Thursday, October18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Isla Vista, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 6:21PM Thursday October 18, 2018 7:12 PM PDT (02:12 UTC) Moonrise 3:26PMMoonset 1:20AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 214 Pm Pdt Thu Oct 18 2018
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 12 seconds.
Fri..Eastern portion, ne winds 15 to 20 kt. Western portion, winds variable 10 kt or less becoming W in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 2 to 3 ft at 12 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Sat night..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds.
Sun..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Combined seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Combined seas 2 to 4 ft.
PZZ600 214 Pm Pdt Thu Oct 18 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 20z...or 1 pm pdt, a 1025 mb high was located around 400 nm W of san francisco. A weak trough of low pressure was along the california coast.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Isla Vista, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 190004 aaa
afdlox
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
504 pm pdt Thu oct 18 2018
updated aviation discussion

Synopsis 18 133 pm.

Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue
through the weekend. Stronger offshore winds are possible Friday.

A cooling trend is expected early next week as a low pressure
system moves over the area.

Short term (tdy-sun) 18 142 pm.

Light offshore flow continues today with some weak (mostly under
20mph) northeast winds at times. Almost across the board 1-3
degree warming today as the air mass as a whole warmed up due to
the upper low moving farther east and the eastern pacific ridge
nudging a little closer. Tomorrow we'll have the added factor of
stronger offshore flow, though weaker than the santa ana we had
last Sunday Monday. And with little to no cold air advection with
this next one temps will warm up even more with highs in the
lower 90s for the warmer valleys and near 90 for inland coastal
areas. It's still a very borderline advisory event and for now am
holding off given the lack of cold air advection and weaker
offshore gradients. Advisory level winds may be confined to a
pretty small area in and around the highway 14 126 corridors.

Similar forecast for Saturday, though slightly less wind expected
as winds aloft are lighter. Temps within a degree or two of Friday.

Gradients turn onshore Sunday which will bring several degrees of
cooling to coastal areas but less so for inland areas. An upper
low overhead will start pulling in some moisture from the
southeast though models have backed off from earlier runs and now
the precip chances are too low to include in the forecast but
definitely not zero either.

Long term (mon-thu) 18 216 pm.

The cooling trend that begins Sunday will continue into early next
week as the upper low developing this weekend lingers before
exiting to the east late Tuesday and Wednesday. Temps will fall
back down to seasonal norms by Monday with some marine layer
clouds likely returning as well. There's some disagreement in the
models after Tuesday with regard to how much and how quickly the
ridge will start building in behind it but some warming likely
around mid week and the potential for quite a bit more later next
week if the GFS is correct.

Aviation 19 0003z.

At 2315z at klax, there was a near surface-based inversion. The
top of the inversion was around 700 ft deep with a temperature of
24 deg c.

High confidence in the 00z tafs. Except for a 30%-40% chance of
lifr conditions at ksmx and ksbp late tonight into Fri morning,
all airfields will haveVFR conditions thru Fri afternoon.

Increasing offshore flow can also be expected with gusty N to ne
winds expected at kvny, kwjf and kpmd late Fri morning thru the
afternoon.

Klax... High confidence inVFR conditions through the period.

Kbur... High confidence inVFR conditions through the period.

Marine 18 130 pm.

Outer waters... High confidence that winds will remain below small
craft advisory (sca) level winds through this weekend. There is a
30% chance that a SCA will be needed for pz676 Friday morning for
offshore winds through early afternoon hours. Mainly the eastern
portion. There will be areas of fog with visibilities less than
one nautical mile at times across coastal waters adjacent to the
central coast through this morning. There is a good chance similar
visibility issues could occur again late this evening into Friday
morning as well.

Inner waters... N of point conception from point sal to point
piedras blancas, winds should remain under SCA levels through this
weekend. For areas S of point conception... Overall winds should
remain below SCA levels through this weekend, except there will
be a 40% chance for a SCA Friday morning through early afternoon
from pt. Mugu to malibu and less likely across the san pedro
channel. There will be a 20% chance that a SCA will continue into
the afternoon and Friday evening between pt. Mugu to malibu.

Fire weather 18 119 pm.

Northeasterly offshore winds will increase on Friday then slowly
weaken Saturday and Sunday. These winds will not be nearly as
strong as what occurred earlier this week, but gusts between 30
and 45 mph are expected over los angeles and ventura counties
during the Friday peak. The moderately dry conditions currently
occurring will lower a little on Friday, with minimum humidities
generally between 10 and 15 percent at lower elevations.

Humidities will then increase Saturday and Sunday. As a result,
along with little to no improvement in fuel conditions leading up
to Friday, a marginal red flag warning will be issued for much of
los angeles and ventura counties for Friday, with elevated but
below critical conditions on Saturday. While this event will not
be nearly as severe as what occurred on Monday and Tuesday, it is
still a serious situation.

There will be locally gusty easterly winds (gusts of 20 to 30
mph) and dry conditions (8 to 18 percent humidities) over santa
barbara and san luis obispo counties as well, but the winds will
be weaker than their neighbors to the south. Elevated fire
conditions will persist there, but conditions should stay below
red flag thresholds.

This is a dangerous situation. The public needs to use extreme
caution with any potential fire ignition sources. Large fires
have been started by things like discarded cigarettes, campfires,
welding equipment, metallic weed wackers, and dragging trailer
chains.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Red flag warning in effect from 3 am to 10 pm pdt Friday for
zones 240-241-244>246-253-254-288-547-548. (see laxrfwlox).

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (sun-thu)
No significant hazards expected.

Public... Mw
aviation... Sirard
marine... Sweet
fire... Kittell
synopsis... B
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 8 mi97 min W 6 G 11 73°F 1016.2 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 10 mi33 min W 16 G 19 65°F 1016.3 hPa64°F
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 27 mi52 min 65°F3 ft
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 35 mi43 min 18 G 19 1016.4 hPa
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 44 mi73 min N 18 G 19 61°F 1017.6 hPa (-0.3)
46251 47 mi43 min 67°F4 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA3 mi80 minW 87.00 miFair69°F60°F73%1015.7 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA19 mi78 minW 810.00 miFair70°F51°F53%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW3E3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE55SW5W8SW8W10W8W8SW4
1 day agoW3Calm--E7NE3N3CalmCalmN3CalmN3CalmCalmCalm4SE5SW5SW6SW5W7W10W8W7W3
2 days agoCalmNW4W3W4CalmCalmN3CalmE4CalmCalmCalmNE3NE3SE4CalmSW5SW6SW5SW6SW6SW5CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, California (2)
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:43 AM PDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:19 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:06 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:42 AM PDT     4.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:04 PM PDT     2.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:24 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:20 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:33 PM PDT     4.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.811.62.43.13.74.14.23.93.53.12.72.62.733.544.34.343.42.61.7

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, California
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:33 AM PDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:19 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:06 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:33 AM PDT     4.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:55 PM PDT     2.59 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:24 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:20 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:25 PM PDT     4.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.71.11.72.53.23.84.14.23.93.532.72.62.73.13.64.14.44.33.93.32.41.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.