Wednesday, September26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mission Canyon, CA

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What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 6:51PM Tuesday September 25, 2018 9:23 PM PDT (04:23 UTC) Moonrise 7:37PMMoonset 7:14AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 816 Pm Pdt Tue Sep 25 2018
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 8 seconds.
Wed..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 6 seconds.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 20 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Thu..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 6 seconds.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 6 seconds.
Fri..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 5 seconds.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 5 seconds.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft.
PZZ600 816 Pm Pdt Tue Sep 25 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 03z...or 8 pm pdt, a 1030 mb high was located 500 nm W of seattle. A 1010 mb low was located near yuma, arizona.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mission Canyon, CA
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location: 34.45, -119.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 260324
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
824 pm pdt Tue sep 25 2018

Synopsis 25 711 pm.

Fair skies, except for an overnight coastal marine layer that may
spread to some valleys into next week. A high will move in midweek
for a warming trend into Thursday. Then a low should arrive by
Friday for a cooling trend into next week, with temperatures below
normal and more clouds. Patchy overnight drizzle may occur early next
week south of lompoc.

Short term (tue-fri) 25 823 pm.

Satellite imagery showing low clouds and fog making a return
to coastal areas this evening across los angeles, ventura, and
santa barbara counties. An upper level ridge of high pressure
will continue to build over the region during the next 24 hours
resulting in a shrinkage of the marine layer depth. Earlier this
morning, the marine layer depth was around 2500 feet across the
la basin, with current acars data now showing a depth around
1600 feet. By Wednesday morning, the marine layer depth is
expected to shrink to around 1200 feet. As a result, expecting
low clouds and fog to mainly be confined to coastal areas tonight
into Wednesday morning, extending locally into some of the lower
valleys.

Onshore pressure gradients are trending weaker this evening as
compered to yesterday evening, and this weakening of onshore flow
will continue through Wednesday morning. In fact, some light
offshore winds are expected to develop overnight into Wednesday
across the mountains and deserts, extending into some of the
interior valleys. Offshore wind speeds will mainly be in the 10 to
20 mph category, but could see isolated gusts up to 30 mph in
favored mountain locations on Wednesday. This offshore component
combined with the upper level ridge of high pressure will result
in a faster burnoff of the low clouds and bring substantial
warming across interior sections. In fact, many valley, lower
mountain, and desert locations will climb well into the 90s on
Wednesday, with warmest locations potentially climbing to around
100 degrees on Thursday. These very warm temperatures combined
with low humidities. Breezy offshore conditions, and very dry
fuels will lead to elevated fire weather concerns across interior
sections on Wednesday, continuing into Thursday.

*** from previous discussion ***
cooling trend to begin Friday as onshore flow will definitely be
stronger. Models in good agreement showing the upper low at the
base of the rex block near 33n 140w finally shifting slowly
northeast to near 38n 130w Friday afternoon, or about 500 miles
west of the bay area. Assuming this happens we should see surface
pressures lowering inland allowing that onshore flow to increase.

There also is some cooling aloft that will increase the marine
layer depth. Interestingly models show some drying in the boundary
layer Thu into Fri south of pt conception, suggesting a
substantial decrease in stratus coverage both days. Not much
confidence in this either and will continue with a solid marine
layer north to south for now.

Long term (sat-tue) 25 159 pm.

The Friday upper low continues its northeast movement into nrn
ca and or with the trough extending south through SRN ca. A
cooling trend with a deepening marine layer will continue through
the weekend with temps 3-6 degrees below normal on average. May
even be some spotty drizzle at times across coast valleys south of
pt conception.

Confidence in the forecast drops off considerably starting next
Monday as a complex upper level pattern sets up along the west
coast. Models are really struggling handling a number of
significant factors including a tropical system off the coast of
mexico (rosa), several other tropical systems across the pacific,
and a pretty deep upper level trough approaching the west coast.

Solutions have varied quite a bit run to run and there's a very
large spread in the ensembles. At this point it appears that the
influence of rosa will be minimal locally as models have it
tracking too far south and east, though timing and strength are
very different between the models. The best chance for any
precipitation here will probably be from the upper trough
approaching from the west but there are a number of complicating
factors with that too, including how much moisture will be
available, timing, and strength. And model solutions will likely
change several times between now and next week. But for now feel
like it's worth introducing small precip chances into the forecast
for next Monday and Tuesday, again mainly from the upper trough
but also the very small probability that moisture from rosa will
drift into our area. Either, neither, or both are possible
scenarios next week and it may take a few more days at least
before confidence in one solution improves. Until then enjoy the
model roller coaster.

Aviation 26 0018z.

At 2345z, the marine layer depth was near 2000 feet deep at klax.

The top of the inversion was around 4000 feet with a temperature
of 24 degrees celsius.

Satellite imagery showing low clouds making a quick return late
this afternoon to coastal portion of sba, ventura, and la
counties. The marine layer depth is expected to shrink overnight
to less than 1500 feet, keeping most of the low clouds confined
to coastal areas and the san gabriel valley. As a result, there
is increasing probability of widespread ifr CIGS across coastal
taf locations tonight, potentially reaching lifr conditions
in some locations.

Klax... Sct-bkn012-015 conditions expected at klax through 03z
then MVFR ifr CIGS expected to prevail tonight into Wednesday
morning. Clearing time expected to be sooner on Wednesday, most
likely around 19z.

Kbur... There is a 30 percent chance of marine clouds and fog
sneaking into the airfield late tonight into early Wednesday
morning.

Marine 25 740 pm.

For the outer waters, moderate to high confidence in wind and sea
conditions remaining below small craft advisory levels (sca)
through Friday. There is a 30 percent chance of small craft
advisory winds for the outer waters near point conception
Wednesday evening, and again Friday afternoon and evening.

No SCA issues expected for the inner waters through at least
Friday, and likely through the weekend.

Areas of dense fog with visibility one nautical mile or less will
likely affect portions of the coastal waters N of point
conception, including the nearshore waters north of point sal,
late tonight through Wednesday morning.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (fri-tue)
No significant hazards expected.

Public... Gomberg mw
aviation... Gomberg
marine... Smith
synopsis... Stu
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 3 mi47 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 60°F 1013.7 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 16 mi33 min W 12 G 16 61°F 66°F3 ft1013.5 hPa60°F
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 24 mi32 min 66°F2 ft
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 44 mi33 min 18 G 23 4 ft1012.9 hPa
46251 48 mi53 min 70°F3 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA7 mi30 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds60°F55°F86%1013 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA23 mi28 minSW 510.00 miFair57°F51°F82%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE3E4E4S6SE7SE5CalmSW3SW3Calm3SW4SW4SW6SW10W7SW8W8W7W10W8W4Calm
1 day agoE4E5E5SE4SE6SE6NE4NE53NE5SE4E5SE5SE5SE8SE9S10S9W8W10W11W7W4Calm
2 days agoE3NE6E4E3E4E3E3S4E3CalmSW3CalmS6SW7S5S5SW7SW8W10W12W10W6W3E4

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.