Friday, May24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Topsail Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:13PM Friday May 24, 2019 12:51 PM EDT (16:51 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:59AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 942 Am Edt Fri May 24 2019
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Topsail Beach, NC
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location: 34.42, -77.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 241340
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
940 am edt Fri may 24 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will move from the carolinas down to florida
today allowing temperatures to soar into the 90s. A weak
backdoor front could briefly make it into the area Saturday, but
should return north Saturday night. Unseasonably hot conditions
will continue next week.

Near term through Saturday
As of 930 am Friday... No major changes necessary to the previous
forecast.

Previous discussion... As of 300 am Friday... The mid and upper
levels will be dominated by dry northwest flow between a strong
ridge across georgia and a trough sweeping off the new england
coastline. Our 850 mb temperatures are expected to soar to +19c
this afternoon, allowing highs to reach 95-97 degrees for most
locations. Offshore winds at the surface should be strong enough
to delay the seabreeze by several hours, and this should easily
be the hottest day so far this year at the grand strand and
cape fear beaches. My forecast is for records to be tied or
broken in all locations except lumberton today.

Current record highs for today Friday may 24:
wilmington 97 in 2011
florence 97 in 1994
n. Myrtle beach 90 in 1949
lumberton 98 in 2011
the trough moving off new england is supporting a sub-1000 mb
surface low that will move out into the northwestern atlantic
tonight and Saturday. A backdoor front extending well south of this
feature should reach the CAPE fear area late tonight, sliding
southwest into the grand strand area Saturday morning. East and
northeast winds behind the front will help keep temperatures 6-10
degrees cooler near the coast versus today. West of the where the
front reaches, the same hot airmass will exist and highs should
again soar well into the 90s.

While today should remain dry with no upper features or surface
boundaries to initiate deep convection, enhanced convergence along
the front tomorrow plus a slightly weaker ridge aloft could allow one
or two thunderstorms to develop across the pee dee region. Forecast
pops are no higher than 20 percent mainly near and south of florence.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night
As of 300 am Friday... Frontal boundary both lifts north and falls
apart Saturday night. Piedmont trough develops on Sunday. Very hot
temperatures will develop even along the coast as the sea breeze
will be quite pinned, perhaps only to the immediate beaches.

Nighttime lows will be elevated some 10 degrees above climatology
similar to daytime highs.

Long term Monday through Thursday
As of 300 am Friday... Impressive mid and upper ridge just to our
west to bring a prolonged period of near record heat. The low level
ridge will move from west of the area to overhead albeit very
gradually. This prevents moisture advection through much of the
boundary layer, which should preclude heat indices that will lead to
heat advisory apparent temperatures. The ridge should finally
weaken on Friday allowing a weak cold front to enter the region. The
lack of moisture advection ahead of it will unfortunately mean no
rain. Temperatures will still run above normal on Friday, just not
as hot as the preceding week.

Aviation 13z Friday through Tuesday
As of 12z... West southwest winds are expected today, with near
record high temperatures. Tonight, a weak front drops into the
region. Only weather associated with it will be a wind shift to the
northeast.

Extended outlook... ContinuedVFR conditions are expected
through the weekend as high pressure dominates. There is a
slight chance of MVFR conditions each morning from low stratus
and or fog, and also from isolated afternoon thunderstorms.

Marine
As of 300 am Friday... High pressure will sink all the way south
to florida today, allowing winds to veer westerly across the
carolina coastal waters. Winds should be just strong enough to
delay this afternoon's seabreeze by a few hours. Instead of
south southwest winds developing around noon as is typical, look
for the shift to occur during the mid afternoon hours. This
should allow temperatures to soar into the 90s at most beaches
today.

Low pressure moving off the new england coast later today should
push a backdoor cold front south across the mid-atlantic area,
reaching CAPE fear before daybreak Saturday. Winds will shift
northeast to east behind this front. There's a fair amount of model
disagreement about how strong winds will be Saturday. The best
potential for 15 knot winds appear to be north of CAPE fear, with
speeds averaging 10 kt along the grand strand.

Seas are currently 2-3 feet and should change little through
Saturday in a mix of 8-second SE swell and 4 second local wind chop.

Light onshore flow Saturday with the last vestige of frontal
boundary lifting to the north. Piedmont trough develops Sunday
and is maintained Sunday night bringing a southwesterly flow.

Very little will change in the extended period Monday into
Tuesday so winds and seas will remain in the 10-15kt 2-3 ft
range.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... mbb
near term... Tra mas
short term... mbb
long term... mbb
aviation... Tra
marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 25 mi43 min W 14 G 18 77°F 76°F1018.1 hPa
41159 25 mi51 min 76°F4 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi43 min W 5.8 G 7.8 78°F 76°F1018.5 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 28 mi51 min 76°F2 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi39 min WSW 5.1 G 9.9 87°F 76°F1018.6 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 30 mi43 min W 16 G 21 76°F 76°F1018.7 hPa
WLON7 35 mi39 min 89°F 79°F1018.7 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 41 mi33 min SW 6 G 11 83°F 77°F1018.2 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 45 mi51 min WSW 16 G 19 78°F 1017.8 hPa (-0.9)70°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC21 mi55 minWNW 9 G 1810.00 miA Few Clouds89°F68°F50%1018.1 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7S9S10S11S12
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1 day agoE7NE6SE12S11SE11SE11SE10SE10SE8E9SE8E6SE6N4N5N3CalmN3N4NE3Calm446
2 days agoN83N9
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CalmN8SE17
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SE12SE10E11E11E13E10E8E10NE5NE6NE9NE9NE8NE7NE6NE8NE8E9

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:06 AM EDT     3.05 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:33 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:36 PM EDT     2.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:34 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.92.51.91.30.70.40.40.71.21.82.32.62.62.41.91.30.80.50.50.71.21.92.4

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:10 AM EDT     3.05 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:16 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:40 PM EDT     2.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:17 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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332.62.11.510.60.30.40.91.52.22.62.62.421.510.60.50.511.62.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.