Monday, May27, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Castle Hayne, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 8:16PM Monday May 27, 2019 7:34 AM EDT (11:34 UTC) Moonrise 1:25AMMoonset 12:48PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 628 Am Edt Mon May 27 2019
Today..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt late this morning and afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..W winds 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 628 Am Edt Mon May 27 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A weak trough will move across the waters this morning, bringing a west wind this morning, becoming sw into afternoon. High pressure holding offshore will maintain moderate sw winds through the period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Castle Hayne, NC
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location: 34.35, -77.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 271107
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
707 am edt Mon may 27 2019

Synopsis
Hot and dry weather will prevail much of the week. Rain chances
and slight cooling are possible next weekend, as the upper ridge
flattens, and allows moisture and a weak trough to approach the
coast.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 300 am Monday... The broiler door is open so another scorcher
imminent as the synoptic regime remains nearly unchanged, with very
mild starts early this morning. The silver lining is that top-down
dry-mixing, will lessen absolute humidity with heating, keeping
apparent temperatures this afternoon below heat advisory criteria.

Despite the 'dry' heat, another dangerous day for those exposed to
the elements or outside for long duration, and a special weather
statement will be issued to provides heads up and recommendations.

Despite intense low-level heating and associated robust thermals,
the upper ridge is strong and little CAPE aloft is present, and as
such no mentionable pop values advertised. Elevated relative
humidity between 5-7 kft could result in a small population of
cumulus. This continues overnight, but MCV induced showers or tstms
late tonight from the NW does not look very probable at this time.

Tuesday equally hot if not a degree or 2 hotter, due to mild min-t
values, may 'feel' hotter in afternoon, as dewpoints come up a bit
from today's values, right now below advisory levels but closer.

Max-t records for the day include one ilm will likely break, 96 in
1989. Flo 97 in 1998 is in serious jeopardy, and lbt 94 in 2004
will be eclipsed today as well.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night
As of 300 am Monday... The beat GOES on for the short term period with
essentially a persistence forecast as massive mid level high
pressure continues to reside to the south. With the position of the
high the lower levels will feature a westerly downslope flow with
little moisture. This once again equates to highs nearing the triple
digits. In fact the mav guidance is now explicitly advertising
triple digits in most stations so Tuesday could be the hottest day
during the heat wave.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 300 am Monday... The extended suite of guidance shows
the ridge finally breaking down and sinking south with an
eventual subtle northwesterly flow developing. These changes
should make convection possible although there well be no really
organized systems or forcing. The piedmont trough and sea
breeze will have to be the triggers which is normally the case
in the summertime. Overall temperatures trend down very slowly
as the extended progresses and this should be a function of the
ridge breaking down not just a tendency toward climatology which
still shows normal highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

Aviation 11z Monday through Friday
As of 12z...VFR throughout the period and hot. Northwesterly winds
across much of the area with SE winds pinned along the coast at
around 10 knots. A few cirrus clouds will become bkn throughout the
day with mid-level clouds developing overnight.

Extended outlook... MainlyVFR into next week. Slight chance MVFR
each morning in low stratus fog, or isolated tstms.

Marine
As of 300 am Monday...

another scorcher, avoid over-exposure to the elements today if
possible, as serious land heat develops again this afternoon.

Once over the waters, some relief. SW waves 2-3 feet at 5
seconds the primary energy in the local sea spectrum this
period, mixed with a 1 foot swell from the ene at 11-12 seconds.

No tstms expected today as the atmosphere appears too dry.

Inshore gusts on occasion to 18 kt during the afternoon as sea
breeze strengthens.

Similar to the short and long term forecast, conditions are
steady state across the coastal waters. Modest southwest winds will
be in place through the period. Speeds will be 10-15 knots but as
the piedmont trough becomes a little more pronounced later in the
week the speeds trend toward the higher end of the range.

Significant seas won't be much to speak of with 2-4 feet and mostly
2-3 feet.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Shk
near term... Mjc
short term... Shk
long term... Shk
aviation... 21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 9 mi41 min 75°F 81°F1014.8 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi41 min W 8.9 G 13 79°F 76°F1014.5 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 18 mi27 min W 7.8 G 14 77°F 78°F1014.3 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 18 mi35 min 77°F2 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi27 min W 12 G 18 78°F 78°F1014.4 hPa
41108 44 mi35 min 78°F3 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 46 mi27 min W 14 G 18 78°F 79°F1014.9 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC5 mi42 minW 88.00 miFair76°F66°F74%1014.7 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE8E6E10E9E11
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2 days agoW13W14W11W12W10W10
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NW10NW12NW9W4CalmCalmSW3CalmE11E9E6E7E7E5NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Castle Hayne
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Mon -- 01:51 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:24 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:45 AM EDT     1.67 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:29 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:20 PM EDT     1.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.30.20.40.81.21.51.61.71.51.20.80.50.30.10.10.40.91.21.51.61.61.31

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:24 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:01 AM EDT     3.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:35 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:36 PM EDT     3.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:56 PM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.72.73.43.843.732.11.30.70.30.20.91.92.83.43.83.83.32.51.71.10.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.