Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fillmore, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 5:18PM Thursday January 24, 2019 2:13 AM PST (10:13 UTC) Moonrise 10:40PMMoonset 10:42AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 810 Pm Pst Wed Jan 23 2019
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E to ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Local gusts to 20 kt south of ventura. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 15 seconds.
Thu..N to ne winds 5 to 15 kt with local gusts to 20 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 14 seconds.
Thu night..Eastern portion, ne winds 15 to 20 kt. Western portion, S winds 5 to 10 kt becoming variable 10 kt or less after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 13 seconds.
Fri..Eastern portion, ne winds 15 to 20 kt becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Western portion, winds variable 10 kt or less becoming W around 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 13 seconds.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 16 seconds.
Sat..Eastern portion, ne winds 15 to 20 kt. Western portion, winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 16 seconds.
Sat night..Eastern portion, ne winds 15 to 20 kt becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Western portion, winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 16 seconds.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft.
PZZ600 810 Pm Pst Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 04z...or 8 pm pst, a 1034 mb surface high about 400 nm west of san francisco will build into the eastern nevada through Thursday, while a 1020 mb thermal trough located over northern baja california will move northwest into the southern california bight. Locally gusty offshore winds and choppy seas will develop nearshore.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fillmore, CA
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location: 34.4, -119     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 240514
afdlox
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
914 pm pst Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis 23 913 pm.

Periods of gusty offshore winds will continue through Thursday
across many mountain and valley areas and will be strongest during
the morning hours. Temperatures will gradually warm through the
week to above normal as conditions remain dry and sunny.

Short term (wed-sat) 23 909 pm.

A blocking ridge of high pressure remains off the california coast
this evening, while a trough of low pressure is moving through
the great basin. This trough will brush the area to the east and
provide some upper-level support for gusty offshore winds the
next several days. A wind advisory has been issued for most of the
los angeles and ventura county coast, valleys, and mountains
starting early Thursday morning and continuing through at least
mid-day Thursday. There is a decent chance that this advisory will
likely be extended through Friday, or reissued for Thursday night
and Friday. Locally gusty offshore winds are also possible in the
santa lucias tonight and into early Thursday morning with the
strongest winds likely below passes and canyons of the southern
coast ranges.

Low-to-moderate confidence in at least patchy low clouds and
dense fog across the san luis obispo county interior valleys late
tonight and early Thursday morning. Model solutions and guidance
hints at dense fog developing for kprb, but the areal coverage
could be greater.

***from previous discussion***
overnight lows will be chilly in wind protected locations but
expected to be slightly warmer the next couple nights.

Long term (sun-wed) 23 213 pm.

Gradients start trending onshore Sunday as a trough starts to drop
south out of the canadian rockies so look for coast valleys to
cool off a couple degrees, though remaining at least 3-6 degrees
above normal. The main cool down will be Monday with highs
dropping back into the 60s most areas with light onshore flow in
place.

Models still supporting a strong offshore gradient developing
Tuesday behind the trough passage. Both the GFS and ECMWF were
weaker than earlier runs but more so the gfs. The one big factor
lacking at least on the operational runs is upper support. Most of
the trough energy and cold air remain too far to the east so while
the surface gradient should still be enough to generate advisory
level winds the minimal upper support could keep it from being an
even bigger santa ana event. Gradients weaken quite a bit Wed so
it would mostly be a one day wind event.

Aviation 23 2341z.

At 23z, there was no marine layer at klax.

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. There is a chance
of moderate wind shear and turbulence between 04z and 15z at
terminals north of point conception, and south of point
conception after 10z. There is a chance of vlifr to lifr
conditions between 13z and 17z at kprb.

Klax...VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a
10 percent chance of moderate wind shear and turbulence after
10z. Any east winds should remain less than 7 knots.

Kbur...VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a
20 percent chance of moderate wind shear and turbulence after
10z.

Marine 23 847 pm.

For the outer waters and inner waters north of point sal, fairly
high confidence in the forecast. Small craft advisory winds will
likely linger near points conception and arguello through late
tonight. There is a 30 percent chance that this advisory could be
extended into Thursday morning. Otherwise, winds and seas are
expected to remain below SCA levels through Sunday.

For the inner waters south of point conception, moderate
confidence in current forecast. Across eastern portions of the
sba channel and the southern inner waters from point mugu to
santa monica, there is a 30 percent chance of small craft
advisory level northeast winds Thursday, increasing to 40 percent
between Thursday night and Friday, and again Friday night and
Saturday.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Wind advisory in effect from 6 am to noon pst Thursday for
zones 40-41. (see laxnpwlox).

Wind advisory in effect from 3 am to noon pst Thursday for
zones 44>46-53-54-88-547. (see laxnpwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pst Thursday for
zone 673. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (sat-wed)
Advisory level north to northeast winds will be possible night
and morning hours Sat for wind-prone areas of ventura and los
angeles counties. These areas may have advisory-level to possible
high wind warning level wind gusts Mon night into tue.

Public... Hall mw
aviation... Hall
marine... Hall
synopsis... Kj
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 28 mi52 min 58°F2 ft
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 37 mi97 min N 1.9 G 5.1 51°F 1020.6 hPa
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 38 mi55 min NE 7 G 9.9 53°F 59°F1020.4 hPa
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 42 mi73 min 60°F2 ft
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 44 mi53 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 58°F 60°F1019.6 hPa55°F
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 46 mi53 min ESE 1.9 G 3.9 58°F 58°F1020.4 hPa57°F

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Camarillo, Camarillo Airport, CA14 mi18 minN 010.00 miFair45°F35°F68%1020.6 hPa
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA17 mi22 minNE 510.00 miFair52°F34°F50%1019.6 hPa
Point Mugu, Naval Air Warfare Center, CA20 mi76 minN 010.00 miFair47°F36°F66%1020.4 hPa

Wind History from CMA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8N4NW5NW5NW3CalmCalmCalmW5W5W9W10W10W7SW4W3SE3NE6E8NE9CalmW3E4Calm
1 day agoNE11NE9NE7E9N9NE11E21
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E12NE10NE7NW4NW4E13NE15NE13NE16NE16
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2 days agoW14W12W12NW9NW11W8W20
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W156W15W15
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W15W15NW16NW16NW15NW8NW13CalmN4NE8N4E3NE10

Tide / Current Tables for Ventura, California
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Ventura
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Thu -- 05:25 AM PST     1.59 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:59 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:43 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:18 AM PST     5.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:19 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:17 PM PST     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:41 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.54.33.62.82.11.61.72.23.24.25.15.65.54.83.62.30.9-0.1-0.5-0.40.31.42.73.8

Tide / Current Tables for Port Hueneme, California
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Port Hueneme
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:22 AM PST     1.59 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:43 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:19 AM PST     5.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:19 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:14 PM PST     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:40 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.54.33.62.821.61.72.33.24.25.15.65.54.83.62.20.9-0.1-0.5-0.40.41.52.73.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.