Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Reed Creek, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 5:24PM Monday November 20, 2017 12:59 AM EST (05:59 UTC) Moonrise 8:51AMMoonset 7:19PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Reed Creek, GA
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location: 34.5, -82.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 200528
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
1228 am est Mon nov 20 2017

Synopsis
Cool high pressure will move from east texas to the carolinas by
Monday evening as the wind becomes light. A weak cold front will
cross the area Tuesday night. Low pressure develops along the gulf
coast Thursday then moves up the atlantic seaboard through Friday.

Another strong cold front arrives next weekend.

Near term through today
As of 1225 am est: clouds have almost completely dissipated with the
diminishing moisture in the NW flow over the western nc mountains.

Ridge top gusts will linger but winds are diminishing in the valleys
and outside of the mountains as the gradient relaxes. Skies will
remain mostly clear at worst through the period, with perhaps just
some increasing high clouds occurring Monday afternoon. Temps will
remain unseasonably cool with mins tonight about 10 degrees below
climo and maxes Monday afternoon roughly 5 degrees below climo.

Short term tonight through Wednesday
As of 145 pm Sunday: not much change to the previous fcst. Good
model agreement is had with the ulvl ridge axis slowly shifting east
of the fa early Tue before a broad wave of ulvl energy approaches
from the southwest. This wave is not very dynamic and has little div
or llvl WAA ahead of it. It will be mainly an ulvl cloud maker
while some measure of moist isent lift develops in the lower levels.

The NAM continues to be the more aggressive soln wrt the amount of
moisture flux and also earlier than the other op guidance. Have
opted to keep the later arrival time of -shra arnd 15z over the wrn
zones and spreading east throughout the day. Pops will remain in the
isol sct range with little precip amounts. Another area of area of
strong high pressure will build in Tue night with the high center
remaining west of the fcst area as the ulvls become loosely
cyclonic.

Max temps will remain below normal by about 5 degrees f Tue and
rebound with less cloud cover Wed to near normal levels. Mins will
also begin about 8-10 degrees below normal and bump up a cat or so
tue night as cloud cover lingers.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
As of 130 pm est Sunday: the medium range forecast kicks off on
Wednesday night amidst an intruding cold front from the west as
a 1026mb high and accompanying canadian airmass spill into the
oh tn valleys. Meanwhile broad deep troffing prevails across the
eastern CONUS with a weak h5 shortwave diving through the mean
flow atop the northern gom leading to cyclogenesis at the surface.

Pattern evolution through the period looks to be highlighted by
the northeastward ejecting surface cyclone along the southeast
coastline beneath the now southern stream h5 wave, while the
canadian high pressure moves across the appalachians into the
delmarva region. With that, cool dry surface air will remain in
place Thursday amidst nely flow while the coastal wave continues
tracking northeast. Moisture from said wave looks like it could
pose some threat potential for wintry ptypes on Friday morning
as the wave moves up the carolina coastline and diurnal morning
lows remain near freezing across the nc piedmont. That said,
there remains some model disagreement with regard to the westward
extent of said moisture as the GFS is a bit more progressive
with the surface wave, and thus keeping it's associated moisture
tied to the coastline while the ECMWF is a bit further inland.

Therefore given uncertainty, will keep any wintry ptypes out of
the fcst at this time by holding min temps at nlt 33 degrees among
any moisture. Beyond that the pattern begins to shift across the
southeast as the primary upper wave slides over the western atl
into Saturday setting up a brief window of warmer wly swly veered
flow, all ahead of another northern clipper and its associated cold
front which looks to arrive Saturday night into Sunday bringing
another round of potential nwfs to the high terrain.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
At kclt and elsewhere: gusty northwest winds continue to diminish
early this morning. Mainly light NW to N winds by day break continue
through the late morning. Winds turn S to SW for the afternoon.

Light S or light and variable wind expected during the evening.

Cirrus will increase and thicken through the period.

Outlook: increasing low level moisture could result in cig
restrictions and perhaps -ra on Tue tue night. Otherwise, dry cool
conditions should persist into late week.

Confidence table...

17-23z 23-05z 05-11z 11-12z
kclt high 87% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kavl high 94% high 100% high 100% high 100%
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% low 58%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kand high 94% high 100% high 100% high 83%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHDS1 - Strom Thurmond Dam, SC 67 mi80 min NNE 8 G 9.9 46°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 87 mi40 min Calm G 2.9 42°F 1019.3 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anderson, Anderson County Airport, SC6 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair34°F30°F85%1019.9 hPa
Clemson, Clemson-Oconee County Airport, SC13 mi66 minN 010.00 miFair39°F34°F82%1019.8 hPa
Pickens County Airport, SC22 mi65 minN 010.00 miFair30°F29°F99%1019 hPa

Wind History from AND (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10
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W8W11NW12NW10W10W11
G20
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SW12NW10W8W5W4W7N4N4CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW7SW8SW10SW9SW14CalmS9S8SW10S16
G23
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmNE4NE6NE3CalmCalmNE4E546CalmS6SW6S7S4CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.