Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 6:48 AM   Moonset 10:17 PM

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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 949 Am Pdt Fri May 10 2024
Rest of today - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds. Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds. Sat - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming S 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds. Sun - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds. Sun night - W winds 15 to 20 kt in the evening, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 6 seconds. Mon - W winds 15 to 20 kt. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft. Tue - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog.

PZZ600 949 Am Pdt Fri May 10 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 16z, or 9 am pdt, a 1029 mb high was centered 2500 nm northwest of point conception, and a 1005 mb low was in southeast arizona.

FXUS66 KLOX 101652 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 952 AM PDT Fri May 10 2024

SYNOPSIS
10/943 AM.

A quiet weather pattern is expected through early next week with near normal temperatures and no rain except possibly some light showers over the mountains this afternoon. Increasing night and morning low clouds are expected across coast and valleys as onshore flow increases. Mostly minor day to day changes in temperatures are expected through Sunday, then cooling possible Monday and Tuesday.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...10/951 AM.

***UPDATE***

No significant changes this morning. Stratus continues to fill into more areas but still is struggling north of Pt Conception.
Clouds are solid about 15 miles west of the coastline but patchier closer to the coast. Hi Res models continue to indicate high chances for cloud coverage expanding there tonight through the weekend.

Will keep an eye on possible cumulus development over the mountains this afternoon as an upper low is sneaking into eastern California near Death Valley. Instability is decent but it's sorely lacking moisture. Like the idea of adding a small chance of light showers over the eastern San Gabriels and smaller chances to the mountains to the west. Possibly a similar scenario Saturday.

***From Previous Discussion***

The cyclonic flow from the low will combine good differential heating to the mtns and will destabilize the atmosphere over the mtns. The flow into the mtns, however, will be from the NE and will be very dry (PWATs ~.2") and this will greatly limit the convective threat. Still a non zero but less than 10 percent chc of convection tomorrow but see the far more likely scenario being some afternoon CU development.

The low clouds will make it to the Central Coast tonight as well as the rest of the csts/vlys south of Pt Conception. Saturday will be similar today with similar clearing times and temperatures.

A little ridge slides into the area on Sunday. The ensembles show that this will reduce the low cloud coverage in the morning but with the onshore flow still increasing this forecast may turn out to be a little optimistic. Rising hgts will lead to rising temps and most areas will end up 1 to 3 degrees warmer compared to Saturday. While the coasts and vlys will have near normal temps the mtns and the interior will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...10/1234 AM.

A weak upper low will move over the area from the west during the xtnd period. It will usher in a prolonged period of May Grey. At the sfc there will be strong (7-9 mb) onshore flow to the east and moderate onshore flow (5-6 mb) to the north. The lowering hgts and cyclonic turning will combine with onshore flow to bring extensive night through morning low clouds and fog to the csts and most of the vlys. The strong onshore flow will result in slower clearing and may bring no clearing to a few beaches. The cyclonic turning aloft may also provide just enough lift to create some morning drizzle esp along the foothills.

The strong onshore push to the east will result in breezy conditionsacross the mtns and interior with low end advisory level gusts possible in the afternoon.

Max temps will cool both Mon and Tue and then change little on Wed and Thu. Max temps will be 2 to 4 degrees blo normal across the csts/vlys but will be 3 to 6 degrees above normal across the mtns and the interior.

AVIATION
10/1004Z.

At 0800Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2100 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 3200 feet with a max temperature of 19 C.

Overall, moderate to high confidence in 12Z TAF package. Timing of dissipation of CIGs this morning for coastal/valley sites could be +/- 2 hours of current forecast. For tonight, high confidence in return of CIG/VSBY restrictions for sites south of Point Conception and moderate confidence for KSMX. However, only moderate confidence in timing of return.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of dissipation of MVFR CIGs could be +/- 2 hours of current 20Z forecast. For tonight, high confidence in return of MVFR CIGS, but only moderate confidence in timing (could be +/- 2 hours of current 02Z forecast). No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of dissipation of MVFR CIGs could be +/- 2 hours of current 17Z forecast. For tonight, high confidence in return of MVFR CIGS, but only moderate confidence in timing (could be +/- 2 hours of current 06Z forecast).

MARINE
10/304 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Saturday night, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Sunday through Tuesday, there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast as winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Tuesday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels for most areas. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds Sunday night and Monday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

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Gaviota
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Fri -- 06:01 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:34 AM PDT     -1.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:48 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:21 PM PDT     3.28 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:26 PM PDT     2.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:53 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:17 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:50 PM PDT     5.68 feet High Tide
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Santa Barbara
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Fri -- 05:59 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:27 AM PDT     -1.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:46 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:21 PM PDT     3.32 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:13 PM PDT     2.48 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:50 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:14 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:35 PM PDT     5.82 feet High Tide
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Santa Barbara, California, Tide feet

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