Sunday, June24, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Reed Creek, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 8:48PM Sunday June 24, 2018 12:28 PM EDT (16:28 UTC) Moonrise 4:43PMMoonset 2:59AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Reed Creek, GA
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location: 34.5, -82.83     debug

Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 241506
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
1106 am edt Sun jun 24 2018

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist through Monday as
the region remains in a warm and humid airmass. A weak cold front
will drop into the forecast area early next week, bringing more
seasonable temperatures Tuesday. A passing trough will increase
chances for showers and storms Wednesday, with hot weather returning
to end the week.

Near term through tonight
As of 11am edt Sunday: radar is currently clear, with some
scattered showers possible anytime over the mountains. Cams are
somewhat variable in amount and location of diurnal showers this
afternoon. As region is between upper waves, a reduction in shower
activity today is anticipated. Nonetheless, sufficient instability
and weak enough capping exists for some showers this afternoon
around and just after peak heating. Latest cams have tended to have
some enhanced precip over eastern parts of the cwa, including clt,
and have blended some of this into the forecast. Other aspects of
the forecast are similar to recent history, with less gusty winds
this afternoon than the previous 2 days.

Surface trough remains in place across the piedmont with nearly
zonal flow aloft, but with embedded waves as a series of mcss
traverses the southern states. For later today, the piedmont trough
remains in place, and another MCS developing across the plains
should work its way east toward the mid-south and toward the nc
mountains by the end of the period. The western atlantic ridge will
continue to build westward, slowly increasing thicknesses across the
south through the day and pushing the MCS flow a little farther
north. But even before the MCS approaches, convective instability
just from surface heating will allow for isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development this afternoon. Deep layer shear is minimal
except in closer proximity to the MCS (or leftover MCV or whatever
it might be at that time), so SPC outlook of marginal just barely
touching the nc tn border counties looks reasonable, with general
thunder elsewhere. The other story for this afternoon will be the
heat, with temperatures a good 4-5 degrees warmer than what we saw
yesterday. Afternoon mixing should help keep heat indices from
bumping up against advisory levels, but even so, upper 90s to lower
100s will still be quite uncomfortable and residents across the area
should keep heat safety precautions in mind.

The upper ridge over the southeast will continue to build tonight as
the longwave pattern amplifies to our north with an upper low
pushing off the rockies into the northern plains (and high-amplitude
ridging over the western great lakes with a deep trough in place
over eastern canada and new england). The upper low will play more
into the forecast in the short term, but the trough over the east
coast will deepen a little more overnight, pushing the piedmont
trough closer to the coast and swinging winds around to the nw.

Overnight lows will again be a few degrees above seasonal normals.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
As of 215 am Sunday: the forecast for the early part of the
work week unfortunately remains somewhat difficult to pin down,
so confidence is not any higher than it was on the previous
cycle. We begin the period Monday morning with a sharp ridge
over the mississippi valley and a deep trough over the northeast
states. A backdoor cold front most likely will have pushed through
most of the cwfa. The new development in the GFS nam is a weak
shortwave that will round the ridge and push across the southern
appalachians during the day. These models suggest a decayed mcs
will accompany the wave into our area, and that the model will
spawn new convection before it exits to the east. The new ec has
trended slightly stronger with its depiction of the wave, and
depicts widespread QPF for the area, though the available guidance
is too coarse to say if it is the same scenario indicated by the
american models. Regardless of which sort of solution verifies,
deep layer shear will be enough to result in some organization to
the storms that develop diurnally. The solutions from the hires
windows suggest a linear MCS will begin to take shape over our
eastern zones, perhaps southeast of i-85. Some damaging wind risk
will exist anywhere storms line up along a cold pool or outflow
boundary; SPC day 2 outlook features all of the cwfa in a marginal
risk. Torrential rain is also likely given pwat values peaking at
or above the 90th percentile of climo.

One key difference in the range of solutions is the temperature
impacts of a remnant cold pool spreading into portions of
the area Monday morning, which could furthermore drastically
limit instability and or leave a boundary that could focus later
initiation. The net result for the fcst is a blanket chance-range
pop albeit with the peak chance differing by location. There is a
lot of bust potential in the MAX temps. On top of the cold pool
uncertainty, there is question as to how far the post-frontal
air will have reached by afternoon. Most guidance suggests the
vast majority of our area will see maxes above climo, with a
sharp gradient possibly across the northern parts of our nc mtns
and piedmont.

Any remnant activity Monday night is expected to be generally
over the southern zones, nearer the possible new MCS and also
the frontal boundary. The eastward progress of the ridge will
bring high pressure down the east coast, turning winds easterly
to southeasterly by early Tuesday. The cooler air should be felt
across the cwfa, with MAX temps a little below normal. Of course the
areas north of i-40 stand to see the greatest effect. The easterly
flow warrants a small pop on its own, but much of the area still
will manage to destabilize diurnally, so at least chance pops are
fcst everywhere.

Precip chances taper off following peak heating Tuesday afternoon,
but there is a chance some activity with the next incoming system
will reach the nc mtns by daybreak wed. Hence pops ramp back up
there overnight.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
As of 320 am Sunday: an upper trough associated with low pressure
moving across the great lakes and northeast will enhance convective
potential for our area Wednesday into early Thursday. High pressure
will build over the east in the wake of that system. Heights
will rise as a broad ridge sets up by Friday. After MAX temps
near normal wed, temps warm back up and peak a few degrees above
normal thu-sat, with Friday looking to be the hottest day. Dewpoint
guidance currently suggests values in the piedmont will hover near
70 at midday each day, likely mixing out a few degrees during peak
heating. Even with this assumption, heat indices should easily
top 100 thu-fri, getting close to 105 in the warmest spots. We
will refine the forecast over the next few days, as more dewpoint
guidance becomes available for that period. Right now it looks
like a heat advisory is unlikely, but cannot be ruled out at least
for parts of the lower piedmont. Despite the ridge, some diurnally
driven convection is possible each day; pops look to be near climo
late in the period (chance mtns, slight chc piedmont).

Aviation 15z Sunday through Thursday
At kclt and elsewhere: predominantlyVFR conditions expected through
the period, except some hints at MVFR fog at kavl toward the end of
the period. Fairly light generally SW winds this morning will
increase this afternoon to 5-10kt, with some low-end gusts possible.

Another round ofVFR CU expected, and continued mention of prob30
tsra only at kavl at this time, but will need to monitor convective
trends through the day. As the front drops south tonight, expect a
wind shift to NW and eventually ne, with current timing at kclt
around 05z, though that could be adjusted up or down an hour or so.

Outlook: a slow-moving or stalled front will bring better chances
for convection starting Monday and continuing through the week.

Patchy morning fog and or low stratus may increase as well in
mountain valleys and or locations with wet ground.

Confidence table...

15-21z 21-03z 03-09z 09-12z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kavl high 100% high 100% high 100% high 91%
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHDS1 - Strom Thurmond Dam, SC 67 mi49 min WSW 4.1 G 13 89°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 87 mi69 min W 9.9 G 17 87°F 1014.9 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anderson, Anderson County Airport, SC6 mi93 minWSW 13 G 1810.00 miFair86°F72°F63%1015.2 hPa
Clemson, Clemson-Oconee County Airport, SC13 mi95 minW 11 G 1510.00 miFair85°F71°F63%1015.5 hPa
Pickens County Airport, SC22 mi34 minWSW 1110.00 miFair88°F74°F64%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from AND (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW11SW10
1 day agoSW12W16
2 days agoW7SW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.