Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 7:43 PM Moonrise 11:51 PM   Moonset 8:19 AM

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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 742 Pm Pdt Sun Apr 28 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through late Monday night - .
Tonight - Western portion, nw winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt becoming 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, W winds 5 to 10 kt becoming variable 10 kt or less after midnight. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 9 seconds.Mon - Western portion, nw winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternon. Elsewhere winds variable 10 kt or less becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 10 seconds.Mon night - Western portion, nw winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt becoming 15 to 20 kt late. Eastern portion, N to ne winds 5 to 10 kt. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft dominant period 10 seconds. Tue - N winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 10 seconds. Tue night - Western portion, nw winds 10 to 20 kt. Eastern portion, W winds 10 to 15 kt becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 10 seconds. Wed - NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft. Thu - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft.

PZZ600 742 Pm Pdt Sun Apr 28 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 03z, or 8 pm pdt, a 1030 mb high was centered 800 nm west of point conception. A 1008 mb thermal low was located in western arizona. Strong to gale force nw winds and dangerous choppy seas will affect the outer waters for much of the time into the middle of the week, frequently spreading into the northern inner waters and the western portion of the santa barbara channel.

FXUS66 KLOX 290238 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 738 PM PDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
28/737 PM.

Mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures will prevail across the region through this week, with just some coastal low clouds and fog possible at times night and morning hours early in the week and again late in the week. Gusty west to north winds will prevail over the mountains and deserts at least through Tuesday.

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...28/735 PM.

Satellite imagery showing mostly clear skies across the forecast area this evening, except patches of low clouds forming across the Central Coast. At upper levels, a northwest flow pattern will persist through Tuesday. This in combination with northerly offshore pressure gradients near the surface will continue to bring gusty northwest to north winds across portions of the forecast area through at least Tuesday. The wind advisory was extended until 3 pm Tuesday for the mountains, Antelope Valley and adjacent foothills. For southwest Santa Barbara county, the wind advisory remains in effect through 3 pm Monday, but could be extended. These areas should generally see wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph, except locally up to 55 mph across the I-5 corridor and western Antelope Valley foothills. As of 7 pm, already seeing some wind gusts of 48 mph at Gaviota and 46 mph at Refugio.

The persistent strong northwest flow pattern across the outer coastal waters will continue to generate a weak eddy circulation the next few nights. As a result, there is increasing potential (60-70% chance) for low clouds to develop during the late night and morning hours across the LA county coast, with a small chance (20-30%) of reaching the Ventura county coast. Latest ACARS data still showing a weak inversion developing across the LA Basin, so may be difficult for a solid stratus field to develop overnight.
Latest HRRR probabilistic guidance also trending towards low clouds returning to coastal LA county overnight and again Monday night.

Weak upper level ridging moved over Southern California today, bringing a warming and drying trend away from the coast. Little change in heights is expected Monday into Tuesday, but boundary layer temperatures continue to edge upward. As a result, could see a few more degrees of warming across interior next couple of days, with warmest valley and desert areas expected to climb into the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...28/157 PM.

The EC and GFS mean ensembles and deterministic are in generally good agreement Thu thru Sat with broad but generally weak upper level troffiness over the forecast area. By Sun, the deterministic models diverge quite a bit with the GFS forecasting a significant for early May storm system affecting the region with rain and high elevation mtn snow, while the EC has dry weather with rising H5 heights over the region. The GFS mean ensembles bring a 10%-20% chance of measurable rain to the area Sun, as only 4 out of 30 ensemble members show rain moving into the area at that time. For now we will go with a dry forecast for day 7.

High pressure is fcst to move into NV on Thu morning and will set up offshore flow from both the N and E. A low end Santa Ana wind event will develop and keep any low clouds well offshore. Mostly clear skies are then expected to continue across the forecast area Thu night thru Sat, except for some night and morning low clouds and fog along the Central Coast Fri night into Sat morning.
Increasing clouds are possible by Sun, and there may be some low clouds and fog along the coast into the adjacent vlys Sat night into Sun morning.

With the offshore flow Thu and even some into Fri, temps are expected to be warmest for the week, with inland coast, vlys and lower mtns expected to top out in the mid 70s to mid 80s. A smattering of upper 80s is possible on Thu for the warmest vlys.
It will turn cooler next weekend, with highs 2-6 deg below normal for many areas by Sun.

AVIATION
28/2321Z.

At 2215Z, the marine inversion at KLAX was based at 900 feet.
The top of the inversion was 2300 feet with a temperature of 15 degrees Celsius.

Overall, moderate to high confidence in 00Z TAF package. For KLAX and KLGB, only moderate confidence as there is a 50% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop overnight. For KSMX, there is a 30% chance of IFR/LIFR conditions 09Z-17z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. There is a 50% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop overnight. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 00Z TAF.

MARINE
28/725 PM.

A very long period of gale force winds is expected to continue thru at least Tue night for the outer waters. SCA conds are expected Wed thru Thu, with a 30% chance of gales persisting into Wed evening.

In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, SCA level winds are likely thru Tue night, especially in the afternoon/eve hours. There is a 50% chance of SCA conds during the afternoon/eve hours Wed/Thu. Seas are expected to be near SCA levels during the periods of weaker winds. There is a 25% chance of gale force winds during the afternoon/eve hours Mon into Tue.

In the SBA Channel, SCA level W-NW winds are expected across western portions during the afternoon thru late night hours thru Wed. Winds will likely remain below SCA levels for eastern portions of the channel through the period.

In the southern inner waters, there is a 20% chance of SCA level W to NW winds across northwestern portions, mainly from Anacapa Island to Malibu during the late afternoon thru late evening hours thru Tue.

Widespread strong to gale force winds will keep dangerous sea conditions across much of the coastal waters (particularly the outer waters) thru the middle of the week, with short-period, steep, and choppy waves. There may be dangerous breaking waves near west-facing harbors. Mariners should plan accordingly.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PDT Monday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory now in effect until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 377-378-381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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Gaviota
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Sun -- 12:05 AM PDT     5.07 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:13 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:03 AM PDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:20 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:46 PM PDT     2.70 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:32 PM PDT     2.65 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:43 PM PDT     Sunset
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