Tuesday, September25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Goleta, CA

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 6:52PM Tuesday September 25, 2018 6:31 AM PDT (13:31 UTC) Moonrise 6:38PMMoonset 6:15AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 236 Am Pdt Tue Sep 25 2018
Today..Winds variable 10 kt or less becoming W winds 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy dense fog with vsby 1 nm or less in the morning.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 20 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 2 ft at 8 seconds.
Wed..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 6 seconds.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 20 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Thu..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 6 seconds.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 6 seconds.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft.
PZZ600 236 Am Pdt Tue Sep 25 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 09z...or 2 am pdt, a 1032 mb high was located 500 nm W of seattle. A 1008 mb low was located near yuma az.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Goleta, CA
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location: 34.47, -120     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 251208
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
508 am pdt Tue sep 25 2018

Synopsis 25 325 am.

Afternoon temperatures will be near normal today. An upper high
will bring temperatures to much above normal levels Wednesday and
Thursday. Low pressure will bring some cooling on Friday, with
much cooler weather Saturday through Monday.

Short term (tdy-thu) 25 345 am.

Low clouds were widespread in all coastal and valley areas this
morning, with the exception of the santa clarita valley, and
clouds will probably push into that area before daybreak.

The marine layer was around 1800 feet again early this morning.

Onshore pressure gradients have begun to weaken. Profiler data
was showing a bit of cooling all the way through 4000 feet, with
the most cooling between 2000 and 3000 feet. With weakening
onshore gradients and a weakening inversion, except somewhat
faster clearing today, by mid morning in the valleys, and by late
morning across most of the coastal plain. The WRF shows some
warming at 950 mb this afternoon, and this, in concert with
faster clearing and weaker onshore flow, expect a few degrees of
warming in most areas today. This will bring temps close to normal
in most areas.

An upper high well off the pac NW coast will build into northern
california tonight and wed. Another ridge will develop just to the
west of the forecast area ahead of a large upper low moving slowly
eastward through the eastern pacific, far to the west of the
region. Heights and thicknesses will rise across the forecast area,
which will cause the marine layer to become more shallow. Night
through morning low clouds and fog will likely be confined to the
coastal plain, and possibly to locations within a few miles of the
beaches. Pressure gradients will become nearly neutral late
tonight, then will be only weakly onshore Wed afternoon. This
should lead to significant warming in all areas on wed, with temps
possibly approaching 100 degrees in the antelope valley, at lower
mountain elevations, and in the warmest locations in the valleys.

The upper low will continue to move slowly toward ca Wed night and
thu, the ridge will hold strongly across the region. Gradients may
even become very weakly offshore Thu morning, then become onshore
thu afternoon. Expect night through morning low clouds and fog
to be confined to the coastal plain, and once again possibly to
areas near the immediate coast. There may be a bit of cooling
near the coast on thu, mainly north of point conception.

Elsewhere, expect similar MAX temps, and there could even be a
couple of degrees of warming across ventura and los angeles
counties away from the beaches.

Long term (fri-mon) 25 414 am.

The ec and the GFS are in fairly good agreement showing the upper
low tracking eastward toward the west coast Thu night fri, and it
will be located about 250 nm west of san francisco by late fri
afternoon. Heights thicknesses will fall across the region, and
onshore flow will increase fri. Expect more in the way of night
through morning low clouds Thu night Fri morning, with clouds
possibly sneaking into the valleys. There should be several
degrees of cooling in most areas fri, especially in the valleys.

Both the GFS and ec show the upper low tracking into far northern
ca or extreme southern oregon late by late Sat afternoon and
evening, a definite shift to the north for the gfs. A trough will
extend southward to just west of the forecast area. Expect the
marine layer to continue to deepen, with widespread night thru
morning low cloud in all coastal and valley areas. There should be
several more degrees of cooling in most areas sat, with temps down
to near or possibly evening slightly below normal levels.

A trough will linger west of the region on sun, maintaining a deep
marine layer and plenty of night morning low clouds and fog west
of the mountains. Do not expect too much change in MAX temps sun.

For Sun night mon, the models begin to diverge, with a rather
complex upper pattern evolving across the eastern pacific. The ec
has an upper low approaching northern ca Sun night, while the gfs
has a broader trough in this location, with a strong upper low a
few hundred miles to the northwest of it. The ec shows its upper
low moving into northern ca on mon, while the GFS shows the first
trough minoring out and its upper low dropping southward to a
position a few hundred miles west of pt conception by mon
afternoon. The ec suggests that the tail end of a frontal system
could bring a chance of rain to areas north of pt conception on
mon. The GFS captures an upper system off baja and lifts it
northward across northern baja and extreme southern ca by mon
afternoon. The GFS shows rain across most of l.A. County Monday
afternoon, with significant rain just to the south and east of the
area. This looks a bit odd, but it certainly bears watching, and
a chance of precip may have to be introduced into the forecast for
mon is later runs continue to support this solution.

Aviation 25 1207z.

At 1113z, the marine layer depth was near 1300 feet deep at klax.

The top of the inversion was around 3500 feet with a temperature
of 22 degrees celsius.

N of point conception... Moderate confidence with ifr CIGS at
coastal tafs and vlifr conds at kprb. 30% chance that coastal cigs
could lower to lifr and also linger an additional hour from 12z
tafs. Expect similar conditions tonight with stratus developing
+ - 2 hours from currents tafs. Except better chance for lifr cigs
for ksmx ksbp. Higher confidence with no CIGS at kprb early wed
morning.

S of point conception... Moderate confidence with MVFR CIGS for
coastal tafs with high ifr CIGS at ksba briefly before coming
MVFR. Moderate confidence for ifr CIGS for valley TAF sites. 30%
chance that coastal CIGS could linger an additional hour or two.

Higher confidence for no CIGS for valley tafs tonight into wed
morning.

Klax... MVFR conditions will persist through at least 17z or as
late as 19z. No wind impacts are expected at this time.

Kbur... Ifr CIGS will scour out 16z or 17z this morning. Higher
confidence forVFR conds tonight into Wed morning. 30% chance for
ifr CIGS after 10z tonight.

Marine 25 152 am.

High confidence in wind and sea conditions remaining below small
craft advisory levels (sca) through Thursday and possibly into
Friday. There is a 30 percent chance of small craft advisory winds
late Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening across the
western portion of the outer waters.

No SCA issues expected for the inner waters through at least
Friday.

Dense fog with visibility one nautical mile or less will likely
affect portions of the coastal waters N of point conception
through this morning.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (thu-mon)
No significant hazards expected.

Public... Db
aviation... Kaplan
marine... Kaplan
synopsis... Db
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 17 mi56 min 60°F 1013.1 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 17 mi32 min WSW 5.8 G 7.8 60°F 66°F1013.3 hPa (+0.7)60°F
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 29 mi32 min 9.7 G 12 1012.6 hPa (+0.7)
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 35 mi32 min NNE 5.1 G 6 54°F 1013.6 hPa (+0.9)
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 37 mi41 min 67°F2 ft
46218 - Harvest, CA (071) 42 mi62 min 60°F6 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA9 mi39 minSW 310.00 miOvercast60°F57°F90%1012.7 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA10 mi57 minN 02.50 miFog/Mist50°F50°F100%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5SE4E5SE5SE5SE8SE9S10S9W8W10W11W7W4CalmNE3NE3E4E4S6SE7SE5CalmSW3
1 day agoCalmSW3CalmS6SW7S5S5SW7SW8W10W12W10W6W3E4E4E5E5SE4SE6SE6NE4NE53
2 days agoCalmSE3NE3CalmCalmSW6SW8W11W10W12W12W10W7CalmCalmE3NE6E4E3E4E3E3S4E3

Tide / Current Tables for Gaviota, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.