Tuesday, July17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Solvang, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 8:15PM Monday July 16, 2018 10:35 PM PDT (05:35 UTC) Moonrise 9:05AMMoonset 10:15PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 825 Pm Pdt Mon Jul 16 2018
Tonight..W winds 10 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt. Winds strongest western portion. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 ft at 7 seconds.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 7 seconds.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Wed..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 ft at 7 seconds.
Thu..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
PZZ600 825 Pm Pdt Mon Jul 16 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 03z...or 8 pm pdt, a 1031 mb surface high was located about 1000 nm northwest of point conception, while a 1003 mb thermal low was centered near las vegas.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Solvang, CA
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location: 34.47, -120.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 170355
afdlox
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
855 pm pdt Mon jul 16 2018

Synopsis 16 258 pm.

Temperatures will remain hot across the region for at least another
week though onshore flow will provide some overnight and morning
relief along the coast. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms
Wednesday and Thursday afternoon across the antelope valley and the
mountains of los angeles, ventura, and eastern santa barbara counties.

Short term (mon-thu) 16 854 pm.

The latest satellite imagery shows an upper-level ridge of high
pressure centered along the central california coast this evening.

The ridge center will slowly drift east into the great basin
through Thursday. A warming trend will take shape through
Wednesday as the ridge move over the state. A more shallow marine
layer will develop along with weaker onshore flow over the coming
days. An easterly wave over eastern arizona this evening will move
beneath the ridge into southern california on Tuesday, followed by
another wave on Wednesday, currently sitting near the big bend of
texas. An increase of monsoonal moisture will occur on Tuesday and
into Wednesday. Less marine layer stratus coverage should be
expected as the moisture will play tricks on the marine layer
inversion.

The current forecast looks agreeable and no updates are planned at
this time.

***from previous discussion***
things start to get a little more interesting late Tuesday and
Wednesday as monsoon moisture starts to increase from the east.

Also watching a couple little easterly waves embedded in the flow
that could provide some additional energy to generate storms.

However, models currently keeping these waves south of la county
so probably better chances there for storms to either develop or
spread into the coast valleys. Given the available energy storm
initiation will likely not be confined to just the afternoon hours
so some overnight convection is possible should the influence of
those waves extend further north into our forecast area. For now
will just indicate small chances for storms across the coastal
waters off the orange county coast Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning along with the typical mountain desert pops. Smaller pops
across la ventura counties coast valleys and for now will leave
precip out of those areas. Where storms form there is the
potential for periods of heavy rain and isolated flooding as
precipitable waters increase to as high as 1.8" early Wednesday
and almost 2" Wednesday afternoon.

The added monsoon moisture will certainly make things feel more
muggy, especially southern areas and overnight lows will be
warming up as a result. There will likely be some hit on the
marine layer south of pt conception though that's always a tough
call with these more marginal monsoon cases. Temperatures expected
to warm up slightly at least for coast valleys as onshore flow
weakens slightly along with possibly less overall stratus
coverage with the monsoon moisture moving in. At the very least it
will feel warmer as humidities increase.

Still fairly moist aloft Thu though with more of a southerly
component to the steering flow and a lack of short waves it's
likely afternoon convection will remain confined to the mountain
and desert areas. Warm and muggy again with fairly minimal marine
layer.

Long term (fri-mon) 16 142 pm.

Monsoon moisture starts to dry up Friday though the flow aloft is
still favorable should additional moisture sources develop before
then. So the current forecast maintains dry conditions though
given the continued southeast flow aloft this certainly could
change. A slight increase in onshore flow Friday along with dip
in the temps aloft should lead to slightly cooler temps but
still above normal and probably less humid as well.

Not much change Saturday. Still a somewhat favorable upper level
pattern for monsoon moisture but so far models are keeping things
pretty dry. Will probably see some afternoon cumulus over the
mountains but not much more unless additional moisture moves in.

Sunday and Monday look to be the beginning of a warming trend
across the area that will last well into next week, though for
now not expected to even approach the numbers we saw on july 6 as
models not showing any significant northerly flow developing.

Triple digit temps expected in the warmer valleys and 105-108 in
the av by Monday and possibly low 90s in the inland coastal zones.

Despite being 10+ degrees cooler than the previous major heat
wave these numbers still put a pretty large portion of the area
under at least heat advisory criteria with some localized warning
level temperatures possible.

Aviation 17 0013z.

At 23z, the marine layer depth was around 1350 feet deep at klax.

The top of the marine inversion was around 2100 feet with a
temperature of 25 degrees celsius. There was another inversion up
to around 4100 feet. The marine layer depth will become more
shallow through Tuesday, and the marine inversion will
strengthen.

Low to moderate confidence in the current forecast, except high
confidence in the forecast for desert terminals.

South of point conception, ifr to MVFR conditions will likely spread
into the coastal terminals through 13z. Higher confidence in MVFR
conditions south of kntd.VFR conditions should be slightly slower
to develop Tuesday, possibly not clearing until one to three
hours later than forecast.

North of point conception, lifr to ifr conditions will spread into
coastal and lower valley terminals through 13z. Conditions will
likely deteriorate to lifr after 05z.VFR conditions should be
slightly slower to develop on Tuesday.

Klax... There is a 70 percent chance of MVFR conditions developing
at klax between 06z and 18z. There is a 30 percent chance that
MVFR conditions could linger until as late as 21z.

Kbur...VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. There is
a 20 percent chance of MVFR visibilities between 13z and 16z.

Marine 16 843 pm.

Marginal small craft advisory winds and short-period seas will
linger through late tonight across the outer coastal waters south
of point sal and northwest of san nicolas island. Winds and seas
will likely drop below criteria across the entire coastal waters
through Friday. There is a 30 percent chance of small craft
advisory level winds on Tuesday night near point conception.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pdt Tuesday for
zones 673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (thu-mon)
An influx of monsoonal moisture could bring shower and
thunderstorm activity and a threat of localized flooding to the
mountains and antelope valley Thursday. Warming temperatures
expected Sunday and Monday with the possibility of heat advisories
and or warnings Monday.

Public... Hall mw
aviation... Hall
marine... Hall
synopsis... Kj
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 20 mi25 min NW 21 G 27 63°F1014.3 hPa
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 24 mi35 min N 23 G 24 56°F 1015.7 hPa (+1.1)
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 25 mi25 min WSW 14 G 16 64°F 68°F1014.3 hPa64°F
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 28 mi59 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 64°F 1014.3 hPa
46218 - Harvest, CA (071) 30 mi35 min 61°F4 ft
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 47 mi44 min 68°F3 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA12 mi40 minSW 610.00 miFair59°F53°F82%1015.6 hPa
Lompoc, Lompoc Airport, CA19 mi39 minWNW 610.00 miOvercast58°F55°F90%1016.5 hPa
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA21 mi42 minESE 610.00 miFair66°F61°F84%1013.7 hPa

Wind History from IZA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW4SW5SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmSW4W3SW3W6W8W8W11W14W11W11W6W8SW6W5
1 day agoSW3SW4SW3SW3SW3SW3CalmW3CalmSW3SW3CalmW4W7W10W11W11W12W12W11SW9W8W6SW4
2 days agoSW4SW4SW3CalmCalmSW3SW3SW4CalmSW3W3W6W7W6W8SW11W9W10W13W9W9W7SW7SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Gaviota, California
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Gaviota
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:19 AM PDT     5.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:00 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:11 AM PDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:11 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:58 PM PDT     4.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:38 PM PDT     1.94 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:51 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.95.35.24.63.52.31.10.2-0.2-00.71.72.83.84.44.64.43.83.12.4222.32.9

Tide / Current Tables for Point Arguello, California
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Point Arguello
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:21 AM PDT     5.15 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:02 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:13 AM PDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:13 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:07 PM PDT     4.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:14 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:44 PM PDT     1.96 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:53 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.75.154.53.42.210.1-0.3-0.10.51.52.63.74.44.74.53.93.22.52.122.22.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.