Wednesday, April25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Topsail Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 7:51PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 4:32 AM EDT (08:32 UTC) Moonrise 2:31PMMoonset 3:03AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 332 Am Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 6 to 9 ft, except 5 to 7 ft near shore. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy late. Scattered tstms with a slight chance of showers late.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft, except 4 to 6 ft near shore. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to light chop after midnight.
Thu..N winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 3 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat, increasing to light chop.
Sun..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Topsail Beach, NC
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location: 34.42, -77.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 250700
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
300 am edt Wed apr 25 2018

Synopsis
Daytime temperatures will rise to about normal for late april
much of the upcoming week, mainly upper 70s to around 80. A
series of low pressure systems, will bring isolated showers
today, and then a better chance of rain with isolated storms
Thursday night. A drying trend is expected into the weekend
through early next week, with seasonable temperatures, as a
canadian high drops into the mid-atlantic region.

Near term through tonight
As of 3 am Wednesday... Mid-level trough will slowly cross the
area this morning and exit to the northeast this afternoon.

Lingering moisture under the mid-level cold pool coupled with
diurnal heating usually produces at least some afternoon
convection. Forecast soundings hint at mid-level subsidence
developing this afternoon in the wake of the trough. This may
prevent deeper convection from developing, but still think low
topped showers will be possible across much of the area.

Coverage will be limited, but steep low level lapse rates and
moisture below 10k ft suggest some potential, especially across
the nc counties. Along with the isolated to scattered showers,
skies will become partly to mostly cloudy after a few hours of
heating. Do not expect much, if any lightning given the
subsidence around 10k ft. Upward motion will have trouble making
it to the freezing level, let alone generating any ice. Loss of
heating will bring an end to any shower potential and allow for
clearing skies overnight. Dry cold front moves off the coast as
the period comes to an end. Temperatures above climo continue
through the period with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows
in the mid to upper 50s.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
As of 3 am Wednesday... 'between 2 systems' begins the day
Thursday, and not a bad day with sunshine and 70s, before
clouds increase ahead of system 2. A smaller scale, but potent
short-wave will whip northward over our western frontier
Thursday night, offering a good chance of rain showers and
tstms, favored at this time near and along the i-95 lane,
significantly lesser QPF amounts near the coast.

This short-wave and attendant surface low arrive when the days
diurnal heat is about gone, and low-level winds appear only of
moderate strength. So although the system is a potent one, odds
of a severe hazard right now appear low < 5%, but any strong
showers or storms could produce 45 mph gusts, as convection
should remain mostly still be rooted, and influential to
surface conditions. Friday a day of drying with only isolated
showers and temps remaining mild as late april climate prevails.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 3 pm Tuesday... A deepening trough will exit the coast
late Saturday. After this short-wave trough clears the larger
scale trough will shift east of the united states and ridging
will become established. Warmer temperatures are on the horizon
with lower 80s by tue. The best chance of showers will be
Saturday evening with a chance of showers and maybe a rumble of
thunder.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 06z... Surface low just north of the area will continue
slowly moving away from the area this morning. Gradient will
keep boundary layer well mixed while the 5h low moving across
the area this morning spreads sct bkn patches of cloud around
6k ft over the area. Ceilings may lower as daybreak approaches,
but the only areas that appear to be in danger of dropping to
mvf are inland nc sites. Do not anticipate any fog development
despite recent heavy rainfall. Heating will increase cloud
cover across the area today with potential for some isolated
afternoon showers. Coverage will be limited and have not
included any mention in the forecast. Winds out of the west-
southwest this morning gradually veer to west-northwest during
the day as weak surface trough moves across the area. Skies will
quickly clear with the loss of heating this evening.

Extended outlook... Tempo MVFR Thu night through sat. Otherwise
vfr.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 3 am Wednesday... Small craft advisory continues for all
zones due to seas that have been slow to subside. Southwest
flow in the 10 to 15 kt range continues through the morning.

This should allow seas across sc zones the chance to drop under
6 ft a little after daybreak. Winds start to increase in the
afternoon as gradient tightens slightly in response to weak
surface trough moving into the area. Speeds will remain under 20
kt and direction will start to become more westerly, which may
still allow for expiration of the SCA for the nc zones later
this afternoon. Westerly flow around 10 kt through the evening
and into the overnight becomes northwest late in the period as
cold front moves across the region. Front lacks any real cold
advection and speeds will be 10 kt or less as the period ends.

Short term Thursday through Friday night ...

as of 3 am Wednesday... By Thursday morning, a cold front, not
that strong, will be moving south of the waters, with 10 kt n-ne
winds. This will only be brief, as winds quickly veer to S in
response to an approaching low pressure system. The low will
move north well west of the waters, so s-sw wind is maintained
through the period. SW gusts to 20 kt ought to be expected
Friday afternoon and evening ahead of the front, which crosses
the coast prior to daybreak Saturday. No advisories expected
with this system at this time, but it will be bumpy Friday.

Long term Saturday through Sunday ...

as of 320 pm Tuesday... High pressure will build over the waters
and winds and seas are expected to be at or below 15 knots and
no advisories are expected.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt this morning for amz254-
256.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for amz250-
252.

Synopsis... 8
near term... Iii
short term... Mjc
long term... Drh
aviation... Iii


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 25 mi84 min SW 12 G 16 68°F 67°F1005.9 hPa
41159 25 mi32 min 67°F8 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi44 min SW 5.1 G 7 63°F 64°F1007.9 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 28 mi32 min 61°F6 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi84 min SW 9.7 G 14 64°F 62°F1007 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 30 mi84 min SW 16 G 21 67°F 65°F1008.3 hPa
WLON7 35 mi44 min 61°F 64°F1007.6 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 41 mi44 min S 5.1 G 6 62°F 63°F1008.3 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 45 mi32 min S 5.1 G 6 1008.6 hPa (-1.5)

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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E19
G26
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G23
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G31
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SE11
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E14
NE12
NE8
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SW5
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E9
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G16
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NE11
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E16
E14
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G17
NE13
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E14
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E8
E15
E12

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC21 mi36 minSSW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy62°F61°F96%1007.7 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--E17
G24
E19
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E21
G28
E21
G30
E9E10E10E7SE9SE7E5E9SE8SE10SE10SE7SE8SW5S4S5S6S6S4
1 day agoNE7E6NE4E6E13E16
G24
E19
G26
SE15E15
G23
E19
G24
E18
G25
E16
G25
E16
G24
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E17E17
G27
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G25
E19
G26
E17
G26
SE13
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E11SE15
G22
SE13
G20
2 days agoNE3CalmNE5NE5E5E7E7SE10E6SE12SE12SE12SE10SE9SE9E8E7E7E7E5E7E6E7E11

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:30 AM EDT     3.25 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:56 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:08 PM EDT     3.01 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:16 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.71.42.22.93.23.22.82.21.30.60.1-0.10.20.71.52.22.832.92.41.60.90.30

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:17 AM EDT     4.65 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:38 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:55 PM EDT     4.30 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:58 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.32.33.44.24.64.53.92.81.60.60-00.41.32.43.44.14.343.22.110.30

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.