Saturday, September23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Topsail Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 7:05PM Saturday September 23, 2017 8:54 AM EDT (12:54 UTC) Moonrise 9:07AMMoonset 8:25PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 740 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday evening...
Today..N winds around 5 kt, becoming ne this afternoon. Seas around 6 ft, except around 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 14 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat, increasing to light chop this afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 7 ft, building to 9 ft after midnight. NEar shore, seas 5 to 6 ft. Dominant period 15 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 11 ft, except around 7 ft near shore. Dominant period 15 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 12 ft, except around 8 ft near shore. Dominant period 16 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 11 to 12 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 12 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Tue..Tropical storm conditions possible.
Tue night..Tropical storm conditions possible.
Wed..N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 12 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 10 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Topsail Beach, NC
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location: 34.42, -77.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 231043
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
643 am edt Sat sep 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure over new england will maintain warm and dry
weather over the carolinas through the weekend. Hurricane maria
is expected to move northward a couple of hundred miles east of
the carolina coast Monday through Wednesday. Hazardous boating
conditions, strong rip currents, and large surf are all expected
to develop. A cold front may reach the area Friday, bringing
cooler weather for late next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 300 am Saturday... Weak mid level troughing will gradually give
way to 5h ridge over great lakes expanding south. Surface high under
the 5h ridge will do the same, building south today and tonight.

Clear skies today will allow strong diurnal heating but mid level
subsidence and dry air, precipitable water is forecast to drop under
1.2 inch this afternoon, will work against the development of deep
convection. Cannot rule out some flat cumulus, especially along the
sea breeze, but skies will generally remain clear today and tonight.

Temperatures will continue to run above climo with highs in the mid
to upper 80s and lows in the mid 60s.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
As of 300 am Saturday... Closed 500 mb high pressure centered
over pennsylvania on Sunday will bridge across to the bermuda
high on Monday. This "bridging" process is occurring earlier
and more strongly than models were thinking several days ago,
and this has led to a westward trend in the predicted path of
hurricane maria as it moves northward. Where over the past
several days the storm was expected to follow 70 or 71 degrees
longitude as it passed by the carolina coast, we're now thinking
73 or perhaps even 74 degrees longitude is more likely.

The 500 mb ridge to our north will help sustain a subsidence
inversion between 4000-6000 feet agl Sunday that will lower to
3000-4000 feet on Monday. The stable and dry air aloft will help
to keep weather conditions dry across the area both days,
although it's possible a few shallow maritime showers could
push onshore into the CAPE fear area by Monday night,
particularly if maria moves as far west as some of the latest
models are suggesting. Early morning low stratus is also a good
possibility in this pattern.

Despite two days of northeast flow 850 mb temps shouldn't fall
appreciably from where we've been over the past few days,
remaining in the +15c to +17c range. Our forecast highs range
from 83-86 near the coast to 86-88 both days. Overnight lows
generally 65-70, warmest at the beaches.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
As of 300 pm Friday... Hurricane maria will be slowly making its
way north well off the coast of the carolinas through the first
half of the week. Expected impacts will be dangerous surf and
an elevated rip current risk from long period (15 sec) swells.

This swell energy will translate into breaking waves as high as
10 to 15 feet along the beaches of new hanover and pender
counties, and 6 to 10 feet along the beaches of brunswick, horry
and georgetown counties into Wednesday. The swell energy should
begin to ease late Wednesday, but dangerous surf and an
elevated rip current risk will likely continue into Friday.

Northeast to north winds will be breezy along the coast, and
gust occasionally into the 20-30 mph range by Tuesday-
Wednesday. It will be a tough call at this point to determine
how much peripheral moisture from maria will affect the area,
however it is reasonable to expect for the ilm cwa, that SE nc
will have the best chance for precipitation based on the current
forecast track of maria. The highest pops, which will still
remain less than 30% at this time, will be Tuesday into
Wednesday, before the cyclone gets picked up by the westerlies
on Thursday as indicated by both the GFS and ecmwf.

Upper level ridging and subsidence west of the hurricane will
likely result in a sharp sky cover gradient and temperatures
remaining a few degrees above normal through the week.

Aviation 11z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 11z... Fairly widespread low stratus and fog blankets the
area this morning, particularly inland from the coast. This
moisture is quite thin and should burn off quickly, withVFR
conditions developing around 13z. The remainder of the day
should feature excellent aviation weather with mainly clear
skies and light northeast winds. Deep vertical mixing should
develop some shallow cumulus clouds with bases around 4000 feet
by noon, rising to 5000 feet later this afternoon. Clear skies
and light winds overnight may develop a little fog again late
tonight, but coverage should be much less than we are currently
experiencing.

Extended outlook... MainlyVFR conditions through the period with
the exception of possible MVFR ifr conditions due to low clouds
and fog each morning, mainly between 08z-12z.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Saturday... Northeast winds under 10 kt for much of today
will start to increase later this afternoon or this evening.

Gradient will start to tighten up as hurricane maria steadily moves
north. Northeast winds will approach 15 kt late this evening and 20
kt by the end of the period. Seas will mainly be composed of swell
from maria, running 4 to 6 ft for much of the period before
increasing to 4 to 8 ft by the end of the period.

Short term Sunday through Monday night ...

as of 300 am Saturday... 1021 mb high pressure over the eastern
great lakes on Sunday will move off the new england coast by
Monday. Models have shifted farther west over the 24 hours with
hurricane maria's track, now expected to move northward along
73 or 74 degrees west longitude next week. That's a good 100
miles closer to the north carolina coast than our thoughts were
this time last night, and could bring more of the peripheral
winds from maria's west side to the area. Gusts as early as
Sunday could reach 25 knots, and a small craft advisory has been
extended out through Wednesday for increasing northeasterly
winds and for very large wave heights, particularly north and
east of CAPE fear where combined seas as large as 12 feet could
start showing up within 20 miles of the beaches by Sunday
evening.

Long term Tuesday through Wednesday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... Based on the latest forecast track for
maria, northerly winds will peak Tuesday night into Wednesday,
with 20 to 25 knots north of CAPE fear. South of CAPE fear, a 15
to 20 knot range can be expected. Expect small craft advisory
conditions through the entire period.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... High rip current risk through this evening for scz054-056.

Nc... High rip current risk through this evening for ncz106-108-110.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Wednesday for amz250-252-
254-256.

Synopsis... Tra
near term... Iii
short term... Tra
long term... Crm
aviation... Tra


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 25 mi46 min N 7.8 G 9.7 77°F 1016.3 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi54 min NNW 4.1 G 6 71°F 81°F1016 hPa (+1.4)
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 28 mi55 min 79°F5 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi106 min NNE 9.7 G 16 75°F 79°F1016.1 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 30 mi46 min N 9.7 G 16 77°F 80°F1016.3 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 33 mi69 min NNE 1 70°F 1017 hPa
WLON7 35 mi54 min 71°F 78°F1016.8 hPa (+1.3)
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 41 mi54 min NNW 4.1 G 8 73°F 77°F1016 hPa (+1.0)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 45 mi54 min WNW 6 G 7 77°F 1016.3 hPa (+1.1)

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC21 mi58 minN 07.00 miFair69°F69°F100%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3Calm333CalmNE33S6S5SW3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmNW3CalmE4Calm3SE5E17
G23
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2 days agoW5W8W8W8NW8W10
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CalmSW5SW3S6S5SW4SW5W6SW5CalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:08 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:24 AM EDT     3.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:43 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:43 PM EDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.61.910.40.20.30.91.72.53.23.63.53.12.41.60.80.40.30.61.21.92.633.1

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:50 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:11 AM EDT     5.16 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:25 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:30 PM EDT     4.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.52.41.20.50.30.71.52.73.94.85.254.33.2210.50.51.123.13.94.44.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.