Saturday, December15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Santa Barbara, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 4:51PM Friday December 14, 2018 9:11 PM PST (05:11 UTC) Moonrise 1:04PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 51% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 824 Pm Pst Fri Dec 14 2018
Tonight..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 15 seconds.
Sat..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 15 seconds, building to 4 to 6 ft at 15 seconds in the afternoon.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 14 seconds.
Sun..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 13 seconds.
Sun night..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 13 seconds, building to 5 to 7 ft at 18 seconds after midnight. Chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 8 to 11 ft. Rain likely in the morning, then chance of showers.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 8 to 11 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 6 to 8 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft.
PZZ600 824 Pm Pst Fri Dec 14 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 03z...or 7 pm pst, a 980 mb low was north of seattle with a cold front extending S of the low and offshore over the central coast. The front will shift inland late tonight. A large west to nw swell will affect the coastal waters Sun night through Tue, with potentially dangerous conditions for west and nw facing harbor entrances.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Santa Barbara city, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 150431
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
831 pm pst Fri dec 14 2018

Synopsis 14 754 pm.

Mostly cloudy conditions will begin to clear later tonight as a
weak frontal system moves out of the area. Sunshine is expected
on Saturday with a few degrees of warming. Another trough is
expected to approach on Sunday bringing clouds and rain chances to
the area through Monday, with the highest likelihood of rain
north of point conception. Dry and warmer conditions will return
on Tuesday.

Short term (fri-mon) 14 822 pm.

High clouds continue to stream into the area from the southwest
this evening in advance of a weak cold front moving through
central california this evening. Later tonight, this band of
high clouds is expected to shift eastward out of our area.

Along the central coast, this front has fallen apart as expected,
with any rain threat remaning north of slo county. Automated rain
gauges showing just light rain accumulations from montery bay
northward. Otherwise some onshore flow and low level moisture
will likely bring some low clouds to areas north of point
conception.

Mild temperature readings expected for the weekend as weak
offshore flow prevails for areas south of point conception.

Mostly sunny skies expected on Saturday, then some increasing
high clouds by Sunday in advance of an approaching storm system.

*** from previous discussion ***
next system for Sunday night and Monday is a little stronger and
chances are high that at least sb slo counties will get rain from
it as the trough digs south much farther than tonight's system.

While there is some southerly flow out ahead of it Sunday
afternoon and night, by the time the front arrives it's mostly
with westerly flow and that will significantly weaken it as it
rounds pt conception. So while chances still look favorable for at
least some rain down to ventura and even la counties any amounts
will be really light. Northern areas could see a half inch to as
much as an inch in the slo coastal hills but south of sb amounts
will drop off to a quarter inch or less.

Long term (tue-fri) 14 125 pm.

Models still advertising a building ridge over california most of
next week with some light to occasionally moderate offshore flow,
especially Wed thu. Those look to be the warmest days with the
strongest offshore gradients and warmest air mass. If current
model solutions hold temps will likely climb into the lower 80s
many coast valley locations in la ventura counties and 70s
elsewhere. It appears to be more of a northerly gradient as
opposed to northeast but either way it should be warm and dry
across the area with some gusty north to northeast winds at
times. Gradients expected to start trending onshore Friday with a
few degrees of cooling but still well above normal.

Aviation 14 1759z.

At 1730z... There was no marine inversion present at klax.

Generally hi confidence in the 18z tafs, except moderate confidence
at best for kprb, ksbp and ksmx due to MVFR CIGS expected at times
mainly this afternoon through late tonight except thru mid morning
sat at kprb. The timing of the onset and clearing of the low clouds
may be off + - 1 to 2 hours and may be intermittent at best.

Otherwise,VFR conditions can be expected at the airfields through
sat morning.

Klax... Hi confidence in the 18z TAF withVFR conditions expected
thru Sat afternoon.

Kbur... Hi confidence in the 18z TAF withVFR conditions expected
thru Sat morning.

Marine 14 758 pm.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. A moderately
large northwest swell across the coastal waters will persist
through Saturday night, then diminish some Sunday. Hazardous seas
will likely persist for periods of time across outer and northern
coastal waters through Saturday night.

Between Sunday night and Tuesday, a very large wnw swell is
expected to build into the coastal waters and affect west to
northwest facing harbors, including morro bay. Ventura harbor
could also be affected on Monday through at least Tuesday as some
of the energy from the swell filters into the southern california
bight. Moderate-to-high seas will then persist through Wednesday.

Otherwise, winds should remain below small craft advisory (sca)
levels through Tue except for a 60% chance of SCA level gusts at
times for the southern two outer waters zones (pzz673 and pzz676)
Monday night through Tuesday.

Beaches 14 830 pm.

High surf conditions will continue across the central coast
this weekend. From Sunday night through Tuesday, a very large
long period west-northwest swell (290 degrees) will impact
the central coast, likely bringing very large and potentially
damaging surf during that time. As a result, high surf warnings
have been posted for the central coast due to the high
confidence in the event. Surf heights of 18 to 25 feet are
expected across the central coast, with local sets up to 28
feet possible. Potential impacts include beach erosion, very
strong rip currents, possible damage to piers and coastal
structures, as well as large breaking waves into morro bay
harbor which could capsize small boats.

Due to the long period nature of this swell energy (19 to 20
seconds), some of this large swell energy is expect to wrap
around into areas south of point conception impacting west
facing beaches of la, ventura, and southern sba counties.

High surf advisory conditions are likely for the west facing
beaches, which was highlighted with a beach hazards statement for
these areas. The highest surf south of point conceptions is
expected to be focused across west facing beaches of ventura
county where 8 to 12 foot breakers will be common. Local sets
to 15 feet are possible across ventura harbor, with a 20 percent
chance of needing to be upgraded to high surf warning thresholds.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... High surf advisory in effect until 9 pm pst Sunday for zones
34-35. (see laxcfwlox).

High surf warning in effect from 9 pm Sunday to 9 am pst
Tuesday for zones 34-35. (see laxcfwlox).

Beach hazards statement in effect from late Sunday night
through Tuesday evening for zones 39>41-87. (see laxcfwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect from 6 am
Saturday to 3 am pst Sunday for zones 645-670-673. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (mon-fri)
Very high surf and dangerous rip currents are expected Monday and
Tuesday.

Public... Gomberg mw
aviation... Sirard
marine... Smith
beaches... Gomberg
synopsis... Smith
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 1 mi96 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 59°F 1020.2 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 13 mi42 min N 1.9 G 1.9 1020.3 hPa
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 22 mi51 min 60°F3 ft
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 42 mi42 min 3.9 G 5.8
46251 45 mi42 min 62°F4 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA7 mi19 minWNW 510.00 miFair49°F46°F93%1019.9 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA24 mi17 minN 010.00 miFair48°F46°F94%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW6NE3CalmE3E5CalmCalm3E5S4SE53W12W8W4N3CalmNE5W5
1 day agoE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3CalmCalmCalmS5SE5SE3SW6CalmCalmE4W3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW5Calm4NW5CalmCalm4Calm3NE3W3CalmSE5SE8SE10SE11SE9SE9S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.