Tuesday, August21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Surf City, NC

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Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 7:51PM Tuesday August 21, 2018 8:15 AM EDT (12:15 UTC) Moonrise 3:46PMMoonset 1:17AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 631 Am Edt Tue Aug 21 2018
Today..SW winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late this morning and afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight. Scattered showers and tstms.
Thu..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Thu night..NE winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and tstms through the night.
Sat..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 631 Am Edt Tue Aug 21 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Southwest winds, around the western periphery of high pressure anchored well offshore of the southeast coast, will continue for another day or so. A wind shift to more of a northerly componen will occur late Wednesday into early Thursday as a cold front moves across the waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Surf City, NC
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location: 34.45, -77.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 211021
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
621 am edt Tue aug 21 2018

Synopsis
Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage today
through early Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front.

The strong august front will clear the coast before daybreak
Thursday, bringing a drying and cooling trend to the region
Thursday and Friday. Canadian high pressure extending along
the interior of the carolinas, may help bring in atlantic
moisture and light rain showers to the coast next weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 355 am Tuesday... The area remains mostly convection
challenged this morning although there was a recent burst in
bladen and robeson counties for about an hour or so. The mostly
southwest flow aloft remains in place today and through early
Wednesday but the mid level trough driving this advances to the
east somewhat which may finally change things up. Some mid level
height falls and more favorable jet dynamics seem to be the
main drivers. More than anything the nam, which has been the
better model the past couple of days is showing more activity
along the coast albeit later in the afternoon and somewhat
overnight. I have maintained all pops in decent chance range
starting moreso inland and progressing to the cast in time.

Limited severe threat and the latest outlook puts the marginal
risk area just to our north.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
As of 355 am Tuesday... 'cold frontal passage' the chief
headline this period, may bring hazards early in the period,
elevating odds of a severe TSTM wind gust, in a blustery pre-
frontal flow and steering flow. Convection may be ongoing
daybreak Wednesday as a pre-frontal trough approaches the coast.

Atmospheric wind shear may support locally damaging winds in
pockets of strong convection. Debris clouds from late Tuesday's
convection apt to play a role in the outcome of this. Drying
aloft Wednesday will begin to hamper deep convection, and
convective coverage. Upper support remains in place due to the
upstream, upper trough axis, and results in a chance of showers
up to frontal passage late Wednesday night. A period of over-
running into daybreak Thursday may bring a period of just rain
Thursday morning. Temperatures to remain summer warm ahead of
the front, but even before 12z Thursday, the post frontal N wind
will be felt.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 3 pm Monday... Mid-level pattern transitions to flattened
5h ridge for the end of the week and start of next week. Weak
coastal trough develops Fri night into Sat as the surface high
drifts off the new england coast. The trough tries to move
onshore but the combination of building mid-level ridge coupled
with consolidation of the surface high over western nc and
eastern tn keeps the trough at bay until it washes out, later in
the weekend. Remnants of the trough combined with the sea
breeze could lead to an increase in diurnal convection sat
through mon. Following the passage of the cold front
temperatures will run below climo through the weekend, rising to
around climo as the period ends.

Aviation 11z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 12z... FullVFR conditions til 19z, then scattered tstms,
some possibly strong from klbt to kilm corridor between 19z-
23z. Isolated to scattered shra tstms overnight. SW winds at
all terminal this TAF cycle, gusting up 22 kt btwn 18z-22z,
then SW 6-11 kt overnight area-wide, higher gusts coast.

Extended outlook... Tstms, possibly strong Wednesday morning.

A frontal passage is expected early Thursday with a drying
trend, andVFR conditions Thursday and Friday, with NE surface
winds. MVFR ceilings possible Saturday at coastal terminals as
atlantic moisture and -ra moves ashore.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 355 am Tuesday... Southwest winds of 10-15 knots will
continue across the waters today. As we have seen the past few
nights, the low level jetting will increase winds to 15-20
knots tonight. Significant seas will continue to hover in a
range of 2-4 feet with some five footers showing up late with
the increase in winds.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night ...

as of 355 am Tuesday... Not ideal marine conditions ahead of an
approaching cold front. Expect blustery SW winds of 15-20 kt
and even higher gusts, and yes, winds and seas will be higher in
and near tstms, so radar updates highly encouraged Wednesday.

Seas 3-5 ft running every 5-6 seconds, hence steep wave faces
not all that welcoming. An 'exercise caution' flag will be
needed for portions of this time period. Windshift, arrives
after midnight Wednesday night, and before daybreak Thursday
as the front clears the SE nc and NE sc coast by sunrise, with
increasing n-ne winds trending. Visibilities may be reduced to
less that 1 nm in tstms, or rain very early Thursday.

Long term Friday through Saturday ...

as of 3 pm Monday... Northeast flow remains on the high end of
the 10 to 15 range Fri as gradient remains pinched. Gradient
starts to relax Fri night as the center of the high shifts
northeast and flow becomes more onshore for sat. Seas 2 to 3 ft
fri before dropping closer to 2 ft late Fri night and Sat as
wind speeds decrease.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... 8
near term... Shk
short term... Mjc
long term... Iii
aviation... Mjc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 22 mi28 min SW 8.9 G 11 80°F 80°F1018 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 24 mi106 min 79°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 24 mi68 min SSW 12 G 14 79°F 80°F1015.8 hPa
WLON7 29 mi34 min 80°F 83°F1017.6 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi68 min SW 12 G 18 80°F 81°F1017.9 hPa
41159 34 mi106 min 82°F3 ft
41064 34 mi68 min SW 12 G 14 82°F 82°F1017.8 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 48 mi34 min SW 4.1 G 9.9 80°F 82°F1018.3 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC18 mi20 minS 610.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F75°F93%1017.7 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW5433SW7S11SW7S9S8S7SW4CalmCalm--SW6SW5--SW4CalmS3S4S3S6
1 day agoSW10SW9
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W7W8W9W10SW7W7S7S9SW4CalmS4SW8W3CalmSW7S5S4SW3SW4NW5CalmS3
2 days agoSW8SW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
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Tue -- 02:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:30 AM EDT     3.45 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:23 AM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:08 PM EDT     4.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:34 PM EDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.92.53.13.43.432.41.610.70.71.21.92.93.84.44.74.53.932.11.40.9

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
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Tue -- 02:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:47 AM EDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:24 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:25 PM EDT     3.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.91.422.32.42.31.91.410.60.40.50.81.52.32.93.23.22.92.41.81.30.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.