Monday, September24, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Reed Creek, GA

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 7:25PM Monday September 24, 2018 1:22 AM EDT (05:22 UTC) Moonrise 6:35PMMoonset 5:44AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Reed Creek, GA
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location: 34.5, -82.83     debug

Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 240253
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
1053 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018

A wedge of moist high pressure will persist across the area into
Tuesday. A cold front will then move into the forecast area from the
west on Wednesday. This front will become stationary and increase
the chance for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week.

Near term through Monday
As of 1040 pm edt... Convection remains anchored along the eastern
escarpment of the northern mountains and foothills of nc this
evening. Enough rain has fallen to warrant a flash flood warning in
nw burke county. Similar trends exist in mcdowell county, but rain
rates haven't been as high there so far. Outside of that, the area
is quiet with the backdoor cold front just about to pass thru kgsp.

Stratus is also filling in southward behind the front. Overall, the
forecast is in good shape. No changes needed with this update.

Cams are in pretty good agreement (and have shown strong run-to-run
consistency) in allowing convection to continue developing into at
least the early part of the overnight near the nc blue ridge, where
weak but deep SE flow will focus upslope lift through much of the
period. Pops therefore peak at 60% across the northern foothills and
mountains by late evening, then gradually diminish through the
night. Steering currents from the S SW at 10-15 mph will limit the
localized heavy rainfall potential. However, some training of cells
will be possible along the eastern escarpment roughly parallel to
the flow. Otherwise, the leading edge of the back door front will
continue its S SW ooze (possibly picking up a little bit of speed)
to warrant 20-30 pops expanding to include much of the area. Min
temps will remain above climo, but slightly cooler than in previous

Weak cold air damming is expected to impact much of the forecast
area on Monday, with persistent stubborn low clouds expected to hold
max temps in the 75-80 range across much of the area (a little lower
across the mountains and north of i-40, a little higher across
southern piedmont areas). Weak instability and lack of a source of
lift other than terrain effects will limit the most notable pops
(40-50%) to the high terrain and adjacent foothills.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday
As of 300 pm edt Sunday: a muggy and mild night is in store under
the clouds on Mon night. The nern high pressure dome will be
centered over the canadian maritimes during the short term period,
but it's influence will still be felt here. Cool, moist air dammed
up against the mountains will allow the clouds to expand again and
cover most of the CWA by morning. Most of the area should be dry,
but will carry low chc pops to allow for a bit of drizzle or a very
light-brief shower overnight. The winds then veer enough to the east
to bring in some drier air to mix out much of the clouds by mid-aftn
tues. Some instability is generated where it gets sunny, but the
cape is thin, and we can't see putting in higher pops than what is
going for mon. Temps go back above normal for tues aftn where the
clouds break up. Some southern towns may get near 90f.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
As of 300 pm edt Sunday: a cold front will advance in from the
west northwest later Wed and Wed night. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms should result, but coverage does not look to be total.

Highest pops will be painted highest over the mountains. By sunrise
thurs, the front should be splitting the CWA in two. But, it will
also be dragging it's feet and probably lay out w-e, causing a delay
to the end of showers. The weak anti-cyclone behind the front just
about gives up as it runs into the upper ridging over the atlantic.

Heights do fall a little, but forcing generally weak overhead. Next
weekend does look dry rain-free for the most part with NW flow.

Dewpoints will be more comfortable in the m50s mtns to m60s s.

Aviation 03z Monday through Friday
At kclt and elsewhere: weak back door cold front continues to work
its way slowly S SW across the area and is about halfway between
kclt and kgsp as of 00z. This front is not triggering much
convection, except along the eastern escarpment, where upslope is
enhancing lift. Will keep vcsh at kavl and khky thru most of the
night, due to lingering showers in the sely upslope flow. The
piedmont sites look to only see isolated shra, so no mention at this
time. Winds will shift to NE behind the front (except SE at kavl), and
low CIGS are expected to develop from NE to SW thru daybreak Monday.

I went with the latest lamp for the cig trends. All sites are
expected to go to the lifr to MVFR range thru Monday morning. Some
improvement is expected Monday aftn, but confidence is low that much
of the cloud deck will mix out. A few showers possible across the
upstate and southern nc mountains early Monday morning and thru the

Outlook: weak cold air damming may support restrictions and
occasional showers light rain during the day Monday thru possibly
Tuesday. A cold front moving in from the west will then bring higher
chances of showers and storms Wednesday thru the end of the workweek.

Confidence table...

03-09z 09-15z 15-21z 21-00z
kclt med 77% high 92% med 64% high 84%
kgsp high 85% high 92% high 81% med 77%
kavl med 73% high 92% high 89% high 93%
khky med 69% med 69% med 74% high 96%
kgmu high 85% high 85% med 70% med 75%
kand high 100% med 78% high 81% med 76%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHDS1 - Strom Thurmond Dam, SC 67 mi43 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 73°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 87 mi63 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 76°F 1018.6 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anderson, Anderson County Airport, SC6 mi87 minE 610.00 miFair72°F64°F76%1018.7 hPa
Clemson, Clemson-Oconee County Airport, SC13 mi29 minN 010.00 miFair72°F64°F76%1019.6 hPa
Pickens County Airport, SC22 mi28 minESE 510.00 miFair66°F66°F100%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from AND (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3SW43Calm5SE5SE4SE6E6SE5E5E5E5E5E6E3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW5W7W4W5W3W5E3CalmSE5SE4E4E3SE4SE3CalmSW3
2 days agoS6SE3CalmCalmN3CalmCalmNE35----S3E5E6S5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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