Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Solvang, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 7:47PM Thursday August 17, 2017 10:37 AM PDT (17:37 UTC) Moonrise 1:05AMMoonset 3:28PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 907 Am Pdt Thu Aug 17 2017
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 10 seconds.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Fri..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sat..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening...becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
PZZ600 907 Am Pdt Thu Aug 17 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 16z...or 9 am pdt...a 1027 mb surface high was about 400 nm west of eureka, california while a 1010 mb low was near yuma, arizona. Light to moderate west to northwest flow will continue across the coastal waters through the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Solvang, CA
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location: 34.47, -120.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 171649
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
949 am pdt Thu aug 17 2017

Synopsis
Weak low pressure aloft will prevail across southwestern
california through next week providing near to below normal
temperatures with night to morning low clouds for coastal areas.

Short term (tdy-sat)
marine lyr coverage pretty minimal south of pt conception this
morning due to a weaker inversion. Gradients are trending very
lightly offshore as well. Clouds tried to redevelop after sunrise
across la county but without much success. Temps most areas today
should climb 3-6 degrees from yesterday. Still just a hair below
normal.

***from previous discussion***
the marine layer will be better organized tonight but it will be
fairly shallow so only expecting coastal low clouds with the vlys
remaining clear. The vlys and inland areas will see another degree
or two of warming Friday as hgts peak but the better marine layer
will knock a couple degrees from the coastal highs.

Saturday will be very similar to Friday as there are little to no
changes in the meteorological parameters.

Long term (sun-wed)
both the ec and the GFS agree that a trof will arrive on Sunday.

On Monday a cut off low will develop at the base of the trof to
the west of the area. This low will the spin in about the same
place through Tuesday and then move overhead Wednesday. Look for
the cyclonic flow of the trof upper low to lift the marine layer
deep into the vlys.

The temperature forecast is a little tricky as all guidance is
keep temps that seem a little too warm for such a deep marine
layer pattern. This might be explained by the gradients which are
only weakly onshore due to the sfc reflection of the upper low to
the west of the area. The weak gradients combined with hgts that
are not that low (588 dm) and the warm august sunshine may explain
the warmer MAX temps. Will hole with the guidance for now but if
the marine layer is more stubborn than fcst MAX temps could well
be 3 to 6 degrees cooler than fcst.

Aviation 17 1000z.

At 09z, the marine layer depth was around 1400 ft deep at klax.

The top of the marine inversion was around 2300 ft with a
temperature near 19 degrees celsius.

Low confidence in coastal terminal forecast... Moderate confidence
all remaining sites. At coastal terminals, there is a chance of
ifr to MVFR conditions through 18z, and again after 04z tonight.

The earliest arrival is likely for central coast terminals
tonight, later at coastal terminals south of point conception.

Klax... There is a 40 percent chance of MVFR conditions through
18z, and again after 06z tonight. Otherwise,VFR conditions will
likely persist throughout the period.

Kbur...VFR conditions are expected throughout the period, except
for a 20 percent chance of lifr to MVFR conditions between 13z and
16z.

Marine 17 900 am.

Moderate to high confidence in the forecast. Winds should remain
below small craft advisory levels through early next week. There
is a 40 percent chance of small craft advisory conditions
developing on Friday afternoon and evening across the southern
outer waters. There is 20 percent chance of small craft advisory
conditions across the santa barbara and san pedro channels each
afternoon and evening through the weekend.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (sat-wed)
no significant hazards expected.

Public... Mw rorke
aviation... Hall
marine... Sweet
synopsis... Munroe
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 20 mi38 min WNW 12 G 16 61°F 61°F1017 hPa (+1.5)58°F
HRVC1 24 mi50 min 1017.6 hPa
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 24 mi38 min N 12 G 13 59°F 1017.6 hPa (+1.3)
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 25 mi38 min SW 5.8 G 7.8 62°F 66°F1017.8 hPa (+1.4)60°F
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 28 mi62 min S 2.9 G 5.1 65°F 1017 hPa
46218 - Harvest, CA (071) 30 mi38 min 63°F5 ft
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 47 mi38 min 66°F3 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA12 mi43 minN 010.00 miFair64°F53°F68%1017.3 hPa
Lompoc, Lompoc Airport, CA19 mi42 minVar 410.00 miFair64°F57°F78%1017.7 hPa
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA21 mi45 minSSE 710.00 miFair69°F62°F78%1016.7 hPa

Wind History from IZA (wind in knots)
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W10W13W11W9W8W5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3
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W10W13W13W10W9W8W6W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE4CalmCalmW4
2 days agoW4W4W8W11W13W16
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Tide / Current Tables for Gaviota, California
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Gaviota
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:31 AM PDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:05 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:23 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:03 AM PDT     3.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:45 PM PDT     2.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:28 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:09 PM PDT     5.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:45 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.20.20.61.32.233.53.73.63.22.72.32.22.53.144.95.65.95.753.92.5

Tide / Current Tables for Point Arguello, California
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Point Arguello
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:20 AM PDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:07 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:25 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:58 AM PDT     3.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:28 PM PDT     2.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:30 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:57 PM PDT     5.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:47 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.10.20.71.42.333.53.73.53.12.72.42.42.73.44.25.15.75.95.64.83.62.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.