Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Summerland, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 4:52PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 11:31 AM PST (19:31 UTC) Moonrise 3:10PMMoonset 3:29AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 848 Am Pst Tue Dec 18 2018
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect through late tonight...
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 7 to 10 ft at 16 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 6 to 8 ft at 15 seconds.
Wed..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 14 seconds.
Wed night..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 18 seconds.
Thu..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 6 to 8 ft at 17 seconds.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 17 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft.
PZZ600 848 Am Pst Tue Dec 18 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 16z...or 8 am pst, a 965 mb low was located in the gulf of alaska with a cold front extending south well off the northern ca coast. A 1026 mb high was over colorado, and a 1027 mb high was 450 nm sw of point conception. A very large northwest to westerly swell will gradually subside, but breaking waves are still possible at west facing harbor entrances north of point conception.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Summerland, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 181813
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
1013 am pst Tue dec 18 2018

Synopsis 18 742 am.

High pressure aloft will build in over the region the next
several days. A warming and drying trend with gusty northerly
winds will develop through Thursday with temperatures warming to
above seasonal levels from Wednesday to Friday. A cool down is
likely Friday, becoming more pronounced over the weekend into next
week.

Short term (tdy-thu) 18 925 am.

Yesterday's system has moved east and a ridge of high pressure is
quickly establishing itself along the west coast. Everything looks
on track for a sundowner tonight followed by santa anas Wed thu.

The sundowner tonight may be strong enough for a low end wind
advisory as models have come in a touch stronger with the
gradients and winds aloft. The santa anas however still look quite
weak and well below advisory levels in most areas. Temps will be
warming up, peaking Thu before onshore flow returns.

***from previous discussion***
synoptically, a 590 dm upper high west of baja ca will begin to
nudge closer to southern cal over the next few days as the upper
low that brought light rain to the region will move into texas
today. The combination of the upper ridge building overhead, and a
northerly surface gradient setting up late this afternoon or
evening, will bring gusty sub-advisory northerly winds across the
i-5 corridor and likely spread south across santa clarita and san
fernando valley this evening. A sub-advisory sundowner will set up
as well this evening across the western portion of the sba south
coast, mainly between refugio and gaviota this evening. Winds
should begin to diminish across the sba south coast by midnight.

The northerly winds across l.A. County will begin to shift to the
northeast as a weak offshore gradient sets up between northern
nevada and so cal. At this time not expecting advisory level santa
ana winds Wednesday morning, but there could be a few local gusts
to 35 mph in the usual wind prone valleys of l.A. And ventura
counties, and between 40 and 45 mph for the mountains. Winds will
remain weakly offshore Wednesday into Thursday. Offshore winds
should remain fairly weak Thursday morning as there will be less
cold air advection from the high desert.

As for temperatures go, a warming trend is expected through
Thursday with high pressure building aloft and offshore flow
through the period, especially for coast and coastal valleys.

High temps will be around normal for most areas, while Wed thu
will be several degrees warmer. It will be slightly cooler across
the interior areas such as interior slo county and the antelope
valley. The central coast will see some additional warming due to
the offshore winds from the san lucia mtns. Except by Thursday,
the seabreeze should kick in earlier making it cooler than
wednesay. There will continue to be periods of high clouds over
the forecast area today and once again on Thursday. The warmest
temps across l.A. And ventura coast and valleys will be on
Thursday with some valley locations reaching the lower 80s, and
possibly a few coastal sites.

Long term (fri-mon) 18 254 am.

Both the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement through Saturday
before becoming out of phase Sunday through Monday. On Friday, the
upper ridge will begin to breakdown as a weak upper trough moves
across california. Onshore flow will replace offshore flow from
Thursday. A cold front will fizzle out before it reaches the
northern portion of the forecast area Friday. Expect increasing
clouds and the start of a cooling trend. High temps will cool 3 to
8 degrees on Friday with highs still a few degrees above normal
across l.A. Ventura counties. Not much change for Saturday.

By Sunday the ec is advertising a weak upper disturbance moving
through the area, while the GFS has a weak ridge ahead of the next
upper trough. So GFS is showing a slight warming trend while the
ec is cooling slightly with a chance of rain. By Tuesday (xmas
day), the ec starts going in a different direction at that point
leading to low confidence as it's advertising a much deeper and
farther west upper low than the more "insider slider-ish" system
the GFS has. At the least there should be some cooling Tuesday
with cloudy conditions and a slight chance of showers. High temps
should be a bit cooler than normal for the time of year.

Aviation 18 1812z.

At 1800z... There was no marine inversion present at klax.

Generally hi confidence in the 18z tafs.VFR conditions can be
expected for the most part at the airfields through Wednesday,
except kprb where dense fog will develop again tonight.

Klax... Generally hi confidence in the 18z taf.VFR conditions are
expected thru the TAF period.

Kbur... Generally hi confidence in the 18z taf.VFR conditions are
expected thru the TAF period.

Marine 18 955 am.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. A very large
wnw swell will continue to move through the coastal waters
through today. This swell will affect west to northwest facing
harbors, including morro bay, where dangerous breaking waves will
be possible in the harbor entrance. In addition, breaking waves
will be possible in shallower water areas outside the typical surf
zone. Moderate-to-high seas will then persist Wednesday through
Thursday.

Small craft advisory (sca) winds will affect the southern outer
waters zones (pzz673 and pzz676) through tonight or Wednesday.

Another round of SCA winds will be possible for the entire outer
waters Friday and Saturday, with a 50%-60% chance of this
occurring.

For the inner waters, winds are expected to remain below sca
levels through Saturday.

Beaches 18 959 am.

Surf heights will slowly subside the rest of today through mid
week before another large west northwest swell moves into the area
for later in the week. High surf advisories are likely to be
needed for several days.

The coastal flood advisory has expired. Water could locally spill
into normally dry beaches, beach parking lots and harbor
walkways. There is a risk of large breaking waves across the
morro bay harbor entrance, which could capsize small boats.

Some of this large swell energy has affected areas south of point
conception, impacting west-facing beaches of la, ventura, and
southern sba counties. High surf advisories remain in effect for
this area through 10 pm pst this evening, where west-facing
beaches will generally see 6 to 10 foot breakers, with the
highest surf for the ventura county coast. Local sets to 12 feet
will likely continue across ventura harbor as well. Surf of 5 to 8
feet is expected for the santa barbara south coast, highest on
beaches that have some west exposure, such as rincon point.

High surf could continue at least through Wednesday morning for
all areas.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... High surf advisory in effect until 4 pm pst Thursday for
zones 34-35. (see laxcfwlox).

High surf advisory in effect until 10 pm pst this evening for
zones 39>41-87. (see laxcfwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 2 am
pst Thursday for zones 645-670. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 3 am
pst Wednesday for zone 650. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect until noon
pst today for zone 655. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm pst Wednesday for
zone 673. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pst Wednesday for
zone 676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (thu-mon)
An extended period of high surf and dangerous rip currents will
continue at all beaches through Thursday.

Public... Mw kaplan
aviation... Sweet
marine... Sweet
beaches... Sweet
synopsis... Hall stewart rk
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 5 mi56 min S 1.9 G 2.9 61°F 1024.2 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 17 mi52 min Calm G 3.9 1024.5 hPa
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 18 mi41 min 60°F6 ft
46251 44 mi62 min 63°F9 ft
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 47 mi52 min 16 G 21 1024.3 hPa

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA12 mi39 minSE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy62°F53°F73%1023.6 hPa

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Last 24hrSE7SE7S6S5W7W6CalmCalmCalmW4NE6CalmSE4CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmSE4
1 day agoW123W5SW7W11W6NW5CalmCalmN3CalmE3W3CalmE7N8N4NE3CalmCalmCalmNE5E5SE6
2 days agoW6W11W8W9W7W6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4SE8SE7

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, California
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Santa Barbara
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Tue -- 02:29 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:04 AM PST     5.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:59 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:01 PM PST     0.72 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:09 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:51 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:56 PM PST     3.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.92.63.64.45.15.45.14.53.62.51.60.90.70.91.52.22.93.43.53.32.92.31.8

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, California
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Rincon Island
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Tue -- 02:28 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:55 AM PST     5.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:58 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:52 PM PST     0.63 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:08 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:50 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:46 PM PST     3.44 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:54 PM PST     1.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.522.73.64.55.15.354.33.42.31.40.80.60.91.52.22.93.33.43.22.72.11.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.