Friday, October19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Solvang, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 6:22PM Friday October 19, 2018 6:30 AM PDT (13:30 UTC) Moonrise 3:03PMMoonset 1:16AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 315 Am Pdt Fri Oct 19 2018
Today..Eastern portion, ne winds 10 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt this morning, becoming variable 10 kt or less in the afternoon. Western portion, ne winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 12 seconds.
Tonight..W winds 10, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 11 seconds.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 11 seconds.
Sat night..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds.
Sun..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt early, becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
PZZ600 315 Am Pdt Fri Oct 19 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 09z...or 2 am pdt, a 1029 mb high was centered in utah, with a ridge extending to a 1025 mb high 400 nm W of san francisco. A 1015 mb low was centered near needles with a weak trough extending to the california coast.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Solvang, CA
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location: 34.47, -120.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 191232
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
532 am pdt Fri oct 19 2018

Synopsis 19 310 am.

Locally moderate offshore winds, with warm and dry conditions are
expected through Saturday. This will bring fire weather danger to
some areas in los angeles and ventura counties through at least
this evening. Above normal temperatures will continue through the
weekend, with better cooling expected early next week. A slight
chance of showers across the ventura county mountains Sunday
afternoon. The cooling trend should continue early next week with
increasing night through morning low clouds for mainly coastal
areas.

Short term (tdy-sun) 19 301 am.

Latest fog product imagery indicated skies were mostly clear,
except patchy low clouds around lompoc and vandenberg afb. Since
there is weak offshore flow across much of the central coast,
figure that the low clouds and fog will scour out rather quickly
this morning. Lax-dag offshore gradients were around -3.5mb this
morning and should strengthen to just over -4 mb by daybreak. The
24-hour trend was about 1.5mb stronger than yesterday at this
time. This is strictly a surface gradient driven offshore wind
event with no upper support. Therefore, with gradients trending
slightly stronger offshore,expect slightly stronger santa ana
winds compared to yesterday morning. Still,winds are expected to
remain below wind advisory thresholds. There could be local gusts
between 35 and 40 mph in a few wind prone passes and canyons of
the valleys mountains this morning. The combination of the
offshore flow and slightly higher h5 heights and boundary layer
temps, high temps should bump up 2 to 6 degrees, while the central
coast should be 6 to 12 degrees warmer with highs reaching the mid
80s in many central coast locations.

Where the winds are not blowing, a very dry airmass with clear
skies will result in good radiational cooling in sheltered areas
again tonight into Sat morning. Temps are expected to drop into
the mid 30s to low 40s in the interior slo county vlys, and low
40s with the possibility of upper 30s in the ojai vly by late
tonight.

Not much change expected for Saturday, except slightly less wind
forecasted as the lax-dag surface gradients weaken but remain
offshore all day. High temps should moderate cooler a degree or
two in most areas. Could be more cooling across the central by
Saturday afternoon as the seabreeze kicks in earlier.

By Sunday, gradients turn onshore and an upper level trough
develops. This will bring several degrees of cooling to coastal
areas and somewhat cooler across inland areas as well, but not as
much. Models were hinting at some instability across the local
mountains with a pool of moisture across the ventura county
mountains and NE into the tehachapi mtns and sierras. Have added
a slight chance for thunderstorms for the ventura county mtns
Sunday afternoon, but have kept them out of the san gabriel mtns
at this time as soundings were not as impressive with moisture and
some capping aloft. If showers or thunderstorms do occur Sunday
afternoon, they should be short lived as pwat values will be under
an inch, although showers will be slowly moving slowly.

Long term (mon-thu) 19 315 am.

Both the GFS and ECMWF models look to be in good agreement with
large scale features early next week through Thursday. The
cooling trend will continue through Wednesday as a broad upper
trough lingers across the area. Temperatures should lower down to
more seasonal normals. The european model is slightly quicker in
nudging an upper level ridge from the eastern pac over socal by
thu, but the GFS matches up nicely on Friday with a strong 590 dm
high sitting off the coast. Expect high temps to climb late this
week, especially on Friday. Surface gradients show another
offshore flow developing. Too soon to say how strong, but as of
now, does not look anything strong as not picking up on any cold
air settling into the great basin.

Aviation 19 1218z.

At 12z at klax, there was no inversion or marine layer.

Except for local dense fog and low clouds with vlifr conditions
across portions of the central coast through mid morning, clear
skies andVFR conds are expected across the region thru the pd.

Areas of gusty N to NE winds will affect portions of l.A. And vtu
counties, with local llws and mdt uddf.

Klax... High confidence in the 12z TAF withVFR conds thru the pd.

Kbur... High confidence in the 12z TAF withVFR conds thru the pd.

Marine 19 321 am.

For the outer waters, high confidence that winds will remain below
small craft advisory (sca) level thru this weekend. There is a
20% chance of local SCA level n-ne wind gusts across the
southern zone (pzz676) this morning, mainly in eastern portions.

There is a 30-40% chance of SCA level NW winds across the outer
waters Mon thru tue, except SCA level winds are likely during that
time across the northern outer waters zone (pzz670).

Across the inner waters N of point conception, winds should
remain below SCA levels thru this weekend, then there is a chance
of SCA level winds mon, and SCA level NW winds are expected tue.

For the coastal waters S of point conception, winds should remain
below SCA levels thru tue, except there will be a 40% chance of
sca level NW winds this morning from pt. Mugu to santa monica,
and less likely across the san pedro channel.

Fire weather 19 530 am.

Northeasterly offshore winds will increase this morning then
slowly weaken Saturday and Sunday. These winds will not be nearly
as strong as what occurred earlier this week, but gusts between 30
and 40 mph are expected over los angeles and ventura counties
during the peak this morning. The moderately dry conditions
currently occurring will lower a little today, with minimum
humidities generally between 10 and 15 percent at lower
elevations. Humidities will then increase Saturday and Sunday. As
a result, along with little to no improvement in fuel conditions
today, a marginal red flag warning has been issued for much of
los angeles and ventura counties through late this evening, with
elevated but below critical conditions on Saturday. While this
event will not be nearly as severe as what occurred on Monday and
Tuesday, it is still a serious situation.

There will be locally gusty easterly winds (gusts of 20 to 30
mph) and dry conditions (8 to 18 percent humidities) over santa
barbara and san luis obispo counties as well, but the winds will
be weaker than their neighbors to the south. Elevated fire
conditions will persist there, but conditions should stay below
red flag thresholds.

This is a dangerous situation. The public needs to use extreme
caution with any potential fire ignition sources. Large fires
have been started by things like discarded cigarettes, campfires,
welding equipment, metallic weed wackers, and dragging trailer
chains.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Red flag warning in effect until 10 pm pdt this evening for
zones 240-241-244>246-253-254-288-547-548. (see laxrfwlox).

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (sun-thu)
No significant hazards expected.

Public... Kaplan
aviation... Db
marine... Db
fire... Kittell kaplan
synopsis... Kaplan
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 20 mi30 min 14 G 18 1015.9 hPa (-0.0)
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 24 mi30 min N 18 G 19 58°F 1016.9 hPa (-0.4)
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 25 mi30 min WSW 3.9 G 5.8 65°F 66°F1016.5 hPa (+0.0)65°F
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 28 mi54 min N 2.9 G 4.1 62°F 1016.7 hPa
46218 - Harvest, CA (071) 30 mi30 min 62°F8 ft
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 47 mi39 min 64°F3 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA12 mi55 minN 010.00 miFair43°F35°F76%1017.9 hPa
Lompoc, Lompoc Airport, CA19 mi34 minE 510.00 miFair45°F44°F97%1018.3 hPa
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA21 mi37 minN 010.00 miFair51°F42°F71%1016.2 hPa

Wind History from IZA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalm--W6W4W9
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W13W9W6SW7CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6S9S6SW9
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W10W12W7SW5SW5E3CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W8W12
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W14W14W12W10W6CalmW3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Gaviota, California
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Gaviota
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Fri -- 01:34 AM PDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:16 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:09 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:17 AM PDT     4.39 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:52 PM PDT     2.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:02 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:21 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:35 PM PDT     4.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.70.71.11.72.63.44.14.44.33.93.32.72.22.12.32.83.44.14.44.54.13.42.4

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, California
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Santa Barbara
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Fri -- 01:13 AM PDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:14 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:07 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:55 AM PDT     4.41 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:32 PM PDT     2.16 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:59 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:19 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:13 PM PDT     4.56 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.60.71.322.93.74.24.44.23.73.12.62.22.22.53.13.74.34.54.43.93.12.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.