Tuesday, May22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Santa Barbara, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 8:01PM Tuesday May 22, 2018 8:29 PM PDT (03:29 UTC) Moonrise 1:22PMMoonset 1:59AM Illumination 58% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 213 Pm Pdt Tue May 22 2018
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Wed..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 9 seconds.
Thu..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 11 seconds.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 11 seconds.
Fri..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds. S swell 2 ft.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft.
PZZ600 213 Pm Pdt Tue May 22 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 20z...or 1 pm pdt...a 1023 mb high was located 1100 nm west of point conception and a 1006 mb low was near las vegas. A long period southerly swell will remain over the waters into Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Santa Barbara city, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 230309
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
809 pm pdt Tue may 22 2018

Synopsis 22 745 pm.

Overnight low clouds and patchy fog will continue west of the
mountains through early next week. Gusty onshore winds will
affect the mountains and antelope valley during this time. A
warming trend will raise temperatures to above normal for next
week.

Short term (tue-fri) 22 804 pm.

***update***
a deep marine layer will remain in place over the area tonight
into Wednesday. As the upper closed over the region weakens
slightly tonight, the marine layer may be suppressed somewhat.

However, low clouds are expected to reform and push inland
overnight, with clouds over the coast and valleys all the way to
the western mountain slopes by Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, gusty
southwest winds will continue over the antelope valley, with
local gusts between 40 to 45 mph likely through late in the
evening. The other issue of note is elevated surf caused by a long
period south swell moving through the coastal waters. Surf up to
6 feet in height with occasional larger sets is expected through
Thursday, along with strong rip currents. The highest waves and
strongest currents will be on south facing beaches such as zuma
beach and port hueneme.

***from previous discussion***
a weak pop up ridge is expected over the region with 500 mb
heights rising to around 578 dm by Wednesday afternoon. A piece
of energy is expected to pinch off a trough of low pressure
currently positioned over the gulf of alaska and move into central
california Friday. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this feature
Thursday will support a modest increase in onshore flow with
lowering heights north of point conception. The increase in
onshore flow will likely maintain low clouds well into Thursday
afternoon for many coastal and valley areas. A 100+ knot jet
streak at 300 mb may help provide enough lift for drizzle or a few
light showers for coastal and valley areas north of point
conception (especially slo county). Have opted to leave out of the
forecast for now (tho did bump up pops) as there remains some
uncertainty of the eventual track of the system. Drizzle can't be
ruled out further south either, especially the climatologically
favored foothills and lower coastal slopes of eastern la county.

Temperatures will warm some, especially away from the marine layer
through Wednesday before gradually cooling through Friday, first
due to increasing onshore flow, then lowering 500 mb heights.

Locally gusty onshore winds will continue for the foothills of the
antelope valley each afternoon and early evening.

Long term (sat-tue) 22 227 pm.

Moderate confidence exists in the extended forecast mainly due to
uncertainty with the exact position and associated impacts of a
trough of low pressure expected to pass through the region.

The fastest model solutions have trended the core of the upper
level low closer to southwest california. Temperatures were
trended downward slightly (and could be lowered further by future
shifts) as a result of the low's proximity. This is unusually cold
feature for this time of year. Night to morning low clouds may
have trouble forming over the weekend as a result, especially
north of point conception. Will also keep an eye on the potential
for a few showers or thunderstorms over the mountains mainly
Saturday due to the low's proximity. Advisory level sundowner
winds are possible for western portions of the sba south coast
this weekend with gusty also possible in the la and vta mountains
near the i-5 corridor.

The trough of low pressure is expected to exit into the four
corners by early next week. This will support increasing 500 mb
heights and weakening onshore flow, especially from the south. The
resulting lower marine layer and likely better clearing with
support a gradual warming trend with widespread 80s away from the
coast.

Aviation 23 0025z.

At 22z, there is a weak marine inversion at klax based at 4100
feet. The top of the inversion was at 5500 feet with a
temperature of 15 degrees celsius.

Overall, moderate confidence in coastal valley tafs and high
confidence in desert tafs. The inversion will lower some and burn
off time should occur earlier in the day. However, there is
reduced confidence in timing of both MVFR CIGS formation this
evening and dissipation Wednesday late morning-afternoon. Patchy
ifr CIGS are expected north of pt. Conception.

Klax... Moderate confidence in 00z taf. MVFR CIGS forecast to return
07z but may differ up to 2 hrs from TAF time. CIGS expected to
scatter out by 22z but timing is lower confidence. There is a 20%
chance of ifr CIGS occurring.

Kbur... Moderate confidence in 00z taf. MVFR CIGS forecast to
return 08z but may differ up to 2 hrs from TAF time. Cigs
expected to rise toVFR level by 17z but timing may be delayed up
to 2 hrs. 40% chance of ifr conditions overnight.

Marine 22 735 pm.

For the outer waters, high confidence in current forecast. Winds
and seas will remain below small craft advisory (sca) levels
through Thursday. By late Friday into Saturday, there is a 70%
chance of SCA level northwest winds. There will be a mixed swell
with shorter periods from the NW and long periods from the s.

For the inner waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. For the waters north of point sal, winds and seas will
remain below SCA levels through Thursday then there is a 60%
chance of SCA level winds beginning late Friday into Saturday.

For the waters south of point conception, winds and seas will
remain below SCA levels through Thursday. Late Friday into
Saturday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds, especially
across western sections.

A long period southerly swell will continue to move through the
coastal waters through Thursday. Locally rough conditions may
occur at local harbor entrances, especially those with southerly
exposure.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Beach hazards statement in effect through Thursday evening
for zones 40-41-87. (see laxcfwlox).

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (fri-tue)
Strong rip currents and elevated surf will linger at south-facing
beaches across los angeles and ventura counties through Thursday.

Advisory level sundowner winds are possible for western portions
of the sba south coast this weekend.

Public... Munroe smith
aviation... Smith
marine... Eb smith
synopsis... Stu smith
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 1 mi53 min WSW 7 G 8.9 58°F 1012.9 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 13 mi29 min WSW 12 G 16 55°F 58°F1013.5 hPa
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 22 mi29 min 60°F3 ft
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 42 mi29 min WNW 18 G 19 55°F1012.7 hPa (+0.0)
46251 45 mi59 min 61°F5 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA7 mi36 minSW 310.00 miFair59°F52°F78%1012.4 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA24 mi34 minW 810.00 miFair55°F48°F77%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3NE6NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NE3CalmSE4SE6S8S8SW4SW8W6SW8SW8SW8W7SW7SW3
1 day agoW3NE10NW3N3CalmNE5NW3W3CalmCalmN3Calm3S7SW8W1056S7S5S643S4
2 days agoSE7E5NE8CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmSE6SW5SW5S7SW7S7W9W113SW6SW7S6

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:58 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:03 AM PDT     4.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:51 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:07 AM PDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:21 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:15 PM PDT     4.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:59 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.93.33.94.34.54.33.82.91.910.300.20.81.62.73.64.34.64.543.42.82.3

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:57 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:01 AM PDT     4.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:50 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:06 AM PDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:20 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:09 PM PDT     4.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:58 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:55 PM PDT     2.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.93.43.94.34.44.23.72.81.80.90.2-0.10.10.71.62.73.64.34.54.43.93.32.72.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.