Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harkers Island, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 8:10PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 8:55 PM EDT (00:55 UTC) Moonrise 10:48PMMoonset 8:07AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 727 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight.
Thu..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harkers Island, NC
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location: 34.4, -76.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 222340
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
740 pm edt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will dominate through Thursday. A weak cold front
could approach or cross the area Friday before high pressure
resumes control over the weekend and into next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
As of 715 pm wed... No significant changes with the early
evening update as the previous forecast remains on track. Cloud
cover will continue to linger into the evening west of us hwy
17, but the stratus is expected to erode overnight with mostly
clear skies and calm winds leading to good radiational cooling,
with pleasantly cool temps dropping down into the 55-60 degree
range, coolest inland and warmest on the beaches.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
As of 330 pm wed... This will be a transition day before the heat
wave builds back into the SE conus. High pres migrates off the
mid atlantic coast, with return S to SW flow bringing a warming
trend. Temps rise back to above climo, with mid upr 80s inland
to low mid 80s on the beaches. Subsidence aloft will suppress
any chance for even an iso shower storm, with just some sct cu
development on the sea breeze boundary.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
As of 310 am wed... A highly amplified upper pattern is expected
across the CONUS through early next week featuring a strong
upper ridge over the southeast states. This pattern favors well
above average temperatures, possibly reaching record levels and
below normal precipitation. Complicating the temperature
forecast is a wavy frontal boundary forecast over the mid
atlantic region which will likely oscillate south into portions
of eastern nc Friday into Sat producing slightly cooler
temperatures Sat especially along the coast due to onshore flow.

Inland locations should remain with above normal warmth. Still
looks like a predominately dry forecast through the period.

Differential heating local sea breeze circulations and low
amplitude shortwaves could trigger isolated to widely scattered
convective activity at times but current model runs indicate no
significant organized precipitation events over the next 7 days.

Friday through Tuesday... A strong upper level ridge will move
out of the gulf of mexico and park itself over the deep south
into early next week. Surface high pressure will again set up
over the western atlantic, producing a deep SW flow across the
region. All signs continue to show that this combination could
bring close to record heat to the southeast us. However, the
latest model runs continue to show the ridge a bit further west,
placing eastern nc on the peripheral of the heat, and
vulnerable to weak boundaries drifting across the region from
the north and west, especially Friday, resulting in periods of
reprieve from the well above normal heat. Inland, the potential
for very hot conditions still exists and will forecast inland
highs in the 90s through the period and mid to upper 80s closer
to the coast. Continued to trend towards previous forecast, wpc
and the ECMWF which keeps the ridge in place. Right now the
hottest days look like Friday, and Sunday and Monday. Ecmwf
shows 850mb temps 20c+ over most of eastern nc Sunday through
the middle of next week. Record high temps will be possible.

Please see climate section below for details.

Aviation 23z Wednesday through Monday
Short term through Thu ...

as of 7 pm wed...VFR stratus will continue for kiso, kpgv, and
koaj through much of the evening before clearing overnight.VFR
and mostly clear conditions prevail through the rest of the taf
period at all sites, with light and variable winds becoming
southerly during the day Thursday.

Long term Thursday night through Monday ...

as of 310 am wed... PredVFR conditions expected through the
period, though cannot rule out patchy shallow fog and or stratus
early each morning at the terminals.

Marine
Short term through Thursday ...

as of 330 pm wed... Surface ridge centered to the northeast of
the area will make for east to northeast surface flow through
this evening and overnight. The gradient lessens tonight, with
the 10-15 kt becoming 5-10 kt tonight while veering E to ese.

The high moves further east on thu, with winds veering to S and
sw while remaining light in the morning, 5-10 kt, then
increasing in the afternoon to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt.

Seas will average 2-4 ft through the period.

Long term Thursday night through Monday ...

as of 310 am wed... High pressure will be the dominant feature
through the period. S SW winds 5-15 kt Thu increase to 15 to 20
kt and gusty Thu night with a brief period of SCA conditions
possible . Guidance continues to show a front pushing through
the waters Friday with W winds 15-20 kt early diminishing and
becoming N NE around 10 kt over the northern and central waters
in the afternoon, and NE 10 kt all waters Fri night. E NE flow
around 10 kt will become SE Sat afternoon. S SW winds 10-15 kt
are forecast for Sunday. Seas generally 2 to 4 ft through the
period. Seas may build up to 5 ft across the outer waters thu
night into early Fri in period of moderate SW W flow.

Climate
Record or near record warmth is expected late this week into
early next week.

Record high temps for 5 24 (Friday)
location temp year
new bern 96 2011 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 87 1992 (khse asos)
greenville 99 1925 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 87 1992 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 94 1994 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 95 2011 (knca asos)
record high temps for 5 26 (Sunday)
location temp year
new bern 100 1953 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 88 1962 (khse asos)
greenville 99 1927 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 96 1953 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 96 2011 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 94 2004 (knca asos)
record high temps for 5 27 (Monday)
location temp year
new bern 96 1989 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 86 2004 (khse asos)
greenville 96 1962 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 88 2006 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 96 2011 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 97 1989 (knca asos)

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Tl cb
short term... Tl
long term... Jme
aviation... Jme cb
marine... Jme tl
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 16 mi55 min ENE 13 G 15 72°F 1024.3 hPa (+0.3)56°F
41159 22 mi55 min 76°F4 ft
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 22 mi67 min E 7 G 11 72°F 79°F1024.9 hPa
41064 23 mi107 min E 16 G 19 73°F 76°F1023.6 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 49 mi107 min E 14 G 19 74°F 76°F1023.6 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW13SW16SW14S15
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S12SW13SW12SW9SW10SW12SW13SW8SW7SW8SW9SW9SW10SW9SW8--------S6
2 days agoSW12SW14SW12SW14
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Lookout, North Carolina
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Cape Lookout
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Wed -- 04:26 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:30 AM EDT     3.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:19 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:48 PM EDT     4.07 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.42.51.50.60.10.20.61.42.33.13.53.532.31.40.70.30.40.91.72.63.43.94.1

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Point, Harkers Island, North Carolina
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Shell Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:13 AM EDT     1.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:21 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:39 PM EDT     1.54 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:14 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.81.61.30.90.50.20.10.10.40.81.21.51.51.41.10.80.50.20.10.20.50.91.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.