Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 3:39 PM   Moonset 3:17 AM

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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 737 Pm Pdt Sat May 18 2024
Tonight - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds. Sun - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds. Sun night - W winds 15 to 20 kt in the evening, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds. Mon - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 10 seconds. Mon night - NW winds 15 to 20 kt in the evening, becoming 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 9 seconds. Tue - NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft. Wed - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft.

PZZ600 737 Pm Pdt Sat May 18 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 02z, or 7 pm pdt, a 1032 mb surface high was centered 1100 nm northwest of point conception and a 1002 mb low was centered in southeast california.

FXUS66 KLOX 190331 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 831 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
18/830 PM.

Low clouds will continue to be a staple of the forecast for coast and valleys through Monday, and struggling to clear each afternoon. Breezy onshore winds will occur across the interior valleys and adjacent foothill areas each afternoon and evening.
More sunshine with slight warming is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as onshore flow weakens. Then cooler with increasing marine layer clouds again the latter half of next week.

.SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...18/830 PM.

A long wave trough embedded along the West Coast will remain in place through early next week, maintaining a strong onshore flow and deep marine layer pattern. The current marine layer depth is around 3500 feet across the LA Basin, with low clouds already overspreading many coastal/valley areas, and locally into the coastal slopes from Ventura county northward. The LAX-DAG pressure gradient is expected to remain strong through Monday, generally ranging in the +8 to + 10 mb range each afternoon. This will translate into gusty onshore winds across the interior, with gusts of 25 to 40 mph common, and isolated gusts as high as 50 mph in the foothills of the Antelope Valley. A wind advisory had been issued for the Antelope Valley and western foothills until 9 pm this evening, with winds gradually expected to diminish overnight. With the deep marine layer, expecting areas of drizzle overnight into Sunday morning for areas south of Point Conception. Looking for another day of slow or no clearing near the coast on Sunday. Temperatures will remain at least 3-6 degrees below normal and possibly more where clouds linger most of all of the day.

*** From previous discussion ***

On Monday a weak low pressure system, currently centered 1000 miles west of Los Angeles, will pass through extreme southern California will drawing a deeper trough passing through the northwest states down closer to California. This will bring some noticeable changes. Temperatures will drop to below normal for the interior areas. Coastal and valleys areas will also drop a few degrees, and will likely see an even deeper marine layer and more drizzle. Low clouds could even push into some interior valleys like Cuyama and the Antelope Valley. Southern Santa Barbara County and western Ventura County would be the one exception, as increasing northwest flow will likely bring an area of low cloud clearing in the morning or early afternoon. This would locally counteract the cooling factor there, and form a coastal eddy to the east. There is chance that the marine layer grows too deep to support itself, with more clearing than we have been seeing overall by Monday afternoon.

Models still in good agreement showing much weaker onshore flow Tuesday as the trough passes to the east. Expecting faster and more complete clearing in all areas, though can't rule out some stubborn low clouds near the coast. Coastal valleys will see the biggest adjustment with highs bouncing back to the high 70s and possibly low 80s. There will be some northeast breezes across the mountains and other interior areas but those should be below advisory levels. Otherwise, just the standard onshore sea breezes for most coast/valleys.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...18/252 AM.

As the aforementioned low pressure system moves to the east on Tuesday and Wednesday, this will weaken the onshore pressure gradients and flow (LAX-DAG predicted to go from +6 millibars Monday morning to +2 millibars on Tuesday). This should cause the marine layer to lower some and not push as far inland as it has been. The northwest flow over Santa Barbara County and the northern mountains will also continue to make low clouds over southern Santa Barbara and western Ventura Counties less favorable. As a result, Tuesday and Wednesday will likely be the warmest over coastal and valleys areas over the last week or two with coastal temperatures starting to sniff normal values. Beyond that there is a fair amount of uncertainty. Several of the ensemble members show further warming to close out the week, while a significant amount show onshore flow strengthening and the marine layer expanding once again. The most likely outcome is a return to conditions like we have been seeing by Thursday or Friday of next week, with cool and cloudy conditions on the coastal side of the mountains, with warmer than usual and breezy conditions over the interior.

AVIATION
18/2356Z.

At 1715Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2900 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 4800 feet with a temperature of 17 C.

Clouds lingered across many coastal/valley areas this afternoon, except LA county where there has been better clearing. MVFR cigs expected to persist across most TAF sites tonight into Sunday morning, potentially lingering across coastal TAFS into the afternoon hours on Sunday.

Hi confidence that desert airfields will have VFR conds thru the fcst period, along with gusty W winds.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR cigs expected to linger tonight through Sunday morning, transitioning to VFR cigs by Sunday afternoon. There is a 20 percent chance of clouds burning off on Sunday afternoon. No significant E wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival of MVFR cigs at KBUR could be +/- 2 hours from current projected time. MVFR cigs likely to linger into Sunday morning, then burning off on Sunday afternoon. However, there is a 20% chance of no burnoff on Sunday afternoon.

MARINE
18/524 PM.

In the Outer Waters, high confidence in the forecast. Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels thru Sun.
There is a 30-50% chance of SCA level winds late Sun. SCA level winds and some SCA level seas are likely (40%-60%) across the entire outer waters Mon thru Tue night. There is a 30%-40% chance of SCA level winds at times Wed especially the northern waters, then conds should be below SCA levels for Thu.

For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, moderate to high confidence in the forecast. Conds are expected to remain below SCA levels thru Thu, except for a 20%-30% chance of SCA level wind gusts at times mainly afternoon and evening hours Tue thru Wed.

In the Inner Waters S of Pt. Conception, moderate to high confidence in the forecast. Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels for the majority of the area thru Thu. However, in western portions of the SBA Channel, there is a 30% chance of SCA level wind gusts at times during the afternoon/eve hours Mon thru Wed.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

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