Sunday, August19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Topsail Beach, NC

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Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 7:53PM Sunday August 19, 2018 10:05 AM EDT (14:05 UTC) Moonrise 2:00PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 841 Am Edt Sun Aug 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 5 pm edt this afternoon...
Rest of today..SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers late this morning, then a chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers and tstms likely.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the morning.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Topsail Beach, NC
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location: 34.42, -77.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 190938
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
538 am edt Sun aug 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure offshore will maintain warm and humid weather,
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through the period.

A cold front is expected to cross the coast Thursday, with a
drying trend Friday into early next weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 3 am Sunday... Almost a persistence forecast today as the
synoptic situation is very similar to Saturday's. A broad
southwest flow will continue across the area at the mid levels
with the piedmont trough and sea breeze the important surface
features of note. Convection underperformed yesterday and last
evening and with some guidance, notably the NAM showing almost
dry conditions today, went with a lower pop forecast across the
board. The activity that does develop will take some time only
doing so very late in the day and extending into the evening.

High temperatures very similar to Saturday's as well with
readings at or just to the north of 90 with a slight nod to the
warmer guidance (nam) due to anticipated or lack of convection.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
As of 3 am Sunday... A river of elevated column moisture will
remain flowing over the region all of this time period. The
approach of a cyclone into the ohio valley Monday will draw a
rich vapor tap into the carolinas through early next week.

Tuesday night late, an attendant cold from will impinge the
i-95 corridor.

Boundaries spawned by the sea breeze, and the piedmont trough,
should help set the stage for lift this period, while a zone
of weak upper diffluence aids the updraft cause. Given the
moisture content, a torrential rainfall potential will exist.

A short-wave upper ridge over the area Monday will induce a
sluggish steering flow, while Tuesday storm motion increases.

Cell mergers boundary intersections could bring an isolated
severe gust because dry air above h5 results in notable dcape
values. Because of storm trajectories this period, activity over
the sea, should remain there, or just scrape CAPE fear into
daybreak. Daytime highs around normal but min-ts well above
average this period.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
As of 3 pm Saturday... Increasing troughiness over the great
lakes will push a cold front into the carolinas on Wednesday
leading to an increase in rain chances and possibly cooler high
temperatures due to cloud cover. This slow moving boundary will
take until Thursday night to push through, maintaining the trend
towards wetter and cooler weather. This puts us on the cool
side of the boundary Friday and Saturday. Highs both days could
stay capped in the lower 80s. The front will remain close enough
offshore to keep rain in the forecast. Late period surface
weather progs look more like those often seen in the cool
season.

Aviation 10z Sunday through Thursday
As of 12z...VFR primarily as convection remains isolated across
the region. Inland vcts aft 19z til 01z, then vcsh 1z-5z as
remnant convection plays out. Breezy at terminals today gusting
to 17-23 kt in the afternoon in blustery sw-ssw wind. Areas of
MVFR possible late in TAF period but confidence level low at
this time.

Extended outlook... Scattered showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon and evening, accompanied by brief MVFR conditions.

Cold front late in the period Thursday may cross all terminals
of SE nc and NE sc, bringing a surface wind-shift.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 3 am Sunday... Hopefully winds and seas have maxed out this
morning across the coastal waters. 41013 winds have been the
same for a couple of hours and fallen slightly at jmpn7. This
matches up well with wind progs showing the stronger winds
slowly exiting the region to the northeast. Conditions still
warrant the continuation of the scec headline for all waters
through the early afternoon hours. As for the details, expect
southwest winds of 15-20 knots mostly toward the lower end of
the range today with yet another uptick late tonight into Monday
morning. Significant seas will be 3- 5 feet for a few more
hours this morning dipping to 2-4 feet later today. There could
be another round of scec conditions tonight.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night ...

as of 3 am Sunday... Not 'joy-ride' marine conditions offshore,
as we are still faced with 20 kt SW gusts all of this period.

As a result, seas mostly wind-waves, will carry dominant wave
periods around 5 seconds, making for bumpy rides offshore. A
scec headline cannot be ruled out, if seas offshore rise near
5 ft. Scattered tstms will pose another layer of treachery, and
radar updates are encouraged before venturing to sea. Seas
around 3 ft, but 4-5 ft outer waters.

Long term Wednesday through Thursday ...

as of 3 pm Saturday... Long standing southwesterly flow still in
place early in the period as a cold front approaches from the
nw. This boundary and its associated pressure trough could
briefly cause winds to surge by a few knots early Wednesday;
only to relax with the further approach later in the day. The
front then pushes through on Thursday yielding a turn to
northerly winds. The 4 ft seas will likely be pushed outside of
the forecast zones as this occurs.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Beach hazards statement through this evening for scz054-056.

Nc... Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz106-108.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ilm
near term... Shk
short term... Mjc
long term... mbb
aviation... Mjc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 25 mi58 min SW 16 G 19 82°F 82°F1015.4 hPa
41159 25 mi36 min 82°F5 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi36 min WSW 9.9 G 14 80°F 79°F1016.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 28 mi36 min 79°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi58 min SW 14 G 18 79°F 79°F1015.1 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 30 mi58 min WSW 16 G 25 80°F 80°F1015.9 hPa
WLON7 35 mi42 min 78°F 82°F1015.9 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 41 mi36 min WSW 7 G 11
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 45 mi66 min WSW 12 G 15 1015.5 hPa (+1.8)

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC21 mi70 minSW 1010.00 miFair79°F73°F82%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:43 AM EDT     2.56 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:50 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:30 PM EDT     3.21 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:01 PM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.72.22.52.52.31.91.30.80.40.30.511.72.42.93.23.22.92.31.71.10.70.60.7

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:30 AM EDT     3.65 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:32 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:17 PM EDT     4.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:43 PM EDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.63.33.63.63.22.51.710.60.611.72.73.64.34.64.543.12.21.5111.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.