Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 1:29 AM   Moonset 11:42 AM

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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1011 Pm Edt Wed May 1 2024
Overnight - SW winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. NEar the coast, patchy fog late with vsby 1 nm or less.Thu - N winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. NEar the coast, patchy fog early with vsby 1 nm or less.Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds.Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Sat night - SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Sun - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Sun night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

AMZ200 1011 Pm Edt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - High pressure will build in from the west, move overhead on Thursday and offshore on Friday. A series of weak fronts will approach from the west and stall inland from the coast during the weekend.

FXUS62 KILM 020229 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1029 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
Forecast dries out and temperatures warm slightly Thursday and Friday. A frontal boundary and disturbance aloft will bring scattered showers and storms to the area throughout the weekend, with some drying to follow late Sunday into Monday, but another upper disturbance should increase shower activity again late Monday into Tuesday before hot and dry weather arrives for midweek.

UPDATE
Last of the POPs have been removed for the remainder of this evening. Main problem for the overnight, after midnight thru 1 to 2 hrs after daybreak, will be the fog and just how dense and widespread it becomes. At this point, have definitely continued with the previous thinking with patchy/areas of fog developing after 1 am, followed by continued worsening conditions with some locales likely observing dense, especially locations that received rainfall this aftn and early evening. Would not be surprised to see an SPS for patchy dense or NPW for a dense fog adv to eventually be issued. Plenty of low level moisture with sfc dewpoints in the 60s, winds will go calm given lack of a sfc pg and a sfc based inversion likely to develop as the last of the convective debris clouds dissipates or moves off the mainland to over the Atl. Some tweaking to the hrly elements (T, Td, wind) based on latest trends but min temps themselves, very minor tweaks applied.

Marine, Given the relaxed sfc pg, a S to SW wind around 5 kt to dominate once the sea breeze dissipates. Seas generally around 2 ft, and will be governed by a 10+ second period, 1 to 2 ft E-ESE swell . With a 4 sec or less period wind wave on top.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Sea breeze convection was ongoing as of this writing, driven by a relatively moist, unstable, and uncapped environment with 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE analyzed as of 18Z, highest in the Cape Fear region. Outflow from these showers and isolated storms will act to stabilize the nearshore environment and help push the sea breeze further inland, bringing the shower and storm risk gradually away from the coast through the remainder of this afternoon. Near I-95, a surface trough pushing southeastward has provided enough convergence to yield spotty showers along it, although these have remained shallow and relatively short- lived as they drift southeastward.

This evening and tonight, nocturnal cooling will stabilize the remainder of the area not affected by convection. With virtually no cool/dry advection, along with weak or calm winds and mainly clear skies, signals are pointing towards widespread fog development, particularly with the extra soil moisture provided by pop-up convection this afternoon nearer to the coast. Further inland, fog/mist remains likely, but how dense it can become is more uncertain as somewhat drier air will be nearby, especially near/west of I-95. Morning lows on Thursday will be limited by dewpoints and subsequent fog and/or low cloud development, with low 60s expected.

On Thursday, after morning fog/mist/low clouds burn off by mid- morning, mid-level ridging will support a very warm day with highs reaching the mid-upper 80s inland and upper 70s to low 80s near the coast. Scattered fair-weather cumulus are expected to develop as well, making for a summerlike day.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Mid to upper ridge running up the Southeast coast will shift slowly eastward through Fri night maintaining an unseasonably warm and dry forecast with plenty of subsidence through most of this period. Highs each day in the mid 80s inland, but closer to 80 right near the coast with plenty of sunshine.
Overnight lows will be in the 60s.

Ridge moves far enough east with a shortwave and front approaching Fri night. Any pcp should hold out until after daybreak on Sat, but model soundings do show mid to high clouds increasing through Fri night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Moisture will increase through the atmosphere ahead of a shortwave and front into Saturday. Soundings show mid to upper level moisture working its way down through the column into Sat aftn as instability increases with enhanced lift due to shortwave riding through. With a southerly flow backing to the southeast with sea breeze Sat aftn, should see a good push inland and expect increased convergence inland closer to the front and as sea breeze pushes inland with best chc of pcp in the I-95 corridor Sat aftn. Coast may remain fairly dry Sat with some mid to high clouds or cu present and increase in pcp chances by Sun morning before shortwave reaches off the coast and weak ridging builds in. The actual front gets muddled but chc of shwrs/thunderstorms increases again late Mon into Tues as another shortwave moves through. The coast may see there best shot of rain at this time. A deeper westerly downslope flow develops for Wed with a hot day on tap as ridge builds up the Southeast coast and H5 heights increase up to 583 dm. Should see 80s through much of the extended period tampered by clouds and shwrs but by Wed, expect some 90s if timing holds that far out in time.

AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR conditions are expected to prevail early this evening. Some convective debris mid and high level clouds should dissipate this evening. Otherwise, previous fcst emphasizing the threat for MVFR/IFR/LIFR from fog and VVs will continue to be advertised, mainly in the time frame between 05Z and 13Z. The sfc pg will remain relaxed and once the sea breeze dissipates, calm winds will become the mainstay across most if not all terminals. No appreciable advection of any sorts along with plenty of low level moisture and calm winds, all able to fuel the areas to widespread fog development. Days heating and weak winds kicking up should scour out the fog between 13Z and 14z.
Otherwise, looking at VFR for the remaining of the TAF Issuance period with a sct/bkn Cu field by midday thru the aftn. Onshore flow and sea breeze should push the cu field away from the coastal terminals.

Extended Outlook...Generally VFR through the period outside of early morning mist/low cigs from Friday through Sunday. Threat for flight restrictions from convection late Sat thru Mon due to a stalled front across the central Carolinas.

MARINE
Through Thursday... An increasingly ill-defined pressure pattern will keep winds at or below 10 kts through the period while the direction swings from southerly this evening to light and variable tonight, then light easterly tomorrow morning and settling on southeasterly during Thursday afternoon. South to southeast wind waves in the 1-2 ft range will dominate the wave spectrum with a weak easterly swell of around 1 ft at 10 seconds still holding on.

Thursday night through Monday...A southerly return flow around 5 to 10 kts basically holds into early next week, backing to a more SE direction in the aftn sea breeze each day. A longer period easterly swell will mix in.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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