Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Homeland Park, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 5:27PM Thursday November 15, 2018 2:57 AM EST (07:57 UTC) Moonrise 1:28PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homeland Park, SC
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location: 34.46, -82.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 150612
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
112 am est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
Cool high pressure crossing new england early this morning will
maintain a cool wedge of air into the carolinas as low pressure
approaches from the south with widespread rain. Freezing rain and
sleet also will develop where temperatures fall to near or below
freezing. Cool and dry high pressure moves over our region for the
weekend.

Near term through today
As of 100 am: an upper low is seen on water vapor imagery drifting
across the mid-mississippi valley attm. A plume of moisture is
spreading in across the southeast, and a warm conveyor belt of
clouds precip is present over ga. This belt will cross the forecast
area overnight, being forced by very strong, deep isentropic lift
and upper level divergence. Light to moderate precip continues
across the area as a result of warm upglide over cad wedge. Heavier
bands are seen on radar over eastern ga that are translating north
into the cwfa. Frontogenesis is progged to increase toward dawn
so this movement should continue and new bands may set up. QPF is
still fcst to be a solid 2 to 3" across most of the upstate, NE ga,
and the southern nc mountains. Precip amounts are a little lower to
the east, but still 1.5 to 2". These amounts are still expected to
cause flooding concerns, given the saturated soils from Monday's
rain. The flood watch is still in effect for everyone except the
smokies to madison county.

The other big concern is still freezing rain and sleet, where
cold air damming will be strongest deepest. The latest guidance is
reasonably close to previous runs with respect to the depiction of
the cold air and sfc temps. If anything, we trended a little lower
on sleet and higher on ice accums, but the amounts are at or above
the warning criteria of 0.5" of sleet and 0.25" of ice. The strong
barrier jet and upslope easterly flow will lock in temps around
28-32 along the eastern escarpment from extreme northern greenville
county to avery caldwell. Cold air will likely filter into eastern
buncombe henderson and into transylvania. The biggest impacts are
expected to be trees and limbs falling on roads and power lines.

Roads may become hazardous, especially in the northern mountains and
foothills where sleet accums. Light ice and sleet may be possible
out across greater caldwell and alexander, and burke and mcdowell
may see some higher accums in the south mountains. Elsewhere, it
should be a cold rain with raw NE wind. Lows in the upper 20s to
mid 30s in the mountains and eastern escarpment, and mid to upper
30s elsewhere.

Thursday, the upper low and associated warm conveyor belt will
pivot northeast, along pops to taper off from SW to NE across the
area during the morning hours. Some light precip will linger in the
mountains, which will be under the upper low, while some patchy
sprinkles and drizzle may continue in the piedmont. Temps should
warm into the upper 30s to mid 40s, as cold air damming weakens. A
coastal low is expected to intensify over the eastern carolinas, and
the parent high shift east of new england. Forecast soundings show
a transition from a strong inversion warm nose in the mountains,
to steepening lapse rates and snow profiles by 00z Friday. So
additional ice accums should be light by midday Thursday, with
rain freezing rain starting to change over to snow around sunset.

Short term tonight through Saturday
As of 230 pm est Wednesday: the mid level low will pass north of the
area Thursday night but models do indicate some measurable
precipation in the higher elevations due to lift from the low and
upslope flow along the nc-tn border. Cold air will surge into the
mountains causing snow levels to fall rapidly Thursday evening. Snow
acculations of 0.5 to 1.5 inches look reasonable in the higher
elevations. Otherwise, skies will clear across the piedmont with
colder temperatures pushing into the area.

High pressure will develop across the region for Friday through
Saturday. Finally some sunshine is expected both days with
temperatures climbing back into the 40s in the higher elevations and
the 50s in the piedmont and mountain valleys on Friday. The warmup
will continue with some lower 60s expected in the piedmont on
Saturday.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 230 pm est Wednesday: the area will remain under the influence
of surface high pressure for Sunday with temperatures just slightly
below normal. A weak cold front will passs through the area on
Monday bringing a few light showers to the mountains near the tn
border. Seasonably cool high pressure will build back into the
region for the middle of next week.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
At kclt and elsewhere: light to moderate rain will continue until
after daybreak at all terminals. Bands of heavy rain will move
through prior to that time, possibly introducing ifr vsby and
cig where not present already. There is still the potential for
wintry precip at kavl though with confidence higher that temps
will remain above freezing, fzra has been removed from the TAF in
favor of pl. Upper low will track NW of the region late morning
thru afternoon and this will gradually turn winds downsloping,
eroding the cad and eventually bringing backVFR. However, have
been pessimistic as usual given the pattern, andVFR may not reach
the piedmont (and kclt) until late evening. Winds will occasionally
gust above 20 kt early this morning as low-level jet passes, and
a few llws reports are likely. With upslope flow developing along
the appalachians tonight, a stray snow shower at kavl is possible,
mentioned as vcsh.

Outlook: some light snow showers are possible along the tennessee
border early Friday, and there is a small chance they will affect
kavl. Otherwise,VFR conditions are expected to return and last
into the weekend.

Confidence table...

06-12z 12-18z 18-24z 00-06z
kclt high 84% high 92% med 66% med 72%
kgsp high 94% high 94% high 96% high 94%
kavl high 85% high 93% high 85% high 93%
khky high 91% high 94% high 94% med 79%
kgmu high 91% high 94% high 95% high 93%
kand high 89% high 83% high 97% high 99%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHDS1 - Strom Thurmond Dam, SC 62 mi77 min N 12 G 16 42°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 82 mi37 min NE 6 G 11 41°F 1020.3 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anderson, Anderson County Airport, SC3 mi61 minENE 125.00 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist40°F37°F89%1023.2 hPa
Clemson, Clemson-Oconee County Airport, SC17 mi63 minENE 134.00 miRain Fog/Mist39°F37°F96%1023.6 hPa
Pickens County Airport, SC24 mi62 minENE 12 G 203.00 miRain39°F38°F100%1023.4 hPa

Wind History from AND (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7E5E9E6NE10E9NE8E13NE12NE10NE9NE9
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1 day agoCalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3W5W3CalmW3SW3CalmS4SE3NE4NE4E4NE4NW4NE7NE9E11
2 days agoCalmNE3NE7N4NE5E9NE9NE6NE9NE9NE7NE15
G20
3NE10N7NE12E11E10NE6NE7E6NE6N4N4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.