Wednesday, March22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mission Canyon, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:14PM Wednesday March 22, 2017 5:28 PM PDT (00:28 UTC) Moonrise 3:23AMMoonset 2:00PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 221 Pm Pdt Wed Mar 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm pdt this evening through late tonight...
Tonight..NW winds increasing to 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft dominant period 15 seconds. Chance of rain and slight chance of tstms in the evening, then slight chance of rain.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with local gusts to 30 kt. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft dominant period 13 seconds.
Thu night..Western portion...nw winds 20 to 25 kt becoming 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Eastern portion...w winds 10 to 15 kt becoming variable 10 kt or less after midnight. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 13 seconds...subsiding to 4 to 6 ft dominant period 13 seconds after midnight.
Fri..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 20 kt...becoming 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 11 seconds. Chance of showers.
Sat..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 5 ft. Chance of showers.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft.
PZZ600 221 Pm Pdt Wed Mar 22 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 20z...or 1 pm pst...a 998 mb low was 200 nm W of seattle. A 1026 mb high was located around 700 nm W of point conception. There is the slight chance of Thunderstorms today across all waters and the la county coastal waters this evening.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mission Canyon, CA
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location: 34.45, -119.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 222127
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles/oxnard ca
227 pm pdt Wed mar 22 2017

Synopsis
Possible precipitation with isolated thunderstorms will occur
into tonight. A dry and breezy northerly flow may bring a warming
trend from Thursday into Friday. But from Friday night through
Saturday precipitation is again possible with cooler temperatures.

Then early next week decreasing clouds will occur as high pressure
moves in.

Short term (tdy-sat)
the latest radar imagery showed the cold front stretched across
the southeastern portion of san luis obispo (slo) county and
across santa barbara county... Just to the east of gaviota. There
were good build ups along the front and a few behind it in slo
county with the strongest cell near buttonwillow along the front
and another east of paso robles near shandon. Rainfall rates have
been up to a tenth of an inch per hour with the frontal passage
and just a bit more with the stronger storms. There was a funnel
cloud reported with the buttonwillow storm earlier in the day near
santa maria and small hail and gusty winds are also possible.

Widespread instability continues across the region and across the
coastal waters through this evening. Lis are negative 2-3 with
cape values 300-500 j/kg in many areas... But they become negative
lis of 5-7 with CAPE values of 500-800 j/kg in the ventura county
mountains this afternoon and evening with values just a little
less favorable in the los angeles county mountains. Moisture is a
bit limited but with breaks in the clouds providing a little extra
heating there should be increased enhancement of the storms as
the front moves across through ventura and los angeles counties.

The vertical wind profile does not favor deep rotation but terrain
may provide enough curvature to the profile to have another funnel
develop.

Rainfall totals will be a tenth to a quarter inch with up to a
half inch or so near thunderstorms. As the colder airmass comes
in behind the front the higher elevations will get a dusting of
snow. The snow level will begin near 6000 feet and drop to near
5000 feet overnight with one to three inches of snow possible
above 6000 feet.

As the wind shifts to the northwest-north direction winds will
become gusty in santa barbara county in the traditional sundowner
canyons and locations. The winds will generally remain below
advisory criteria but there may be periods when they approach
those levels.

Skies will clear and temperatures will warm on Thursday and Friday
as a weak ridge of higher pressure builds into the region. Increasing
onshore flow may keep coastal areas a few degrees cooler on Friday
though the flow will boost the temperature a few degrees in the
antelope valley due to downslope flow. Thursday will likely be the
warmest day north of point conception due to the increasing clouds
ahead of the next weather system blocking the Friday afternoon sunshine.

The next chance of precipitation comes to the region by late
Friday. The models are not in sync regarding the exact timing of
the system... With a possibility of the precip coming Friday
afternoon north of point conception versus late on Friday. However
the trend is for less rainfall overall with this next system and
to bring it in earlier rather than later. So areas to the north
will have the best chance of rain by the Friday evening commute
and those to the south of point conception will have the best
chance of rain Friday night into Saturday morning.

Skies will slowly clear on Saturday and some precipitation may
linger in the los angeles county mountains.

Long term (sun-wed)
conditions will be warmer and drier on Sunday as a weak ridge
moves into the region... Which is followed by a weak trough on
Monday and a slight chance of light showers. There continue to be
significant differences in the models beyond Monday however...

with the possibility of a stronger ridge over the region or a low
pressure center that drops down to the east of the region. The
second solution provides a possibility of unsettled weather for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Have kept the forecast on the warm and dry
side but this discrepancy will bear watching.

Aviation 22/1800z
at 1745z, there was no marine inversion at klax.

Low confidence in 18z TAF package through 06z. There will be
frequent flight cat changes as both CIGS and vis vary up and down.

There is a 40 percent chc of a shower for the la county taf
sites. There is a 20 percent chc of a TSTM in the morning N of pt
conception and a 20 percent chc in the afternoon S of pt
conception.

Good confidence in tafs after 06z with the transition toVFR
conds.

Klax... Low confidence in 18z TAF package through 06z. There will
be frequent flight cat changes as both CIGS and vis vary up and
down. There is a 40 percent chc of a shower today and a 20 percent
chc of a TSTM in the afternoon. Good confidence in mid evening
vfr transition. East winds should remain below 8 kt through the
period.

Kbur... Low confidence in 18z TAF package through 06z. There will
be frequent flight cat changes as both CIGS and vis vary up and
down. There is a 40 percent chc of a shower today and a 20 percent
chc of a TSTM in the afternoon. Good confidence in mid evening
vfr transition.

Marine 22/200 pm
isolated thunderstorms are possible early today across the
northern waters initially, then across all coastal waters late
morning through the early evening hours. Any thunderstorm that
forms will be capable of producing locally gusty winds and rough
seas, dangerous lightning, heavy rainfall with reduced visibility,
and waterspouts.

Gusty NW winds will reach SCA levels tonight through Thursday.

There will be a few gale force gusts between san nicolas island
and santa rosa island during this time. The winds will weaken late
Thursday night into Friday.

Lox watches/warnings/advisories
Ca... Beach hazards statement in effect through Thursday morning
for zones 39>41-87. (see laxcfwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm this evening to 3 am
pdt Thursday for zones 645-650-670. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm this evening to 4 pm
pdt Thursday for zone 655. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm this evening to 9 pm
pdt Thursday for zones 673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (sat-wed)
high surf and strong rip currents are Saturday and Sunday.

Public... Kj
aviation... Sweet
marine... Sweet
synopsis... Stu
weather.Gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 3 mi52 min W 9.9 G 16 63°F 1014.9 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 16 mi28 min W 18 G 21 1015.6 hPa (-1.7)
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 24 mi28 min 58°F4 ft
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 44 mi38 min NW 21 G 25 57°F 58°F8 ft1016.7 hPa (-1.0)
46251 48 mi37 min 60°F5 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA7 mi35 minNW 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F46°F50%1014.5 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA23 mi33 minWNW 12 G 2010.00 miFair59°F44°F59%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9E6SE7SE5SE7SE7S5S4CalmW6W3W5CalmNE3CalmW7W10W10SW10W14
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1 day agoW5CalmW4W3NW3N4CalmE6SE4E3E7E6E7SE4E8E9E14E9SE8E9SE7SE8E7SE5
2 days agoCalmW8W5W6W3SE3SE5SE10SE7E10SE8SE7SE4CalmCalm3CalmSE6SE9S9S8S7SW55

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:18 AM PDT     2.53 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:22 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:12 AM PDT     4.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:59 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:24 PM PDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:59 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:15 PM PDT     3.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.52.62.83.23.74.14.34.23.732.21.30.60.30.30.71.32.12.83.33.53.43.12.7

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:14 AM PDT     2.75 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:21 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:10 AM PDT     4.22 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:58 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:25 PM PDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:58 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:11 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:12 PM PDT     3.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.82.833.33.74.14.24.13.732.21.40.70.30.40.71.42.22.93.43.63.53.22.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.