Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fillmore, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 7:16PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 12:10 PM PDT (19:10 UTC) Moonrise 8:04AMMoonset 9:19PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 911 Am Pdt Wed Mar 29 2017
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 16 seconds.
Tonight..Western portion...nw winds 15 to 20 kt. Eastern portion... NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 15 seconds.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 20 kt...becoming 15 to 25 kt with local gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 15 seconds.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with local gusts to 35 kt... Becoming 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 11 seconds...subsiding to 4 to 6 ft dominant period 9 seconds after midnight.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 11 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt...becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 6 to 8 ft at 12 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft.
PZZ600 911 Am Pdt Wed Mar 29 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 16z...or 9 am pst...a 1029 mb high was located 550 nm west of point conception with another 1025 mb high in nevada. A weak trough was located along the southwest ca coast. Winds will be elevated during much of this coming week. Gales will likely return again Thursday and Friday. Short period seas will dominate the waters due to persistent northwest winds.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fillmore, CA
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location: 34.4, -119     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 291757
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles/oxnard ca
1057 am pdt Wed mar 29 2017

Synopsis
Weak high pressure aloft and offshore flow will support well above
normal temperatures today. A trough of low pressure will bring
cooler conditions for Thursday and Friday with another round of
gusty northerly winds. A brief warmup is likely this weekend with
high pressure aloft nosing into the region, before another trough
brings cooler and breezy conditions early next week.

Short term (tdy-fri)
winds are underwhelming this morning as upper support is weak and
even gradients are about half what the models had shown for today.

So the advisories have been cancelled and now we'll wait for the
next burst of northerly winds late Thu into fri. Based on the 12z
models today this next event looks just as strong as the previous
north wind event Monday night into early Tuesday so we'll likely
be issuing high wind watches for the mountains, including the
santa monicas, and antelope valley. Strong advisories will be
needed in many other areas.

In the meantime, a warm day today with some lower 90s possible in
the warmer valleys and 80s for inland parts of the coastal zones.

Will probably fall short of the records but only by a few degrees.

***from previous discussion***
the ridge axis will move east of the region later today, then an
upper level trough will move into the pac NW tonight and early
thu. It will then close off into an upper low as it moves into the
great basin Thu afternoon. The WRF shows an eddy circulation
across the inner waters tonight, and it is possible that some low
clouds/fog could push into coastal sections of l.A. County late
tonight and Thu morning, but at this point, that seems like a low
probability. Similarly, some low clouds could also develop on the
central coast.

A dry frontal system will move through northern sections of the
forecast area thu. Strengthening winds aloft and a good area of
subsidence will overspread the region during the day. Gusty west
to northwest winds should develop in the mountains, in the
antelope valley and on the central coast during the afternoon, and
winds will likely reach advisory levels in these areas. MAX temps
should be down 8 to 12 degrees in most areas on thu.

The upper low will drift east southeastward Thu night, reaching
the four corners area Fri morning. Strong northwest winds at 700
and 850 mb, and decent subsidence will likely bring widespread
advisory level northwest to north winds Thu night, transitioning
to a more nely direction Fri morning. This wind event looks quite
similar to that which occurred Mon night and Tue morning, though
perhaps a bit less strong. The winds will drop off across the
central coast Thu evening, but elsewhere, expect advisory levels
winds across the mtns and south coast of sba county, the mtns of
l.A. And vtu counties, the santa clarita valley, much of the san
fernando valley and the valleys of vtu county, the los angeles
county coast below passes and canyons from malibu to the hollywood
hills and the westside of los angeles. There may be some high
wind warning level gusts in the mtns, but it looks as though those
will be localized.

There will likely be some low clouds on northern and interior
slopes as northerly upslope flow pushes into those areas, but
do not expect any precipitation. Winds will diminish in most
areas Fri afternoon. MAX temps on Fri should be similar to those
on thu, or perhaps down a couple of degrees in some areas.

Long term (sat-tue)
an upper ridge will build into the region sat, causing heights and
thicknesses to rise. Offshore low level flow will continue, with
some gusty winds, but below advisory levels. Expect significant
warming across the region sat, with temps back into at least the
lower 80s in the valleys. A trough will approach with west coast
Sunday, and low level flow will turn onshore. Expect a few degrees
of cooling, especially across the coastal plain.

The trough will move through the west coast north of the forecast
area, then into the great basin Monday, likely bringing a bit
more cooling to the region. However, the GFS now shows a weaker
system than it showed on last night's run, so cooling will be less
dramatic, and there is no longer a chance of rain. The trough will
move into the rockies and southern plains states on tue. A broad
wnw flow pattern will set up across the region, with heights rising
slightly, and only minor changes in MAX temps expected.

Aviation 29/1800z
at 1800z, there was no marine layer at klax.

High confidence in the current forecast through 09z. Very low
confidence for the los angeles coastal tafs after 09z. The big
question is whether ifr ceilings will make into klax and klgb late
tonight and with no sign of any clouds in the coastal waters, we
decided to hold off for now.

Even though Thursday evening is just outside of the forecast
period, there is a significant chance of a brief period of
northerly cross winds at klax for Thursday evening into very early
Friday morning. The most likely period for this activity will be
04z to 09z.

Klax... High confidence in the current forecast through 09z. There
is a 50 percent chc of ifr cig/vis after 09z.

Kbur... High confidence in the currentVFR forecast.

Marine 29/900 am
across the outer waters... A combination of winds and seas will
keep small craft advisory conditions through at least Thursday
morning. Gale force winds are likely Thursday afternoon through
Friday.

Across the inner waters... Strong SCA winds will affect the
western portions of the inner waters on Thursday and Friday with a
40 percent chc of gale force winds.

Lox watches/warnings/advisories
Ca... High surf advisory in effect until 2 pm pdt this afternoon
for zones 34-35. (see laxcfwlox).

Beach hazards statement in effect until 3 pm pdt this
afternoon for zones 40-41-87. (see laxcfwlox).

High wind watch in effect from Thursday evening through
Friday morning for zone 46. (see laxnpwlox).

High wind watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through
Friday morning for zones 52>54. (see laxnpwlox).

High wind watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through
late Thursday night for zone 59. (see laxnpwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm pdt Friday for zone
645. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm pdt Thursday for
zones 670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Gale watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through Friday
afternoon for zones 670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (fri-tue)
gusty north winds will affect portions of the region Friday
morning.

Public... Mw/db
aviation... Sweet
marine... Sweet
synopsis... Munroe
weather.Gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 28 mi40 min 58°F5 ft
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 37 mi40 min SW 4.1 G 4.1 59°F 1018.2 hPa
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 38 mi40 min WSW 1.9 G 1.9 62°F 58°F1017.9 hPa
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 42 mi40 min 60°F3 ft
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 45 mi30 min W 5.8 G 7.8 61°F 60°F1017.5 hPa55°F
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 46 mi30 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 1018.4 hPa

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Camarillo, Camarillo Airport, CA14 mi75 minENE 910.00 miFair84°F30°F15%1018 hPa
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA17 mi79 minW 1010.00 miFair69°F52°F55%1017.4 hPa
Point Mugu, Naval Air Warfare Center, CA20 mi74 minS 1110.00 miA Few Clouds67°F51°F57%1018 hPa

Wind History from CMA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW11W11W17W14W13W9S8CalmNE5NW5W3NE8NE9N4NE6NE9NW6W6NW3CalmCalmNE7NE9SW8
1 day agoSW10W13
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W16CalmE7W9NW4E4NE6CalmNE4NE5N5CalmCalmCalm3W8W10
2 days agoSW9SW10SW10SW9SW7S5SW6SE6SE5E5NE4NW3S3CalmE4CalmNE3NE3CalmCalmCalmS33S4

Tide / Current Tables for Ventura, California
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Ventura
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:07 AM PDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:47 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:05 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:09 AM PDT     4.83 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:11 PM PDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:16 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:19 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:16 PM PDT     5.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.93.82.41.10.1-0.3-00.92.13.44.44.84.63.92.81.70.80.40.61.42.63.955.5

Tide / Current Tables for Port Hueneme, California
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Port Hueneme
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:04 AM PDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:47 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:04 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:10 AM PDT     4.83 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:08 PM PDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:18 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:17 PM PDT     5.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.93.82.41.10.1-0.3-00.92.13.44.44.84.63.92.81.60.80.40.61.42.63.955.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.