Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 7:54 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 9:25 AM

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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 940 Pm Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Overnight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 9 seconds and se 2 ft at 6 seconds. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 10 seconds and S 1 ft at 6 seconds. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 10 seconds and S 2 ft at 5 seconds. Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 10 seconds and S 2 ft at 5 seconds. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 13 seconds. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Wed - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 12 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Thu - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Thu night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 940 Pm Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - High pressure will anchor off the southeastern us coast for the upcoming week. A decaying cold front will move through the region on Tuesday night, followed by a more pronounced cold front next weekend.

FXUS62 KILM 290201 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1001 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
Offshore high pressure leads to dry conditions through Monday.
An upper level disturbance will lead to shower and storm chances Tuesday and Wednesday, a warming trend starting early next week as the high pushes further offshore. A cold front moves through late in the week, which brings an increased chance for rain.

UPDATE
Skies have cleared out except for the thin cirrus dropping down on the lee side of the upper ridge. Some of it should track into the ILM CWA overnight into Mon, again it's non- opaque. Winds will also lower if not altogether go calm as the sea breeze dissipates leaving a rather somewhat relaxed sfc pg given the sfc ridge axis extending overhead from the highs center anchoring offshore from the U.S. SE States Coast.
Have continue the fog potential inland with patchy to areas of fog mainly inland between 4AM and 8AM EDT. Min temps tweaked lower by a few degrees mainly across the notorious southernmost ILM SC CWA

For Mon April 29th...Moderate Rip Risk has been continued for all county beaches except Brunswick. Slowly decaying but active E-ESE swell at 8 to 10 second periods continues to be the primary agitator.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Mid level ridging and surface high pressure offshore leads to basically a persistence forecast. Convective clouds will dissipate in a few more hours leading to a mostly clear overnight. Fog is possible again in the wee hours of the morning more so inland. For Monday although surface dewpoints are similar to today's soundings show drier air poised to mix down thus the cloud forecast is considerably less than todays observations. Overnight lows will reach the middle 50s with Mondays highs probably reaching around 80 most areas.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Mon night should be mostly clear with cloud cover increasing towards Tues morning ahead of a shortwave, mostly in the form of mid/high level clouds early. Offshore high pressure will shift further from the coast through the day Tues with some lower clouds associated with isolated showers later in the day.
It looks like a coastal trough forms Wed as the shortwave trough aloft deepens before nudging offshore by the end of the period.
This will lead to enhanced precip chances Wed with thunder chances in the afternoon due to some instability. Currently the area is just in general thunder with ML lapse rates and winds aloft not supporting much of a wind or hail threat. Sounding bulk shear values could suggest some storm organization but otherwise not expecting a severe threat at this time.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
The shortwave trough should be offshore Wed night with rain moving out with it, more surface high pressure approaching due to a shortwave ridge. It looks like a weak backdoor cold front may cross over the area Thurs AM but the passage will be dry, the boundary maybe even becoming diffuse before reaching us. Low precip chances will be relegated to the afternoon due to a weak pressure trough inland. Better chances for showers/storms will come towards the end of the week due to an approaching cold front and upper level trough. Highs generally in the mid to upper 80s with cooler conditions towards the end of the week with the increasing rain chances. Lows generally in the 60s, again cooler towards the weekend.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Will continue with a persistence forecast for the next 24 hrs as the center of high pressure relocates to offshore from the U.S. Southeast States Coast. Looking at primarily a VFR forecast except for a small MVFR window covered by a tempo group for reduced vsby due to fog for the inland terminals 09z-12z Mon.
Looking at additional Cu development during Mon along with thin cirrus overriding the upper ridge and dropping down from the north.

Extended Outlook...Predominately VFR expected through the work week outside of flight restrictions possible due to fog or low cigs each morning, especially inland terminals. Isolated convection possible accompanying a weak mid-level s/w trof passage Tue night thru Wed.

MARINE
Through Monday...Conditions across the coastal waters are all but in summer time mode. Winds maintain a southerly component in and around ten knots. Similar persistent story for significant seas with 2-4 feet.

Monday Night through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions. S/SW winds 10-15 kts become ENE Thur with the passage of a surface boundary, becoming southerly again Fri. Seas generally 2-3 ft.
Best chances for shower/storms over the waters is Wed with the passage of a disturbance aloft and low pressure possibly forming along the coast.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina, Tide feet

New Topsail Inlet
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Sun -- 06:11 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:27 AM EDT     2.70 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:59 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:47 PM EDT     3.32 feet High Tide
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New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

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