Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mission Canyon, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 4:50PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 8:05 AM PST (16:05 UTC) Moonrise 11:58AMMoonset 10:47PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 208 Am Pst Wed Dec 12 2018
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 12 seconds.
Tonight..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 12 seconds.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 15 kt with local gusts to 20 kt S of ventura in the morning, becoming W in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 14 seconds.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 16 seconds.
Fri..E winds 5 to 15 kt in the morning, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 15 seconds.
Fri night..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 16 seconds.
Sat..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft. Chance of rain.
PZZ600 208 Am Pst Wed Dec 12 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 09z...or 1 am pst, a 1031 mb surface high was located 900 nm W of point conception, with a 1016 mb low over las vegas. Hazardous seas are likely Thursday through Saturday night across the outer coastal waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mission Canyon, CA
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location: 34.45, -119.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 121144
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
344 am pst Wed dec 12 2018

Synopsis 12 158 am.

Gusty offshore winds will develop by Thursday and will help to
bump afternoon temperatures above normal by midweek. Otherwise
there will be fair skies and dry conditions into the weekend then
a chance of rain on Sunday.

Short term (tdy-fri) 12 255 am.

Moderate offshore flow from the north (5 mb) and a little cool air
advection behind a very weak trof have created some north winds
across the mtns from sba to la. Advisory level wind gusts will
continue through late morning across the santa ynez range and the
sba south coast. The are many more mid and high clouds embedded in
the fast moving NW flow than previously thought and today will be
partly cloudy. The la coast and portions of the san gabriel vly
will have some morning low clouds as a weak eddy has spun up and
these two areas are fairly immune to north flow. Weaker offshore
flow from the east and the clouds will knock a few degrees off of
the high temps as compared to ydy.

Another weak trof will scoot down over the ridge this afternoon.

More importantly a strong cold sfc high will develop over the
great basin and will push the kdag grad all the way to -7.5 mb by
thu morning. There is no upper of thermal support but that much of
a sfc push will likely bring low end advisory wind gusts to some
mtn and vly locations. MAX temps across the coasts and vly will
jump up 3 to 6 degree and will be above normal. Hgts do not change
much and the interior will see little change in temperatures.

The ridge will shift east Friday as the next trough pushes closer
to the coast. Clouds will increase through the day as plenty of
mid and high level clouds move in ahead of the trof. What was once
a weak front with just enough oomph to bring some rain to northern
slo county is now a faded memory and the day will be dry. Hgts
will lower through the day as the trof approaches and the offshore
flow will relax. Both of these will bring a couple of degrees of
cooling to the entire forecast area.

Long term (sat-tue) 12 314 am.

Skies will clear on Saturday as the trof pushes off to the east.

Hgts will remain about the same as west flow establishes itself
over southern ca. There will still be some offshore flow but it
will be light. MAX temps will war a degree or two due to the
additional sunshine and will be above normal.

A larger trof will approach the area on Sunday. It will likely
bring clouds and lowering hgts which will in turn lower MAX temps
some. Despite the cooling MAX temps should remain a few degrees
above normal. Both the GFS and ec have been slowing the approach
of the trof and front and its doubtful that any rain will fall
during the day.

Both the GFS and ec agree that the trof passage will be both
weaker and slower than previously forecast. Still quite a bit of
uncertainty in the exact timing of the rain but right now it
looks like most areas (esp areas north of pt conception) will see
a little rain either late Sunday night or sometime Monday.

Rainfall amounts will be on the light side.

Skies will clear Monday night in the wake of the trof and a little
sub advisory offshore wind event will set up.

Both the GFS and ec are in excellent agreement for mid to late
next week showing a strong high pressure ridge over california
with a 590dm center just southwest of pt conception. This combined
with light to moderate offshore flow should lead to a significant
warm up for the remainder of next week. Could be some fire
weather concerns across la ventura counties with low humidities,
gusty northeast winds, and well above normal temperatures.

Aviation 12 1143z.

At 1051z at klax, the marine layer was 1000 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 1700 ft with a temperature of 18 c.

Overall high confidence in the 00z TAF package withVFR conds,
except for low to moderate confidence in kprb, klax, ksmo and
klgb. There is a 50 percent that ifr MVFR CIGS occur through 17z.

Except kprb has a 40% chance for vlifr to ifr CIGS through 16z
klax... Moderate confidence in 12z TAF through 17z with ifr MVFR
cigs... Otherwise high confidence after that. There is a 20
percent chc of an east wind component greater of 8 kt through
16z.

Kbur... High confidence in cavu taf. 20$ chance for MVFR CIGS from
13z-17z.

Marine 12 158 am.

For the outer waters, high confidence in current forecast. Small
craft advisory (sca) level winds will continue through this evening.

For Thursday through the weekend, SCA level seas are likely as a
large, long-period swell moves into the coastal waters.

For the inner waters north of point sal, moderate to high confidence
in current forecast. There is a 20% chance of SCA level northwest
winds this afternoon and evening. For Thursday through the
weekend, SCA level seas are likely.

For the inner waters south of point conception, moderate
confidence in current forecast. There is a 30% chance of sca
level northeast winds on Thursday nearshore from ventura south to
santa monica.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Wind advisory in effect until noon pst today for zones 39-52. (see laxnpwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm pst this evening
for zones 670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (fri-tue)
High surf and dangerous rip currents are expected on the central
coast through Saturday, possibly expanding to most beaches on
Saturday and continuing through Monday.

Public... Rorke
aviation... Kaplan
marine... Kaplan smith
synopsis... Kj
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 3 mi89 min N 5.1 G 5.1 53°F 1018.8 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 16 mi25 min NE 1.9 G 3.9 60°F 61°F1018.7 hPa57°F
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 24 mi44 min 60°F5 ft
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 44 mi55 min 19 G 25
46251 48 mi35 min 61°F6 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA7 mi72 minENE 310.00 miFair45°F37°F77%1018.3 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA23 mi70 minENE 410.00 miFair36°F33°F93%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE53SW6SW5W5W6W4W3SE3CalmE3NW3NW5Calm4NW5CalmCalm4Calm3NE3W3
1 day agoCalmS3E7S5SE4S5SE5W3S4CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmW4CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmS63SW6CalmW6W6W7W5NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmSW3

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, California (2)
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:53 AM PST     3.50 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:46 AM PST     2.98 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:55 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:57 AM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:41 AM PST     4.59 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:49 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:27 PM PST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:47 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.13.43.53.43.2333.13.43.84.24.54.64.33.83.12.21.40.80.50.50.81.42.1

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, California (2)
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:48 AM PST     3.57 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:42 AM PST     3.19 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:54 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:56 AM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:36 AM PST     4.68 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:48 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:23 PM PST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:46 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.23.53.63.53.33.23.23.33.644.44.64.74.43.83.12.21.40.80.50.60.91.52.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.