Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Topsail Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 5:06PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 6:31 PM EST (23:31 UTC) Moonrise 12:28PMMoonset 11:07PM Illumination 44% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 243 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.gale warning in effect from 10 pm est this evening through Thursday afternoon...
Tonight..E winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, except 4 to 6 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough. A chance of showers early this evening, then showers late this evening and overnight.
Thu..SE winds 25 to 35 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 11 ft, except 6 to 8 ft near shore. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough, diminishing to rough in the afternoon. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Thu night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, except 4 to 6 ft near shore. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough.
Fri..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. NEar shore, seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Topsail Beach, NC
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location: 34.42, -77.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 142300
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
600 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
A chilly rain can be expected overnight into Thursday, as gulf
moisture tracks over cool high pressure building in. A coastal
trough moving onshore Thursday morning could bring a few strong
thunderstorms. Dry high pressure in wake of this system will
offer clear skies and plentiful sunshine Friday through the
weekend, with seasonably cool temperatures. A cold front will
reinforce cool conditions early next week.

Near term through Thursday
As of 6 pm Wednesday... Reductions will be needed for pop early,
as radar returns remain mostly absent from the coast and the
coastal interior. An uptick trend in rain chance is still the
expectation, however based on radar, we will trim pop values
early into mid evening, ramping up overnight as isentropic omega
rises and cold air advection allows for steeper and stronger over-
running. The coastal low itself a Thursday feature, still carries
a slightly elevated TSTM risk in the daylight morning of
Thursday. No other notable changes were made for the early
evening updates.

As of 300 pm
Wednesday... Surface wave developing along front stalled across
central fl will slowly move northeast this evening and
overnight. The wave will develop into a surface low as it moves
north, increasing isentropic lift across the local area. Strong
low level jetting develops overnight, up to 60 kt around 3k ft
at its peak. Strong southeast flow just above the surface and
strong southwest flow aloft will spread an abundance of tropical
moisture over the region. Forecast soundings have precipitable
water peaking between 1.8 to 2 inches, values which exceed the
max all time based on sounding climatology. Strong lift coupled
with abundant moisture will produce widespread heavy rain
overnight with convective elements developing closer to coast as
the low approaches. Front may move onshore just ahead of the
low Thu morning. Do not think the boundary would push very far
inland, but this would allow for a period of time where strong
to severe storms will be possible along the immediate coast,
mainly from 10-15z. Temperatures will gradually increase
overnight, with lows likely to occur before midnight. Along the
coast temps could rise 10 degrees or more overnight if the front
moves onshore.

Widespread heavy rain decreases quickly following the passage
of the surface low, although low level moisture will linger
across the region through the end of the period. Low cloud is
likely to linger through the afternoon despite much drier air
aloft spreading over the area. Light rain and drizzle will
remain a possibility into the afternoon, especially along the
coast. Slow moving 5h low crosses the tn ky valleys tomorrow as
large dry slot spreads over the southeast. Any dynamics
associated with the mid-level low will remain north of the area
and the low lifts out before strong advection can get going.

High pressure builds in from the west late Thu with deep
westerly flow in place as the period ends. Highs will range from
near to slightly above climo along the coast (where the front
moves onshore) to well below climo inland where the wedge holds
strong. Most areas will experience highs before noon.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... No pcpn expected! A dry fcst! Temps
this period running about 1 to possibly 2 cats below normal. The
mid-level closed low and associated dynamics will be opening
and accelerating thru the NE states during Thu night. A sfc trof
or secondary sfc cold front associated with it will sweep
across the fa overnight Thu resulting in a slight veer of the
sfc wind field from W to wnw-nw. First half of Fri will be
blustery with the hier wind gusts in the morning due to leftover
caa and a tightened sfc pg. By Fri night and continuing into sat,
the center of sfc high pressure will be in the neighborhood.

Expect tranquil wx with skies mostly clear and winds generally 0
to 3 mph Fri night and 5 to 9 mph during sat.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... Thru Monday, the longwave pattern
aloft paints a low amplitude trof covering nearly the entire
u.S. With the trof axis west of the ilm cwa. The flow aloft will
generally be westerly with equal inputs from the flow out of
canada, ie. Northern jet, and the subtropical jet or the
southern jet. As a result, no major storm systems thru Mon with
temps each day right at normal for this time of the year.

For Tue into Wed period, difficult to say if the longwave
pattern is in the midst of changing. Or, is it just potent mid
level impulses that dive out of canada to amplify the upper trof
resulting in a possible quick low pressure system affecting the
east coast in he mid to mainly late week period of next week.

This will be our 1st shot of pcpn in almost a week if any of
these S W mid-level trofs materialize.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
As of 23z... Dry low-levels will keep terminals inVFR tonight
before the main swath of precip begins to move in. Expect a ovc
ceiling around 10k ft and dropping steadily as low-level moisture
advection ramps up with the approaching low. Northeasterly winds will
stay strong between 10-15 knots with a few gusts from time to time.

Precip moves in around 05z-07z from SW to NE across the area and
cigs will drop quickly becoming MVFR 1-2k ft agl. While initially
light, expect strong isentropic lift to overrun the cooler, stable
air near the surface; this will increase precip intensity, lowering
vis and CIGS to ifr around 08z-12z. The onset of ifr is likely to be
dependent on precip intensity and, as such, there is limited
confidence at this time, but guidance seems to agree at around 09z-
11z. Not much recovery is expected and if there is any, it will
occur near the end of the TAF period and more likely inland where
nam shows good northerly cold dry air advection. However, with
enough trapped low-level moisture, should keep MVFR stratus around
through the TAF period. Ifr at the coast where low-levels stay moist
and stable through at least 00z.

Extended outlook... MVFR ifr lifting overnight thurs for possible
stratus and fog Fri morning. After this, drier,VFR conditions
Friday into the weekend. Dry cold frontal passage expected late
Monday.

Marine
Near term through Thursday ...

as of 6 pm Thursday... Extended the gale until 6 am, to allow 35
kt gusts to fully expire overnight around the CAPE fear waters.

As of 300 pm Wednesday... Northeast flow will strengthen a little
more this evening as low pressure consolidates over fl before
moving northeast. Gale warning remains in effect with sustained
speeds likely ending up short of 34 kt, but with gusts in excess
of 34 kt, which are the main reason for the headline. Low
pressure moves into the area early Thu with winds decreasing and
veering to east and then southeast then finally southwest by
thu afternoon. Seas approaching double digits in some areas
overnight will subside in response to southwest winds during
thu. However, an SCA will likely be needed for the remainder of
thu morning and at least a part of Thu afternoon.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... SCA conditions likely after the gale
for Thu night and continuing into 1st half of fri. This a
result of a tightened sfc pg and ongoing CAA and drier air
advecting across the local waters. The sfc pg will relax during
fri aftn and night. The CAA will have become neutral Fri aftn
and night. As a result, will see diminishing winds to well below
sca thresholds by dusk fri. Did not go as low as guidance but
still will remain below any SCA or scec thresholds. Significant
seas will peak Thu night during the pre-dawn Fri hrs. But with a
decreased fetch under an offshore wind trajectory during this
period, overall sig. Seas will be in a subsiding trend. It will
be slow initially due to the ese swell at 9 second periods but
eventually the shorter period wind driven waves will dominate.

Long term Saturday through Monday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... With a rather relaxed sfc pg thruout
the period, winds will stay below 15 kt and quite possibly aob
10 kt for a portion of the time. This in turn will result in
short period wind driven waves that should not be a problem to
boaters. However, the 9+ second period ese ground swell will
likely become the dominate input to the significant seas
formula. Wavewatch3 indicates a 2 to 3 ft possibly up to 4 feet
ese ground swell at the advertised 9+ second periods.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 6 am est Thursday for amz250-252-254-256.

Synopsis... Mjc
near term... Iii 8
short term... Dch
long term... Dch
aviation... 21
.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 25 mi24 min ENE 27 G 35 58°F 75°F1026.2 hPa
41159 25 mi62 min 75°F8 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi32 min NNE 22 G 27 51°F 65°F1027.3 hPa (+0.3)
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi24 min ENE 21 G 27 55°F 67°F1026.8 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 30 mi24 min ENE 27 G 35 59°F 73°F1025.6 hPa
WLON7 35 mi32 min 51°F 61°F1027.1 hPa (-0.0)
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 41 mi32 min NNE 11 G 15 51°F 64°F1028.9 hPa (+0.9)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 45 mi32 min NNE 27 G 31 1028.2 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC21 mi36 minNNE 1210.00 miOvercast49°F37°F66%1028.3 hPa

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Last 24hrN7N10N11N9N9N9NE10NE11N10NE12N9N10NE12N14
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SW8W13W6SW4W4W5W5W4W5W6W8W6W6NW8NW9
2 days agoNE5N5N5N6N5NE4N5NE5N3NE4N4N6NE6NE9NE7NE8NE8NE8NE6NE10N6E8E10E10

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
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Wed -- 05:42 AM EST     0.62 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:05 PM EST     3.04 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:28 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:39 PM EST     0.60 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:06 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.62.421.510.70.60.91.31.92.52.932.92.621.510.70.60.81.31.82.3

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:24 AM EST     0.62 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:09 PM EST     3.04 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:29 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:06 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:22 PM EST     0.60 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:08 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.62.52.21.71.20.90.60.71.11.72.32.8332.72.21.71.20.80.60.711.62.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.