Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Isla Vista, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 8:06PM Monday May 29, 2017 2:06 PM PDT (21:06 UTC) Moonrise 9:59AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 811 Am Pdt Mon May 29 2017
Today..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 6 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the evening...becoming S 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 7 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming S 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Wed..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming W 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Wed night..Western portion...nw winds 15 to 20 kt. Eastern portion...sw winds 10 to 15 kt becoming variable 10 kt or less after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 7 seconds.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft.
PZZ600 811 Am Pdt Mon May 29 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 15z...or 8 am pdt...a 1022 mb high was centered 500 nm W of point conception and a 1004 mb low was near las vegas.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Isla Vista, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 291714
afdlox
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
1014 am pdt Mon may 29 2017

Synopsis
A weak upper level ridge will breakdown and give way to an upper
level trough across the region early this week and persisting
over much of california through most of the week. Expect more
widespread low clouds and fog with a few showers possible Monday
and Wednesday in the mountains with patchy drizzle for a few
valley and foothill areas by mid week.

Short term (tdy-wed)
onshore flow is starting to increase in strength this morning as a
trough of low pressure along the west coast approaches the area.

Surface pressure gradients are almost a full millibar more onshore
than this time yesterday. A 1800 foot deep marine layer has
stratus clouds well-entrenched this morning. Beach and coastal
locales may struggle to clear this afternoon, especially for the
central coast.

With onshore flow strengthening and the trough approaching, a
cooling trend will develop along a deepening marine layer into
Wednesday or Thursday. Marine layer stratus will likely stay
well-entrenched and become a staple of the weather pattern this
week. The beaches may struggle to clear each day through Thursday
as 'may gray' may turn to 'june gloom'.

Model solutions are still hinting at the potential for a few
elevated thunderstorms developing across the ventura and santa
barbara county mountains late this afternoon and this evening.

Latest nam-wrf solutions have some 850-700 mb omega values over
the area in mention, as well as 700-500 mb CAPE values. The main
threat would be dry lightning and gusty and erratic winds. Some
clouds may also build up over the san gabriel range this
afternoon; however, there is less instability over the los angeles
county mountains.

*** from previous discussion ***
low clouds are expected to redevelop and push inland across coast
and valleys tonight into Tuesday morning. With little change
synoptically, expat for slightly stronger onshore flow, expect a
degree or two of cooling across coastal areas, with little change
inland. An upper disturbance will move through the upper trough on
Wednesday bringing a more significant deep marine layer. Some
patchy drizzle has been added for the san gabriel foothills. There
will be just enough lift with this trough that some showers will
be possible across the northern slope of the sba vtu county
mountains. Took out the chance for thunderstorms as the soundings
looked quite anemic in respect to convection potential for
Wednesday. High temps will bottom out on Wednesday with warmest
valleys reaching the mid to upper 70s with a few locations
reaching 80 degrees. Otherwise most areas will be the mid 60s to
lower 80s across the antelope valley.

Long term (thu-sun)
both the GFS and ECMWF models are in fairly good agreement with
large scale features through next weekend. After the trough axis
moves through the region on Wednesday, broad NW flow aloft will
occur on Thursday then by Friday a weak upper ridge will form over
southern california briefly. Expect a modest warming trend
thu Fri across the entire region as heights and thickness lvls
rise. Onshore flow will weak late this week, but there should
continue to be night through morning low clouds. A weak upper low
will build in from the SW over the weekend which will help to
increase low clouds and begin another modest cooling trend. Models
seem to have a tough time dealing with systems coming up from the
sw. Will continue to go with cooler solution for the weekend.

Aviation 29 1615z...

at 1615z, the marine inversion at klax was based at 1800 feet. The
top of the inversion was 4500 feet with a temperature of 22
degrees celsius.

Overall, moderate confidence in 18z TAF package. Current ifr MVFR
conditions will dissipate by early afternoon withVFR conditions
for all sites this afternoon. For tonight, high confidence in
return of stratus fog to all coastal valley sites, but only
moderate confidence in timing and flight category.

Klax... Moderate confidence in 18z taf. For tonight, high
confidence in return of stratus, but moderate confidence in timing
(+ - 2 hours of current 04z forecast) and flight category (40%
chance CIGS come in at MVFR levels).

Kbur... Moderate confidence in 18z taf. For tonight, high
confidence in return of stratus, but moderate confidence in timing
(+ - 2 hours of current 08z forecast).

Marine 29 800 am...

for the outer waters, high confidence in current forecast. Small
craft advisory (sca) level winds will continue through Friday.

Each afternoon evening, there will be a 30% chance of gale force
gusts developing.

For the inner waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. For the waters north of point sal, SCA level winds are
expected each afternoon evening today through Friday. For the
waters south of point conception, conditions are generally
expected to remain below SCA levels through Friday. However, there
is a 30% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the
santa barbara channel during the afternoon evening hours on
Wednesday and Thursday.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect until 9 am pdt Wednesday for
zones 645-670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (wed-sun)
no significant hazards expected.

Public... Hall kaplan
aviation... Thompson
marine... Thompson
synopsis... Kaplan
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 8 mi90 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 58°F 1013.6 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 10 mi36 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 56°F 58°F1013.9 hPa55°F
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 27 mi36 min 61°F3 ft
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 35 mi36 min NW 19 G 25 54°F 54°F1013.4 hPa52°F
HRVC1 44 mi66 min 1015 hPa (-0.3)
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 44 mi66 min N 21 G 23 52°F 1014.8 hPa (+0.0)
46251 47 mi45 min 61°F3 ft
46257 49 mi36 min 53°F7 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA3 mi73 minSSE 710.00 miA Few Clouds63°F55°F78%1013.1 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA19 mi71 minWNW 410.00 miFair72°F51°F50%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8W9SW8SW7W4S3E5SE6E6E5CalmE4CalmCalmNW5CalmNE4SE5E5SE13SE9S10SE7SW7
1 day agoW10W11W11W9CalmSE4E5E4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S7SW7SW5SW8W9
2 days ago6SW11W12W9W7W7W7CalmN3SE3CalmNE3E4CalmCalmCalmN3SE3S7SE8SW5SW6SW8W10

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Santa Barbara
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Mon -- 12:15 AM PDT     5.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:48 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:36 AM PDT     -0.88 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:58 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:40 PM PDT     3.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:09 PM PDT     2.66 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:04 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
65.85.142.51.1-0.1-0.8-0.8-0.40.51.62.63.43.93.93.73.22.92.72.83.23.84.5

Tide / Current Tables for Gaviota, California
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Gaviota
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:34 AM PDT     5.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:50 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:53 AM PDT     -0.99 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:00 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:47 PM PDT     3.85 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:32 PM PDT     2.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:06 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.65.75.14.12.71.30-0.8-1-0.60.21.22.33.23.73.83.63.12.62.32.32.73.34

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.