Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carpinteria, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 4:54PM Friday November 16, 2018 5:49 AM PST (13:49 UTC) Moonrise 2:32PMMoonset 12:57AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 203 Am Pst Fri Nov 16 2018
Today..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 14 seconds.
Tonight..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt in the morning, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sat night..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 13 seconds.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft.
PZZ600 203 Am Pst Fri Nov 16 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 09z...or 1 am pst, a 1024 mb high was centered in idaho, with a ridge extending to a 1025 mb high 300 nm W of seattle. A weak inverted trough of low pressure was along the ca coast. This pattern is expected to change little through Fri.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carpinteria, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 161203
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
403 am pst Fri nov 16 2018

Synopsis 16 315 am.

Weak offshore flow will keep dry and fairly warm weather across
the region today. Onshore flow will return Saturday, bringing
some cooling and a return of night through morning low clouds and
fog to coastal and some valley areas. Temperatures will be near
normal in most areas Sunday through Monday. Cooler weather is
expected for Tuesday and Wednesday. A couple of upper level
troughs moving into the west coast could bring some rain to
portions of the region late Wednesday into thanksgiving day.

Short term (tdy-sun) 16 335 am.

A fair amount of high cloudiness was spreading across the region
this morning, and will continue for much of the day. Partly cloudy
wording should cover the expected cloud conditions today. Some
patches of low clouds were developing off the central coast and to
the west of vtu county, but weak offshore gradients this morning
should keep clouds from moving onshore. Gradients between klax and
kdag are forecast to turn onshore this afternoon, for the first
time in over a week, since last Wednesday night. This should bring
some cooling to most areas today, especially to coastal and valley
areas. However, MAX temps should still be slightly above normal.

Heights and thicknesses will lower across the region tonight and
Saturday as a weak trough drifts into the region. Pressure
gradients will become increasingly onshore, from west to east and
also from south to north. Models show somewhat of a southerly
surge across the coastal waters tonight and Sat morning, and show
low level moisture increasing in coastal and some valley areas.

Expect low clouds and fog to push into coastal sections south of
pt. Conception tonight, and, at least initially, the fog may be
dense in some areas. Southerly flow should help push clouds around
pt. Conception and into the central coast, and possibly into the
san gabriel valley. After low clouds dissipate on sat, there
should be enough high clouds to make for a partly cloudy day. Max
temps should be down a few degrees in most areas.

An upper ridge will push into the west coast Sat night and Sunday,
causing heights to rise again. Low level gradients will turn
offshore again by Sun morning. Do not expect much in the way of
wind, but it may reduce any low cloud coverage Sat night sun
morning, and allow for a few degrees of warming in many areas sun.

Long term (mon-thu) 16 403 am.

The upper pattern is forecast to undergo fairly rapid changes
next week, with timing differences between models. This is leading
to below normal confidence in the forecast for much of next week.

It looks as though the upper ridge will hold across the region
sun night and early Mon and gradients will remain offshore. An
upper low will race toward the region Mon afternoon passing to the
south of the area Mon night, then moving into arizona on tue.

Models show surprisingly little moisture from this system across
the region, with mainly some mid and high level clouds Mon through
tue. The low cloud pattern will be tricky to forecast, and may be
totally wiped out by this fast moving system. Still, lowering
heights should bring a bit of cooling across northern areas for
mon, with little change elsewhere. Minor changes in MAX temps are
expected for tue, except there may be some warming in northern
areas due to height rises.

A stronger upper trough will move across the eastern pacific
and into the west coast Wed through thu. The ec is sharper and
faster with this system, bringing the trough axis through the
region Wed night. The 06z GFS shows a broader trough, with the
trough axis remaining well off the coast through thu. This is
different from the 00z run which was more similar to the ec. Have
introduced slight chance to chance pops to much of slo and sba
counties for late Wed through Thu morning, with a slight chance
extending into vtu county and much of l.A. County Wed night and
early thu. As mentioned, confidence is below normal, and the gfs
maintains dry weather through thu, but there is at least a slight
chance of rain across the region during that time. Lowering
heights and thicknesses and increased cloudiness should knock
several degrees off MAX temps wed, with temps down to normal or
slightly below normal levels.

Aviation 16 1140z.

At 0831z, there was a surface based inversion at klax. The top of
the inversion was around 800 feet with a temperature of 20c.

N of point conception... ExpectVFR conditions for most areas over
the next 24-hours. Except for vlifr lifr CIGS at ksmx after 08z.

There will be a 40% chance that similar CIGS could develop at ksbp
after 10z. Not expecting CIGS to develop at kprb.

S of point conception... Moderate confidence with 12z tafs with
lifr ifr CIGS possible for coastal tafs for l.A. County. There
will be a 40% chance for lifr ifr CIGS to develop at koxr after
10z. 10% chance for CIGS to develop across valley TAF sites
tonight into Saturday morning.

Klax... High confidence in the 12z TAF withVFR conds thru 08z then
moderate confidence for lifr ifr CIGS through 15z. There is a 30%
chance that CIGS could develop and scour out + - 2 hours from
current taf. There is a 10% percent chance of vlifr to lifr
conditions between 11z and 15z. Any east winds will likely remain
less than 7 knots.

Kbur... High confidence in the 12z TAF withVFR conds thru the pd.

Marine 16 132 am.

High confidence in winds staying below small craft advisory (sca)
through at least this weekend and probably through Monday. Patchy
dense fog will be possible off the central coast early this
morning. There is over a 50% chance for more widespread dense fog
occurring tonight into Saturday morning across the inner waters
from the central coast into the socal bight.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (sun-thu)
No significant hazards expected.

Public... Db
aviation... Kaplan
marine... Kaplan
synopsis... Db
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 9 mi73 min N 2.9 G 2.9 58°F 1015.4 hPa
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 17 mi28 min 63°F4 ft
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 20 mi39 min S 3.9 G 5.8 63°F 65°F1015.1 hPa62°F
46251 44 mi49 min 65°F4 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA16 mi56 minN 010.00 miFair46°F36°F68%1015 hPa
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA22 mi58 minNE 510.00 miFair51°F27°F39%1015.1 hPa

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmSE7SW5W7SW6SW9W9W9W5N4NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN3CalmCalmCalmSW5SW5SW7SW9W10W11W8W9W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE3CalmCalmCalmSW6SW8W6W10W7W7W7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmN3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, California (2)
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Rincon Island
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Fri -- 05:46 AM PST     4.28 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:31 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:30 AM PST     2.78 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:31 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:34 PM PST     3.86 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:52 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 11:17 PM PST     0.97 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.82.53.33.84.24.34.13.83.432.82.833.33.63.83.83.63.12.51.81.31

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, California
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:41 AM PST     4.27 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:31 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:23 AM PST     2.66 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:31 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:21 PM PST     3.80 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:52 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 11:06 PM PST     0.80 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.82.53.33.94.24.34.13.73.22.92.72.72.93.33.63.83.73.42.92.21.510.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.