Thursday, April25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Isla Vista, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 7:40PM Thursday April 25, 2019 4:50 PM PDT (23:50 UTC) Moonrise 1:07AMMoonset 11:18AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 216 Pm Pdt Thu Apr 25 2019
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Fri..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sat..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 10 seconds. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft. Slight chance of showers.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft. Patchy fog.
PZZ600 216 Pm Pdt Thu Apr 25 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 21z...or 2 pm pdt...a 1029 mb surface high was centered about 300 nm west of vancouver. A 1010 mb thermal low was centered near las vegas. This pattern will change little through Fri.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Isla Vista, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 252131
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
231 pm pdt Thu apr 25 2019

Synopsis 25 214 pm.

Marine layer clouds have retreated back towards the coast and
sunshine has prevailed over most areas today. There is a chance
of thunderstorms over far interior areas this afternoon. Onshore
flow will strengthen into the weekend and the cooling trend will
continue as an upper-level trough of low pressure approaches the
region. There is a chance of rain Sunday into Monday.

Short term (tdy-sun) 25 206 pm.

So far cumulus development has been fairly minimal but expecting
some stronger updrafts as daytime heating continues through the
afternoon. If something pops the mostly likely areas would be
northern ventura sb counties and will leave low thunderstorm
chances going through early evening.

Otherwise, marine layer clouds are hugging the coast north and
west of la county and expect clouds to fill in all coastal and
some valley areas overnight. Another round of dense fog possible
for the central coast as the inversion base remains very low.

Not too much change Fri sat. Models showing a little less
instability and moisture so if nothing pops today it's unlikely it
will the next two days, especially Saturday. Weak ridging will
continue Saturday though breaking down through the afternoon as an
upper low approaches from the west. A little stronger onshore flow
expected leading to later marine layer clearing and slightly
cooler temps.

Both the NAM and GFS are a little faster than the ECMWF pushing
the low into the area late Sunday into Monday. This would lead to
some additional cooling for all areas with a stronger onshore
push. It also would result in more unstable conditions over the
mountains Sunday afternoon. The NAM is showing similar CAPE li
values as today but with the added bonus of a little better
forcing aloft due to the position of the upper low.

Long term (mon-thu) 25 230 pm.

Very low confidence in the forecast early next week as a low
moving semi-cutoff upper low approaches from the west. The
operational GFS is still faster than the ECMWF and pretty much has
the low east of the area before noon Monday. However there are a
fair number of GEFS members supporting the slower ECMWF solution.

The outcome will likely be strongly dependent on the timing and
strength of the primary trough dropping out of canada at the same
time as this will be the kicker that finally moves the low east.

Given the uncertainty in the pattern feel it's best to continue
the forecast as is with low pops along with the possibility of
some thunderstorms.

Models not in particularly good agreement after Tuesday so
confidence remains low. The GFS shows the previous trough evolving
into a little inside slider with pretty strong offshore trends by
Wednesday and Thursday. Most of the ensembles and ECMWF support a
slower warm up with less offshore push by mid week and the
forecast definitely trends towards the more conservative trends.

Aviation 25 2000z.

At 1731z, the marine layer at klax was around 1100 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was 3400 feet with a temperature of 21c.

Widespread marine clouds were lingering at the beaches this
afternoon. There is increasing uncertainty as to when the marine
clouds will push into the coastal sections, with an earlier time
being the primary concern. The marine clouds may also arrive at
the valley sites a bit early this evening. There isa also a chance
of the marine layer deepening enough for MVFR ceilings in at least
coastal sections by Friday morning.

Klax... Low to moderate confidence in the 18z taf. There is a 30%
chance that CIGS will arrive as early as 02z this evening. There
is a 30 percent chance of ceilings rising to MVFR Fri morning.

Kbur... Low to moderate confidence in the 18z taf. There is a 30%
chance that CIGS will arrive as early as 05z this evening. There
is a 20 percent chance of ceilings rising to MVFR Fri morning.

Marine 25 854 am.

For all waters, high confidence in current forecast. Winds and
seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory (sca)
levels through Monday. There will be some dense fog this morning,
with vsbys 1 nm or less.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (sun-thu)
Isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday across most areas.

Gusty onshore winds could develop Monday and Tuesday in the
mountains and desert.

Public... Mw
aviation... Sweet db
marine... Sweet db
synopsis... Stewart
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 8 mi74 min SSW 7 G 8.9 59°F 1015.1 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 10 mi30 min W 3.9 G 7.8 57°F 56°F1015.4 hPa
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 27 mi29 min 60°F3 ft
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 35 mi70 min 5 ft
HRVC1 44 mi32 min 54°F 1015.5 hPa
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 44 mi50 min WSW 5.1 G 6 55°F 1015.2 hPa (+0.0)
46251 47 mi50 min 61°F3 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA3 mi57 minW 74.00 miMostly Cloudy with Haze62°F55°F80%1014.7 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA19 mi55 minW 10 G 1810.00 miFair81°F57°F45%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6SW4S4SE4W4CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5E6SE6SE6SE5SE7S6SE7S6S5W7
1 day agoSW7SE7SE6SE5SE5SE3E3NE5NE4E5E5E4E3E3E3SE4SE9SE11SE10SE13SE11SE12SE10SE9
2 days agoSE6SE5SE5SE8Calm3S6CalmCalmNW3E5N3E3NE3NE5CalmSE4S6SE66W10SW7W10W14

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, California (2)
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Santa Barbara
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Thu -- 01:05 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:55 AM PDT     4.27 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:15 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:03 AM PDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:17 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:02 PM PDT     3.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:38 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:37 PM PDT     2.97 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.94.24.34.13.73.12.31.60.90.50.30.50.81.41.92.52.93.23.23.23.1333.1

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, California
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:05 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:00 AM PDT     4.36 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:15 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:04 AM PDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:17 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:00 PM PDT     3.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:38 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:48 PM PDT     3.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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44.24.44.23.83.22.41.60.90.40.20.30.81.322.633.33.43.33.23.13.13.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.