Monday, February19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holly Ridge, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 5:58PM Monday February 19, 2018 2:49 PM EST (19:49 UTC) Moonrise 9:08AMMoonset 9:45PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 929 Am Est Mon Feb 19 2018
Rest of today..E winds 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers. Areas of fog this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers. Areas of fog.
Tue..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog.
Tue night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Wed..S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Wed night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Thu..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..E winds 10 kt or less, becoming se. Seas 3 ft.
AMZ200 929 Am Est Mon Feb 19 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A warm front will lift north across the area today. Bermuda high pressure will build in from the east for the remainder of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holly Ridge, NC
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location: 34.49, -77.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 191643
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1143 am est Mon feb 19 2018

Synopsis
A warm front should move onshore today, but may take until
tonight through move fully across the area. Bermuda high
pressure building in from the east will bring temperatures well
above normal this week with possible record warmth Wednesday
and Thursday. A cold front will likely stall to our north on
Friday. The bermuda high will again expand over the region for
the weekend. A cold front will approach from the northwest
Sunday night.

Near term through tonight
As of 1140 am Monday... Quick update to lower forecast high
temperatures another couple of degrees from florence, marion,
and myrtle beach northwestward toward lumberton and
bennettsville. While this is due to slower motion of the warm
front northward inland, along the coast it's due to a persist
streamer of low clouds pushing in from the gulf stream off the
south carolina coast that's obscuring the sky quite well over
the grand strand. If we're going to get sea fog it should star
to show itself shortly as dewpoints are exceeding 60 degrees on
the coast now. Discussion from 945 am follows...

although all land stations still have northeasterly winds
currently, the warm front isn't too far from the coast given
southeast winds reported as close as 30-35 miles from shore at
frying pan shoals buoy and cormp buoy 41037.

As you might imagine, models still show a variety of differing
solutions with how quickly the front jumps onshore and how far
inland and northward it progresses during the day. The 06z gfs
represents the extreme aggressive case for the warm front's
movement, whipping the boundary through virtually the entire
area this afternoon. The 06z NAM and latest several runs of the
hrrr represent the other extreme with a stubborn, dense and
cold airmass inland resisting the front's movement until late
tonight. The truth probably lies closer, but not entirely,
toward the slower progression of the front. I've tightened the
forecast temperature gradient across the area this afternoon,
adding a degree in spots near the coast and subtracting a couple
of degrees across bennettsville and the northern halves of
darlington and robeson counties. This yields highs in the mid
60s across darlington, bennettsville and northern robeson
county, and 70-75 degrees for most locations east of i-95. The
beaches should have highs stuck in the 60s given onshore winds
crossing cold water.

Dewpoints climbing into the 60s near the coast this afternoon
may develop some sea fog, particularly near the grand strand
where water temperatures are coldest. Ccu and ndbc pier
observations show water temps of 53-55 degrees along the
beaches. Discussion from 300 am follows...

high pressure extends down into the carolinas from the center
just off the mid atlantic coast while a coastal trough warm
front remains aligned just off the carolinas coast. Some patchy
drizzle, light rain and fog was over inland areas where weak
isentropic lift exists while some light showers were breaking
out along coastal trough just off the CAPE fear coast. Overall,
shallow moisture with low stratus and patchy fog was holding on
with a well defined near surface based inversion present.

This coastal warm front will push inland and north through this
afternoon with winds shifting around to the southeast to south.

All guidance is showing some breaks in the clouds expected
through this afternoon as inversion breaks. Warm and moist air
will follow as a southerly return flow sets up and ridge builds
aloft. Temps will rise quite rapidly through the 60s but a
fairly sharp gradient will exist as you move inland before the
warm front moves through. A fairly wide spread in guidance
exists with the NAM slower in pushing warm front through and
holding on to temps closer to 60 for highs in the i-95 corridor,
while the GFS has temps reaching 70. For now, have forecast
max temps just above 70 east of i-95 while places along and
west reaching into the mid 60s. Expect some spotty showers
associated with the coastal trough warm front and have included
mainly iso shwrs with best chc along the coast and offshore.

Not including much in terms of measurable pcp.

Dewpoint temps will follow suit into this evening and expect
widespread fog and stratus to develop heading into this evening
and overnight. Have included patchy to areas of fog into
tonight. This warm and moist airmass will support overnight lows
closer to 60 in most places with some mid 50s further inland.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
As of 300 am Monday... Unseasonably warm temperatures are
expected in the wake of a warm front as a strong western
atlantic ridge builds across the waters. Temperatures at 850 mb
are forecast to be 12-15c through the period. Subsidence and
only very shallow moisture should prevent any showers from
developing. However, model soundings continue to portray a
favorable profile for at least patchy late night and early
morning fog stratus. Also, with dewpoints in the lower to mid
60s through the period, any sea fog that does develop could
periodically impact some of the beaches at any point in the day
or night.

Highs will be well up in the 70s Tue and a couple 80 degree
readings are possible well inland. Highs on Wed will be similar
if not a degree or two higher. The seabreeze circulation should
be strengthening each afternoon and thus there should be a sharp
temp gradient near the coast with high temps at the beaches
stymied near or just above 70 degrees each afternoon. Lows each
night will be commonly in the lower 60s.

Record highs could be challenged on wed...

02 20
city high temperature forecast daily record high
wilmington 76 81 in 1991
florence 79 83 in 2014
n myrtle beach 72 77 in 1949
02 21
city high temperature forecast daily record high
wilmington 77 78 in 2014
florence 82 81 in 1997
n myrtle beach 72 76 in 1953

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 300 pm Sunday... Main theme for the extended will be
strong surface and mid-level ridging sitting off the coast.

Strong mid-level subsidence and deep southerly flow will
contribute to an extended period of temperatures well above
climo. While there is high confidence in a warm and mostly dry
period, there area a few times within the forecast with much
lower confidence. The first concerns a backdoor cold front thu
night into fri. Previous solutions had this feature moving into
the area late Thu night and lingering for much of Fri before
returning north as a warm front. However, recent guidance has
shifted away from this scenario, the both the GFS and ecmwf
being quicker to move the 1040 high across the great lakes and
into the northeast. Given the propensity for ridging to hold on
longer than the guidance expects, am leaning in favor of a
warmer, drier solution Thu night and fri. Another area of
uncertainty concerns potential cold front late in the period.

Gfs ECMWF currently bring this feature into the area later sun,
but not confident it will arrive that early, which would
contribute to warmer temps Sun night.

Temperatures, as previously mentioned, will be significantly
above normal for much if not all of the period. Medium range
guidance continues to depict heights at levels not seen before
during the last week of feb. At the same time 850 temps will
flirt with 15c. Away from the coast highs will run in the upper
70s to lower 80s through the period with the possible exception
of fri. Closer to the coast, the combination of water temps in
the mid 50s and an onshore flow will keep highs much cooler.

The large temperature gradient will also create rather windy
conditions on the cool side of what should be a strong sea
breeze. Lows will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s through
the period. Average daily temperatures could run 20-25 degrees
above normal each day. Another way of putting it would be that
the departure from normal next week will be equal to what the
area experienced during the first week of january 2018, just in
the opposite direction.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
As of 18z... Time height shows solid low level moisture up
through 850 mbs for most of the day. Ifr conditions will linger
inland this afternoon, but should briefly break before returning
this evening. Winds will be predominately southerly this
afternoon, with a stray shower possible. Tonight, there is a
solid chance for lifr conditions, probably after midnight,
associated with the warm air advection. Tuesday, fog stratus
will dissipate by mid morning with a continued southerly wind.

Extended outlook...VFR with periods of MVFR through fri. Good
chance of extended periods of ifr lifr in sea fog coastal
terminals tues-fri.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 945 am Monday... The warm front should begin the enter the
coastal waters shortly, shifting northeasterly winds around the
south but with only a modest increase in wind speeds. The bigger
issue may come as the moisture content of the atmosphere jumps
up behind the front. Nearshore water temperatures in the 53-55
degree range may be cold enough to trigger the development of
sea fog beginning this afternoon and lasting perhaps into
Tuesday. We'll continue to monitor this potential and may need
to issue a marine dense fog advisory sometime later today. Seas
of 2-4 feet should decrease by 0.5 to 1.0 foot through tonight.

Discussion from 300 am follows...

a coastal trough warm front aligned just off the carolina coast
will push inland and north through today. Therefore NE winds
will shift around through today to the e-se and eventually S by
late this aftn into early this evening. This will leave a warm
and moist southerly flow as bermuda high pressure begins to
dominate through tonight. Winds around 10 to 15 kts early this
morning will basically fall and remain around 10 kts or less
through the period with seas falling to 2 to 3 ft by this
afternoon. The only hazard may be the development of sea fog. As
dewpoint temps rise into the lower 60s through today into
tonight and cool shelf waters remain in teh mid 50s, the
potential will exist for some sea fog. SREF probs for vsby less
than 1 mile are close to 80 percent off of the sc coast and
spread northward in southerly flow.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night ...

as of 300 am Monday... Western atlantic ridge will bring benign
winds and seas. The wind will be S at 10 kt or less, although
afternoon and early eve winds should be in the 10 to 15 kt range
near shore due to the seabreeze circulation. Seas will be 2 to 3
ft although some 4 ft seas should begin to mix in Wed night.

The risk for some sea fog will remain through the period. Sea
surface temps across the near shore waters are in the mid 50s
while dewpoints advecting across these waters will be in the
lower to mid 60s, so just marginally conducive for sea fog
development. Also, the expected wind direction is not particularly
favorable for increasing the residence time over the cool shelf
waters. At this time, have only included patchy sea fog through
the entire forecast period.

Long term Thursday through Friday ...

as of 300 pm Sunday... Bermuda high will extend across the
waters through the period, maintaining south to southwest flow
with speeds 10 kt or less. Weak backdoor cold front will try to
drop in from the north early fri, but it is starting to look
like the front will stall before reaching the area. Flow may
become a little more easterly during fri, depending where the
front ends up, but speeds would drop closer to 5 kt. Seas will
run 2 to 3 ft through the period with occasional 4 ft possible
near frying pan shoals later Thu and Thu night.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rgz
near term... Tra rgz
short term... Rjd
long term... Iii
aviation... Dl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 21 mi49 min ESE 5.1 G 5.1 59°F 56°F1028.9 hPa (-1.7)
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi80 min 55°F4 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi41 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 57°F 54°F1028.7 hPa
WLON7 26 mi49 min 70°F 57°F1028.2 hPa (-1.9)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 37 mi101 min S 9.7 G 16 70°F 67°F1029.6 hPa
41159 40 mi79 min 67°F5 ft
41064 40 mi41 min S 7.8 G 12 70°F 67°F1029.1 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC17 mi53 minS 12 G 2010.00 miOvercast74°F63°F69%1028.6 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC22 mi56 minS 11 G 1710.00 miOvercast72°F64°F79%1028.5 hPa
Jacksonville, Albert J Ellis Airport, NC23 mi53 minS 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F64°F71%1028.9 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE13SE13E8E13E14E10E11NE6NE9NE9NE7NE10E7E6E9NE6E4N3E5NE3CalmSE4S10S12
G20
1 day agoNE6N6N6--S3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW8N5NW8N7N5N3N4N9N9N14NE9NE6E8
2 days agoSW12
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S7SW8N10N10N10N8N8N12
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NE14NE9E11NE8NE10NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
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Mon -- 03:13 AM EST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:07 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:28 AM EST     4.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:36 PM EST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:57 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:44 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:53 PM EST     4.13 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.21.10.1-0.3-0.10.51.52.63.64.14.13.62.61.50.4-0.2-0.30.212.13.23.94.13.8

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:14 AM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:08 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:45 AM EST     2.93 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:37 PM EST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:57 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:44 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:10 PM EST     2.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.91.30.60.1-0.2-00.51.32.22.82.92.72.21.60.80.2-0.1-0.20.20.91.82.62.92.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.