Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fillmore, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 6:20PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 11:11 AM PDT (18:11 UTC) Moonrise 2:01PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 838 Am Pdt Tue Oct 16 2018
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw winds 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 11 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 11 seconds.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 10 seconds.
Wed night..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 13 seconds.
Thu..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 13 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
PZZ600 838 Am Pdt Tue Oct 16 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 15z...or 8 am pdt, a 1028 mb high was over nevada and a weak trough was located along the sw california coast. Gusty offshore winds and associated wind waves will affect portions of the coastal waters south of ventura through the morning hours. The winds will be weaker than Monday's winds.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fillmore, CA
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location: 34.4, -119     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 161721
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
1021 am pdt Tue oct 16 2018

Synopsis 16 901 am.

A persistent pattern of warm and dry days - with afternoon breezes
- will continue through Friday. Low pressure over arizona will
retrograde over southern california this weekend, increasing
offshore wind speeds and bringing rain showers to inland areas.

Short term (tdy-thu) 16 934 am.

Winds quite a bit weaker this morning but still strong enough for
low end wind advisories across portions of the la ventura valleys
and mountains. While the weakening gradients and upper support
result in less wind they also mean warmer temps for all areas
except those right at the coast so most inland areas should be a
few degrees warmer than yesterday. Rest of the forecast looks on
track.

***from previous discussion***
with offshore flow in place, a warming trend will continue with
very dry conditions lingering. The latest surface observations
show the thermal trough of low pressure just off the shoreline of
southern california, conducive for temperatures well above normal
for this time of year. Temperatures were tweaked slightly higher
across the area. With less winds over the coming days and
offshore flow lingering, the air mass will stagnate and likely
continue to warm into Wednesday or Thursday.

In wind-sheltered locations, cool overnight low temperatures will
linger for the next couple of night. Clear skies, a dry air mass,
and less wind to promote atmospheric mixing, radiative cooling
processes will be more efficient. With lancaster and saddleback
butte raws sitting in mid-to-upper 30s currently, a frost advisory
was added for this morning as temperatures should cool to between
32 and 35 degrees within an hour or two. Cool nights should be
expected for the central coast, interior valleys, and ojai and
santa ynez valleys for the next couple of nights.

Long term (fri-mon) 16 345 am.

A warm and dry air mass will remain over the area through
Saturday, then the trough of low pressure to the east will
retrograde back to the west. Both ECMWF and GFS solutions are
falling inline for the possibility of subtropical moisture
slipping into the area as it wraps around the counter-clockwise
flow around the trough. Subtropical moisture can be seen being
pulled up into arizona this morning. As the trough slides west,
this should transport some of this moisture back into the area.

There is a chance a 'wet' santa ana pattern could set up for the
weekend. Offshore flow and warmer than normal temperatures are
likely to continue, but some cooling is possible on Sunday due to
increased cloud coverage. While the overall synoptic pattern seems
in reasonable agreement, model solutions are struggling with the
finer details, including how much moisture will be transported
west into southern california and how strong the santa ana winds
could be. Another surge of santa ana winds should be expected with
advisory level north to northeast winds developing across the los
angeles and ventura county mountains, possibly spilling over into
the valley areas.

Aviation 16 1719z.

At 1700z at klax there was no marine layer nor any inversion.

Overall, high confidence in cavu conds for the next 48 hours.

The winds will be lighter than they were Monday and there will be
less turbulence and wind shear.

Klax... High confidence in cavu taf. The east wind component should
remain under 8 kt.

Kbur... High confidence in cavu taf.

Marine 16 919 am.

Outer waters... Good confidence in current forecast. There is a
20% chance of SCA level wind gusts this afternoon evening.

Inner waters north of point sal... High confidence in current
forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels
through Friday.

Inner waters south of point conception... The SCA has been
cancelled. Local gusts to 20-25 kt are possible.

Fire weather 16 925 am.

The red flag warnings for the coastal areas, as well as the
interior areas of san luis obispo and santa barbara counties will
be canceled for today. The winds will not be strong enough for red
flag, but very dry conditions will maintain elevated concerns. The
remaining red flag warnings will expire at 8pm this evening, with
no plans to extend them.

The gusty santa ana winds continue today, but have weakened and
shrunk in coverage from yesterday. Wind gusts between 30 and 50
mph should be expected in the wind prone valleys and mountains of
los angeles and ventura counties. The strongest winds will be in
the late morning and early afternoon hours. Relative humidities
will be slightly higher than yesterday, but still very dry with
minimums generally in the 5 to 10 percent range away from the
coast. The winds and humidities will improve slowly each day
through Thursday but remain locally breezy and dry. So while the
most extreme red flag conditions are not expected past today,
elevated fire weather conditions will remain. Winds will boost
some on Friday, but the conditions still look just under red flag
conditions.

This is remains a dangerous situation. The public needs to use
extreme caution with any potential fire ignition sources. Large
fires have been started by things like discarded cigarettes,
campfires, welding equipment, metallic weed wackers, and dragging
trailer chains. Be prepared for power outages and be ready to
evacuate if you live in the urban-wildland interface.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Wind advisory in effect until 3 pm pdt this afternoon for
zones 44>46-53-54-88-547. (see laxnpwlox).

Red flag warning in effect until 8 pm pdt this evening for
zones 244>246-253-254-288-547-548. (see laxrfwlox).

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (thu-mon)
Elevated fire weather conditions expected through the period with
locally gusty offshore winds, low humidities, warm temperatures,
and dry fuels are expected through at least Saturday. There is a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the mountains
and antelope valley late Saturday through late Sunday.

Public... Mw hall
aviation... Sweet
marine... Sweet
fire... Kittell
synopsis... Fisher
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 28 mi50 min 63°F2 ft
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 37 mi95 min S 1 G 1.9 67°F 1018.7 hPa
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 38 mi41 min S 2.9 G 4.1 65°F 63°F1018 hPa
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 42 mi41 min 67°F3 ft
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 45 mi31 min NNE 16 G 19 74°F 67°F1017.3 hPa42°F
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 46 mi31 min SW 5.8 G 7.8 66°F 67°F1018.7 hPa62°F
46262 48 mi41 min 67°F3 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Camarillo, Camarillo Airport, CA14 mi16 minE 1610.00 miFair82°F3°F5%1018.3 hPa
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA17 mi20 minE 910.00 miFair82°F10°F7%1017.4 hPa
Point Mugu, Naval Air Warfare Center, CA20 mi14 minENE 14 G 2210.00 miFair83°F14°F7%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from CMA (wind in knots)
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E18W13W7W8W3NE3NE3E3CalmNW3E4NE4N3CalmCalmE6--E12
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1 day agoNW3SW8SW10S7SW10SW8SW8W9W8W4CalmCalmCalmE4CalmN33E18
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2 days agoCalmW43SW7SW10SW10W7SW7SW5S5SW3SW3SW3CalmNE4NE3CalmCalmNE4E3NE3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Ventura, California
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Ventura
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:17 AM PDT     3.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:03 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:20 AM PDT     3.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:02 AM PDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:01 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:41 PM PDT     4.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:21 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:40 PM PDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.72.32.83.23.53.63.63.53.53.43.43.53.744.14.243.63.12.51.81.31

Tide / Current Tables for Port Hueneme, California
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Port Hueneme
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:18 AM PDT     3.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:02 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:17 AM PDT     3.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:02 AM PDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:01 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:42 PM PDT     4.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:21 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:37 PM PDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.82.32.83.23.53.63.63.53.53.43.43.53.744.14.243.63.12.51.81.31

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.