Sunday, December17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mission Canyon, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 4:52PM Sunday December 17, 2017 5:45 AM PST (13:45 UTC) Moonrise 7:19AMMoonset 5:49PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 238 Am Pst Sun Dec 17 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Today..Eastern portion, ne winds 20 to 25 kt becoming 15 to 20 kt by the afternoon. Western portion, winds variable 10 kt or less becoming sw 5 to 10 kt by the afternoon. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 13 seconds. Areas of smoke.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 12 seconds. Areas of smoke.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt in the morning, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Mon night..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 11 seconds.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Tue night..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 12 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft.
PZZ600 238 Am Pst Sun Dec 17 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 10z...or 2 am pst...there was a 1028 mb high was located over idaho and a 1006 mb low pressure center was located over southern california. Gusty offshore winds are expected nearshore from ventura to santa Monica, and across the san pedro channel, today. Smoke from the thomas fire may locally reduce visibilities down to 2 nm for portions of the coastal waters near and south of point conception.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mission Canyon, CA
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location: 34.45, -119.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 171247
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
447 am pst Sun dec 17 2017

Synopsis
Strong northeast winds will affect ventura and los angeles
counties today. Dry and more tranquil weather is expected Monday
through Tuesday. Another round of strong northerly winds may affect
the region by late Wednesday, with santa ana winds possible
Thursday into the weekend.

Short term (tdy-tue)
the strong and gusty northerly winds which caused a significant
flareup of the sba portion of the thomas fire near montecito
Saturday have weakened significantly early this morning, which is
very good news for the firefighting efforts. Red flag warnings
and wind advisories across santa barbara county have been allowed
to expire.

Unfortunately the transition of the winds to a more northeasterly
direction, responsible for the weaker winds in santa barbara
county, has caused the focus of the gusty winds to shift to los
angeles and ventura counties early this morning. Widespread gusty
northeast winds were already affecting most of ventura county, the
mountains and valleys of los angeles county, and the l.A. County
coastal plain below passes and canyons from malibu to the
hollywood hills. The upper system that moved through the region
on Sat was rather vigorous, somewhat more so than shown by the
computer models. Strong subsidence and cold air advection helped
to maximize wind speeds across sba county yesterday, and was
helping to do so across l.A. And vtu counties this morning. The
upper low was located over the northern gulf of california early
this morning, and will move continue to move eastward today. A
strong north to northeast jet behind this departing upper low will
continue to provide good upper support for winds this morning.

Have bumped up the winds in the forecast for l.A. And vtu counties
for this morning and early this afternoon. Have upgraded wind
advisories to high wind warnings for the mtns of vtu and l.A.

Counties including the santa monica range, with wind advisories
across most of the remainder of those counties except for the
antelope valley. Winds will begin to decrease across l.A. And vtu
counties during mid afternoon. MAX temps should be up a few
degrees today west of the mountains, with cooling in the mountains
and deserts.

The upper low will continue to move to the east tonight and mon
as an upper ridge moves into the west coast. Low level gradients
will remain offshore tonight and mon, as they have just about
this entire month. Gradients will be steep enough to generate some
gusty northeast winds across the mtns and valleys of l.A. And vtu
counties and the vtu county coastal plain, but winds should be
mostly below advisory levels. The possible exception will be
across the mtns, and wind advisories may be needed there through
mon morning once the high wind warnings expire. Expect some
warming in most areas on mon, except across the coastal plain,
where MAX temps should be similar to those today.

The upper ridge will begin to flatten some Mon night and Tue and
low level gradients will turn onshore. This should bring some
cooling to most areas west of the mountains, with little change
in the mountains and deserts. Do not expect any wind issues across
the region Mon night and tue.

Due to the clear skies and very dry airmass across the region, it
will be quite chilly each night in wind sheltered locations
tonight and Mon night. Frost advisories may be needed for the
central coast, the south coast of sba county, and the ojai valley
each night.

Long term (wed-sat)
there is less confidence than normal in the extended period
since the models have exhibited poor run to run consistency.

However, the models are is fairly good agreement this morning.

The general idea on the latest runs of the GFS and ec is that
an upper trough will drop southeastward through the pac NW wed
and evolve into a closed low as it pushes into utah by early thu.

Steepening north to south gradients, decent subsidence, and strong
northerly flow aloft should bring another round of gusty north
winds to sba county late Wed into Wed night, followed by gusty
northeast santa ana winds across l.A. And vtu counties Thu into
fri. At this time, it looks like at least a moderate wind event,
with wind advisory level winds in most wind prone locations.

However, models have been oscillating between this synoptic
pattern and a moderate wind event, and a synoptic pattern
with a strong upper low digging closer to the region, bringing
a very strong and damaging wind event for Thu into fri. This will
continue to be monitored closely. In the current model solutions,
expect weakening off any northeast winds Fri afternoon, with
generally benign weather on sat.

Skies will be mostly clear thru the period, except for some clouds
on northern slopes Wed night into thu. Below normal temps are
expected Wed and thu, with temps generally near normal
fri, and a bit above normal sat.

Aviation 17 1145z
at 1040z at klax, there was no marine layer. There was a sfc
based inversion with a top near 1000 feet and a MAX temperature 18
degrees celsius.

Vfr conditions are expected throughout the period, except for a chance
of MVFR conditions in smoke at santa barbara county terminals. Periods
light to moderate wind shear and turbulence are possible at all
terminals through 20z.

Klax... Good confidence in cig vis portions of the taf. Lower
confidence in the wind forecast. But only a 20 percent chc of east
winds greater than 8 kt. Lgt turbc at times durgd.

Kbur... Good confidence in cig vis portions of the taf. Lower
confidence in the wind forecast. There is a 40 percent chc of
north to northeast winds at times through 20z. Lgt turbc at times
durgd.

Marine 17 230 am
across the outer waters... Small craft advisory (sca) level will
continue into the afternoon. Large seas consisting of a longer
period NW swell and wind waves will subsiding below 10 feet later
this afternoon. There is a 30 percent chance that seas remain
over 10 feet through the evening. The large seas are also
affecting pzz645.

Across the inner waters south of point conception... SCA level ne
winds are expected from ventura to anacapa island south to santa
monica and from san pedro to catalina island late through this
afternoon. These winds will create choppy seas and short period
wind waves which could affect avalon and other east facing harbors
in the channel islands.

There will continue to be areas of smoke from the thomas fire
over portions of the coastal waters, mainly from the waters west
of ventura county through the santa barbara channel and over
portions of the outer waters. Visibilities could locally drop to 2
nm or lower at times.

Fire weather 17 400 am.

A red flag warning is in effect for much of los angeles and
ventura counties through 8 pm this evening.

For much of ventura and los angeles counties, santa ana winds
will peak this when gusts between 40 and 55 mph are expected,
except 60 to 65 mph in the mountains. A red flag warning is in
effect through this evening for much of los angeles and ventura
counties. There is the potential for another round of gusty
sundowner winds Wednesday into early Thursday, followed by a
potential santa ana winds Thursday into and least fri.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... High surf advisory in effect until 9 am pst this morning for
zones 34-35. (see laxcfwlox).

Wind advisory in effect until 3 pm pst this afternoon for
zones 40-41-44-45-88-547. (see laxnpwlox).

High wind warning in effect until 3 pm pst this afternoon for
zones 46-53-54. (see laxnpwlox).

Red flag warning in effect until 8 pm pst this evening for
zones 240-241-244>246-253-254-288-547-548. (see laxrfwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect until 10 am pst this morning
for zone 645. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm pst this afternoon
for zones 650-655-670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (tue-sat)
critical fire weather conditions are possible with gusty
sundowner winds Wednesday night and gusty offshore winds
Thursday and Friday.

Public... Db
aviation... Rorke
marine... Rorke
fire... Gomberg db
synopsis... Db
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 3 mi70 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 53°F 1011.2 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 16 mi46 min NNW 1.9 G 3.9 58°F 61°F1011.8 hPa (+0.7)52°F
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 24 mi46 min 61°F5 ft
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 44 mi46 min NW 1.9 G 5.8 58°F 58°F1010.9 hPa (+0.7)
46251 48 mi46 min 59°F8 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA7 mi53 minN 010.00 miSmoke39°F30°F70%1011 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA23 mi51 minNNE 410.00 miFair36°F24°F65%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE16
G21
N9CalmCalmS73S5S4E5CalmN6N9NE34CalmNE3W6CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6W433W7W7W3CalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE6E5CalmW11E3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S5CalmCalmW6W7CalmW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:04 AM PST     2.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:18 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:59 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:25 AM PST     5.62 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:35 PM PST     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:49 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:50 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:18 PM PST     3.49 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:31 PM PST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.82.42.22.32.83.64.45.25.65.5542.61.30.2-0.4-0.400.81.72.63.23.53.4

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:02 AM PST     2.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:17 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:58 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:19 AM PST     5.94 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:27 PM PST     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:48 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:50 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:54 PM PST     3.79 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:31 PM PST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.82.32.12.32.93.84.75.55.95.85.142.61.20.1-0.4-0.40.11.12.133.63.83.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.