Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harkers Island, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:28PM Monday January 22, 2018 2:44 PM EST (19:44 UTC) Moonrise 10:28AMMoonset 10:46PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 922 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night...
Rest of today..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming S late. Seas 1 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat, increasing to light chop late.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. Dominant period 9 seconds, decreasing to 4 seconds after midnight. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy after midnight. A chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. NEar shore, seas 4 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A slight chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. NEar shore, seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy after midnight.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harkers Island, NC
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location: 34.4, -76.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 221911
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
211 pm est Mon jan 22 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will approach from the west tonight and move
through the area Tuesday. High pressure will build in from the
west late in the week and pass offshore over the weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 210 pm mon... Increasing S winds tonight as cold front
approaches from the w. Radar shows batch of shra to the SW that
will impact SRN cst next few hrs if hold together. Overnight
moisture will grad increase with chc of shra developing late
espcly well inland. Combo of srly flow and clouds will lead to
very mild lows in the 50s.

Short term Tuesday
As of 210 pm mon... A robust frontal system approaches the region
in the morning and is progged to push across the region during
the afternoon. Still expecting a high shear low CAPE scenario
with models indicating 0-6km bulk shear up to around 70kt but
very little CAPE per the gfs ECMWF while the NAM has a little
higher CAPE values to around 500 j kg. Cannot rule out an
isolated storm bringing strong wind gusts but with better
forcing for ascent displaced to the north with moist profiles
expect the overall severe threat to be minimal at this time.

Models are not bringing much QPF with this system with precip
amount around a quarter inch. Rapid drying expected to develop
from W to E in the afternoon as deeper moisture slides
offshore. Continued very mild with highs in the lower 70s inland
but cooler water temps will hold temps in the low to mid 60s
along the coast.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
As of 3 am Monday... High pressure building in will bring dry
conditions and seasonable temperatures Tuesday night through
Friday. A warming trend will occur this weekend with another
threat for showers Saturday night and Sunday.

Tuesday night through Friday..Broad upper troughing continues
across the eastern CONUS with high pressure across the southern
southern plains Wednesday. A mid level disturbance and sfc
trough pushes across the region late Wednesday Wednesday night
and could see a few more clouds across the region but the
airmass remains very dry with pw values only around a third of
an inch and don't expect any precipitation. Will see height
rises across the region Thursday and Friday as an upper ridge
builds into the region keeping dry conditions. Sfc high pressure
builds in from the west Thursday and begins to push offshore
Friday. Temps will be near climatology with highs in the low mid
50s and lows in the low mid 30s. Coastal sections will be
cooler with highs mainly in the mid upper 40s and lows in the
mid to upper 30s.

Saturday through Sunday... The upper ridge and sfc high pressure
continues to slide eastward Saturday as a robust upper trough
and sfc cold front approach the region from the west. Could see
a few WAA showers Saturday night as increasing southerly flow
brings increasing moisture across the region but models
depicting best forcing for ascent to occur Sunday into Sunday
evening. At this time, models indicating another high shear
environment but even less instability than Tuesday's event with
li's remaining positive. Southerly flow bring warmer temps with
highs climbing into the 60s inland to mid 50s to around 60 along
the coast.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
Short term through Tue ...

as of 1245 pm mon... High confidence inVFR conditions will
continue for the next six hours as high pressure moves farther
east while a cold front from the west. An increase of clouds
ahead of the cold front will that could lead to MVFR conditions
tonight and then become ifr after midnight. Confidence is low as
forecast soundings and model guidance is showing mixed signal
both in how low flying conditions will become and timing. Rain
showers will start after midnight across all TAF sites.

Light southerly flow through tonight, then increasing 10-15
with gusts to 20 knots Tuesday after 13z.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday ...

as of 330 am Monday... Pred-vfr expected Tuesday night through
Friday as high pressure builds into the region for the latter
half of the week.

Marine
Short term through Tuesday ...

as of 210 pm mon... Srly winds will grad ramp up tonight ahead of
an approaching cold front. Expect winds to reach 15 to 20 kts
by 06z and 20 to 25 kts by morning. The ssw winds will peak tue
just ahead of front with winds 20 to 30 kts and frequent gusts
aoa 35 kts expected central wtrs espcly beyond 10 miles where
enhanced mixing expected near warmer sst. The increasing winds
will lead to seas building to 5 to 7 feet by early Tue morning
and peaking at 9 to 11 feet central wtrs in the aftn. Have
upgraded the waters between oregon inlet and CAPE lookout to
gale warning for Tue where higher gusts expected. Also added
albemarle sound alligator river and the inland rivers to the sca
tue where expect at least some gusts AOA 25 kts.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday ...

as of 330 am Monday... The front pushes across the waters late
Tuesday with winds becoming W NW around 10-20 kt Tuesday night
and early Wednesday with seas subsiding to 3-5 ft Wednesday
morning. Winds diminish 5-15 kt Wednesday afternoon but a mid
level disturbance and sfc trough move across the region
Wednesday night that will serve to increase wind back to 10-20
kt into Thursday morning before becoming N around 5-15 kt
Thursday afternoon. Nly winds less than 15 kt Friday gradually
veer to easterly by late in the day with seas around 2-3 ft.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 9 am to 5 pm est Tuesday for amz130-
131-136-137.

Small craft advisory from 8 am to 6 pm est Tuesday for amz135.

Gale warning from 9 am to 5 pm est Tuesday for amz152-154-156.

Small craft advisory from 9 am Tuesday to midnight est Tuesday
night for amz150.

Small craft advisory from 6 am Tuesday to 3 am est Wednesday
for amz158.

Synopsis... Rf
near term... Rf
short term... Rf
long term... Sk
aviation... Sk bm
marine... Rf sk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 16 mi44 min ENE 5.1 G 5.1 1021.7 hPa (-2.2)
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 22 mi44 min ESE 7 G 8 61°F 47°F1021.3 hPa (-2.5)
41159 23 mi74 min 59°F1 ft
41064 23 mi36 min E 5.8 G 5.8 61°F 59°F1021.1 hPa
41063 44 mi104 min ESE 3.9 G 3.9 66°F 66°F1021.5 hPa (-2.6)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 49 mi36 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 64°F 63°F1020.8 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC23 mi1.8 hrsESE 510.00 miFair65°F48°F56%1022 hPa

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Last 24hrS6SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE6SE5SE7
1 day agoSW12
G21
SW14SW10SW10SW9SW12SW10W8W3W3W3CalmSW5W3W3SW3W3W3W3NW4NW4NW4SW4S5
2 days agoSW10SW11SW6SW7SW6SW7SW7W7W6SW7SW7SW4SW4SW4SW5SW8SW8SW6SW6SW11SW10SW14SW16SW14

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Lookout Bight, North Carolina
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Cape Lookout Bight
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:04 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:14 AM EST     3.85 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:27 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:39 PM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:45 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:46 PM EST     3.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.71.910.30.10.30.91.72.73.53.83.73.22.41.40.5-0-0.10.311.92.83.43.5

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Lookout (ocean), North Carolina
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Cape Lookout (ocean)
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:54 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:09 AM EST     3.28 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:27 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:29 PM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:41 PM EST     3.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:45 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.21.50.80.20.10.30.81.62.433.33.12.61.91.10.4-0.1-0.10.311.72.52.93

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.