Sunrise 6:02 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 2:43 PM   Moonset 2:25 AM

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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 344 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday morning through Monday evening - .
Today - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Scattered tstms. A chance of showers. Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Scattered tstms with a chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight. Sun - N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. NEar shore, seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: N 3 ft at 4 seconds and S 2 ft at 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers.Sun night - N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 4 seconds and S 1 ft at 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening. Mon - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 3 seconds and S 1 ft at 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers in the morning. Mon night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 6 seconds and se 1 ft at 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight. Tue - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Tue night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight. Wed - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, diminishing to flat in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 344 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - A frontal boundary will stall across the waters today, then shift east tonight as another area of low pressure approaches from the west. That low will impact the area through early next week.

FXUS62 KILM 181058 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 658 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
A storm system will bring unsettled weather through Sunday before cooler and drier weather arrives Sunday night and persists through early week. Warmer temperatures and a gradual increase in rain chances is then expected mid to late next week.

UPDATE
Have trended pops down quite a bit through early afternoon to around 20-35%. Latest hi-res CAM guidance show only widely scattered light showers through midday, and that might be overdone based on the lack of expected pops overnight. Still expected some convection this afternoon with low end severe chances, with additional pops late evening with cold front.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Weak isentropic lift will produce scattered light showers and increasing low clouds through this morning. There may be a break in overall shower activity late morning-midday, around the time a pseudo-warm front lifts north across the area. A positively tilted shortwave trough moves across the Southeast today, initiating convection in the afternoon and early evening hours.
Breakup timing of the abundant low level clouds late morning will play a role in how much sunshine we get which will aid, or hinder, instability. Currently, guidance has sufficient instability and shear present beginning this afternoon to warrant a marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe weather from SPC, for isolated strong winds possible. Better rain, and possibly thunderstorm, chances may come late evening-early tonight as the upper trough reaches the Carolinas and a cold front moves across, with a focus on our northern counties. Areal QPF is meager, however there may be isolated pockets of 1-2" through tonight. Chance for fog tonight behind the cold front.
High temps today around 80F with dewpoints near 70F, and lows in the mid 60s tonight.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Highlights: *No significant weather expected

Confidence: *Moderate Sunday *Moderate to High Sunday night through Monday night

Details: Offshore low pressure looks to move farther away Sunday with drier high pressure building in from the north Sunday night.
Unsettled weather will likely persist Sunday, possibly into the evening, as moisture lingers behind the front and an upper trough moves through. Fortunately, severe weather and flooding are not expected.

High temps will remain cooler than normal through the period, possibly not much warmer than the mid 70s Sunday and mid to upper 70s Monday. Lows should mostly be in the mid to upper 50s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Highlights: *Low severe storm/flood risk possible Friday/Saturday

Confidence: *Moderate to High through Thursday night *Moderate Friday through Saturday

Details: Cool, dry high pressure should prevail through Tuesday night with temps near to below normal. Expect temperatures to rise to near to above normal levels thereafter as high pressure to the north shifts offshore setting up more southerly winds. It should remain dry until low rain chances return later Thursday and likely increase a bit through late week as a cold front approaches. There is some uncertainty regarding the strength/location of the front so for now we have kept rain chances pretty low. We may also see a low risk for severe weather/flooding return starting Friday.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Mid cloud deck around 5-8 kft has persisted over the area. Low stratus, and expected showers, have both not materialized as expected overnight. Have included a few hours of MVFR ceilings at TAF sites through midday, though confidence isn't the greatest. Best chance of thunder remains this afternoon into evening hours, with scattered convection possible. Timing of cold frontal passage tonight may determine chances for fog development inland by Sunday morning.

Extended Outlook...The next storm system and associated periodic flight restrictions will continue to affect the area Sat night into Mon. VFR to then mainly dominate thru Wed while high pressure takes more control.

MARINE
Through Tonight...Benign winds and seas across the local coastal waters tonight, with main hazard being a chance of thunderstorms late afternoon into overnight hours. Scattered showers possible this morning through midday with isolated thunder threat. Winds generally out of the SW around 10-15 kts into tonight before turning offshore by Sunday morning as a cold front moves off the coast. Seas continue to linger around 2 ft, with 3 footers in the outer coastal waters during the day, combination of a wind wave, a 1 ft ENE swell, and a 1 ft SE swell.

Sunday through Thursday...Offshore low pressure will be moving farther away as high pressure returns from the north into mid week before shifting offshore later in the period. The cooler/drier weather will lead to a tight pressure gradient and elevated winds/seas through Monday but a Small Craft Advisory is not expected. Conditions will then improve into mid week as high pressure moves closer to the area. Winds should increase Thursday as a stronger afternoon sea breeze develops.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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New River Inlet
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Sat -- 04:42 AM EDT     2.62 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:45 AM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
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