Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Surf City, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 7:29PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 11:17 PM EDT (03:17 UTC) Moonrise 6:33AMMoonset 7:17PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 943 Pm Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Overnight..SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw. Seas 3 to 5 ft...highest outer waters off cape fear. A slight chance of showers and tstms late this evening.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft...except up to 5 ft outer waters off cape fear.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft...then 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft... Then 4 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming se 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 ft... Building to 4 to 5 ft in the afternoon. Showers and tstms likely.
Fri night..S winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft...subsiding to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. Showers and tstms.
Sat..NW winds 10 kt...becoming n. Seas 4 to 6 ft...subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day.
Sun..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 943 Pm Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front will sink southward...crossing the area waters late tonight thru early Wed. High pressure will follow and build across the area from the north Wed night thru Thu night. A more dynamic cold front will push across the area by late Fri. High pressure will follow for the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Surf City, NC
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location: 34.45, -77.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 290033
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
833 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017

Synopsis
Showers and an isolated strong thunderstorm remain possible
this afternoon ahead of a cold front which will move through
late tonight. Relatively cooler and drier high pressure will
build in from the north late Wednesday into Thursday. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected as warmer and more humid air
returns Friday ahead of a cold front which will move offshore
early Saturday. Some of the thunderstorms may be strong to
severe Friday and Friday night. The weekend should be dry as
high pressure takes hold. Then early next week, a southern
stream system will again bring the risk for showers and
thunderstorms.

Near term /through Wednesday/
As of 3 pm Tuesday... A second shortwave is crossing the carolinas
this afternoon and with the early shortwave there has been a delay
in additional convection developing. The goes-16 1-minute imagery is
showing cumulus developing west of florence to pembroke and isolated
cumulus developing to the west. The 16 utc hrrr is only showing
isolated convection through sunset. So will keep a 20 to 30% chance
of convection with the higher chances for the northern coastal
areas.

The frontal boundary will shift across the area after midnight and
sweep to the south with high pressure building in the area into
Wednesday. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the upper 50s and
highs on Wednesday to around 80 except cooler at the beaches with a
northeast flow.

Short term /Wednesday night through Thursday night/
As of 3 pm Tuesday... Mid level ridge axis over the southeast will be
deamplifying and shifting east Wed night as surface high over
southern canada builds down the east coast. Cooler air associated
with the canadian high spreads over the region Wed night with lows
dropping close to climo. Northeast winds will be in the 5 to 8 mph
range which should prevent any radiational cooling. Low will be in
the low to mid 50s across much of the area. Surface high shifts off
the coast later Thu with weak return flow developing Thu night.

Ridging aloft Wed night and Thu will keep the region dry through at
least Thu evening. Forecast soundings show impressive subsidence
from 850mb through 700mb into Thu night before approaching high
amplitude southern stream system shunts the 5h ridge axis
farther off the coast.

Developing deep southwest flow Thu night increases moisture in
the region, precipitable water values increase from around 0.80"
thu evening to 1.40" by the end of the period. Arrival of this
deeper moisture along with an increase in mid level lapse rates
should open the door for some convection late in the period. The
unfavorable timing and lack of strong low level jetting does
suggest coverage will be rather limited and do not plan on much
in the way of changes to inherited Thu night precip chances.

Temperatures Thu will be near to slightly below climo, upper 60s
to lower 70s, with temps Thu night running above to well above
climo and likely following an atypical curve with slight warming
after midnight.

Long term /Friday through Tuesday/
As of 300 am Tuesday... Next in series of potent southern stream
systems will impact the eastern carolinas Fri and Fri night with
a categorical risk for showers and thunderstorms developing.

The combination of significant upper level support and strong
and deep moisture return and lift provides at least the
opportunity for a more widespread and significant rainfall
event. There will be some risk for strong to severe
thunderstorms during this time. 0-6 km effective bulk shear
parameters are not particularly impressive. However, instability
does grow with mixed layer CAPE values on the order of 500 to
1000 j/kg as the warm front should move to our n. Mid-level
lapse rates are forecast to be rather modest. The potential is
there for an active day/night leading into the weekend, although
magnitude is certainly still a question mark.

In the wake of this system, dry weather and near to above
normal temps are expected for the weekend as mid-level ridging
builds across the area and surface high pressure builds from the
nw and n. Attention then will turn westward as next southern
stream system along the gulf coast Sun night lifts to the NE and
drags a warm front to the n. This will again bring deep
moisture into the carolinas, and with that, showers and
thunderstorms early next week. Given timing differences between
long range models and a general slower trend as compared to 24
hours ago, will cap pops in the chance category until we can
gain better resolution as to when the highest risk for showers
and thunderstorms will occur.

Aviation /00z Wednesday through Sunday/
As of 00z... Sfc convergent boundary lies along an east to west
line extending from surf city across whiteville to hartsville.

This feature is a product of storm outflows and the sfc cold
front sinking southward. Isolated low topped showers and
possibly a thunderstorm will likely continue to develop along
this boundary as it sinks southward for the next few hours. With
subsidence aloft, do not expect much vertical development. Will
only carry vcsh for the associated terminals near this boundary.

The remainder of the night will see improving ceilings and
winds that slowly veer from sw-w to nw-n overnight... And to the
ne during wed. Wind speeds mainly 5 to 10 kt early this evening,
dropping to 2 to 4 kt overnight after the cfp. None of the near
term guidance is illustrating fog development for the pre-dawn
wed hrs. May place patchy MVFR fog at press time or amend later
on this evening if 00z model guidance shows it. No ceilings or
pcpn for daylight wed. Only concern will be the slow veering
wind direction trend from nnw-nne at sunrise to ene to E at
sunset. Wind speeds thruout the day at 5 to 10 kt. The coastal
terminals may see an aftn/early evening seabreeze develop with
winds from the SE around 10 kt.

Extended outlook...VFR conditions thu. MVFR/ifr conditions
likely in showers and strong to severe thunderstorms fri/fri
night.VFR conditions Sat thru sun.

Marine
Near term /through Wednesday/...

as of 3 pm Tuesday... Sw winds around 15 knots with higher gust
are seen at coastal cman stations... Not receiving any offshore
buoy data at this minute so have lower confidence of the current
wind speeds at 10 to 20 miles off the coast. With cold front
approaching expect to see winds increase to 15 to 20 knots with
higher gust. Seas are expected to peak at 3 to 5 feet. Will
continue to see longer period swells through this evening. With
the cold frontal passage expected between 2 am and 6 am
Wednesday, seas will slowly fall to the 3 to 4 feet range by the
end of Wednesday.

Short term /Wednesday night through Thursday night/...

as of 3 pm Tuesday... Northeast flow will continue Wed night and
thu as high pressure over southern canada builds south.

Gradient becomes pinched late Wed night as cold surge moves
across the waters and northeast flow may briefly hit 20 kt.

Northeast flow remains 15 to 20 kt Thu before starting to
decrease and veer to east Thu evening and then southeast thu
night as the surface ridge axis moves offshore. Seas will range
from 3 to 5 ft through Thu night with shorter wave periods
expected given the strength of the northeast flow. Exercise
caution headlines may be needed during the period, depending on
the strength of the northeast surge late Wed night.

Long term /Friday through Sunday/...

as of 300 am Tuesday... A small craft advisory is likely for all
waters Fri and Fri night with conditions possibly lingering
into sat.

Slow moving area of low pressure will be moving across the ohio
valley fri. Its accompanying warm front will move across the
waters fri. As low pressure moves offshore of the mid-atlantic
states late Fri night and Sat morning, it will strengthen and
drag a cold front across the waters. High pressure will slowly
build across the area from the N and NW Sat night and sun.

Se winds Fri morning will become S and then SW Fri night. The
wind direction will become westerly early Sat morning and then
nw by Sat afternoon. N winds Sat night will become NE overnight
sat with NE winds persisting into Sun before veering to easterly
during the afternoon.

The strongest winds are expected Fri and Fri night, up to 20 to
25 kt. Seas late Fri and Fri night will build to 4 to 7 ft and
around 8 ft at frying pan shoals. Seas during Sat will only slowly
subside as backswell from departing storm system impacts the
waters. Seas should drop below advisory levels by late Sat and
to 2 to 4 ft on sun.

Ilm watches/warnings/advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Drh
near term... Drh
short term... Iii
long term... Rjd
aviation... Dch


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 22 mi48 min SSW 6 G 7 64°F 58°F1012.5 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 24 mi49 min 58°F4 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 24 mi70 min NNW 1.9 G 9.7 64°F 58°F1013.3 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 28 mi93 min NW 1 67°F 1012 hPa60°F
WLON7 29 mi48 min 65°F 61°F1013.3 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi70 min NNW 7.8 G 12 66°F 70°F1013.4 hPa
41159 34 mi35 min 64°F5 ft
41064 34 mi70 min W 12 G 18 66°F 1013.6 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 48 mi48 min SW 1.9 G 4.1 63°F 62°F1012 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC18 mi22 minNNW 38.00 miA Few Clouds63°F63°F100%1013.6 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4S5S5S6SW3CalmCalmSW3S4SW8SW12
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1 day agoCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW5S6S3S9S8S8
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2 days agoCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE9S13SE12S11
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Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
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Tue -- 02:04 AM EDT     -0.74 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:17 AM EDT     4.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:20 PM EDT     -0.75 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:40 PM EDT     5.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.7-0.3-0.7-0.40.41.83.24.34.84.73.92.61.1-0.1-0.7-0.60.21.42.94.35.15.24.63.4

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
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Tue -- 03:05 AM EDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:34 AM EDT     3.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:21 PM EDT     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:57 PM EDT     3.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.20.4-0.2-0.5-0.20.61.62.73.33.432.31.50.6-0.1-0.4-0.30.31.42.53.43.73.52.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.