Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Homeland Park, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 7:51PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 1:18 AM EDT (05:18 UTC) Moonrise 7:35AMMoonset 8:47PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homeland Park, SC
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location: 34.46, -82.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 290240
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
1040 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will push through this evening and settle southeast of
the area for Wednesday. Drier weather will develop as high pressure
builds southward from eastern canada along the east coast in the
wake of the front. Moisture will gradually return on Thursday,
with abundant moisture in place by Friday as a strong low pressure
system moves east from the mississippi river valley. Drier weather
will return for the weekend, but unsettled weather could return
early next week.

Near term /through Wednesday/
As of 1035 pm, drier air continues to slowly ooze into the forecast
area late this evening. Some stratocu lingers near the tn border
within a moist NW upslope flow regime, while some patchy stratocu
can also be seen across the piedmont. These clouds should erode
within the next few hours. Despite the drying, improving
radiational cooling conditions are expected to result in development
of at least patchy fog and low stratus within the mtn valleys,
especially across southwest nc. Lows will be around 10 degrees above
normal.

Low level moisture begins to move back into the area in the
Wednesday in the northeasterly flow. There may be an increase in
cloudiness, especially over the nc blue ridge and foothills. The air
mass is only slightly cooler, so expect highs to be around 10
degrees above normal.

Short term /Wednesday night through Friday/
As of 230 pm edt Tuesday: a progressive long wave trough will cross
the mid and lower ms valley, while a downstream ridge slides off the
east coast thru the short term. As the upper trough approaches the
forecast area, southerly upglide flow will increase atop a wedge
that will set up east of the mountains by early Thursday. It still
looks like the models may be overdone on pops and qpf, as forecast
soundings show fairly shallow rh and low-level lift (while
persistent) is not supported much by mid or upper forcing thru at
least 00z Friday. In the very least, spotty showers and persistent
low clouds should keep temps down in the 50s to mid 60s across most
of the usual cad areas, with upper 60s to mid 70s around the edges
in the southwest nc mountains and upper savannah valley.

Thursday night thru Friday, a surface low will track from ozark
plateau to the southern great lakes. Increasing moisture and
deep-layer forcing should spread better shower coverage overnight,
especially along the south-facing slopes of the blue ridge
escarpment. Some areas may receive 1-2" of qpf, as mid-level flow
remains parallel to the mountains, helping train convection. Lows
will be well above normal. During the day on Friday, the wedge front
should begin to lift north and uncover a fairly unstable warm sector
across at least the i-85 corridor, if not further north. Models are
in good agreement on a slug of very strong deep-layer q-vector
convergence around 18z Friday, in line with timing of a cold front.

Shear and helicity looks to support supercell or otherwise organized
convection within the warm sector, and confidence is increasing in a
severe weather threat. The SPC day 4 convective outlook does have a
slight risk for the much of the carolinas and ga. So I plan to add a
mention of severe tstms to the hwo. Temps should be able to get into
the upper 60s to mid 70s where the wedge erodes.

Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/
As of 200 pm edt Tuesday: the medium range fcst period kicks off
on Friday evening amidst passage of an upper shortwave, while an
upper ridge axis amplifies across the plains. At the surface,
a cold front will be approaching the region from the northwest
as broad high pressure digs out of the upper midwest into the
ohio valley. Weak upper support associated with the passing
h5 wave will warrant at least mid chance pops initially, before
pops begin to taper from the west into Saturday morning, however
holding a bit longer along the tn line where weak NW upsloping is
possible. By mid morning Saturday guidance favors rising heights
aloft as the surface ridge intrudes from the north with the cold
front clearing the i20 corridor, all leading to a drier fcst into
Saturday evening/night. The surface anticyclone will shift sharply
to the southeast into/through Sunday while llv flow becomes more
veered, thus moist upglide atop the periphery of the wedge-like
pattern as well as weak upsloping potential will warrant low end
pops across the escarpment regions. Meanwhile to the west, another
possibly closed h5 cyclone will be marching through the southern
plains into the midsouth region. Pattern evolution from this
point forward is a bit unclear as operational guidance displays
some discontinuities regarding timing/placement of the midsouth
cyclone, as well as the demise of the surface wedge pattern.

Given a more southern track of this system as displayed via the
ecmwf, the potential for strong/severe convection and heavy rainfall
is present via hslc fields as well as abundant upslope potential
along the blue ridge. However at this point it is way to early
to lock in on such details, therefore for now the fcst will just
reflect increasing pops Monday night, holding at widespread chances
into/through Tuesday. Temperatures through the medium range will
remain above normal levels.

Aviation /03z Wednesday through Sunday/
At kclt and elsewhere (except kavl/mtn valley): weakening w/nw winds
will continue to bring gradual drying to the area tonight, andVFR
conditions are expected through the period. Wind are expected to
become NE at most terminals by late morning. However, developing lee
trough may play havoc with the directions a bit at the upstate sc
terminals, where light south winds could become established during
the afternoon.

Elsewhere: although drier air is slowly filtering into the area this
evening, moisture levels should remain sufficient to pose a threat
for valley fog and/or low stratus toward daybreak, especially if
winds become calm. While this is expected to be the case for the
terminals west of kavl, it's not clear that kavl will completely
lose their up-valley flow before sunrise. We are advertising
categorical 5sm beginning at 09z, and also included a tempo for
3sm/few003 to hint at the potential for something more dire.

Outlook: moisture returning above a developing cool surface wedge
could result in low clouds and light rain across the area on
Thursday. The approach of a strong storm system will bring continued
chances of restrictions as well as a potential for heavy rain
showers and thunderstorms Thu night and Friday. Drier conditions
will return again for the weekend.

Confidence table...

02-08z 08-14z 14-20z 20-00z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kavl med 72% high 91% high 100% high 100%
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHDS1 - Strom Thurmond Dam, SC 62 mi38 min S 2.9 G 4.1 61°F 1017.6 hPa
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 82 mi58 min Calm G 1.9 66°F 1014.6 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anderson, Anderson County Airport, SC3 mi82 minN 010.00 miFair60°F51°F72%1015.1 hPa
Clemson, Clemson-Oconee County Airport, SC17 mi24 minNNE 310.00 miFair65°F50°F59%1015.6 hPa
Pickens County Airport, SC24 mi23 minN 010.00 miFair57°F50°F78%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from AND (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW10
G18
CalmW5S5S7SW5W3W7SW10W11
G18
W10W7S8W12W7W13W8W9NW7W4W4SW3CalmN3
1 day agoSE4SE5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6SW6SW6SW9SW10
G15
W11SW12
G19
--W7SW5SW6S7CalmCalmS3S6
2 days agoS6SE5SE5SE5SE5S5SE4S5S3S6S9S7S5E3NE3S9SE9SE6SE6SE5SE7S10S11S9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.