Saturday, August18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Castle Hayne, NC

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Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 7:56PM Saturday August 18, 2018 12:25 PM EDT (16:25 UTC) Moonrise 1:07PMMoonset 11:54PM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 938 Am Edt Sat Aug 18 2018
Rest of today..SW winds 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt this afternoon. Occasional gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Numerous showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, then 3 ft in the afternoon. Scattered showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, then 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day, then showers and tstms likely through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 938 Am Edt Sat Aug 18 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure anchored offshore from the southeast u.s. Will influence the area through early next week as ridging from it extends onshore in the vicinity of ga and fl. This will maintain sw winds across the area, until a frontal boundary drops south remaining just inland and north of the area waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Castle Hayne, NC
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location: 34.35, -77.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 181330
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
930 am edt Sat aug 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure offshore will maintain warm and humid summertime
weather, with a chance of showers or a thunderstorm each day. A
cold front is expected to cross the coast late next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 915 am Saturday... Morning visible satellite imagery shows
mid-level cloud cover advancing across the forecast area. There
are patches of low stratus across darlington and marlboro
counties that will mix out over the next couple of hours,
however general trends through this evening will be for cloud
cover to increase ahead of a shortwave making its way across
middle tn this morning. Latest hi-res guidance is indicating a
delayed arrival of associated convection. Although 12z area
soundings are supportive of scattered non-severe thunderstorms,
the main forcing appears to arrive in the western CWA after 00z
Sunday, so will reflect this in the upcoming forecast update.

Any shower and thunderstorm development today would initiate
first on the sea breeze front, followed by low chances far
inland by late afternoon.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
As of 342 am Saturday... 'unsettled" as elevated precipitable
water, strong august heating, and surface boundaries all come
into the mix, spurring smatterings of convection about the
region this period. GEFS surface to 500 mb 'shear magnitude'
values are low, and overall severe threat is low this period.

That said, Sunday a localized microburst is possible due to
layer of dry air above 20 kft, boosting dcape. CB towers often
propel to drier upper reaches after boundary collisions or cell
mergers, so a non-zero downburst wind hazard, and localized,
looks favored moreso Sunday. A weak to moderate steering flow
and high column moisture may lead to brief minor flooding in
spots due to training or back-building torrential rainfall.

Max-t a few degrees above normal, and min-t even more above
normal.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
As of 300 pm Friday... An active period of weather looks likely
much of the extended as a series of fronts troughs impacts the
southeast. The net result will be an extended period during
which at least scattered convection is possible each day. Max
temperatures will be seasonable, reaching the upper 80s to lower
90s through Wednesday before a front in the area results in max
temperatures in the low to middle 80s for Thursday and Friday.

Mins should generally be in the low to mid 70s but a few upper
60s are possible well inland Thursday night.

Aviation 13z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 11z... Challenging aviation conditions arrive later this
afternoon in the form of thunderstorms. The activity should
begin inland mid to late afternoon and advect to the coast by
late afternoon into the evening. Some MVFR to even fleeting ifr
conditions are expected.

Extended outlook... Precipitation chances will be fairly high
through Monday. Mainly diurnal thunderstorms will continue into
mid week.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 915 am Saturday... Buoy obs this morning are showing some
gusts of 20 knots, with an occasional gust to 25 knots, however
sustained winds are clustered around 15 knots. Seas are running
around 3-4 feet. Trends will be for southwest winds to increase
during the afternoon and overnight as a mid-level shortwave
pushes into western nc, and shoves a surface trough towards the
coast. No significant changes will be made to the forecast with
this mornings update other than to add mention of some gusts in
excess of 20 knots.

Short term Sunday through Monday night ... As of 342 am
Saturday... Not as easy marine period a scec or SCA cannot be
ruled out, mainly because of gusts near 25 kt. This will result
in a bumpy marine period both Sunday and Monday, as high
pressure offshore interacts with a surface trough inland,
bringing blustery SW winds. Scattered tstms will prevail this
period and radar updates are suggested. Cloud to sea lightning
may be active at times. The sea spectrum will just about all
wind waves with dominant wave periods around 5 seconds, and thus
steep wave faces.

Long term marine Tuesday through Wednesday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... Overall, SW winds in the 10 to 15 kt
range can be expected through the long term period. Seas will
run 2 to 4 ft through much of the period, though 3 to 5 footers
are possible northern waters Tuesday into early Wednesday.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for scz054.

Nc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz106-
108.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mjc
near term... Crm shk
short term... Mjc
long term... Ran
aviation... Shk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 9 mi44 min 86°F 82°F1017.6 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi44 min SSW 15 G 17 84°F 79°F1018 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 18 mi86 min 78°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 18 mi78 min SSW 16 G 21 81°F 78°F1017.4 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi78 min SW 19 G 27 82°F 82°F1018.5 hPa
41108 44 mi86 min 83°F5 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 46 mi78 min WSW 16 G 21 81°F 82°F1018.3 hPa
SSBN7 46 mi146 min 2 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC5 mi33 minSSW 910.00 miA Few Clouds87°F72°F61%1017.4 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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2 days agoW4SE7SE8
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Tide / Current Tables for Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Castle Hayne
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:11 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Sat -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT     1.75 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:27 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:21 PM EDT     1.89 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.20.30.71.21.51.71.71.51.20.80.60.30.10.10.511.41.71.91.81.61.20.9

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Sat -- 03:53 AM EDT     4.28 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:30 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:34 PM EDT     4.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:10 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.62.73.54.14.33.932.11.30.60.10.112.23.244.54.643.22.41.60.90.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.