Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 3:39 PM   Moonset 3:17 AM

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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 830 Am Pdt Sat May 18 2024
Today - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds. Tonight - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds. Sun - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds.Sun night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 10 seconds. Mon - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 10 seconds. Mon night - W to nw winds 10 to 20 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 9 seconds.Tue - W to nw winds 5 to 10 kt in the morning, becoming 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft.Wed - W to nw winds 5 to 10 kt in the morning, becoming 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft.

PZZ600 830 Am Pdt Sat May 18 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 15z, or 8 am pdt, a 1030 mb surface high was centered 1200 nm northwest of point conception and a 1004 mb low was centered in southern nevada.

FXUS66 KLOX 181553 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 853 AM PDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
18/844 AM.

Low clouds will continue to be a staple of the forecast for coast and valleys through Monday, and struggling to clear each afternoon. Breezy onshore winds will occur across the interior valleys and adjacent foothill areas each afternoon and evening.
More sunshine with slight warming is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as onshore flow weakens. Then cooler with increasing marine layer clouds again the latter half of next week.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...18/852 AM.

***UPDATE***

Our deep marine layer pattern continues this morning with the cloud tops 4000-4500 feet. Clouds even made it all the way through the Cuyama Valley as well as Sandberg at 4500 ft near the LA/Kern County line. As mentioned yesterday, when the marine layer gets this deep we often start seeing a reverse clearing pattern and there have been hints of this the last couple days. Visible satellite imagery is also showing it this morning with significant thinning of the stratus from western Ventura County and out across the SB Channel. So there may be more sunshine in these areas than we've seen the last week or so. Still well below normal temperatures in most areas except the far interior. Little change expected Sunday.

***From Previous Discussion***

On Monday a weak low pressure system, currently centered 1000 miles west of Los Angeles, will pass through extreme southern California will drawing a deeper trough passing through the northwest states down closer to California. This will bring some noticeable changes. Temperatures will drop to below normal for the interior areas. Coastal and valleys areas will also drop a few degrees, and will likely see an even deeper marine layer and more drizzle. Low clouds could even push into some interior valleys like Cuyama and the Antelope Valley. Southern Santa Barbara County and western Ventura County would be the one exception, as increasing northwest flow will likely bring an area of low cloud clearing in the morning or early afternoon. This would locally counteract the cooling factor there, and form a coastal eddy to the east. There is chance that the marine layer grows too deep to support itself, with more clearing than we have been seeing overall by Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...18/252 AM.

As the aforementioned low pressure system moves to the east on Tuesday and Wednesday, this will weaken the onshore pressure gradients and flow (LAX-DAG predicted to go from +6 millibars Monday morning to +2 millibars on Tuesday). This should cause the marine layer to lower some and not push as far inland as it has been. The northwest flow over Santa Barbara County and the northern mountains will also continue to make low clouds over southern Santa Barbara and western Ventura Counties less favorable. As a result, Tuesday and Wednesday will likely be the warmest over coastal and valleys areas over the last week or two with coastal temperatures starting to sniff normal values. Beyond that there is a fair amount of uncertainty. Several of the ensemble members show further warming to close out the week, while a significant amount show onshore flow strengthening and the marine layer expanding once again. The most likely outcome is a return to conditions like we have been seeing by Thursday or Friday of next week, with cool and cloudy conditions on the coastal side of the mountains, with warmer than usual and breezy conditions over the interior.

AVIATION
18/1300Z.

At 12Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3500 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 4900 feet with a temperature of 18 C.

Nearly a repeat of the past few mornings. Clouds were widespread across the entire area with the exception of the Antelope Valley, most mountain locations and the far interior valleys of SLO County. Conds were mostly MVFR, except locally IFR across SLO and SBA Counties, and widespread LIFR to VLIFR in the foothills and mtn slopes. Expect slow clearing again today, with skies clearing by noon or early afternoon in the valleys, and early to mid afternoon across the coastal plain. Once again, it will likely stay cloudy at some beaches. Cigs will probably rise into the VFR category on the coastal plain this afternoon. Expect a repeat tonight, with clouds in all coasts, valley and mtn slope areas.
Conds will be mostly MVFR, except IFR n of Pt Conception, and LIFR to VLIFR in the foothills and mtns.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20-30% chance that cigs will linger all day, though they should rise into the VFR category. There is a 20% chance that if cigs do clear, they will not arrive until 06Z. No significant E wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate to high confidence in TAF. There is a 20-30% chance that cigs tonight will not arrive until as late as 09Z.

MARINE
18/832 AM.

In the Outer Waters, high confidence in the forecast. Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels thru Sun morning. There is a 30% chance of SCA level winds late Sun in the northern zone (PZZ670). SCA conds are likely there Sun night, with a 40% chance elsewhere. SCA level winds and seas are likely across the entire outer waters Mon thru Tue night, with a 40% chance Wed.

For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, moderate to high confidence in the forecast. Through Sun morning, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels. From Sun afternoon thru Wed, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds each afternoon/eve.

In the Inner Waters S of Pt. Conception, moderate to high confidence in the forecast. Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels for the majority of the area thru Wed. However, in western portions of the SBA Channel, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds during the afternoon/eve hours Mon thru Wed.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

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