Saturday, September23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Surf City, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 7:05PM Saturday September 23, 2017 5:51 PM EDT (21:51 UTC) Moonrise 9:08AMMoonset 8:26PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 306 Pm Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft after midnight.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Mon night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Tue..N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 to 12 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft, subsiding to 6 to 8 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 306 Pm Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure to the north will result in northeast to east flow through tonight. Hurricane maria will move northward and pass offshore Monday through Wednesday. Hazardous winds and seas will develop this weekend and continue into next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Surf City, NC
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 34.45, -77.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus62 kilm 231913
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
313 pm edt Sat sep 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will continue the warm and dry weather through the
remainder of the weekend. Hurricane maria is expected to move
northward a couple of hundred miles east of the carolina coast
Monday through Wednesday. Hazardous boating conditions, strong
rip currents, and large surf are all expected to develop. A cold
front is expected to reach the area Friday, bringing cooler
weather for late next week.

Near term through Sunday
As of 3 pm Saturday... Surface ridge will persist from the north
tonight and Sunday as hurricane maria moves northward. At h5 an
upper low will become positioned across the northern gulf coast
as a ridge lingers across the great lakes, new england and part
of the mid-atlantic regions. Rh in the h85-h5 layer will remain
meager with uvvs lacking through Sunday thus no pops required
in the near term period. Even with northeasterly flow
temperatures will be a category or two above normal with lows
tonight and highs during Sunday. Favored a blend of met mav
numbers each period. Some fog possible again tonight, more-so
for the coastal counties and a touch farther inland where
dewpoints will be highest.

Otherwise, ocean and surf conditions will be deteriorating
through Sunday with potential for ocean over-wash, erosion, high
surf and strong rip currents. Please see the section below for
further details.

Short term Sunday night through Monday night
As of 300 pm Saturday... Mid-level high centered over pa-ny area
is expected to hook up with the atlantic ridge once the
remnants of jose dissipate by Monday morning. At the same time,
a rather weak upper level low will reside over the gulf coast
between la and fl. And finally, hurricane maria is expected to
slow down by Monday once the blocking ridging to it's north
becomes established. Flow around the upper ridging and the upper
low will have a tendency to actually pull maria slightly
westward beginning by Tuesday morning at which point it would
be at the 33 degree N latitude and 72.5 longitude. A couple of
degrees in longitude to the west at this point will be the
difference for whether hurricane watches warnings will be
raised.

As for sensible weather conditions during this period. The fa is
looking at basically mostly clear nights and mostly sunny days with
the exception for the immediate coast where partly sunny may be the
right wording due to the increase of exhaust cirrus emitted by
maria. By Tuesday morning, could even see a few showers from
maria reach the immediate coast and possibly progress inland
across the ilm nc CWA before quickly dissipating. With mid-level
dry air and subsidence, ie. Sinking air, occurring ahead of
maria will for the most part keep the ilm CWA pcpn- free.

For MAX min temps, looking at the continuation of summer like
conditions with highs each day in the 80s and lows in the 60s to
around 70. This is basically 1 to 2 categories above climo
norms.

Maria's swell will continue to increase in size Sunday into Monday
then plateau Monday night into Tuesday. As a result, surf
conditions will surpass thresholds that require a high surf
advisory. In addition, strong rip currents are expected and may
occur at any time, not just low tide, given the size of the
expected surf and all of that water that runs up onto the
beaches. In addition, minor beach erosion is possible during
this 2 day period, mainly at high tide where water may reach the
dune lines of area beaches.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
As of 300 pm Saturday... The big question will be how far
offshore will maria stay. The latest global models continue to
show the center of maria slowing down and staying just offshore
cape hatteras middle of next week. A trough of low pressure will
pick up maria and carries it out to sea by late next week.

At the surface a cold front will move into the eastern
carolinas and offshore by Friday. Cooler temperatures and drier
air will move into the region for Saturday. At this time only a
chance of showers is expected on the western fringe of maria
during mid-week. With the best chances along the coast mainly
north of little river, sc. There will be a slight chance of
precipitation late Thursday and Friday.

High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be in the
middle to upper 80s but as the front approaches maximum
temperatures fall into the lower 80s Friday and the upper 70s on
Saturday. Low temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s
to around 70 Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Lows Friday are
expected to fall into the lower to middle 60s.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
As of 18z... High confidence inVFR conditions prevailing
through the evening with the area influenced by high pressure
ridging in from the north. Some confidence with tempo MVFR
conditions developing during the early morning hours, especially
at the coastal terminals where the dewpoints will be a touch
higher.

Extended outlook... MainlyVFR conditions through the period with
the exception of possible MVFR ifr conditions due to low clouds
and fog each morning, mainly between 08z-12z.

Marine
Near term through Sunday ...

as of 3 pm Saturday... East to northeast winds expected with
high pressure ridging in from the north, and maria's circulation
far to the south-southeast. Winds around 10 knots should be the
rule through the rest of the day before increasing a notch
tonight. A stronger northeasterly fetch will become established
during wed, especially across the outer coastal waters. Higher
frequency waves will develop during Sunday and super-impose
withe impressive swell emanating toward the northwest from
maria. A small craft advisory is already in place to account for
the developing hazardous maritime conditions.

Short term Sunday through Monday night ...

as of 3 pm Saturday... SCA remains in effect for the local waters
due to increasing significant seas.

The story for this time-line will be the increasing 15+ second
period swell from maria. Significant seas will peak in the 7 to 10
foot range late Sun thru early tue. The sfc pressure gradient
will be slowly tightening as maria pushes or inches closer
during this period. This will result with increasing NE winds
sun that will back to the north, Mon thru Mon night. Wind
speeds will also be increasing with SCA threshold for windspeeds
being reached.

With the increasing swells, verbiage will be added to the mww for
hazardous navigating conditions likely across local area inlets to
and from the atlantic as well as the mouths of the lower CAPE fear
river and winyah bay.

Long term Tuesday through Wednesday ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... This portion of the forecast will be
controlled by hurricane maria as it moves northward and slows
just off hatteras. The winds are expected to be from the north
20 to 33 knots north of little river and 15 to 25 knots to the
south. Winds will shift to the northwest on Wednesday with the
same speeds. Seas are expected to range from 7 to 12 feet north
cape fear and drop down to 5 to 8 feet south of CAPE fear.

Coastal flooding high surf rip currents
As of 2 pm Saturday... Minor coastal flood thresholds may be
reached at the beaches generally north of CAPE fear during high
tide early Sunday afternoon and again early Monday afternoon. In
the least we expect ocean overwash from the wave run-up from
maria's swells, especially in those areas which have suffered
erosion from previous storms. Wave power will increase as
maria's swells build through Monday. A high surf advisory has
been issued as a result for all beaches from 10z Sun through 00z
tue as a starting point. The potential for dangerous rip
currents will continue through the weekend into next week.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... High rip current risk until 8 pm edt this evening for scz054-
056.

High surf advisory from 6 am Sunday to 8 pm edt Monday for
scz054-056.

Nc... High rip current risk until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz106-
108-110.

High surf advisory from 6 am Sunday to 8 pm edt Monday for
ncz106-108-110.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Wednesday for amz250-252-
254-256.

Near term... Srp
short term... Dch
long term... Hawkins
aviation... Srp


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 22 mi52 min E 8.9 G 11 79°F 83°F1015.2 hPa (-0.6)
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 24 mi53 min 79°F5 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 24 mi44 min E 7.8 G 12 79°F 79°F1015.8 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 28 mi67 min E 2.9 82°F 1016 hPa73°F
WLON7 29 mi52 min 83°F 80°F1015.8 hPa (-0.6)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi44 min ENE 9.7 G 14 80°F 80°F1015.9 hPa
41064 34 mi44 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 79°F 1016 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 48 mi52 min E 6 G 9.9 80°F 78°F1015.6 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
Last
24hr
SE7
S7
S6
SW3
W1
SW2
SW3
SW2
NW3
NW3
NW4
NW4
NW5
NW4
NW4
G7
NW4
NW3
G6
N4
E3
NE7
E11
E9
E8
E10
1 day
ago
SE6
NE27
G33
S7
SW8
E2
--
NW6
NW7
N5
N3
N8
N6
NW7
G10
N5
G8
NW6
NW7
N6
NE5
NE7
E5
E5
E8
SE7
SE8
2 days
ago
S13
S13
S13
SW10
SW7
SW7
SW9
SW10
SW8
SW5
W5
G8
SW5
SW4
W5
W4
G8
NW4
NW6
NW4
E5
SE4
SE6
SE7
SE8
S10

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC18 mi56 minENE 610.00 miFair84°F62°F48%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
Last 24hrS5SW3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE5N8N7N8NE8NE8N9NE6
1 day agoSW7SE6CalmCalmCalmW4CalmNE5CalmNW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3Calm333CalmNE33S6
2 days agoSW3S6S5SW4SW5W6SW5CalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmE4Calm3SE5E17
G23
SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:50 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:11 AM EDT     5.16 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:25 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:30 PM EDT     4.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.52.41.20.50.30.71.52.73.94.85.254.33.2210.50.51.123.13.94.44.4

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:51 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:28 AM EDT     3.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:26 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:47 PM EDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.82.11.40.70.30.20.51.32.23.13.63.63.22.71.91.20.60.30.40.81.62.433.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (17,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.