Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 4:04 AM   Moonset 5:33 PM

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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 358 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Tonight - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers and tstms this evening, then a chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Tue - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.Tue night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: sw 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Wed - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: sw 4 ft at 6 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Wed night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: sw 5 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Thu - SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: sw 6 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu night - SW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy after midnight. Showers and tstms likely. Fri - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri night - NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers. Sat - NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 358 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure will rebuild offshore while weak troughing continues across the eastern seaboard for the next few days, but warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions. Drier but hotter conditions briefly expected Wednesday, before an approaching strong frontal system brings unsettled weather back to the area Thursday and Friday and potentially into the beginning of next weekend.

FXUS62 KMHX 062039 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 439 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will rebuild offshore while weak troughing continues across the Eastern Seaboard for the next few days, but warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions.
Drier but hotter conditions briefly expected Wednesday, before an approaching strong frontal system brings unsettled weather back to the area Thursday and Friday and potentially into the beginning of next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 400 PM Monday...

A cluster of thunderstorms over SE NC is moving northeast towards the coastal plain of ENC. Meanwhile, isolated convection is ongoing along the inland-advancing seabreeze (which currently stretches from Goldsboro to Greenville). Over the next few hours, I expect the SE NC cluster of thunderstorms to continue to march NE, with a path closely tied to the advancing seabreeze, where the airmass hasn't yet been worked over. Cloud tops have been warming with the SE NC convection, but the downstream airmass is modestly unstable (MLCAPE around 1000j/kg), and there still appears to be room for some intensification before the boundary layer begins to stabilize.
Along the seabreeze, convection has become more discrete, and deeper, compared to earlier in the day, and I expect this trend to continue for a few more hours.

South of the seabreeze, the airmass has been worked over and slightly stabilized, and it's unclear whether there will be any renewed convective risk as the SE NC convection propagates ENE.
Breaks in the clouds have allowed temps to warm back into the low 80s, so the risk for additional convection definitely isn't zero.

Despite decent instability, deep layer shear is very weak (only 10- 20kt), which will limit the potential for better storm organization. Because of this, I expect the risk of severe weather to remain LOW (10-20%) across the area at large through this evening. That said, where taller, more sustained storms can develop, the environment will be supportive of 40-60 mph wind gusts and pea size hail.

While convection should tend to be heavily diurnally-driven, there will be a couple of weak mid-level shortwaves that will traverse the region through tonight, so I've opted to keep a low-end mention of showers and thunderstorms going through the night.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 PM Monday...

Tuesday has the look of a conditional severe weather day across Eastern NC, with less coverage than today, but with a more favorable environment.

Convection may be ongoing right along, or just off, the coast in the morning associated with a weak mid-level wave moving through. The wave doesn't look particularly strong, but even so, I expect there to be at least a brief period of subsidence in its wake. Additionally, mid/upper level ridging will be approaching from the west, adding to the potential for subsidence. At minimum, I expect this to lead to a reduced risk of thunderstorms compared to today.

With that in mind, though, and assuming full clearing during the afternoon, strong heating of a moist boundary layer will support MLCAPE climbing as high as 1000-1500 j/kg. Meanwhile, mid/upper level northwesterly flow aloft atop a southerly low- level flow will lead to an increase in deep layer shear (on the order of 25-35kt). At face value, the environment on Tuesday is expected to be more supportive of severe weather than today's environment. However, modest subsidence plus questionable low- level forcing calls into question whether or not convection can initiate in the afternoon. It appears that the seabreeze will be the primary focus for convective initiation. Based on all of the above, I expect a lower coverage of thunderstorms compared to today, but if/where thunderstorms develop, there will be an increased risk of severe weather compared to today. Also, it may tend to be one of those days where convection develops later than the typical early to mid-afternoon timeframe.

Regarding potential hazards, the environment will support damaging winds and large hail with any sustained updraft. Mid- level lapse rates aren't forecast to be particularly steep, but northwesterly flow aloft will increase the risk of rotating updrafts, subsequently increasing the potential for hail development. In this pattern, I expect LCLs to be a bit higher (closer to 1000m), but the NW flow will provide some added turning down low, and a tornado cannot be ruled out.

With the low-level flow taking on more of a westerly component with time, low-level thicknesses will get a boost, and I expect temps to respond by peaking higher than today (barring more cloudcover than forecast).

Any convection that develops should weaken by late evening as the boundary layer stabilizes, and as low-level forcing weakens.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As 345 AM Mon...Unsettled weather will continue through midweek as a weak trough lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. Wednesday may be the driest day of the week with only isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. However this lack of precipitation will be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity. An approaching strong frontal system will then impact the area Thursday into Friday once again bringing unsettled weather back to the area. More benign weather possible over the weekend.

Wednesday...A more zonal upper level pattern briefly emerges across the Mid-Atlantic as a weak impulse treks across the zonal flow. At the surface SW'rly flow and increasing low level thicknesses will result in hot and humid conditions with afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and low to mid 80s along the coast. There is a chance for some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity to occur especially along any sea/sound breeze Wed afternoon as strong instability will once again be in place though with weaker shear and forcing compared to Tuesday current thinking is that storms won't be very organized in nature. This could change and bears monitoring in the coming days but given latest thinking Wed still looks to be the driest day out of the week so far.

Thursday through Sunday...Weak upper level troughing will again redevelop overhead Thursday with a large trough looming across the Great Lakes. This will bring a more conducive environment for afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm development with hot and humid conditions expected again. Latest trends have sped up an incoming cold front with the frontal passage now forecast to occur Thurs night into Fri morning. As a result greatest thunderstorm and severe threat is now likely on Thurs afternoon and evening with a diminishing threat on Friday. With this change in mind, did increase PoP's to likely on Thurs afternoon and lowered PoP's on Friday to SChc to Chc.

Otherwise as noted above, strong instability (SBCAPE values >1500 J/kg), ample 0-6 km shear (35-45 kts), and steep mid level lapse rates (6.5-7.5 C/Km) will likely result in a more widespread strong to severe thunderstorm threat Thurs afternoon and evening.

Though a robust shortwave trough will then swing southward into the area on Friday, with the quicker cold frontal passage precip on Friday is now forecast to primarily remain rain with only an isolated thunder threat as instability will have been shunted well offshore.

The front will push through the area by Friday morning with mostly dry conditions expected by Saturday and Sunday. A more seasonable airmass will move in behind the front with highs near to just below normal.

AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 18z Tuesday/...
As of 100 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Increased TSRA risk through tonight

- Occasional sub-VFR VIS/CIGs through tonight

FORECAST DETAILS

It appears that the developing seabreeze is on the move this afternoon, and currently stretches from OAJ to EWN to FFA. SCT SHRA and a few TSRA have been ongoing since this morning, and this risk will steadily increase through the afternoon as the seabreeze works inland. Additionally, a weak upper level wave will move out of central NC and through Eastern NC later today and tonight, offering increased lift for TSRA development. It's expected that this will translate to an increased risk of TSRA from ISO to PGV by mid to late afternoon. SHRA and TSRA may then attempt to move back towards this coast this evening and tonight as the above-mentioned wave moves through, but confidence in TSRA lowers after 00z this evening. For now, then, I'll continue to focus the SHRA and TSRA risk between now and 00z.

Like this morning, another round of low stratus is possible (30-50% chance) in the wake of the TSRA activity. However, the weather pattern tonight isn't quite the same as last night, and confidence is too low to include a sub-VFR CIG for tonight. SHRA and TSRA may be ongoing early Tuesday morning, followed by a brief lull mid to late-morning.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Mon...VFR conditions are expected for the most part through mid-week outside of any shower or thunderstorm each aftn/evening that impacts the area. Another round of sub VFR conditions will be possible Thu afternoon and evening as a cold front moves across the region bringing more widespread rain and thunderstorm activity with VFR conditions likely returning at some point on Fri.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday night/...
As of 400 PM Wednesday...

A background southwesterly flow of 15-25kt will continue over the next couple of days, with a daily boost each afternoon and evening with the strengthening thermal gradient. The gradient will be stronger on Tuesday compared to today, and because of this, I expect winds to bump up against 25kt for several hours.
The frequency and duration will be close to SCA criteria, but I feel like it will be more of an occasional gusts to 25kt scenario, so for now I've opted to go headline-free through Tuesday night. We'll continue to evaluate this potential in later forecasts, though. In a similar fashion, seas should peak a bit higher on Tuesday compared to today, but generally be in the 3-5 ft range.

The risk of thunderstorms may increase later this evening and through tonight as a couple of upper level waves move through.
On Tuesday, the risk of thunderstorms looks to be focused in the morning hours, with a lessening risk through the day.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 345 AM Mon... An active weather pattern will lead to deteriorating boating conditions through midweek. Otherwise 15-20 kt SW'rly winds will continue across all our waters with ocnl gusts to 25 kts along the Gulf Stream waters on Wed. As a cold front approaches on Thursday SW'rly winds increase further closer to 15-25 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts at times promoting SCA conditions across our waters on Thurs with winds potentially easing and becoming more westerly by the end of the week. Seas will increase to 5-7 ft Thursday in response to strengthening winds

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Cape Lookout
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Mon -- 12:08 AM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:18 AM EDT     4.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:11 PM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:42 PM EDT     4.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Lookout, North Carolina, Tide feet

Shell Point
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Mon -- 03:03 AM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:27 AM EDT     1.76 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:06 PM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:51 PM EDT     2.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Point, Harkers Island, North Carolina, Tide feet

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