Wednesday, April25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carpinteria, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 7:40PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 11:15 AM PDT (18:15 UTC) Moonrise 3:28PMMoonset 3:56AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 833 Am Pdt Wed Apr 25 2018
Today..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 15 seconds.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming variable 10 kt or less after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 14 seconds.
Thu..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 13 seconds.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft dominant period 13 seconds.
Fri..Western portion, nw winds 10 to 15 kt becoming W 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Eastern portion, winds variable 10 kt or less becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 2 to 4 ft dominant period 11 seconds, building to 4 to 6 ft dominant period 11 seconds in the afternoon.
Fri night..Western portion, nw winds 20 to 25 kt becoming 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, W winds 5 to 10 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 11 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft.
PZZ600 833 Am Pdt Wed Apr 25 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 15z...or 8 am pdt...a 1035 mb surface high was about 500 nm south-southwest of point conception, while a 1013 mb low was near yuma az.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carpinteria, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 251626
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
926 am pdt Wed apr 25 2018

Synopsis 25 316 am.

A trough of low pressure will approach the west coast through
Friday before settling over the region through early next week.

This will result in a gradual cooling trend with increasing night
to morning low clouds through Friday. Near normal temperatures
will continue into early next week.

Short term (tdy-fri) 25 925 am.

Low clouds have already exited the la coastal areas except for
palos verdes and fog is rapidly dissipating north of paso robles.

Low clouds and patchy fog are rather entrenched along the central
coast and the ventura county coast so these areas will be slowest
to burn off today. Onshore pressure gradients are rather standard
for this type of pattern and expected to peak at 7mb this
afternoon from lax-dag. Locally gusty southwest winds to 45 mph
will be likely in the foothills and western areas of the antelope
valley today, but not enough to maintain wind advisory criteria so
have canceled that for today. Gradients shoot up over 9mb on
Thursday and MOS supports sustained winds of 20kt in lancaster
tomorrow which is more capable of reaching advisory levels then.

Remainder of the forecast remains on-track with warm inland
temperatures and cool coastal temperatures today.

***from previous discussion***
latest satellite imagery shows low clouds behaving just about as
expected for once, with clouds socked into all coastal areas and
now working into lower valleys. Patchy fog is likely across many
valley locations this morning. An upper level low pressure system
is also visible on satellite, about 1000 miles west of the region.

This system is expected to meander well off the coast today
before pushing east into the norcal coast Friday. Increasing
onshore flow and night to morning clouds is expected through early
Friday as a result of the approaching system. However, cooler air
aloft with the system will likely weaken the marine layer
inversion enough to wipe out low clouds north of point conception
Friday night. The increasing marine influence combined with h5
heights lowering from around 580 dm today to around 574 dm Friday
will support a continued gradual cooling trend away from the
coast. Patchy drizzle is possible (though left out of the forecast
for now) across eastern la county due to the deepening marine
layer and a vort MAX moving overhead early Friday. An advisory
level sundowner is likely for the sba south coast from goleta to
gaviota Thursday evening, with a more widespread and possibly
stronger sundowner expected Friday evening and night (with gfs
indicating both sba- smx and sba- smx around -5). Advisory level
northwest winds are also possible Friday evening and night in the
mountains near the i-5 corridor and western antelope valley.

Long term (sat-tue) 25 357 am.

Above average confidence in the forecast exists through this
weekend with below average confidence for early next week.

Northerly and likely advisory level winds may continue at times
through early next week for wind prone mountain and foothill
locations. Advisory level winds may surface in wind prone valleys
at times during this period, especially for santa clarita and san
fernando valleys. The gusty offshore flow and cold air advection
will help to vastly reduce if not completely eliminate night to
morning low clouds across the region. However, the current
forecast hangs onto some low clouds for la county with the
potential for an eddy which would help combat the offshore flow.

A second piece of upper level energy may help to reinforce the
trough of low pressure overhead early next week. This will keep
near to below normal temperatures across the region during this
time with gusty winds possible, especially across the mountains.

There is also a non- zero change for rain sometime early next
week, however given the time of year and continued inconsistency
in model runs, have kept pops below mentionable levels for now.

Aviation 25 0704z.

At 0230z at klax, the marine layer was near 1000 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was near 2300 feet with a temperature around
19 c.

Moderate confidence in tafs. There is a 30 percent chc that lifr
cigs may be ifr and vice versa.VFR transitions could be off by
+ - 90 minutes. Good confidence in tafs 20z-02z.

Klax... Moderate confidence in taf. There is a 20 percent chc of
lifr CIGS 11z-15z.VFR transition may be as late as 20z.

Kbur... Moderate confidence in TAF from 10z-17z, otherwise very
good confidence in taf. There is a 30 percent chance of lifr cigs
12z-16z. There is a 20 percent chc of no cigs.

Marine 25 258 am.

High confidence in winds and seas remaining below small craft
advisory levels across the waters through Wednesday. Winds will
likely increase Thursday afternoon through Saturday with at least
strong advisory level winds and possible gale force gusts along
with building short period seas.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (fri-tue)
No significant hazards expected.

Public... Boldt munroe
aviation... Rorke
marine... Rorke
synopsis... Rm
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 9 mi46 min SSW 5.1 G 6 53°F 1020.3 hPa
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 17 mi46 min 56°F2 ft
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 20 mi36 min SE 1.9 G 3.9 52°F 55°F1020.9 hPa
46251 44 mi46 min 58°F4 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA16 mi23 minSSE 66.00 miOvercast with Haze57°F50°F78%1019.7 hPa
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA22 mi25 minWSW 99.00 miOvercast59°F50°F72%1019.5 hPa

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS766W8W8W6W9W9W3CalmSE3E4E5SE5SE4SE3CalmNE3E4NE3SE4E4S4S6
1 day agoSE7S7SW6SW7W9W12W9W7W5CalmSE3E5SE5SE8E7E6SE5S5SW4CalmCalmCalmSE34
2 days agoS9S5SW7SW5W6W5W6SW3CalmE3S5E4E3CalmCalmSE8SE4E7E5E6SE4SE6SE8S6

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Rincon Island
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Wed -- 01:08 AM PDT     1.63 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:55 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:14 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:56 AM PDT     4.72 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:30 PM PDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:27 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:37 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:04 PM PDT     4.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.91.61.82.33.13.94.54.74.43.72.51.40.4-0.2-0.20.41.42.63.74.64.94.743

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Santa Barbara
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Wed -- 01:09 AM PDT     1.69 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:57 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:15 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:56 AM PDT     4.70 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:28 PM PDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:28 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:38 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:07 PM PDT     4.81 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.71.82.43.13.94.54.74.43.72.61.40.4-0.1-0.10.51.42.63.74.54.84.63.93

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.