Sunrise 6:41 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 8:45 AM

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FXUS62 KGSP 282123 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 523 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
The warming trend will continue through mid week as high pressure remains centered just off the Atlantic Coast. A weak cold front is expected to move through the area on Tuesday bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. A stronger front is expected to approach the Carolinas by late week and bring more showers and thunderstorms to the area.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 520 PM EDT Sunday: No major changes were needed this update as the forecast remains on track. Otherwise, heights will fall across the region during the near term...especially the latter half of the period, as upper ridge axis progresses to the East Coast...downstream of a trough axis advancing east of the Miss River on Monday. Low level flow trajectories off the Atlantic are resulting in widespread stratocu/cumulus across the area this afternoon...particularly across the southeast quadrant of the CWA
Cloud tops are bubbling starkly per visible imagery, and regional radars indicate some very weak returns in association with some of the taller clouds. However, IR imagery indicates cloud tops are jutting into the prominent subsidence inversion evident on 12Z Raob, and little additional vertical development is likely. Thus, while some locations could see brief sprinkles, chances for measurable precip are < 20%.

As deep layer ridging moves east of the area tonight into Monday, low level flow is forecast to become increasingly SW, which is expected to result in less cloud cover tonight and Monday. Decent radiational cooling conditions should follow tonight, and min temps are expected to cool to just slightly-above-climo. Elevated near-surface moisture could allow for some patchy fog development, particularly in the climatologically favorable locations in the mountain valleys. Sunnier conditions combined with increasing thickness values should allow max temps Monday to warm to around 5 degrees above normal.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 1:45 PM EDT Sunday: Upper ridge over the East Coast will still be in place as we move into the short term, with the trough that has been causing all the problems in the Southern Plains lifting and damping as it pushes east. Occluded front will approach the Appalachians at the start of the period, weakening on the southern end as it competes with the hefty ridge. Pops move into western zones before daybreak and ramp up during the afternoon hours, especially over the mountains, but the high elevations really tears the low level features of the front up. Very little deep layer shear to work with (not even 30kt collocated with the best instability)
and even the more unstable NAM keeps SBCAPE less than 1000 J/kg. So for now, general thunder looks good, but can't rule out that one or two may be stronger to marginally severe. Temps should be several degrees above normal on Tuesday with southerly flow still around the surface high off the Atlantic, even with the shortwave and front coming through.

The shortwave passes through quickly and ridging builds right back in on the back edge. Under full sun, temperature will climb a few degrees higher for highs on Wednesday, probably a good 10 or so degrees warmer than seasonal normals.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 2:15 PM EDT Sunday: Upper ridge is still in place as we move into the extended Wednesday night into Thursday, with another shortwave diving out of the Rockies into the Plains. Increasing disagreement in how this system is handled in the global models, but general picture shows another front pushing across the center of the country Thursday and towards our area Friday. Should see another uptick in temperatures on Thursday as the ridge strengthens, with pops moving back in on Friday. For now this front looks a little stronger than the early-week front, at least as far as instability goes, so this will have to be monitored in case this trend holds in future runs.

AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR stratocu cigs in the 045-060 range are expected to continue through the afternoon. This is expected to be esp true at KCLT, while the more western terminals may see clouds steadily decrease through the afternoon. There may be a brief period of sprinkles at some Piedmont terminals (incl KCLT), but chances for anything more than that are slim-to-none. Sky cover should diminish in all areas this evening, with mostly SKC conditions expected to develop by late evening/overnight. Some BR and even low stratus could develop in the mtn valleys toward daybreak Monday, but any restrictions are primarily expected to impact the valleys west of KAVL. SW winds are 10 kts are expected to become southerly while diminishing to 5 kts this evening, before returning to SW at around 10 kts late in the forecast period.

Outlook: Dry weather lingers through at least Monday afternoon. A frontal system could bring a round of showers and storms to the area on Tuesday, with more of a potential for isolated diurnal convection on Wed/Thu. The next front could bring better coverage of showers and storms Friday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

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