Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 4:33 PM   Moonset 3:09 AM

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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 656 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2024
Tonight - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 6 seconds and se 1 ft at 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight, decreasing to 1 nm or less. Tue - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 7 seconds and E 2 ft at 2 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tue night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Wed - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 8 seconds and se 1 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat, increasing to light chop in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 8 seconds and se 2 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 3 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Fri night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms after midnight. Sat - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Sat night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 656 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through mid week before the next potential frontal system moves through late week.

FXUS62 KMHX 201832 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 232 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through mid week before the next potential frontal system moves through late week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 130 PM Monday...

- Patchy, dense fog possible tonight (20-40% chance)

A mid/upper level ridge will shift east over the Carolinas through tonight. Meanwhile, at the SFC, high pressure will nose south out of the Northern Mid-Atlantic. This will keep a "cool" northeasterly onshore flow going across Eastern NC through tonight. Low-level moisture trapped beneath an inversion (centered around 800mb) will continue to support periods of low clouds through tonight. Of note, recent satellite imagery reveals an area of low-level drying south of the Chesapeake Bay, with an area of limited cloudcover stretching south into the Albemarle Sound vicinity of Eastern NC. Short-term guidance is insistent that this drying will be temporary, with low clouds building back in through the night. Additionally, a moist onshore flow plus light winds appears supportive of some fog potential tonight. The general consensus of guidance is more stratus than fog, and ensemble guidance only give a 20-40% chance of dense fog across any part of the area. Given all of the above, I will keep a patchy fog mention in the forecast, but hold off on messaging dense fog for now. If clouds end up clearing out, the fog threat would increase.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
As of 130 PM Monday...

- Near to below normal temps, and dry conditions, continue on Tuesday

Ridging aloft, and high pressure at the surface, will support another day of dry weather across ENC on Tuesday. The main forecast challenge Tuesday will be how quickly, or if, morning clouds mix out. I suspect guidance is a bit too quick to erode the morning clouds, although we'll be losing the moist, onshore flow as high pressure shifts overhead, so perhaps there's some credence to this. Assuming clouds mix out by the afternoon, highs should reach close to normal inland, but still remain below normal along the Outer Banks.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 330 AM Monday...High pressure builds in from the north for the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from the west toward the latter half of the week.

Tuesday night through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with steadily warming conditions. By Wed and Thu, temps rise through the 80s and back above climo. In fact, some areas may flirt with 90 degree highs by Thu. Lows will be in the 50s to start the pd, then rise into the 60s by mid week.

Friday through Sunday...Next potential weather maker in the form of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive by week's end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region with a warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of disagreement this far out, so pops only in the 30's% at best.
Followed closer to climo, and kept thunder mainly in the afternoon to early evening time periods, with very small to nil shower chances overnight and morning periods.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 18z Tuesday/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

- Periods of MVFR/IFR CIGs through at least Tuesday AM

- FG possible (20-40% chance) tonight

A cool and moist northeasterly onshore flow should continue to support periods of low CIGs through at least early to mid- morning Tuesday. Additionally, as temps cool tonight, reduced VIS will become increasingly likely. The thinking is that tonight will be more of a stratus scenario as opposed to a dense fog scenario. Regardless, sub-VFR conditions are expected tonight (>80% chance). If clouds clear out tonight, the risk of FG would end up higher, and we'll continue to monitor trends and adjust the TAFs as necessary. For now, the TAFs reflect more stratus than FG.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions are expected early through mid to late week.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

- Improving marine conditions over the next 24 hours

Breezy northeast winds of 10-20kt are ongoing across area waters this afternoon thanks to a pinched gradient between low pressure offshore and high pressure nosing south out of the northern Mid- Atlantic. This is also supporting elevated seas of 4-6ft across the coastal waters. High pressure will shift south into North Carolina tonight, then over Eastern NC on Tuesday.
This will allow winds and seas to lay down, supporting improving marine conditions by Tuesday. In fact, winds should lay down to <10kt for all waters on Tuesday, with seas laying down to 2-4 ft. The one fly in the ointment tonight and Tuesday morning will be the potential for fog. Late this evening through about mid- morning Tuesday, visibilities are expected to fall to 1-3NM, especially across the northern waters. At this time, the probability of <1NM visibility is 20-40%, and no marine dense fog headlines are planned, but trends will be closely monitored.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 4 AM Sun...High pressure will remain in control, favoring good boating conditions through mid-week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ152-154.

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