Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mission Canyon, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 7:43PM Friday August 18, 2017 9:23 AM PDT (16:23 UTC) Moonrise 3:01AMMoonset 5:25PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 838 Am Pdt Fri Aug 18 2017
Today..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening...becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sat..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening...becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 10 seconds.
Sun..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 10 seconds.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening...becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 10 seconds.
Mon..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft.
PZZ600 838 Am Pdt Fri Aug 18 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 15z...or 8 am pdt...a 1025 mb surface high was about 550 nm west of eureka and a 1008 mb low was near las vegas.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mission Canyon, CA
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location: 34.45, -119.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 181130
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
430 am pdt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
A weak trough of low pressure will keep the air mass on the cool
side of seasonal normals into early next week. A persistent marine
layer will continue to bring night through morning low clouds and
fog for the coastal areas, extending into the valleys over the
weekend and into next week. There is an outside chance of showers
and thunderstorms over the weekend across the higher terrain.

Short term (tdy-sun)
moderate onshore flow remains in place across the region this
morning as a weak trough of low pressure is centered over the
offshore islands this morning. Marine layer induced low clouds and
fog are struggling to form, due to warmer ocean temperatures and
the lack of a stronger marine inversion. Coverage will be patchy
at the coastal areas this morning, with a chance of some intrusion
into the lower valley areas such as the san gabriel and santa ynez
valleys. A better chance of stratus formation looks to occur over
the weekend.

The trough will wobble around the southern california bight into
next week. Some weakening of the trough will occur through
Saturday as 500 mb heights climb slightly, then the trough will
deepen and slowly lift out of the region around midweek next
week. Of consequence, onshore flow will weaken into Saturday, then
start to trend more strongly onshore early next week. A marine
layer depth near 1000 feet this morning should deepen through the
weekend, possibly deepening to near 2000-2500 feet by Monday. Near
persistence seems to be the best forecast for the immediate
coastal locales through the weekend and into early next week. Away
from the coast, temperatures will cool for early next week, after
a slight warm-up today and Saturday.

The instability with the trough could add a wrinkle to the
forecast through weekend and possibly into early next week. East
to southeast flow aloft could draw in some marginal moisture that
could interact with the orographic effects and the trough's
instability the next several afternoons and evenings. While low
confidence, pops have been bumped up with isolated showers and
thunderstorms added for the mountain area into Sunday, and maybe
Monday. Nam-wrf solutions put emphasis on the ventura and santa
barbara county mountains this afternoon and evening, with decent
lifted index and CAPE values, then shift to a broader focus for
the weekend. Certainly, areas to the north and south as will be
drier as models bring a marginally moist tongue into the area,
while wrapping drier air around the trough's counterclockwise
circulation.

Long term (mon-thu)
a deepening marine layer should start to occur early next week as
the trough deepens and slowly lifts out of the region through
Wednesday. Night through morning drizzle cannot be ruled out for
the southland early next week as the marine layer depth will
likely deepen substantially between Monday and Wednesday. Current
forecast keeps marine layer depths inline with 2000-2500 feet, but
a depth up to near 4000 feet between Tuesday and Wednesday would
not be shocking. A general cooling trend should be expected into
midweek next week as the trough wobbles around and creates ebbs
and flows of the marine intrusion.

Drier southwest flow aloft looks to develop for the latter half of
next week as the trough lifts out. Another weak trough of low
pressure reforms off the pacific northwest coast and a ridge of
high pressure remains centered over the southeast states. Whether
a warm-up occurs for the latter half of next week remains to be
seen as GFS model solutions are trending towards the ecmwf
solution with developing another trough along the california
coast.

Aviation 18 1130z...

at 1115z, the marine inversion at klax was based at 700 feet. The
top of the inversion was 2400 feet with a temperature of 22
degrees celsius.

Overall, low confidence in coastal tafs and high confidence in
valley desert tafs. For coastal tafs, low confidence in timing of
arrival and dissipation this morning and again tonight.

Klax... Low confidence in 12z taf. Current cig restrictions could
dissipate + - 3 hours of current 17z forecast. For tonight,
moderate confidence in return of ifr cigs, but low confidence in
timing (+ - 3 hours of current 09z forecast).

Kbur... High confidence in 12z taf.

Marine 18 200 am...

for the outer waters, high confidence in current forecast. Through
Tuesday, winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory (sca) levels.

For the inner waters, high confidence in current forecast. Winds
and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Tuesday.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (sun-thu)
a high risk of rip currents exists at area beaches through the
weekend. Isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out
for Sunday and Monday.

Public... Hall
aviation... Thompson
marine... Thompson
synopsis... Hall
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 3 mi54 min E 6 G 8.9 63°F 1016.3 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 16 mi44 min WSW 7.8 G 7.8 62°F 66°F1016.7 hPa61°F
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 24 mi54 min 67°F3 ft
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 44 mi44 min NW 14 G 18 61°F 61°F1016 hPa59°F
46251 48 mi63 min 68°F4 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA7 mi31 minSE 78.00 miFair68°F62°F81%1015.8 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA23 mi49 minN 07.00 miFair59°F53°F82%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7S7SW8W7W10W10W10W10W10W11W6CalmSE4E4E3E4E5CalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE7
1 day agoSE5S5S7SW5S7W7W9W10W10W6W6W3CalmCalmE3E4CalmNE3NE4E4NE4E4E5S6
2 days agoSW5SW7S7SW9SW8SW5W10W10W10W7W3CalmNE9E6E5E4N3NE4NE4CalmNE4NE5CalmS4

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:02 AM PDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:01 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:22 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:38 AM PDT     4.00 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:20 PM PDT     2.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:24 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:42 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:42 PM PDT     6.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90-0.3-0.10.71.62.63.43.943.73.12.62.22.32.83.74.75.76.36.45.94.93.4

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:02 AM PDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:00 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:21 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:33 AM PDT     4.11 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:25 PM PDT     2.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:23 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:40 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:42 PM PDT     6.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.8-0.1-0.4-0.20.61.62.73.644.13.73.12.52.22.22.73.64.65.66.36.45.94.83.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.