Friday, April20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Surf City, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 7:47PM Friday April 20, 2018 4:31 PM EDT (20:31 UTC) Moonrise 9:18AMMoonset 11:48PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 306 Pm Edt Fri Apr 20 2018
Tonight..E winds 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Mon..E winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Mon night..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft after midnight. Showers.
Tue..SE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft, subsiding to 6 to 9 ft. Showers likely through the day, then a chance of showers through the night.
Wed..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
AMZ200 306 Pm Edt Fri Apr 20 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Canadian high pressure will build into the eastern u.s. Through Sunday. Low pressure will move slowly across the area Monday through Wednesday next week, bringing inclement weather conditions.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Surf City, NC
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location: 34.45, -77.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 201857
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
257 pm edt Fri apr 20 2018

Synopsis
Canadian high pressure will build into the carolinas through the
weekend, bringing dry weather with chilly temperatures. Slow-
moving low pressure will cross the southeastern u.S. Monday
through Wednesday, bringing widespread rainfall with continued
below-normal temperatures. Another system may affect the
carolinas Thursday into Friday.

Near term through Saturday
As of 300 pm Friday... A 500 mb ridge over the southern plains will
move into georgia and the southern appalachians by late Saturday.

Dry northwesterly mid and upper level flow ahead of this ridge will
continue. At the surface, canadian high pressure covering most of
the great lakes region will develop a secondary center along the
virginia coast Saturday afternoon.

Light winds and clear skies tonight should promote very good
radiation cooling. My forecast lows are at the very bottom end of
guidance, ranging from the upper 30s to around 40 inland with a
sliver of mid 40s on the beaches. I've got mid 30s forecast across
the normally colder locations across SE north carolina and have
added patchy frost to the forecast here as well. Blueberry growers,
whose farms are often located on the nocturnally cold peat soils,
may have some concern tonight.

Sunny skies are expected Saturday, another weak seabreeze along the
coast should keep the beaches 5-10 degrees cooler than inland areas.

Forecast highs range from the lower 70s across the pee dee region to
the mid 60s near the coast.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night
As of 300 pm Friday... High pressure slides east of the area Saturday
night, passing by well to our north. Temperatures will be held a bit
below climatology in the NE flow with a mainly clear sky brought by
the downsloping mid level flow. Wit the high progressing further off
the midatlantic coast on Sunday the door will open up to moisture
influx. Cloud cover will increase from SW to ne. Some of the
guidance that has been suggesting that rain could start breaking out
soon thereafter has been discounted as being too fast. This will
eventually start to change heading into Sunday night as the
moistening deepens in response to approaching upper troughiness
tilting flow to the southwest. Pops will increase though rainfall
amounts expected to remain light and generally confined to sc zones
Sunday night.

Long term Monday through Friday
As of 300 pm Friday... Cutoff low will continue to move east
along the gulf coast states Mon into tues spreading clouds and
rain across the area from south to north. Increasing moist on
shore flow will push pcp water values up to near 1.5 inches late
mon into tues. The center of the low should reach the sc coast
tues night and then track up along the carolina coast lifting
off to the northeast late wed. The best moisture and lift should
come together to produce the greatest QPF Mon night through
tues with fairly widespread amounts between a half inch and an
inch with locally higher amounts.

Some dry air should wrap in with westerly flow on the back end
of the system on wed, but lingering upper level energy could
keep some lingering clouds and showers around. By thurs, another
cutoff low will track across the appalachian mtns, with
increased potential for clouds and pcp late thurs into fri.

Overall a damp week ahead with a good amount of clouds and pcp
through the week.

Temps running on the cooler side on Mon will return toward
normal tues into wed. Overall temps will remain near or just
below climo through much of the week.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
As of 18z...VFR conditions are expected through the period.

High pressure centered to our northwest will build in through this
evening. Northerly winds this afternoon. Light winds tonight with
good radiational cooling conditions. Saturday, light mainly easterly
flow and continued dry with good subsidence.

Extended outlook...VFR. Periods of MVFR ra Monday Tuesday.

Marine
Near term through Saturday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... Sprawling canadian high pressure over the
great lakes will develop a secondary center along the virginia
coast Saturday afternoon. This should maintain northeasterly
winds along our portion of the carolina coast, with a weak
seabreeze expected to turn nearshore wind directions more
directly onshore Saturday afternoon. All models are in excellent
agreement and there is high confidence in this scenario.

Residual strong northeasterly winds most of this morning maintained
a hybrid 6-7 second northeasterly swell. Now that this wind is
diminishing, look for waves to quickly subside this evening. By 8 or
9 pm seas within 20 miles of shore should be only 1-2 feet! The
'exercise caution' headline will be allowed to expire at 3 pm, and
no advisories are needed for the next 24 hours.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night ...

as of 300 pm Friday... High pressure progressing eastward and
staying well north of the area all period. This will turn flow
onshore Saturday night with wind and seas remaining quite
light small. This will hold true most of Sunday as well save for
a gradual increase in wind speed. Things then ramp up with the
approach of low pressure from the west Sunday night. Expect
conditions to deteriorate to near advisory levels, though the
flags will likely go up this period to incorporate further
deterioration later on early in the long term.

Long term Monday through Wednesday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... Low pressure system will move east across
the gulf coast states to the coast of sc by tues night and then
will track NE parallel to the carolina coast. A strong on shore
flow will persist Mon into tues in a tightened gradient flow
between this low pressure system and high pressure moving slowly
off the northeast coast. Winds will diminish as they back from
e-se to n-ne tues night as the center of the low tracks
northeast becoming elongated just off the carolina coast.

Eventually an off shore w-sw flow will develop late Wed as the
low exits off to the northeast.

Overall, expect this onshore push of easterly winds up to 25 to
30 kts to push seas up through Mon into tues, from near 6 ft mon
morning up to possibly 10 to 12 ft by tues morning and then
subsiding slowly as winds back around further becoming off shore
wed. Expect SCA conditions through much of the period.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Tra
short term... mbb
long term... Rgz
aviation... Dl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 22 mi44 min ESE 8.9 G 11 57°F 63°F1025.5 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 24 mi32 min 61°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 24 mi84 min ESE 7.8 G 12 56°F 61°F1025.9 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 28 mi167 min E 2.9 64°F 1027 hPa38°F
WLON7 29 mi44 min 68°F 65°F1024.7 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi84 min E 7.8 G 12 56°F 66°F1026.2 hPa
41159 34 mi32 min 66°F3 ft
41064 34 mi84 min E 5.8 G 7.8 55°F 66°F1026.3 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 48 mi44 min S 9.9 G 11 58°F 62°F1025.1 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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G25
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W11
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC18 mi36 minWNW 11 G 1410.00 miFair64°F30°F28%1025.1 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW18
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N20
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N10N7N13N14N8N5N5N4N6N12
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1 day agoS9S13
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S8S8S6S5SW7SW9SW11SW14
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2 days agoW12
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SW6SW5S6S5S5SW4SW7SW8SW6SW6SW6SW6SW6SW8SW10
G18
W9W8S7SW9SW7
G15
S12S12

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
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Fri -- 05:29 AM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:26 AM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:18 PM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:56 PM EDT     5.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.14.331.60.5-0.1-0.10.41.32.43.33.83.83.22.31.20.3-0.2-0.10.61.62.94.15

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:30 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:43 AM EDT     2.70 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:19 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.73.32.61.80.90.3-0.1-0.10.41.222.62.72.521.40.70.2-0.1-00.51.42.43.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.