Monday, August20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hampstead, NC

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Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 7:53PM Monday August 20, 2018 2:59 AM EDT (06:59 UTC) Moonrise 2:56PMMoonset 12:34AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 936 Pm Edt Sun Aug 19 2018
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, then 3 ft in the afternoon. Showers and tstms likely.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Scattered showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Numerous showers and tstms.
Thu..N winds 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 936 Pm Edt Sun Aug 19 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Southwest winds, around the western periphery of high pressure anchored well offshore of the southeast coast, will continue until midweek. A front should move through the local waters Wednesday into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hampstead, NC
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location: 34.37, -77.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 200524
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
124 am edt Mon aug 20 2018

Synopsis
High pressure offshore will maintain warm and humid weather,
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through the period.

A cold front is expected to cross the coast Wednesday night,
with a drying trend Thursday into early next weekend.

Near term through today
As of 700 pm Sunday... Main convective activity running from
near maxton east to lumberton area and across to elizabethtown
this evening. Storms were producing a decent amount of mainly
cloud to cloud lightning and some rainfall amounts over an inch
in isolated spots. Other lighter pcp from previous convection
was over southern georgetown and williamsburg counties. Plenty
of debris clouds over much of the area except right along the
cape fear coast. Otherwise, another warm and humid night on tap
with some limited shwr TSTM activity overnight, mainly closer to
the coast. The mid to high clouds and nocturnal jetting should
help to keep any widespread fog at bay, but in may see some
right around daybreak for a few hours in places that have had
some previous pcp overnight and where skies clear some. Temps
should drop into the mid 70s most places.

Previous discussion:thunderstorms will develop and be isolated
to scattered this afternoon and tend to focus along areas away
from the coast. Satellite imagery showing deeper cumulus cells
supportive of this idea portrayed by higher resolution guidance
such as hrrr, rap, and 12z wrf. GFS solution showing heavier and
further east activity an outlier and was not factored much into
the forecast. Several sheared out vorticity centers will streak
overhead tonight making a dry forecast difficult to go with.

Thunderstorm coverage may increase slightly tomorrow afternoon
with northwestern zones being favored in coverage.

Short term tonight through Tuesday night
As of 3 pm Sunday... H5 low approaching the midwest Monday evening
will deamplify as it lifts across the great lakes region during
Tuesday. The mid upper ridge across the carolinas will shift
offshore during this time. By Tuesday night the weakening h5 trough
axis will shift across the eastern u.S. With the bulk of the
dynamics to stay well north of here as it moves by. Ultimately, the
inland trough and sea breeze will provide some lift in an unstable
atmosphere through the short term period with 20-40% pops fairly
common. Favored a blend of mav met temperatures each period. A
resultant sea breeze will keep conditions breezy along the coast
Tuesday afternoon into the evening.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
As of 3 pm Sunday... Mid-level pattern will be marked by 5h trough
through Fri before weak 5h ridge expands east over the area. Lack of
deep moisture will limit precip chances somewhat during the period,
the best chances likely being Wed as the arriving trough pushes a
cold front into the area. Surface high building in ensures the
front and deeper moisture shift a little farther offshore into
the weekend. At this point uncertainty creeps in concerning how
quickly a weak coastal trough develops and then moves onshore as
the high to the north shifts east. Will continue to carry
chance pop Wed with chance to likely pop Wed night. Once the
front is through, confidence in the forecast decrease and will
carry slight chance to chance pop for the remainder of the
period. Given the lack widespread deep moisture think diurnal
activity will be limited along the sea breeze and any lingering
boundaries. Temperatures start off above climo but following the
passage of the cold front later Wed temps drop below climo for
thu through sun.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
As of 06z... Once again similar conditions expected regarding
the evolution of showers and thunderstorms for the mostly
daytime period. Expect mainlyVFR conditions as the coverage
should once again be limited. As for the next few hours, fairly
strong signals that lbt and flo will see at least a brief period
of ifr fog and or stratus and used tempo groups to address.

Extended outlook... Scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, accompanied by brief
MVFR conditions. Cold front late in the period Thursday may
cross all terminals of SE nc and NE sc, bringing a surface wind-
shift.

Marine
Near term through Monday ...

as of 700 pm Sunday... Sw flow to continue as the area remains
between inland trough and offshore high. The scec-worthy 5 ft
seas are no longer showing up in much data; even 41013 is only
running 3.5 ft so this headline has been dropped in favor of a
continuation of a 2-4 ft forecast.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night ...

as of 3 pm Sunday... A front is progged to remain north of the
waters Monday night with high pressure far off the southeast
u.S. Coast and a trough located to the west. This pattern will
maintain southwesterly flow across the adjacent waters while the
gradient will keep speeds up to around 15 knots into Tuesday.

The pressure gradient will increase by Tuesday night with a
brief period of small craft conditions possible. Seas will be
around 3-4 ft Monday night and Tuesday then around 5 ft during
Tuesday night with steep conditions.

Long term Wednesday through Friday ...

as of 3 pm Sunday... Cold front crosses the water later Wed or
wed night with high pressure building in for Thu and fri. Ahead
of the front southwest flow will briefly run a solid 15 kt
before veering from southwest to northwest Wed night. Pinched
gradient Thu morning leads to slightly increased northeast flow,
an event that will be repeated late Thu night as secondary
northeast surge sets up. Second round Thu night will be
stronger with solid 15 kt winds possible. Seas 3 to 5 ft at the
start of the period gradually fall to 3 to 4 ft late Wed and wed
night and 2 to 3 ft Thu and fri.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis...

near term... mbb rgz
short term... Srp
long term... Iii
aviation... Shk
marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi48 min SSW 11 G 12 81°F 80°F1016.5 hPa
WLON7 16 mi48 min 80°F 82°F1016.1 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 16 mi52 min SSW 12 G 16 80°F 80°F1015.4 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 16 mi90 min 79°F3 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi52 min SW 9.7 G 16 80°F 80°F1016.4 hPa
41064 42 mi52 min SW 12 G 16 82°F 82°F1016.5 hPa
41159 42 mi90 min 83°F4 ft
41108 48 mi90 min 81°F4 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC13 mi67 minSSW 810.00 miFair80°F73°F82%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
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Mon -- 01:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:49 AM EDT     2.44 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:29 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:32 PM EDT     3.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:43 PM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.422.32.42.321.510.60.40.40.81.42.22.83.23.22.92.51.91.30.90.6

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:33 AM EDT     2.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:52 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:15 PM EDT     3.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:43 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.92.52.92.92.62.11.40.70.20.10.411.92.83.43.73.63.22.51.70.90.30.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.