Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 3:38 AM   Moonset 4:25 PM

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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1212 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
This afternoon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 7 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the afternoon. Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue night - SW winds 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Wed - SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wed night - SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Thu - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Thu night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 1212 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will occur today through Tue due to passages of several upper level disturbances, diurnal heating, and the daily sea breeze. Bermuda high pressure and the piedmont trough will combine to produce modest sw winds Tue through Fri.

FXUS62 KILM 051606 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1206 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur today through Monday due to several upper level disturbances, diurnal heating, and the daily sea breeze. Dry high pressure will build overhead by Wednesday with well above normal temperatures Wednesday through Friday. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Fri due to an approaching frontal system and upper low.

UPDATE
Only minor updates needed but overall forecast on track for sct convection through this aftn with mix of sun and clouds.
Most feeding in along the coast of SC up through inland NC.
Appears to be focused along lingering boundary but this should lift north through late this aftn. Steering flow shifts from S-SW to a more SW-W direction later in the day, but most models show convection fading away by early eve with weak ridging building up the Southeast coast. Temps will max out around 80 most places.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Deeper moisture will overspread the remaining portions of the FA today into tonight, ie. across Southeast NC, as a couple mid-level s/w trofs push across the FA and thru the low amplitude upper ridge. POPs will peak later this morning thru early this evening as diurnal heating and whats left of a weak inland sfc boundary and even a weak sea breeze, all combine to aid the necessary forcing. Shower and tstorm activity likely will be slow movers, not as slow as Sat, with light to modest rainfall deposits and 25 mph wind gusts the main convection results. Also, more clouds than visible sun expected today given the amount of convection anticipated and the resulting convective debris clouds expected. Convection should fade in the evening, except for the immediate coast and adjacent waters, where we'll hold onto a chance POP thru the night. Highs today will be in the upper 70s with a few locations eclipsing 80 degrees. Tonights lows, balmy 60s to near 70 at the coast given local SSTs having now reached the 70s given the extended period of onshore flow.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Unsettled weather continues during the early portion of next week. Weak shortwave traversing the Carolinas will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms on Monday. Weak ridging builds behind the shortwave on Tuesday, but warmer temperatures will produce better instability on Tuesday afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms likely to develop, primarily along the sea breeze. High temperatures in the mid and upper 80s and overnight clearing with lows in the upper 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Ridging amplifies during the middle of the week. Expect above normal temperatures with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s.
SW winds will pin the sea breeze near the coast, keeping coastal sites above normal as well. The warmest temperatures are expected on Wednesday.

Friday will be a day worth monitoring for severe weather. The ingredients aren't yet showing enough continuity to sound the alarm, but the mesoscale and synoptic pattern certainly grab our attention. Days of above normal temperatures will precondition an unstable environment and a low level dynamics will increase ahead of a strong upper low and surface cold front.

Cooler and drier behind a cold front next weekend.

AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR with sporadic MVFR ceilings and isolated shra will dominate this morning and further become more widespread as the day progresses. Will indicate prevailing -shra but at only 6sm prevailing vsby. Will introduce a prob30 for a TSRA threat, during the mid to late morning thru mid to late afternoon across the appropriate terminals. Have included vrb15g25 kt wind threat within the prob30 tsra threat. Will continue the vcsh threat after sunset and thru the evening for just the coastal terminals, with a better chance for the coastal terminals seeing pcpn during the pre-dawn Mon hrs. Inland terminals should see cloud improvements to mid and upper levels. Winds generally SE- SSE 4 to 6 kt early this morning, becoming/increasing to SSE-S 6 to 10 kt during daylight Sun and diminishing back to 5 kt or less after sunset.

Extended Outlook...Scattered convection will bring periodic visibility and ceiling restrictions Mon into Tue. Otherwise, looking at VFR dominating outside the pcpn and becoming the mainstay late Tue thru Thu.

MARINE
Through tonight...Onshore SSE-S flow at 10 to occasionally 15 kt will dominate this period as the sfc pg slightly tightens as the sfc ridging pressure pattern modifies off the Carolina Coasts. Seas generally around 3 ft thru the period and comprised of a 3 to 5 second period windwave with an underlying 1 to 2 ft ESE-SE wave at 7 to 9 sec periods. Scattered showers and tstorms will be at their peak later this morning into the afternoon as an upper level s/w trof moves across.

Monday through Thursday Night... SW flow between 10-15 knots expected for much of the period. Afternoon sea breeze will see gusts up to 25 knots each afternoon. Seas generally 2-3 feet and increasing to 3-5 feet during the middle of next week due to prolonged fetch of SW flow and increasing southerly swell. Winds and seas begin to increase on Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front to near SCA thresholds.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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New Topsail Inlet
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Sun -- 12:32 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:01 AM EDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:42 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:28 PM EDT     3.75 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
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New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

Bannermans Branch
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Sun -- 01:31 AM EDT     1.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:39 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:56 PM EDT     1.42 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:57 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
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Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

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