Sunday, October22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mission Canyon, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 6:16PM Sunday October 22, 2017 12:19 PM PDT (19:19 UTC) Moonrise 9:45AMMoonset 8:30PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 911 Am Pdt Sun Oct 22 2017
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 13 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 13 seconds.
Mon..Eastern portion, ne winds 15 to 25 kt becoming N 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Western portion, winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 12 seconds.
Mon night..Eastern portion, ne winds 10 to 15 kt becoming 20 to 30 kt after midnight. Western portion, nw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 13 seconds.
Tue..Eastern portion, ne winds 20 to 30 kt. Western portion, winds variable 10 kt or less. Combined seas 2 to 4 ft dominant period 13 seconds.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 15 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft.
PZZ600 911 Am Pdt Sun Oct 22 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 16z...or 9 am pdt...a 1029 mb high was located 550 nm W of point conception, extending inland over far northern california. A weak trough was along the sw california coast. Gusty ne winds will increase over the nearshore waters at times this morning through Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mission Canyon, CA
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location: 34.45, -119.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 221817
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
1117 am pdt Sun oct 22 2017

Synopsis
Gusty offshore winds will strengthen and become more widespread
through Tuesday as many locations have record heat on Monday and
Tuesday. Winds ease on Wednesday and temperatures begin to cool
and possibly drop to near normal by Friday.

Update
Forecast is largely on track. Current low end wind advisories look
ok as we should see the typical diurnal bump in winds across the
la vta valleys and santa monica mountains later this morning.

Despite lighter winds early this morning, areas with winds only
experienced low temperatures in the low to mid 70s last night,
several degrees higher than forecasted. As a result, low
temperatures may be bumped up the next couple of nights to follow
trends of increasing offshore flow and heating of the lower
atmosphere. High temperatures will be up everywhere today with
most areas 10 to 15 degrees warmer than yesterday, resulting in
widespread 80s and 90s to the west of the mountains.

The first order of business today will be focusing the upcoming
hot conditions by adjusting high and low temperatures as needed
and making adjustments to current heat products, mainly to add
heat advisories where justified. Will also be looking to issuing
wind advisories for typical areas near the los angeles and ventura
county including the mountains beginning late tonight and
continuing through at least Monday afternoon as winds are
expected to be 5 to 15 mph stronger than experienced so far this
morning. High winds (in excess of 58 mph) are possible across the
mountains of los angeles and ventura counties near the county
border Monday night into Tuesday and perhaps most likely across
western portions of the santa monica mountains. At this time it
does not look like a high wind watch will be needed, but will be
looking more closely at this as new information becomes available.

Short term (tdy-tue)
over the next three days an upper high will build into and
persist over the state. Hgts will start out at 591 dm and then
increase to a rather impressive 597 dm for Monday and then retreat
slightly to 594 dm Tuesday. Offshore easterly gradients will
become more and more offshore (-5 today, -6 Monday and -7.5 on
Tuesday) northerly offshore grads will peak today (-7 mb) and then
decrease slowly through Tuesday (-5 mb) clouds will be non
existent leaving only winds and temps to talk about.

Current wind advisories are limping along at the moment but will
likely rev up just after sunrise as the offshore diurnal pattern
peaks. The central coast wind advisory looks iffy even though the
nam has very robust offshore winds forecast. The NAM just seems
to have a habit of over forecasting the central coast winds. Would
not be surprised if winds came in at 15 to 25 mph. The wind
advisory for the area surrounding the la vta county line is also
not doing much right now but it will likely pick up at sunrise.

The winds will turn more easterly tomorrow and Tuesday as the
north push weakens and the east push strengthens. The typical
santa clarita to pt mugu wind axis will set up both days with
advisory level winds about 20 miles either side of the axis.

Stronger gradients and just a touch of upper support may well
bring warning level gusts to the santa clarita - pt mugu area. The
western portion of the santa monica mtns stands the best chc of
warning level gusts Tuesday morning an early afternoon.

The strong offshore flow combined with a very warm airmass will
bring record-breaking heat to much of the forecast area Mon and
tue. For downtown l.A., the record high for Mon is 98 degrees set
in 1965, and the forecast high is 101, while the record hi for
tue is 99 set in 1909 and the forecast hi is 102. There will not
be record heat today but MAX temps will be significantly above
normal for many coastal and vly areas. Overnight lows in the windy
vly and foothill areas will likely be in the 70s to near 80. Excessive
heat warnings are posted for the vtu l.A. County coast and vlys
on Sun and mon. There is also an excessive heat watch for the sba
county coast during the period.

Please see the latest non-precipitation weather message (laxnpwlox)
for the latest details on the wind advisories and excessive heat
warnings and advisories.

Long term (wed-sat)
both the ec and the GFS agree that the high pressure ridge will
slowly break down Wednesday in response to a fast moving short
wave that scoots into british columbia. There will still be
offshore flow and some easterly morning winds but both will be
much weaker than Tuesday. Temperatures will drop 3 to 6 degrees
(and more at the beaches) but will still be 12 to 18 degrees above
normal. Depending on how much overnight cooling occurs there may
still be a need for heat advisories.

The long range mdls are struggling to resolve a dynamic high
amplitude flow pattern over the CONUS thu-sat. The ec keeps the
area under a cyclonic flow pattern while the GFS builds a high
amplitude ridge over the west coast. The GFS soln is a new one and
for now prefer the more consistent solution of the ec. Will keep
the cooler forecast going with a small return of marine layer
clouds. MAX temps should be near or at normal for Fri and sat.

Aviation 22 1800z.

At 1630z, there was no marine inversion at klax.

Developing offshore flow will keep all sitesVFR through the taf
period. There will be occasional llws at most any TAF site.

Klax... High confidence in 18z taf.

Kbur... High confidence in 18z taf.

Marine 22 900 am.

Made a few changes to the marine products this morning. The
northeast winds on the central coast that had surged up to around
35 knots earlier were showing a downward trend in the last few
hours. Speeds in zone 645 have been lowered a bit, but a sca
remains in effect through late tonight. Similarly, zones 670-676
will have an SCA in effect through late tonight for gusty north
winds. Additionally, portions of 676 will also be subject to
northeast winds that will increase across the inner waters south
of point conception late tonight and Monday morning. Therefore,
the SCA across 676 will likely be extended into Monday morning.

The strongest winds for Monday and Tuesday will be found directly
below passes and canyons in the southern inner waters from
ventura to santa monica Monday and Tuesday mornings.

The eastern portion of santa catalina may also see some local
gusty winds to 25 or 30 knots along with choppy seas Tuesday
morning. This situation will be evaluated more thoroughly as we
approach the critical period.

Fire weather 22 930 am...

from today through Tuesday night, a prolonged duration of gusty santa ana
winds with hot and very dry conditions is expected. Northeast winds are
expected to gust between 30 and 45 mph across wind favored passes and canyons
of los angeles and ventura counties today. The santa ana winds are expected
to increase in areal coverage and intensity Monday into Tuesday, with peak
gusts between 45 and 60 mph on Tuesday across wind favored portions of los angeles
and ventura counties. The hottest and driest conditions are also expected on
Monday and Tuesday, when triple digit heat and humidities lowering into single
digits and lower teens will be common across coastal and valley areas. Northeast
to east winds gusting between 30 and 40 mph will also bring elevated fire
weather concerns to portions of the central coast and higher terrain in san
luis obispo county through Monday. Of particular concern will be Monday when
the gusty offshore winds combine with humidities lowering into the
teens(locally single digits) and temperatures rising to between 90 and 100
degrees along the central coast.

Very warm and dry conditions during the overnight hours in the mountains,
foothills, and wind prone areas will add to this long duration fire weather
threat. A red flag warning is in effect today through Tuesday for much of los
angeles and ventura counties, and may need to be extended into Tuesday night or
Wednesday as latest model guidance shows lingering offshore winds and low humidities
into that period. The duration, strength, and widespread nature of this
santa ana wind event combined with the extreme heat and very dry fuels will
bring the most dangerous fire weather conditions that southwest california has seen
in the past few years. If fire ignition occurs, there will be the potential for
very rapid spread of wildfire with long range spotting and extreme fire behavior
that could lead to a threat to life and property.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... High surf advisory in effect until noon pdt today for zones
34-35. (see laxcfwlox).

Wind advisory in effect until 5 am pdt Monday for zones
34-35-51. (see laxnpwlox).

Excessive heat watch in effect from Monday morning through
Tuesday evening for zone 39. (see laxnpwlox).

Beach hazards statement in effect until 5 pm pdt this
afternoon for zones 40-41. (see laxcfwlox).

Excessive heat warning in effect from 10 am Monday to 8 pm
pdt Tuesday for zones 40-41-44>46-87-88-547. (see laxnpwlox).

Wind advisory in effect until 2 pm pdt this afternoon for
zones 44-45-88-547. (see laxnpwlox).

Red flag warning in effect until 6 pm pdt Tuesday for zones
240-241-244>246-253-254-288-547-548. (see laxrfwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pdt Monday for
zones 645-670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (tue-sat)
near record high temperatures with excessive heat and critical
fire weather conditions will continue on Tuesday, especially
across valleys and coasts. Gusty northeast winds could impact
mountain areas Tuesday.

Public... Munroe rorke
aviation... Sweet
marine... Sweet
fire... Gomberg
synopsis... Kj
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 3 mi50 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 64°F 1020.5 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 16 mi40 min WSW 1.9 G 3.9 63°F 63°F1021 hPa60°F
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 24 mi50 min 64°F4 ft
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 44 mi40 min NW 7.8 G 9.7 60°F 56°F1020.3 hPa52°F
46251 48 mi59 min 68°F4 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA7 mi27 minSE 510.00 miFair72°F52°F50%1019.9 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA23 mi25 minN 010.00 miFair79°F33°F20%1021.3 hPa

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE93SE6S5SE4S4SE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S6SE5
1 day agoW15W15NW11
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NW5N12N8N8N12N8N7SE3CalmNE5CalmE5SE4S8SE5
2 days agoS6SW5SW4W15
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CalmW11W8W12
G21
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Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:04 AM PDT     3.99 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:03 AM PDT     2.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:10 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:44 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:17 AM PDT     5.28 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 06:16 PM PDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:30 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
43.83.42.82.42.22.32.83.64.34.95.35.24.63.72.61.60.80.40.511.72.53.2

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:53 AM PDT     2.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:09 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:42 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:07 AM PDT     5.55 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:05 PM PDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:14 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:30 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.23.93.32.72.22.12.32.93.74.65.35.55.44.73.72.51.40.70.40.61.222.83.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.