Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carpinteria, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 5:14PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 1:14 AM PST (09:14 UTC) Moonrise 7:42AMMoonset 6:08PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 813 Pm Pst Mon Jan 15 2018
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 18 seconds. Patchy dense fog with vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 7 to 10 ft at 17 seconds. Patchy dense fog with vsby 1 nm or less in the morning.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 8 to 11 ft at 16 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Wed..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 7 to 9 ft at 15 seconds, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft at 15 seconds in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 6 to 8 ft at 14 seconds, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft at 14 seconds after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft after midnight. Chance of rain.
Fri..NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Combined seas 9 to 12 ft. Chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft.
PZZ600 813 Pm Pst Mon Jan 15 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 04z...or 8 pm pst...a 1023 mb high was located 500 nm sw of point conception. A large, long period nw swell will affect the waters tonight through Wed night. An even larger nw swell may affect the waters Thu through Sat.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carpinteria, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 160415
afdlox
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
815 pm pst Mon jan 15 2018

Synopsis
A low pressure system north of the area will increase the onshore
flow for more clouds and cooler temperatures into Tuesday. A
storm system will spread the possibility of precipitation from
the northwest Thursday evening, and into all areas on Friday. The
weekend will dry out with clearing skies and a warming trend as
offshore flow develops beneath high pressure aloft.

Short term (mon-thu)
satellite imagery showing considerable high clouds continuing to
stream into southwest california tonight as upper level flow
pattern has turned zonal. An upper level trough and associated
cold front will affect northern california tonight. This front
will move south and east washing out just north of our forecast
area. There is just a slight chance of a brief shower over the
foothills of NW slo county on Tuesday morning.

Otherwise just looking for quite a bit of mid and high level
clouds to continue to move into the forecast area through
Wednesday. A near neutral pressure gradient this evening combined
with a shallow marine inversion will bring the potential for some
low clouds and fog across coastal areas tonight into Tuesday
morning, with some of the fog being locally dense. As of 8 pm,
already seeing some low clouds and fog returning to the central
coast. Cooling trend to continue tomorrow, with slight warming
expected on Wednesday as a weak upper level ridge of high pressure
builds over the area.

Another upper level trough and associated cold front will approach
the central coast on Thursday, with a slight chance of rain by
afternoon for the slo county central coast. The threat of light
rain will overspread the forecast area (including montecito) on
Thursday night.

Long term (fri-mon)
the trough of low pressure, rotating around the aleutian low
pressure system, is scraping the subtropics today. The storm
system will inject some subtropical moisture and eject out toward
the west coast through Thursday. A frontal boundary will move
across the region between Thursday and Saturday. Pops have been
bumped up across the region, mainly between Thursday and Friday.

While moisture parameters are only about 1-2 standard deviations
above the mean, a colder air mass will arrive with this system.

Gusty winds will also likely develop with this storm system.

Rainfall amounts look to range between a tenth and a quarter of an
inch with local amounts up to one-half inch possible. With 700 mb
temperatures dropping to around -10 degrees celsius, snow levels
will likely fall to between 3500 and 4000 feet. Stay tuned, as
this system could cause snowfall at the top of the grapevine and
possibly into the foothills of the antelope valley.

High pressure aloft should develop for the remainder of next
weekend and warming and drying trend be in play.

Aviation 15 2340z.

At 2330z at klax, there was marine layer with a depth of nearly
600 ft. The top of the inversion was at 1000 feet with a
temperature of 18 degrees c.

The combination of weak onshore flow and a shallow marine layer
depth will bring a threat of ifr conditions to many of the
coastal TAF locations tonight but low confidence in occurrence
and timing due to presence of fairly thick higher level clouds.

There is a 20 percent chance of dense fog with lifr conditions
at klax, klgb, ksmo, koxr, kcma, ksmx, and ksbp later tonight
into early Tuesday morning.

Klax... Low confidence in the 00z TAF with arrival and timing of
ifr CIGS vsbys later tonight into Tuesday morning as there is a
chance of no low cigs. However, there is also a 20 percent chance
of lifr conditions late tonight into early Tuesday morning.

Kbur... Very high confidence in cavu taf.

Marine 15 800 pm.

For the outer waters, high confidence in current forecast. Winds
will most likely remain below small craft advisory (sca) levels
through Wed night, but could get close to SCA levels in some areas
during the afternoon and evening hours Tue and wed. A large long
period westerly swell will continue to affect the waters through
wed. SCA conditions for hazardous seas are expected through wed
night. After a very brief lull, another even larger NW swell will
build again Thu afternoon, increasing through at least fri, with
wave heights 18 to 20 ft possible. Additionally, winds could reach
sca levels Wed night through thu, and will likely reach sca
levels fri.

For the northern inner waters, high confidence in current forecast.

Sca conditions for hazardous seas will continue through wed
night. After slightly subsiding, seas will build to SCA levels
again thu, with SCA level winds as well fri.

For the waters south of point conception, winds will remain below
sca levels through thu. Seas may build to near or above 10 feet
across the western portions of the nearshore waters late tonight
through Tue night. Even larger seas are expected late in the week
and SCA levels winds are expected fri.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... High surf advisory in effect until 6 am pst Thursday for
zones 34-35-40-41-87. (see laxcfwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 3 am
pst Thursday for zones 645-670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (thu-mon)
possible winter weather issues for the i-5 near the grapevine
Friday night. Otherwise, no significant hazards expected.

Public... Gomberg hall
aviation... Gomberg
marine... Smith
synopsis... Stu hall
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 9 mi44 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1 53°F 1019.9 hPa
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 17 mi44 min 61°F5 ft
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 20 mi34 min W 7.8 G 9.7 58°F 60°F57°F
46251 44 mi44 min 60°F6 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA16 mi21 minWNW 47.00 miFair47°F46°F97%1020.1 hPa
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA22 mi23 minENE 55.00 miFog/Mist56°F53°F90%1019.4 hPa

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Last 24hrW3CalmCalmE3CalmNW4W3CalmSE7SE5S43SW7W8W4W4CalmW5W6CalmNE4CalmCalmW4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3N3W4CalmS5S4E4SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmN3Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmSW4W8W8W10W6W5W7W4CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:20 AM PST     2.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:40 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:03 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:34 AM PST     5.81 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:44 PM PST     -0.69 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:08 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:11 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:18 PM PST     New Moon
Tue -- 10:12 PM PST     3.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
32.52.22.32.73.54.45.25.75.85.24.22.81.40.2-0.5-0.7-0.20.61.72.73.43.73.6

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:19 AM PST     2.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:41 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:04 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:40 AM PST     5.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:50 PM PST     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:09 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:12 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:18 PM PST     New Moon
Tue -- 10:33 PM PST     3.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.92.42.22.32.73.34.24.95.45.55.14.22.91.50.3-0.4-0.6-0.30.41.32.333.43.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.