Saturday, August19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mission Canyon, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 7:41PM Saturday August 19, 2017 11:34 AM PDT (18:34 UTC) Moonrise 4:04AMMoonset 6:18PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 856 Am Pdt Sat Aug 19 2017
Today..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening...becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sun night..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Mon..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening...becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog.
PZZ600 856 Am Pdt Sat Aug 19 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 15z...or 8 am pdt...a 1030 mb surface high was about 600 nm W of eureka and a 1005 mb low was near las vegas.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mission Canyon, CA
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location: 34.45, -119.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 191623
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
923 am pdt Sat aug 19 2017

Synopsis
A weak trough of low pressure over the offshore islands will keep
a cooler air mass in place into early next week. Night through
morning low clouds with drizzle at times are forecast for the
coastal and valley areas into next week as a persistent marine
layer remains in place. There is an outside chance of showers and
thunderstorms through early next week for the mountains and
desert.

Update (tdy-mon)
the morning clouds made it further into the san fernando and san
gabriel valley areas than was expected, but are quickly
retreating to the coast. Clouds are thickly along the coast from
ventura through slo county and will be less quick to clear in
those areas. Noted that SPC has a swath of la, vtu and sba county
in a risk of thunder today and the RFC has even but some
precipitation (0.01") in their forecast along the ventura and
santa barbara county border in the mountainous area. That all
matches up well with out area with a slight chance of
precipitation or thunderstorms this afternoon. Looking for clouds
to start forming a little after noon.

*** from previous discussion ***
a weak trough of low pressure continues to spin counterclockwise
over the southern california bight. The trough, centered between
the channel islands and san nicolas island will wobble around the
bight into midweek next week. The latest fog product shows a
better entrenched marine layer stratus deck starting to develop
this morning as the trough deepens the marine layer and
strengthens onshore flow. Onshore pressure gradients are already
showing close to a millibar more onshore than this time yesterday.

A cooling trend will develop through the weekend, with coastal
locations hovering near persistence for much of early next week.

With increasing onshore flow with the trough, the marine layer
depth will deepen over the next couple of days. The marine depth
currently around 1500 feet should deepen to between 2000-2500
feet by Sunday morning, if nam-wrf solutions are correct. Possible
additional deepening could take place on Monday. With a veering
flow with height, some additional deepening could occur, lifting
the marine layer depth to closer to 2500-3500 feet tonight and
again Monday. With the favorable flow pattern through the mixed
layer and some weak instability aloft with the trough, the marine
layer stratus could get lifted enough to squeeze out some drizzle
or light rain showers. Pops were nudged up to near 10 percent to
account for the possibility of drizzle and mentions of drizzle
was added to the forecast.

Model solutions continue hint at the possibility of isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening
through Monday, and maybe into Tuesday. Pops have been left
untouched with regards to the convective activity. Favorable negative
lifted index and positive CAPE values exist over the mountains
the next several days. The steering flow is quite light today and
any storms that develop could be slow-moving. As a result, local
flooding could develop in or near showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening.

Long term (tue-fri)
the trough will linger over the region into Wednesday, likely
keeping an extended period of below normal temperatures, strong
onshore flow in place, and a deep marine layer over the area. A
threat for night through morning drizzle, and mountain and desert
showers and thunderstorms could linger into Wednesday, especially
with moisture and instability moving over the region into midday
Wednesday.

Drier southwest flow should develop for late next week, allowing
for some warming to take shape but keeping the coast and lower
valleys in a more persistent onshore flow pattern. Warming trend
continues away from the coast for late next week.

Aviation 19 1025z...

at 1015z, the marine inversion was based at 1500 feet. The top of
the inversion was 4300 feet with a temperature of 24 degrees
celsius.

Overall, moderate confidence in 12z TAF package. For coastal and
valley sites, current ifr MVFR conditions should dissipate by
late morning withVFR conditions this afternoon. For tonight,
marine inversion should deepen with CIGS arriving this evening.

Klax... Moderate confidence in 12z taf. MVFR CIGS could dissipate
up to 2 hours later than current 1730z forecast. For tonight,
return of MVFR CIGS could be + -2 hours of current 02z forecast.

Kbur... Moderate confidence in 12z taf. There is a 40% chance that
conditions will remainVFR this morning. For tonight, return of
cig restrictions could be + - 2 hours of current 07z forecast.

There is a 50% chance that CIGS tonight could initially develop at
ifr levels.

Marine 19 900 am...

for the outer waters, high confidence in current forecast.

Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory
(sca) levels through Tuesday. On Wednesday, there is a 50% chance
of winds increasing to SCA levels.

For the inner waters, high confidence in current forecast. Winds
and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through
Wednesday, though local gusts to 20 kt are possible through the
san pedro channel this afternoon and evening.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Beach hazards statement in effect from 5 pm pdt this
afternoon through Sunday evening for zones 40-41. (see laxcfwlox).

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (mon-fri)
isolated showers and thunderstorms for the mountains and desert
cannot be ruled out for Monday and Tuesday.

Public... Hall jld
aviation... Thompson
marine... Mw
synopsis... Hall
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 3 mi58 min SW 6 G 6 61°F 1015.4 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 16 mi34 min W 3.9 G 5.8 62°F 66°F1016.1 hPa (+0.4)60°F
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 24 mi94 min 67°F2 ft
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 44 mi34 min W 3.9 G 5.8 61°F 62°F1015.1 hPa (+0.4)58°F
46251 48 mi43 min 68°F3 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA7 mi41 minSSW 68.00 miOvercast66°F61°F84%1015 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA23 mi59 minW 410.00 miFair68°F55°F64%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7S7W7W9W10W10W9W4CalmSE4SE4E6E8SE7E5E5E5SE5E5SE4SE4SW4SW6SW6
1 day agoSW8W7W10W10W10W10W10W11W6CalmSE4E4E3E4E5CalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE7SE11SE8
2 days agoS7SW5S7W7W9W10W10W6W6W3CalmCalmE3E4CalmNE3NE4E4NE4E4E5S6SE7S7

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:48 AM PDT     -0.61 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:04 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:22 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:22 AM PDT     4.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:14 PM PDT     1.99 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:18 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:40 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:32 PM PDT     6.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.80.5-0.4-0.6-0.20.71.933.84.24.23.732.422.12.83.84.95.96.56.55.94.7

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:47 AM PDT     -0.82 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:03 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:22 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:14 AM PDT     4.45 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:18 PM PDT     1.81 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:17 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:39 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:32 PM PDT     6.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.60.3-0.6-0.8-0.30.61.93.144.44.33.732.21.81.92.63.64.85.96.66.65.94.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.