Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Summerland, CA
May 1, 2024 1:23 PM PDT (20:23 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:06 AM Sunset 7:44 PM Moonrise 2:21 AM Moonset 12:39 PM |
PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 903 Am Pdt Wed May 1 2024
Today - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 11 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tonight - Western portion, W winds 15 to 20 kt becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, se winds 5 to 10 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 11 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Thu - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Thu night - NW winds 15 to 25 kt in the evening, becoming ne. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 9 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Fri night - W winds 15 to 25 kt in the evening, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft dominant period 8 seconds.
Sat - W winds 15 to 25 kt. Combined seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun - NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft.
PZZ600 903 Am Pdt Wed May 1 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 15z, or 8 am pdt, a 1030 mb high was centered 600 nm northwest of point conception. A 1006 mb thermal low was located just south of california. Gusty winds will continue into the weekend for the outer waters, with another chance of hazardous conditions for all the coastal waters starting Saturday afternoon.
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 15z, or 8 am pdt, a 1030 mb high was centered 600 nm northwest of point conception. A 1006 mb thermal low was located just south of california. Gusty winds will continue into the weekend for the outer waters, with another chance of hazardous conditions for all the coastal waters starting Saturday afternoon.
Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
(hide/show) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS66 KLOX 011825 AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1125 AM PDT Wed May 1 2024
SYNOPSIS
01/319 AM.
Ridging aloft building into eastern Pacific Ocean will continue to bring a general warming trend through Thursday. The warming trend may be muted across the southern coastal areas as onshore flow strengthens slightly. Stronger troughing over the West Coast over the weekend will bring some cooling along with a chance of rain. Otherwise, night through morning low clouds and fog will continue at times, remaining mostly intact for the southern portion of the area.
.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...01/846 AM.
***UPDATE***
Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate lower- elevation fog over Santa Barbara County dissipating, where the Dense Fog Advisory will expire at 9AM PDT today. Also, wind gusts are decreasing from the southern VTA County mountains to the Antelope Valley and vicinity, where the Wind Advisory will expire at 9AM PDT today. The forecast has been updated to account for the expiration of these advisories.
Otherwise, the forecast is well on-track, and no other changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.
***From Previous Discussion***
The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough digging south in zonal flow this morning as ridging aloft is building across the eastern Pacific Ocean. Onshore flow is strengthening across the southern portion of the area due to an eddy circulation in place near San Nicolas Island, but some weakening is starting to take place north of Point Conception. A low cloud field is stretching from Santa Barbara to the southeast into the San Pedro Channel and pushing into the Los Angeles and Ventura County valleys this morning, but the cloud field is quite disorganized with breaks in the clouds across the area.
A quite complex pattern is setting up over the next several days in the zonal flow. The latest forecast ensembles offer up a range of solutions with a wider spread as one heads south and farther inland. This will make for a difficult forecast over the coming days as offshore flow will wage a battle against the onshore regime. The most likely outcome will be the ridge aloft to the west asserting some influence for areas north of Point Conception. Onshore flow could end up being replaced by offshore flow on Thursday and bring some warming to San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties.
To the south, onshore flow will likely stay wedged in. Although it will be less classical of a synoptic pattern for May, it is very plausible that onshore flow could strengthen. Any offshore push will not be strong enough to dislodge the eddy circulation off the coast. With the ridge aloft adding some heating to the interior areas outside the marine influence, onshore pressure gradients will likely increase through the period. With 500 mb heights increasing into Thursday and onshore pressure gradients strengthening, clouds could end hugging the beaches over the coming days. The latest tabular forecast guidance and EPS ensemble members buy into this idea and keep Los Angeles and Ventura coastal terminals near persistence over the coming days. The forecast keeps a mention of low clouds across the South Coast of California into Friday.
By Friday morning, the marine layer induced low cloud field could end up becoming more entrenched as troughing along 160W ejects over the top of the ridge and drops down into the region. The marine layer depth should become more organized and deepen as onshore flow strengthens. The forecast ensembles agree that a cooling trend should take shape, establishing on Friday.
.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...01/435 AM.
The latest forecast ensemble agree a cooling trend will continue into Sunday as the semi-permanent Aleutian low pressure system kicks out an upper-level trough that will dig into the West Coast.
EPS, GEFS, and CMC ensemble members are leaning more toward an inside slider type trough of low pressure to affect the area over the weekend. The latest PoPs break away from NBM values to emphasize the highest rain chances for the northern areas and along the northern slopes Saturday night through Sunday morning.
Temperatures also break away from NBM values on Sunday to buy into better cooling, but EPS and GEFS ensemble means also lean toward Monday being equally as cool. Rainfall amounts will be light, on the order of a quarter of an inch or less, but there is a 15-20 percent chance that amounts could be higher than that in northwestern San Luis Obispo County, highest near Rocky Butte.
Snow levels should be above 6000 feet with this system, but there is still a great amount of uncertainty with the colder air mass aloft. Any changes to the west, and the system could be wetter and more cold air could be transported into the region. The latest forecast ensembles give the Interstate 5 Corridor a 20 percent chance of seeing accumulating snowfall between Sunday and Sunday night.
The main story could end up being the winds with this system as all of the EPS solutions suggest a gusty wind pattern developing across the mountains and desert and into some of the coastal areas, as well. Based upon the EPS wind gust means at terminals and the areal extent, the pattern seems to suggest gusty west to northwest winds on Saturday and Sunday, shifting to northwest to north into Monday.
Zonal flow should redevelop on Monday and a warming trend is looking to establish for early next week.
AVIATION
01/1800Z.
At 1746Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3400 ft deep with an inversion top at 4700 ft with a temperature of 15 C.
Low to moderate confidence in coastal TAF sites and KBUR and KVNY, with high confidence elsewhere. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours, and cigs may develop one category lower than forecast in for coastal sites in Ventura and L.A.
counties. There is a 30% chance of no cigs developing for KSMX, KSBA, KBUR, and KVNY.
KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours, and cigs as low as BKN008 are possible. High confidence in any east wind component remaining less than 6 kt.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes may be off by +/- 2 hours, with a 30% chance of no cigs developing tonight, and a 30% chance of cigs as high as BKN015.
MARINE
01/1123 AM.
For the outer waters, wind are currently below Gale Force at most location. This lull is expected to be short lived, with a 70% chance of gales redevelop this afternoon and tonight. Another lull in wind is possible Thursday morning, followed by an 80% chance of gales Thursday afternoon and night. Sunday afternoon and night there is a 40% chance of gales. At least SCA wind are expected much of the time through Sunday. SCA level seas are expected through Friday night with a 40-50% chance of returning Sunday.
For the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, SCA level winds are likely through tonight, followed by a 60% chance of returning Thursday afternoon and evening (20% chance of brief gales at this time).
SCA level seas will subside Thursday night, with a 20% chance of returning Sunday.
For the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA level winds will affect the western portions of the the channel this afternoon and evening, with a 20% chance of reaching the central/eastern portions.
Thursday onward, SCA level winds are generally expected to only impact the extreme western portions of the channel, until Saturday afternoon. Saturday afternoon through Sunday there is a 40-50% chance of widespread NW SCA winds for the entire channel, with the potential (20% chance) for gales on Sunday.
For the southern inner waters, there is a 20% chance of SCA level W to NW winds near Anacapa Island this evening.
Otherwise conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels until Saturday afternoon. Saturday afternoon through Sunday there is a 40-50% chance of widespread NW SCA winds for all the inner waters, with the potential (20% chance) for gales on Sunday.
BEACHES
01/1203 AM.
Persistent strong winds and outer water swell heights of 10-15 feet with a 10 second period will lead to high surf along the Central Coast (7-11 feet) and Ventura County beaches (4-7 feet).
Surf will be highest across west- and northwest-facing beaches.
There is a 40% chance of high surf advisory criteria lingering through the evening. NO coastal flooding is expected.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1125 AM PDT Wed May 1 2024
SYNOPSIS
01/319 AM.
Ridging aloft building into eastern Pacific Ocean will continue to bring a general warming trend through Thursday. The warming trend may be muted across the southern coastal areas as onshore flow strengthens slightly. Stronger troughing over the West Coast over the weekend will bring some cooling along with a chance of rain. Otherwise, night through morning low clouds and fog will continue at times, remaining mostly intact for the southern portion of the area.
.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...01/846 AM.
***UPDATE***
Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate lower- elevation fog over Santa Barbara County dissipating, where the Dense Fog Advisory will expire at 9AM PDT today. Also, wind gusts are decreasing from the southern VTA County mountains to the Antelope Valley and vicinity, where the Wind Advisory will expire at 9AM PDT today. The forecast has been updated to account for the expiration of these advisories.
Otherwise, the forecast is well on-track, and no other changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.
***From Previous Discussion***
The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough digging south in zonal flow this morning as ridging aloft is building across the eastern Pacific Ocean. Onshore flow is strengthening across the southern portion of the area due to an eddy circulation in place near San Nicolas Island, but some weakening is starting to take place north of Point Conception. A low cloud field is stretching from Santa Barbara to the southeast into the San Pedro Channel and pushing into the Los Angeles and Ventura County valleys this morning, but the cloud field is quite disorganized with breaks in the clouds across the area.
A quite complex pattern is setting up over the next several days in the zonal flow. The latest forecast ensembles offer up a range of solutions with a wider spread as one heads south and farther inland. This will make for a difficult forecast over the coming days as offshore flow will wage a battle against the onshore regime. The most likely outcome will be the ridge aloft to the west asserting some influence for areas north of Point Conception. Onshore flow could end up being replaced by offshore flow on Thursday and bring some warming to San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties.
To the south, onshore flow will likely stay wedged in. Although it will be less classical of a synoptic pattern for May, it is very plausible that onshore flow could strengthen. Any offshore push will not be strong enough to dislodge the eddy circulation off the coast. With the ridge aloft adding some heating to the interior areas outside the marine influence, onshore pressure gradients will likely increase through the period. With 500 mb heights increasing into Thursday and onshore pressure gradients strengthening, clouds could end hugging the beaches over the coming days. The latest tabular forecast guidance and EPS ensemble members buy into this idea and keep Los Angeles and Ventura coastal terminals near persistence over the coming days. The forecast keeps a mention of low clouds across the South Coast of California into Friday.
By Friday morning, the marine layer induced low cloud field could end up becoming more entrenched as troughing along 160W ejects over the top of the ridge and drops down into the region. The marine layer depth should become more organized and deepen as onshore flow strengthens. The forecast ensembles agree that a cooling trend should take shape, establishing on Friday.
.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...01/435 AM.
The latest forecast ensemble agree a cooling trend will continue into Sunday as the semi-permanent Aleutian low pressure system kicks out an upper-level trough that will dig into the West Coast.
EPS, GEFS, and CMC ensemble members are leaning more toward an inside slider type trough of low pressure to affect the area over the weekend. The latest PoPs break away from NBM values to emphasize the highest rain chances for the northern areas and along the northern slopes Saturday night through Sunday morning.
Temperatures also break away from NBM values on Sunday to buy into better cooling, but EPS and GEFS ensemble means also lean toward Monday being equally as cool. Rainfall amounts will be light, on the order of a quarter of an inch or less, but there is a 15-20 percent chance that amounts could be higher than that in northwestern San Luis Obispo County, highest near Rocky Butte.
Snow levels should be above 6000 feet with this system, but there is still a great amount of uncertainty with the colder air mass aloft. Any changes to the west, and the system could be wetter and more cold air could be transported into the region. The latest forecast ensembles give the Interstate 5 Corridor a 20 percent chance of seeing accumulating snowfall between Sunday and Sunday night.
The main story could end up being the winds with this system as all of the EPS solutions suggest a gusty wind pattern developing across the mountains and desert and into some of the coastal areas, as well. Based upon the EPS wind gust means at terminals and the areal extent, the pattern seems to suggest gusty west to northwest winds on Saturday and Sunday, shifting to northwest to north into Monday.
Zonal flow should redevelop on Monday and a warming trend is looking to establish for early next week.
AVIATION
01/1800Z.
At 1746Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3400 ft deep with an inversion top at 4700 ft with a temperature of 15 C.
Low to moderate confidence in coastal TAF sites and KBUR and KVNY, with high confidence elsewhere. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours, and cigs may develop one category lower than forecast in for coastal sites in Ventura and L.A.
counties. There is a 30% chance of no cigs developing for KSMX, KSBA, KBUR, and KVNY.
KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours, and cigs as low as BKN008 are possible. High confidence in any east wind component remaining less than 6 kt.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes may be off by +/- 2 hours, with a 30% chance of no cigs developing tonight, and a 30% chance of cigs as high as BKN015.
MARINE
01/1123 AM.
For the outer waters, wind are currently below Gale Force at most location. This lull is expected to be short lived, with a 70% chance of gales redevelop this afternoon and tonight. Another lull in wind is possible Thursday morning, followed by an 80% chance of gales Thursday afternoon and night. Sunday afternoon and night there is a 40% chance of gales. At least SCA wind are expected much of the time through Sunday. SCA level seas are expected through Friday night with a 40-50% chance of returning Sunday.
For the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, SCA level winds are likely through tonight, followed by a 60% chance of returning Thursday afternoon and evening (20% chance of brief gales at this time).
SCA level seas will subside Thursday night, with a 20% chance of returning Sunday.
For the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA level winds will affect the western portions of the the channel this afternoon and evening, with a 20% chance of reaching the central/eastern portions.
Thursday onward, SCA level winds are generally expected to only impact the extreme western portions of the channel, until Saturday afternoon. Saturday afternoon through Sunday there is a 40-50% chance of widespread NW SCA winds for the entire channel, with the potential (20% chance) for gales on Sunday.
For the southern inner waters, there is a 20% chance of SCA level W to NW winds near Anacapa Island this evening.
Otherwise conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels until Saturday afternoon. Saturday afternoon through Sunday there is a 40-50% chance of widespread NW SCA winds for all the inner waters, with the potential (20% chance) for gales on Sunday.
BEACHES
01/1203 AM.
Persistent strong winds and outer water swell heights of 10-15 feet with a 10 second period will lead to high surf along the Central Coast (7-11 feet) and Ventura County beaches (4-7 feet).
Surf will be highest across west- and northwest-facing beaches.
There is a 40% chance of high surf advisory criteria lingering through the evening. NO coastal flooding is expected.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 | 5 mi | 47 min | SW 8.9G | 58°F | 29.88 | |||
| 46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA | 17 mi | 43 min | WSW 7.8G | 55°F | 57°F | 29.85 | 54°F | |
| 46251 | 44 mi | 27 min | 57°F | 58°F | 4 ft | |||
| 46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA | 47 mi | 43 min | NW 19G | 53°F | 53°F | 29.86 | 50°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSBA SANTA BARBARA MUNI,CA | 13 sm | 30 min | var 05 | 6 sm | Clear | Haze | 66°F | 57°F | 73% | 29.86 |
Tide / Current for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (hide/show) Help
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California, Tide feet
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California, Tide feet
Los Angeles, CA,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE