Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 10:57 AM   Moonset 12:41 AM

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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 934 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning - .
Overnight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers late this evening and early morning, then a chance of showers late. Tue - SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds, becoming se 6 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Showers with a chance of tstms. Tue night - S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: S 7 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 5 ft at 8 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 5 ft at 8 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu - N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 7 seconds and ne 1 ft at 3 seconds. Thu night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Fri night - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.Sat - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 934 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - A warm front will approach from the S tonight, slowly lifting across the area Tue thru Tue night. Expect a couple cfps to follow, one during Wed and the next early Thu. High pressure to prevail Thu into Fri followed by the next frontal system Sat. The threat for pcpn will occur every day except Thu into Fri.

FXUS62 KILM 140159 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 959 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will move further offshore tonight, allowing continued Gulf moisture to spread northward. Widespread showers should develop late tonight and be joined by thunderstorms and areas of heavy rain on Tue morning as a warm front lifts through. Scattered showers and storms will remain possible through Wed, but dry weather is expected on Thu as high pressure builds in. More rain chances could develop late Fri into Sat as the next storm system approaches.

UPDATE
Have tweaked temps up a degree or 2 along the ILM CWA coast due to onshore flow across 70+ degree waters. Have continued the trend of increasing POPs overnight with low level influx of moisture evident via latest near term models and KLTX VWP.
Initially, showers moving northward will be low topped but may become better organized into tstorm activity toward daybreak Tue. An embedded s/w trof within 5h flow will past just south of the FA come Tue morning but should enhance the pcpn coverage and intensity especially across the ILM SC CWA and coastal waters after daybreak Tue.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Ejecting shortwave over the southeastern US will bring deep moisture overnight. Increasing moisture and isentropic lift will bring widespread showers by Tuesday morning, increasing in intensity throughout the day. Periods of heavy rain are possible, especially during the afternoon along the coast. Weak instability may fuel a few isolated thunderstorms. Strong shear and low level helicity could produce a tornado in the strongest of these storms. Thick cloud cover will keep temperatures in the upper 70s. Inland on the west side of the low, temperatures may peak in the mid 70s. Showers become scattered during the late afternoon as dry air filters in behind the exiting low.

Rainfall totals have decreased since the latest forecast update. Models continue to waiver in how uniform precipitation will be as it shifts north and east on Tuesday. Still, periods of heavy rain area expected which could make travel difficult for a brief period.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
On the backside of the lead shortwave responsible for the widespread shower activity on Tuesday, weak shortwave ridging and the loss of any daytime heating should result in a relative lull in shower activity during Tuesday evening. With another impulse following close behind it and nocturnal cooling acting to reduce instability, some guidance suggests a decaying line of showers and thunderstorms may arrive in the western zones around midnight and continue dissipating as it tracks across the Pee Dee region. Whether or not this occurs, forcing provided by the impulse should result in at least isolated to widely scattered showers and storms during the overnight hours before a cold front pushes through on Wednesday morning, especially with pwats remaining 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal until the frontal passage occurs. Overnight lows will remain quite mild ahead of the cold front, with mid-upper 60s forecast.

On Wednesday, with the closed mid-level low and several vorticity lobes rotating about it tracking eastward, this will bring the potential for at least a couple waves of showers and thunderstorms across the area, especially during the afternoon and evening. Weak to moderate instability and modest but sufficient effective shear remains evident on forecast soundings, keeping at least a marginal risk (threat level 1 out of 5) for severe weather in play, with the main threats being large hail and damaging winds. High temperatures should reach the low-mid 80s with mixed clouds and sun as cooler temperatures aloft help to develop plenty of cumulus. Showers and storms should dissipate late on Wednesday with the loss of daytime heating. With passage of the mid-level low aloft, another cold front is expected to slide through from the north, veering winds to NNW overnight. Low temps will depend on how much cool advection happens behind the front, with low-mid 60s presently expected.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Mid-level ridging and surface high pressure will make for a dry and pleasant Thursday into Friday morning with daytime highs in the low-mid 80s and overnight lows in the low-mid 60s.

Dry weather will be short-lived as another upper system approaches from the west and brings unsettled weather over the weekend. Guidance continues to show some differences in the timing and evolution of the mid-level features, which has resulted in keeping PoPs in the chance range across the area for this update. Temperatures are expected to stay above normal, but of course these will be modulated by the extent of cloud cover and showers. The storm system should move offshore by Sunday with weak high pressure building in behind it for the start of next week.

AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Mid and upper level VFR ceilings to dominate this evening, then after 05Z, look for periodic MVFR ceilings and vsby from showers and fog to begin overspreading the area from SW to NE.
After daybreak, inland terminals may see dominate MVFR with periodic IFR from the heavier showers and lowered ceilings.
Have also indicated Prob30 groups inland terminals for thunderstorm potential. At the coastal terminals, will follow inland terminals per se, but at a slower degradation pace with respect to both ceilings and vsby. Nevertheless, periodic IFR will likely occur at all terminals, with the inland terminals the best chance. WFP will during Tue aftn/evening, with the thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of this boundary. Winds generally E-SE around 5 kt tonight, 10-15 kt (g20 kt at the coastal terminals) daylight Tue, becoming SSE-S after the WFP.

Extended Outlook...Periodic flight restrictions may occur Tue night thru Wed ahead of the next weather system. VFR conditions to dominate Thu thru Fri. The next system with potential flight restrictions approaches Sat.

MARINE
Through Tuesday...
Onshore flow will increase tonight ahead of a developing low. SE winds turn southerly by Tuesday morning and winds increase to 15-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots at times. The existing Small Craft Advisory has been extended to all nearshore waters through early Wednesday, primarily for 4-7 foot seas. Showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday could bring a strong wind gust or isolated waterspout.

Tuesday night through Saturday...
SCA conditions due to seas are expected to continue through Tuesday night while isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue ahead of a cold front. The cold front will push offshore on Wednesday, however, unsettled weather conditions due to additional showers and storms may linger into Wednesday evening before high pressure finally builds across the Carolinas for Thursday into Friday. Another storm system may bring unsettled weather for late Friday through Saturday, but winds and seas are currently expected to stay below SCA thresholds.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Other - Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for

Strong onshore winds will increase surf heights to as high as 4 ft Tuesday. Higher surf heights combined with long period easterly swell will create conditions conducive to the development of strong rip currents for the beaches of North Carolina on Tuesday.


ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday morning for NCZ106-108-110.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

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Castle Hayne
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Mon -- 01:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:56 AM EDT     1.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:14 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:40 PM EDT     1.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
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Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

Wilmington
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Mon -- 01:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:12 AM EDT     4.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:20 AM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:56 PM EDT     3.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:09 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
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Wilmington, North Carolina, Tide feet

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