Thursday, July19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dawsonville, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 8:47PM Thursday July 19, 2018 2:06 AM EDT (06:06 UTC) Moonrise 12:45PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dawsonville, GA
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location: 34.43, -84.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Peachtree City, GA
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Fxus62 kffc 190128
afdffc
area forecast discussion
national weather service peachtree city ga
928 pm edt Wed jul 18 2018
update...

00z aviation update below. Forecast remains largely on track
through the rest of the evening. Isolated convection is present in
north georgia, particular in and to the immediate south of the
greater atlanta area. More widespread showers and thunderstorms
are present in east-central georgia, reflected by the higher pops
remaining in that area.

King
prev discussion... Issued 317 pm edt Wed jul 18 2018
short term tonight through Thursday night ...

a quick glance at the 18z water vapor loop clearly indicates
cyclonic flow across the eastern us and anticyclonic flow across the
desert southwest. Within this broader cyclonic flow regime... A
notable shortwave trough can be picked out across the dakotas... With
minor perturbations noted downstream and near the southeast. A lower
level view of the synoptic weather pattern portrays a broad area of
high pressure 1020mb+ centered around the great lakes and
extending from the plains all the way into the northeast. A weak
stalling cold front was found draped from the southern plains into
middle georgia.

For the rest of today and tonight: previously mentioned weak cold
frontal boundary will be the primary mechanism focus for convective
activity as it works in tandem with diurnal heating. Local WRF and
arw hi-res models have the best handle on the location of the
current convection at 18z and have tried to trend pops based on
these models' trends. This will place best chances for thunderstorms
across central georgia csg to mcn and areas south . A few of these
storms could become strong with gusty winds and heavy rain as lower
level lapse rates of >7c km exist amidst MLCAPE of 2000j kg while pw
values hover near 2 inches. There is some indication of near sunset
convection developing near metro atl which could continue a few
hours into the night if it occurs: evening shift will have to watch
trends. Early Thursday morning fog will be possible but will likely
be dependent on convective trends going into the overnight tonight.

For Thursday: 12z guidance continues to suggest the southeast will
be dominated by cyclonic flow within broader scale eastern us
trough. Previous day's dakotas shortwave will begin to dig into the
midwest... Allowing several shortwaves to move towards and into
georgia. As these shortwaves encounter stalled boundary across the
state... Convection will undoubtedly initiate. Trends currently favor
best coverage across eastern and central zones where best shortwave
activity is expected. Despite a nudge of high pressure down lee side
of appalachians in NE georgia... This area will still succumb to
deeper layer moisture and convective chances. Somewhat contrary to
Wednesday... Better forcing and slightly cooler mid level temps look
to allow for better chance for isolated severe storms during peak
heating and into the evening all across the area.

It has been a pleasure serving the wonderful people of north and
central georgia over the last four years. The next chapter is ready
to unfold in seattle but i'm grateful for all of the fond memories
and connections here. Thank you all :)
kovacik
long term Friday through Wednesday ...

no big changes to the extended. Broad troughing should continue to
dominate the southeast states while a weak boundary lingers over the
state. This should support pops through the period. Models indicate
that there could be a short wave in the northwest flow affecting us
late Friday into Saturday so likely pops look okay for Saturday.

41
prev long term discussion... Issued 335 am edt Wed jul 18 2018
long term Thursday night through Tuesday ...

extended forecast period continues to look somewhat unsettled,
especially the beginning as a fairly high amplitude upper-level
pattern evolves. By Friday, region comes under increasing
northwesterly flow aloft as eastern u.S. Upper low deepens. Saturday
still appears to be an active weather day as a fairly strong short
wave sweeps through the base of the upper low driving a surface cold
front into the state. Moderately unstable atmosphere and
strengthening mid-level winds combine with the enhanced lift for what
looks to be a good chance for organized, strong to severe
convection.

Some drier air tries to push in from the northwest behind this
system, however persistent weak upper troughing across the eastern
u.S. And a lingering surface boundary across the region should keep
chance pops going into the middle of next week.

20
aviation...

00z update...

some lingering tsra near the sites that should diminish mainly
before midnight then mostly clear skies tonight with some sct
cirrus and perhaps some MVFR CIGS coming in from the east after
06 09z - mcn and ahn have greatest chance (possibly ifr for mcn)
where the sites near atl are on the edge and included sct at 1200
ft. Wind shift from NW to NE near katl after about 08z tonight
then staying on east side through rest of period. CU field
tomorrow in 3-4 kft range with best chance afternoon storms in
18-00z window so have prob30 included.

Atl confidence... 00z update...

medium on extent of lower CIGS late tonight into tomorrow morning.

High on all else.

Baker

Preliminary point temps pops
Athens 72 87 71 86 30 60 40 40
atlanta 74 88 73 87 30 60 30 40
blairsville 65 83 66 82 20 50 30 40
cartersville 70 89 71 88 10 60 30 40
columbus 75 91 74 91 40 60 40 40
gainesville 71 86 70 85 30 60 30 40
macon 74 89 73 89 40 60 50 50
rome 69 90 71 90 10 30 30 40
peachtree city 73 89 72 88 30 50 30 40
vidalia 75 89 73 87 60 70 60 60

Ffc watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... Baker
long term... .King
aviation... Baker


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gainesville, Gilmer Memorial Airport, GA19 mi73 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F72°F82%1014.3 hPa

Wind History from GVL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4NW4W3W3N3CalmNW3E45E6SE5SE5E53CalmSE6SE5SE5NE7CalmE3CalmCalmNE3
1 day agoW4W7W4W4SW5SW3W5NW8W7NW5NW6W8SW9SW5W8W11NW7NW8SW7W6W7W5NW3W5
2 days agoSW3E3E5SE4CalmCalmCalmSW3Calm36SW7W76654S4SE4S3W5SW10
G16
W5W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Peachtree City, GA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Atlanta, GA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.