Sunrise 6:01 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 5:00 AM   Moonset 6:33 PM

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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 918 Am Pdt Mon May 6 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 3 pm pdt this afternoon through late tonight - .
Today - Western portion, W to nw winds 10 to 20 kt becoming 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Eastern portion, W winds 5 to 10 kt becoming 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 8 seconds. Tonight - Western portion, W to nw winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt late. Eastern portion, W winds 10 to 20 kt becoming 5 to 10 kt late. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 8 seconds, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft dominant period 8 seconds after midnight. Tue - Western portion, W to nw winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 20 to 30 kt with local gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Eastern portion, winds W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 9 seconds, building to 6 to 8 ft dominant period 8 seconds in the afternoon.Tue night - Western portion, W to nw winds 20 to 30 kt with local gusts to 35 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, W winds 15 to 25 kt becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 9 seconds. Wed - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Wed night - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the evening, becoming se 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 11 seconds. Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft. Fri - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft.

PZZ600 918 Am Pdt Mon May 6 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 16z, or 9 am pdt, a 1006 mb low was in southern california. A 1028 mb high was located 900 nm W of point conception. Gale force winds will affect the outer waters at times through mid week, with gusty winds spreading into portions of the inner waters at times.

FXUS66 KLOX 061836 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1136 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
06/426 AM.

A warming trend will establish through Wednesday as area sits between high pressure to the west and a trough to the east. Gusty northerly winds are expected at times, especially in the mountains and in southern Santa Barbara County. A return of low clouds and fog is expected through the week, possibly extending into the valleys over the weekend.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...06/858 AM.

***UPDATE***

The Frost Advisory has expired for the Cuyama Valley, Southern Salinas Valley, and San Luis Obispo County Interior Valleys -- where diurnal heating is lowering the risk for frost. The forecast has been updated to account for the expiration of the Frost Advisory.

Otherwise, the forecast is well on-track, and no other changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.

***From Previous Discussion***

The satellite imagery shows the region sitting in zonal flow between an upper-level ridge of high pressure building into the eastern Pacific Ocean and an upper-level trough over the northern Intermountain Region. Clearer skies and less wind across the area is setting up for a cool start to a May morning. Some wind sheltered areas are dipping down to the mid 30s to lower 40s to start today. With several hours until daybreak, a frost advisory was added for the coldest areas in the northern interior valleys through 8 am PDT this morning.

A northerly surface pressure gradient remains across the area in the wake of yesterday's cold front. The gradient has relaxed some this morning, and some the wind advisories have been allowed to expire. Winds are still remaining just strong enough through the Interstate 5 Corridor this morning to keep the wind advisory in place. Some weakening of the winds will continue through this morning, then the gradient will tighten again this afternoon into this evening. A wind advisory was extended for the Interstate 5 Corridor through 3 am PDT Tuesday, and reissued for southwestern Santa Barbara County from 4 pm PDT this afternoon through 3 am PDT Tuesday morning. There is a chance that the southeastern portion of Santa Barbara County could see some another round of gusty winds late tonight, but the chances looks less at this time.
Surface pressure gradients, local 3-km WRF, and EPS ensemble members all indicate gusty northerly winds lingering across southern Santa Barbara County and into the Interstate 5 Corridor again Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, so there will likely be another round of wind advisories across the same areas.

With the ridge aloft to the west of the area, a warming trend will take shape over the coming days with mostly sunny skies continuing.
Temperatures will warm to near to slightly above normal for most areas on Tuesday and above normal on Wednesday. Marine layer induced stratus clouds will likely be kept a bay (and very patchy at best) today due to a weaker marine inversion, but low clouds and fog could make a patchy appearance on Tuesday morning across the South Coast of Los Angeles County. The chances for low clouds and fog will increase through the week with the best chance for any low clouds and fog in the short term on Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning across the Los Angeles County coast and possibly extending into the Ventura County beaches.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...06/435 AM.

There is still a good amount of uncertainty in the long term period. Models are struggling to handle a retrograding upper- level trough of low pressure late in the week. The forecast ensembles are still trending higher with temperatures away from the coast while leveling off the warming trend along the coastal sections toward the weekend. There are still about a fifth of the solution going warmer for late week at the coast, but most trend cooler with increasing cloud cover means. Interior portions of the area have a good chance of seeing a steady warming trend through the week. For the current time, temperatures go with NBM values and moderate the warming trend toward at the coast into the weekend, while the forecast reintroduces a mention of low clouds and fog over the weekend.

AVIATION
06/1827Z.

At 18Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1400 ft deep. The top of the weak inversion was 1900 ft with a temperature of 13 C.

High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing except moderate confidence for KPRB and KLAX KLGB and KSMO where there is a 20-30 percent chance of low MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys between 09-17Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20-30% chance of low MVFR to IFR cigs from 11Z-17Z. There is a 30% chance of an E wind component 09Z-15Z.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF with VFR conds expected.

MARINE
06/908 AM.

Forecast on track this morning with no significant changes.

In the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in the forecast.
In the southern two zones (PZZ673/676), winds will increase to gale force by afternoon, then will continue thru late tonight.
Gale force winds are likely again Tue afternoon into Tue night (70% chance). Otherwise, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas are expected thru late Wed night. In the northern zone (PZZ670), SCA conditions are likely thru Wed night. There is a 50-60% chance of gale force winds Tue afternoon into Tue night.
SCA conds are not expected in the outer waters Thu thru Fri.

For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, moderate to high confidence in the forecast. Thru Wed night, winds are expected to reach SCA levels during the afternoon/eve hours. Seas may remain at or above SCA levels tonight thru Wed morning even after the winds decrease.
SCA cond are not expected Thu thru Fri.

In the Inner Waters S of Pt. Conception, moderate confidence in the forecast. Expect SCA level winds across much of the SBA Channel during the late afternoon thru late night hours today and Tue (60-70% chance), with slightly stronger winds Tue. There is a 30% chance of gales across western portions of the channel late Tue afternoon into Tue night. In the southern inner waters, there is a 40% chance of SCA level winds across NW portions from Anacapa Island to Malibu in the late afternoon/eve hours today and Tue.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 4 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 377-378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Watch in effect from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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Santa Barbara
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Mon -- 03:11 AM PDT     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:00 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:03 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:17 AM PDT     4.18 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:43 PM PDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:33 PM PDT     Moonset
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Mon -- 09:03 PM PDT     6.24 feet High Tide
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Santa Barbara, California, Tide feet

Rincon Island
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Mon -- 03:08 AM PDT     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:59 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:02 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:15 AM PDT     4.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:47 PM PDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:32 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:46 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:03 PM PDT     6.30 feet High Tide
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Rincon Island, California (2), Tide feet

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