Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 3:03 AM   Moonset 3:13 PM

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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 351 Am Pdt Sat May 4 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Sunday afternoon - ..gale watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night - .
Today - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon, except 15 to 20 kt western portion. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 7 seconds.Tonight - W to nw winds 10 to 20 kt early, becoming 15 to 25 kt with local gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 7 seconds. Rain likely in the evening. Sun - W to nw winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, increasing to 20 to 30 kt with possible gusts to 40 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 8 seconds, building to 7 to 10 ft dominant period 8 seconds in the afternoon.Sun night - W to nw winds 20 to 30 kt with possible gusts to 40 kt in the evening, becoming 15 to 25 kt late. Combined seas 8 to 11 ft dominant period 8 seconds, subsiding to 7 to 9 ft dominant period 9 seconds after midnight. Mon - NW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming W 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 9 seconds. Mon night - W winds 15 to 25 kt with local gusts to 30 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt late. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 8 seconds. Tue - W to nw winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft.Wed - W to nw winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft.

PZZ600 351 Am Pdt Sat May 4 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 10z, or 3 am pdt, a 1002 mb low was centered in oregon, with a front extending southwestward. This front will move across the waters this afternoon and early tonight. A 1022 mb high 900 nm W of point conception will build into the eastern pacific late tonight and Sun. Gusty winds and steep seas will affect the waters at times through Sun, with gale force winds possible in the southern waters Sun afternoon into Sun night.

FXUS66 KLOX 040427 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 927 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
03/855 PM.

Cooler than normal temperatures will continue through at least the weekend as a weak storm system moves across California. Some light precipitation is expected Saturday afternoon into very early Sunday along with some gusty winds at times, mainly over interior areas. A warming and drying trend will develop next week.

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...03/927 PM.

***UPDATE***

Today low clouds associated with the deep marine layer extended over most coast and valley locations. These clouds were slow to burn off south of Point Conception, lasting into the late afternoon for Los Angeles County, and all-day for Santa Barbara city and much of Ventura County. Temperatures were cooler than yesterday by 2 to 5 degrees, resulting in below normal conditions for all coasts and valleys by about 3 to 7 degrees.

Tomorrow the incoming storm system will near the region, resulting in increasing mid to high cloud cover as the day progresses, and temperatures will drop significantly, with the majority of highs in the 60s. Southwest to west winds will be gusty for interior SLO County and Antelope Valley and San Gabriel Mountains of LA County.
Wind Advisories will be issued this evening for the aforementioned portions of LA County, starting at noon on Saturday and lasting until 5 AM on Sunday. Gusts of 40-50 mph are expected to be common for these areas. Saturday night, Sundowner wind will impact much of the Santa Barbara south coast, including Santa Barbara city and Montecito. At this time wind gusts may reach 30-45 mph, and wind advisories will likely be needed for this area. More widespread advisory-level winds are likely on Sunday.

Light rain is on track to begin for northwestern portions of SLO County Saturday afternoon, spreading south during the evening and overnight. Rain totals continue to look very minimal, with just a few hundredth on a inch expected for Santa Barbara City, and LA/Ventura Counties coasts, valleys, and deserts. However, accumulations of 0.25 inch will be possible over the San Gabriel mountains, and up to 0.50 inch over NW San Luis Obispo County.

***From Previous Discussion***

A late season storm is approaching California today and we're already feeling the effects of it in the form of a deeper and slow clearing marine layer as well as much cooler temperatures. Models have been quite consistent the last several runs indicating high chances for rain north of Pt Conception starting Saturday afternoon. The trajectory of the storm and the primarily westerly low level flow isn't as favorable a pattern for southern areas in terms of rain but most areas should see at least some sprinkles or light showers Saturday night. Ensembles continue to project around a quarter inch northern areas, tapering down to a tenth or less in the south. Most of the precip will be done before sunrise Sunday, so most of Sunday will be dry with plenty of sunshine but still cooler than normal with some breezy and conditions, especially near the coast and in the mountains.

Monday will be much warmer as the storm moves into the Plains and onshore flow weakens.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...03/217 PM.

The remainder of next week is expected to be fairly quiet with a slow warming trend, mainly inland as California sits between a low pressure system over the Great Basin and high pressure over the eastern Pacific. Coastal area temperatures will be near normal with possibly some increasing marine layer stratus by around mid week. There is potential for more significant warming (again mainly inland) next Friday into next weekend if the ridge over the eastern Pacific shifts east into California as some models are showing.

AVIATION
04/0054Z.

At 0000Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2400 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 4600 feet with a temperature of 19 degrees Celsius.

Overall, moderate to high confidence in the 00Z TAFs. MVFR CIGS are forecast to arrive at all sites except KPRB, KPMD and KWJF between 03Z-06Z. The CIGs are expected to linger through the period as a storm system approaches the area, with -RA likely after around 21Z north of Point Conception, and after 00Z-06Z further south. There is a 30-40 percent chance that CIGs could lift to VFR at any site between 18Z-00Z Saturday afternoon.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. MVFR CIGs are expected by 03Z but the arrival time could be delayed by up to 2 hours.
There is a 30 percent chance that CIGs remain at MVFR level between 23Z-03Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. For tonight, there is a 30% chance that MVFR CIGs could arrive as early as 03Z.

MARINE
03/828 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For tonight, Gale Warnings have been downgraded to Small Craft Advisories (SCA) and will continue into Saturday morning.
For Saturday through Wednesday, high confidence in combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas with a 40-60% chance of Gale force winds Sunday afternoon through Sunday night, and possibly into Monday, over the southern outer waters from Point Conception to San Nicolas Island. Across all of the outer waters, there will be a 30% chance of Gales Monday night, with winds then gradually decreasing through Wednesday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Winds have subsided below SCA levels this evening. Saturday through Wednesday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds with the strongest winds during the afternoon and evening hours. Additionally, there is a 30-40% chance of Gale force winds Sunday night and Monday, but especiall Monday night. SCA winds are likely to follow Tuesday through Wednesday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Saturday night through Sunday night, high confidence in a combination of SCA level winds and seas with a 40-50% chance of Gale force winds Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, especially across western sections. For Monday through Wednesday, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from noon Saturday to 5 AM PDT Sunday for zones 379>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Gale Watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for zones 650-655-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 8 AM PDT Saturday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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Gaviota
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Sat -- 01:49 AM PDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:03 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:07 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:41 AM PDT     4.41 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:50 PM PDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:12 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:48 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:17 PM PDT     5.26 feet High Tide
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Gaviota, California, Tide feet

Cuyler Harbor
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Sat -- 01:45 AM PDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:03 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:08 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:35 AM PDT     4.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:47 PM PDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:13 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:48 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:11 PM PDT     5.15 feet High Tide
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Cuyler Harbor, San Miguel Island, California, Tide feet

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