Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Surf City, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 5:05PM Friday November 16, 2018 5:19 AM EST (10:19 UTC) Moonrise 1:40PMMoonset 12:02AM Illumination 59% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 308 Am Est Fri Nov 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 am est this morning...
Today..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft this afternoon.
Tonight..N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft, then 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft, then 3 ft in the afternoon.
Sat night..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft, then 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..SE winds 10 kt or less, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, then 3 ft.
AMZ200 308 Am Est Fri Nov 16 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will build over the waters through the weekend into next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Surf City, NC
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location: 34.45, -77.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 160751
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
251 am est Fri nov 16 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build into the carolinas today and Saturday
bringing clear skies and below-normal temperatures. Frost is
possible tonight for some inland areas. Another cold front will
move through the area Tuesday night, followed by high pressure
through thanksgiving day. Low pressure developing to our south
could bring rain in by Friday.

Near term through tonight
As of 300 am Friday... A west to northwest flow is now in place through
basically all layers of the troposphere. There remains some stratus
across the area this morning but this should dissipate and or mix
out during the next few hours. Certainly a colder airmass settling in
but not the coldest of the season and it is rather shallow. This
will allow temperatures to rise into the middle and upper 50s today.

As for Saturday morning guidance continues to advertise lows a few
degrees above freezing even inland. Some frost is possible however
and but probably not enough for a npw.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
As of 300 am Friday... A zonal upper level flow over the
carolinas on Saturday will continue into Sunday as a very
positively tiled and sheared upper trough dips into the mid-
atlantic states. A speed MAX in the subtropical jet will move
across the carolinas on Sunday, but with little impact on our
sensible weather. At the surface, high pressure over the mid-
atlantic states on Saturday will move off the northeast coast on
Sunday.

A very weak coastal trough will attempt to develop off the
ga sc coast Sunday as easterly fetch lengthens off the southeast
coast. A very shallow layer of moisture will begin to feed back
in from the south just beneath the subsidence inversion. While
the GFS and ECMWF actually wring out a couple hundredths of an
inch along the coast late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, it
appears the depth of moisture should be insufficient for more
than clouds, and i'll maintain a dry forecast through the
period.

Low to mid 60s for highs on Saturday should warm another degree
or two on Sunday. Lows ranging from the upper 30s inland to
lower 40s coast Saturday night should warm into the 40s to near
50 at the coast Sunday night due to clouds and modification
from onshore flow.

Long term Monday through Thursday
As of 345 pm Thursday... Longwave upper pattern continues to
display a low amplitude trough encompassing much of the u.S.

With upper ridging along the immediate west coast. Westerly flow
aloft starts out this period with dry and near normal temps
expected for Sunday. Models the past few days indicate an
impulse in the lower levels of the flow over the atlantic off
the southeast u.S. Coast. Models indicate it making it's turn to
the NW then N during Mon and to the NE by early tue, finally
pulling away from the carolina coast. Have indicated a short-
period of patchy light rain along the immediate coast Mon into
mon night. A sfc cold front is able to push across Tue into wed
with the aid of a mid-level S W trof. Not much of CAA behind it
as flow aloft drops back to zonal. By the end of this period,
models hint of a pcpn event shaping up but just too far out in
time for specifics.

Aviation 06z Friday through Tuesday
As of 06z... MVFR ceilings remain in most areas as cold air
advection stratus remains under a significant inversion around
900mb. This will gradually mix out in a few hours leavingVFR
conditions through the remainder of the period as surface high
pressure builds in.

Extended outlook...VFR.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Friday... Winds and seas scaling back this morning as
expected. 41013 is now down to eight feet seas with sustained winds
just over 20 knots. Will go ahead and extend the small craft
advisory until 12 utc for the northern waters and issue a scec
headline for the southern waters. By this evening winds will
drop to ten knots or less from the west northwest. Significant
seas will drop to 2-4 feet.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night ...

as of 300 am Friday... High pressure over the mid-atlantic will
move off the northeast coast Sunday. A very weak coastal trough
will attempt to form off the ga sc coast on Sunday, but there
shouldn't be enough support in the upper levels of the
atmosphere for anything significant to develop. Northeasterly
winds 10-15 kt Saturday morning should diminish to less than 10
kt by late afternoon, then will turn more easterly on Sunday.

Wind direction could become variable Sunday night if the weak
coastal trough to our south can lift northward.

Long term Monday through Tuesday ...

as of 345 pm Thursday... A semi-active significant seas period
as long period ese ground swell at 9+ second periods will
highlight this period. Winds this period will primarily have a
northerly trajectory but remain in the 10 to occasionally 15 kt
speeds. This could further increase slightly depending on the
movement and strength of the low level impulse moving around the
periphery of the atlantic as explained in the public discussion
for this time period. Significant seas will run in the 2 to 4
foot range, primarily coming from the 9+ second period ese
swell.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am est early this morning
for amz250-252.

Synopsis... Tra
near term... Shk
short term... Tra
long term... Dch
aviation... Shk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 22 mi32 min W 9.9 G 14 46°F 65°F1015.4 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 24 mi20 min 65°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 24 mi72 min WNW 16 G 21 47°F 66°F1013.9 hPa
WLON7 29 mi32 min 1015.4 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi72 min WNW 23 G 29 51°F 71°F1014.3 hPa
41159 34 mi50 min 75°F9 ft
41064 34 mi72 min NW 23 G 31 53°F 74°F1013.3 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 48 mi32 min WNW 9.9 G 18 46°F 61°F1014.7 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10NE11NE14NE12NE12NE11N10N11N13
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1 day agoW6W6NW8NW9N7N10N11N9N9N9NE10NE11N10NE12N9N10NE12N14
G20
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2 days agoN6E8E10E10SE10SE14
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SE15SE12SE14
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G24
SW8W13W6SW4W4W5W5W4W5W6W8

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:03 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:42 AM EST     2.68 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:21 AM EST     0.74 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:56 PM EST     2.91 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:03 PM EST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.62.72.52.21.71.30.90.80.81.21.72.32.82.92.82.521.510.70.60.71.2

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:01 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:38 AM EST     2.68 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:38 AM EST     0.74 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:52 PM EST     2.91 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:04 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:20 PM EST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.62.72.421.51.10.80.811.422.52.82.92.72.31.81.30.80.60.60.91.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.