimum in sunshine
minutes, and yet, in this case, not all that much rain.

A shallow hill temperature trace today, as readings climb slowly
under clouds, struggling into the middle and upper 50s this
afternoon, a little cooler north of a klbt to keyf line. Rain
light, favored today mostly over SE nc. Warm air advection
ramps late Saturday, bringing nighttime temperature climbs into
early Sunday, peaking in abnormal warmth Sunday afternoon, prior
to cold frontal passage. Temperatures take a nice nose dive
Sunday night, 30-35 degrees cooler daybreak Monday from the
balminess of Sunday afternoon.

As both t TD surge Sunday afternoon, mu ml CAPE take a jump, and
frontal passage near peak heating will add boost to updrafts in
concert with frontal convergence, and a rumble of thunder could
pop, so slight chance inserted within this narrow window. With
850 winds near 50 knots at this time, not shocking if spc
upgrades the area to 'marginal' in time, instability aloft being
perhaps a limiter in question, and extent of threat. A few
record highs may be approached Sunday.

Short term Sunday night through Monday night
As of 300 am Saturday... Sunday night into early Monday will bring
high pressure building in from the northwest at the surface while
mid level flow is out of the W or wnw. This will favor clear skies
while temperatures remain fairly seasonable. Later Monday a ridge
axis builds in enough to all but shut down surface winds inhibiting
any additional bl cool advection from reaching the surface even as
the center of the high remains in the great lakes. Even so some
radiational cooling will become favored and most places away from
the immediate coast should dip below 40; generally about a category
below the previous night.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
As of 300 am Saturday... An element of the long term that appears to
offer some degree of certainty is the temperature forecast. Low
amplitude flow not only locally but across much of the CONUS will
mean fairly seasonable weather. Of less certainty is the chance for
rain... Though overall they will remain quite low since the
aforementioned mid level flow will not favor deep layer moisture.

Even so, some warm advection isentropic upglide will call for 20
pops on Wednesday as will a weak cold frontal passage on Thursday.

Uncertainty grows on Friday as models show a flat wave of low
pressure moving west to east across the area possibly bolstering rain
chances.

Aviation 11z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 12z... .Conditions to remain sub-vfr throughout TAF period
thanks to cad wedge set up across the area. Current ifr ceilings
across the area will likely persist throughout TAF period, except
for possible brief improvement to MVFR at coastal terminals this
afternoon. Ceilings will likely lower to lifr across the area after
midnight tonight, along with chance of widespread fog. Scattered
light rain across southeastern nc should remain through later
today, but have only kept vcsh in lbt and ilm tafs. Could see
brief visibility decreases at those terminals if any moderate
rain showers pass through. Current north-northeasterly winds will
continue throughout the day, before quickly becoming southerly
in the last few hours of the forecast period as a warm front pushes
northward.

Extended outlook... Sub-vfr will likely prevail early Sunday
before another cold front pushes through lifting toVFR late
Sunday through Wednesday.

Marine
Near term through Sunday ...

as of 320 am Saturday... After a brief lull in wind late today
and tonight, strong s-sw winds to follow in advance of an
approaching and moderately strong cold front. A wind-shift
across the waters to occur late Sunday and SCA flags are likely
ahead of and behind the front. As a result, the wave spectrum
will see decreasing NE waves today, then building SW wind-seas
late Saturday and Sunday. Chaotic seas late Sunday night and
early Monday when residual, large ssw waves, and NE wind seas
on the uptick interact. Isolated tstms possible late Sunday
with wind gusts even in showers up to 40 knots.

Sunday night through Monday night... Cold advection and well-aligned
boundary layer flow will bring strong enough winds that an advisory
will be needed. Flow remains out of the NW on Monday but as
pressures rise over sc ga the gradient will ease allowing both wind
and seas to drop below advisory thresholds. These rising pressures
move further east into the local area later Monday into Monday night
bringing light winds allowing seas to further settle.

Tuesday through Wednesday... Winds light and variable on Tuesday
with high pressure moving overhead. With no swell energy to
speak of seas will fall to minimal values. Uncertainty heading
into Wednesday regarding whether return flow develops or a weak
from moves through from the northwest as some major guidance
holds its passage off until Thursday.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon Sunday to noon est Monday for
amz250-252-254-256.

Synopsis... mbb
near term... 08
short term... mbb
long term... mbb
aviation... Vao


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 9 mi35 min 47°F 52°F1025.3 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi35 min N 8.9 G 11 47°F 54°F1025.3 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 18 mi117 min NE 16 G 21 50°F 54°F1024.3 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 18 mi35 min 54°F5 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi57 min ENE 16 G 21 58°F 58°F1023.1 hPa
41108 44 mi35 min 54°F4 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 46 mi57 min N 9.7 G 14 45°F 54°F1025 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC5 mi72 minN 710.00 miOvercast46°F44°F93%1025.6 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9NE14NE14NE12NE12
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1 day agoSW6SW9SW11W13W10SW10W8NW7SW6SW5S3CalmS4CalmCalmN3S3E4NE7NE6NE8NE9NE7NE8
2 days ago--N5NE6E7SE4E4E3CalmW6W4NW7NW6NW4NW4NW5CalmSW3S6NW4NW3NW4CalmSE3S3

Tide / Current Tables for Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Castle Hayne
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:07 AM EST     1.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:36 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:02 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:27 PM EST     1.87 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:02 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:26 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.51.821.91.61.20.80.40-0.20.10.61.21.71.91.81.61.30.90.60.2-0-0

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:23 AM EST     4.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:08 AM EST     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:36 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:43 PM EST     4.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:02 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:32 PM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.74.6432.11.10.2-0.401.32.73.84.34.443.22.31.50.6-0.1-0.10.82.23.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.