Friday, February15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Santa Barbara, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 5:43PM Friday February 15, 2019 11:41 AM PST (19:41 UTC) Moonrise 2:34PMMoonset 4:11AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 813 Am Pst Fri Feb 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 3 pm pst this afternoon through late tonight...
Today..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 12 seconds building to 8 to 11 ft dominant period 12 seconds in the afternoon. Showers.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 25 kt with local gusts to 30 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt late. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 10 seconds. Showers likely in the evening, then chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming W 15 to 25 kt with local gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 7 to 10 ft dominant period 14 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Sat night..W to nw winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Combined seas 7 to 10 ft dominant period 15 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 12 seconds. Chance of showers.
Sun night..W to nw winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt late. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 15 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Mon..W to nw winds 10 to 20 kt early, becoming 15 to 25 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft.
Tue..W to nw winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft.
PZZ600 813 Am Pst Fri Feb 15 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 15z...or 7 am pst, a 990 mb surface low was located 300 nm W of portland with a cold front extending south into the southwestern ca coastal waters. This front will move slowly through the coastal waters through this evening.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Santa Barbara city, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 151810 aaa
afdlox
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
1010 am pst Fri feb 15 2019
updated aviation discussion

Synopsis 15 747 am.

Showers are expected to continue through the holiday weekend as a
broad trough of low pressure lingers over the west. A colder air
mass will move through Sunday, bringing temperatures below
normals into early next week.

Short term (tdy-sun) 15 926 am.

A fairly weak but much colder weather system is moving into the
area today with light precip falling as far south and east as
santa barbara this morning. Air mass has dried up considerably
from yesterday with precipitable water values over an inch lower.

Because of this precip amounts today will be on the light side,
especially south of pt conception where orographic enhancement
will be minimal due to the primarily west northwest flow
accompanying the front. There is a very strong upper level jet
overhead, just over 200kt near the slo monterey county line
driving this system to the east. So showers are expected to spread
east through ventura and la counties by this afternoon and then
taper off tonight. Primary concern with this system and through
the weekend will be the lowering snow levels and potentially
creating delays and closures over lower elevation mountain roads
such as the grapevine over interstate 5. North northwest winds
will also be increasing, especially the latter half of the weekend
so the combination of the cold temps and winds will create
dangerously low wind chills in the mountains.

***from previous discussion***
breezy to windy conditions will develop across the interior
portions later today as the surface pressure gradient tightens
with the approaching cold front. Windy conditions are likely
across the antelope valley and into the mountains. A wind
advisory was added for the antelope valley from late this morning
through late this evening. Isolated gusts to 55 mph are possible
in the foothill portions. A wind advisory might be needed for the
interior san luis obispo county later today, but model solutions
offer up differing ideas as far as wind strength across the area.

The mountains will be windy at times but will be covered in a
winter weather advisory as snow showers will spread in later today
with the cold front.

A much colder air mass will move into the area this afternoon and
tonight behind the front. Snow levels above 5000 feet early this
morning will drop rapidly this afternoon and early this evening to
near 3500 feet by late this afternoon and early this evening. 700
mb temperatures will crash to near -11 degrees celsius around 8
pm tonight. Snow showers will cause accumulations to develop
rapidly later today and tonight. Generally between 3 and 7 inches
of snow is forecast above 5000 feet from this afternoon through
midday Saturday. Snow accumulations up to 2 inches are possible on
the grapevine as early as this evening but more likely late
tonight and into Saturday morning.

For those having travel plans today, it is advised to plan your
travel accordingly as winds and snow could create travel delays
into and out southern california, especially across mountain
roadways. Stay tuned to the latest road conditions and weather
forecasts to make your destination safely.

Broad troughing will remain over the california coast through the
weekend and into early next week. A cold and showery weather
pattern is likely to continue with snow levels likely falling into
the foothill areas of the valley areas later this weekend. Local
snow levels could fall into the 1500 to 2000 foot elevation,
especially north of point conception. Over the weekend, a winter
weather advisory could need to be extended or reissued for the
mountains, and possibly extended for the san luis obispo county
valleys, and cuyama and antelope valleys. Snow showers cannot be
ruled out for the foothills of the central coast and santa ynez
valley and the higher elevations of the valley areas of los
angeles and ventura counties.

Much colder temperatures will develop by Sunday and Sunday night.

Foothill and interior portions will be lucky to make it to 50
degrees Sunday, and most coastal and valley locations will
struggle to make it into the lower to mid 50s. Temperatures have
been trended colder in the latest forecast accordingly. Overnight
low temperatures are likely to be in the 30s across most coastal
and valley areas Sunday night. Temperatures falling into the teens
are likely across the mountains and portions of the antelope
valley. A few single digit or negative readings cannot be ruled
out for mountain locations such as big pines and lockwood valley.

Long term (mon-thu) 15 411 am.

A northerly flow aloft will likely remain in place into middle and
late next, piping colder arctic air south. Temperatures below
normal should be expected across the region. Another cold trough
of low pressure is possible for late next week. Precipitation
amounts should be light with late week system.

Aviation 15 1808z.

At 1730z at klax... There was no marine inversion present.

Generally moderate confidence in the 18z tafs, however there is hi
confidence in low clouds and lowered vsbys to MVFR with scattered
showers at times through tonight for kprb, ksbp and ksmx, and
through later tonight for ksba, kcma, koxr, ksmo, klax, klgb, kbur
and kvny. The timing of lowering CIGS vsby and changes between
flight cats may be off + - 1 to 3 hours. There is also a small
chance (20%) that conditions could briefly deteriorate to ifr at
times with any heavier showers. Otherwise,VFR conditions can be
expected through Sat morning.

For kwjf and kpmd, there is moderate to hi confidence in the tafs.

Vfr conditions should prevail thru Sat morning. However there is a
small chance (20%) of MVFR CIGS vsbys may occur at times with
scattered showers this afternoon and this evening. Otherwise,VFR
conditions should prevail thru Sat morning. Gusty mainly SW winds
should prevail thru Sat morning as well.

Lax... Generally moderate confidence in the 18z taf, however there is
hi confidence in low clouds and lowered vsbys to MVFR with scattered
showers at times this afternoon and this evening. The timing of
lowering CIGS vsby and changes between flight cats may be off + - 1
to 3 hours. There is also a small chance (20%) that conditions could
briefly deteriorate to ifr at times with any heavier showers.

Otherwise,VFR conditions can be expected through Sat afternoon.

Kbur... Generally moderate confidence in the 18z taf, however there
is hi confidence in low clouds and lowered vsbys to MVFR with
scattered showers at times this afternoon and this evening. The
timing of lowering CIGS vsby and changes between flight cats may be
off + - 1 to 3 hours. There is also a small chance (20%) that
conditions could briefly deteriorate to ifr at times with any
heavier showers. Otherwise,VFR conditions can be expected through
sat morning.

Marine 15 815 am.

Decent confidence in predominantly SCA level conds across the
outer waters and northern inner waters through the weekend. While
winds were mostly below SCA levels in these areas this morning,
seas were at or above SCA thresholds. Winds will likely reach sca
levels in these areas this afternoon. SCA conds are expected to
continue either due to winds or seas through at least Mon night
across the outer waters, and possibly through tue. Across the
northern inner waters, winds and seas should drop below SCA levels
sun night but may increase to SCA levels again wed.

Across the southern inner waters and the sba channel, winds will
increase to SCA levels this afternoon and continue through late
tonight, especially across western portions. SCA level winds are
expected during the afternoon and evening hours Sat thru mon.

Seas may rise to above SCA levels Sat and persist thru Sat night.

A large long period NW swell will move into the coastal waters
over the weekend. The combination of large swell and large steep
wind waves will create dangerous seas across much of the coastal
waters over the holiday weekend.

Beaches 15 815 am.

An increasing northwest swell in the coastal waters will likely
cause an increase in surf on central coast beaches later today
through the weekend. There is a chance that surf could reach high
surf advisory levels on west facing beaches of vtu and l.A.

Counties late Sat into sun. With increasingly high astronomical
tides, there is the potential for some minor coastal flooding on
central coast beaches over the weekend.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... High surf advisory in effect until 4 pm pst Sunday for zones
34-35. (see laxcfwlox).

Winter weather advisory in effect from 3 pm this afternoon to
noon pst Saturday for zones 52>54. (see laxwswlox).

Wind advisory in effect until 10 pm pst this evening for zone
59. (see laxnpwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pst Monday for zone
645. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect from 3 pm this afternoon to 3
am pst Saturday for zones 650-655. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pst Tuesday for
zones 670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (sun-thu)
Low elevation snow is possible Sunday potentially creating
impacts on interstate 5 and other roads through the mountains.

Public... Mw hall
aviation... Sirard
marine... Db
beaches... Db
synopsis... Hall delerme
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 1 mi65 min N 4.1 G 6 53°F 1020.4 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 13 mi41 min S 7.8 G 7.8 57°F 58°F1020.5 hPa (+0.8)52°F
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 22 mi50 min 56°F5 ft
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 42 mi61 min 10 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA7 mi48 minE 53.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist54°F50°F87%1019.9 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA24 mi46 minE 55.00 miFog/Mist50°F48°F94%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8W10W14
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W5W10N4W6NE4NW4W5CalmCalmNW3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE7E5
1 day agoE13
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2 days agoSE10SE10SE7SE10E8E6E7E6E6E6E5E6E5E5E5E6E7SE13E15SE9
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Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.