Sunday, March24, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Reed Creek, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 7:46PM Sunday March 24, 2019 4:45 AM EDT (08:45 UTC) Moonrise 10:58PMMoonset 9:04AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Reed Creek, GA
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location: 34.5, -82.83     debug

Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 240724
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
324 am edt Sun mar 24 2019

Dry high pressure will continue across the region again today.

Moisture will increase tonight ahead of an approaching system that
will bring showers and a few thunderstorms on Monday. Cooler high
pressure will build in on Tuesday, with a gradual warming trend
expected through the end of the work week.

Near term through tonight
As of 315 am: the center of sfc high pressure will shift off the
east coast today, while a low pressure system enters the mid-ms
valley. So low-level flow will turn out of the sw, but it will take
some time for much increase in moisture today. Forecast soundings
show mixing up to about 825-800 mb by peak heating, which will tap
into some dry air. So have gone in and lowered dewpts significantly
from previous fcst and undercutting the model consensus. Also, temps
will easily warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s across the
piedmont, which combine to make for elevated fire wx concerns again
today (see fire wx section below). But overall, it should be a nice
day today with a light swly breeze and increasing high clouds.

Tonight, as an area of low pressure enters the oh valley, deepening
west-southwesterly flow will bring in an increase of mid and high
clouds overnight. Showers will be knocking on the door to the west,
with a slight chc of showers reaching the extreme western nc
mountains before daybreak Monday. Otherwise, the increased cloud
cover and low-level WAA will keep temps elevated overnight, with
lows about 8-10 deg above normal.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
As of 245 am edt Sunday: the short term begins Monday morning with a
cold front on our doorstep, pushed by a sharp trough rounding the
base of the longwave trough over hudson bay. Surface low over the
oh ms confluence will continue to work its way southeast through the
short term, dragging the front with it. Have noticed an increasing
trend in dynamics associated with the upper wave, with a little more
jet-level support with the 00z guidance. The downstream jet weakens
through the day, with a corresponding decrease in deep-layer shear
over our area (the upstream jet and stronger shear sill be over the
deep south), but decent dpva continues. As the shear weakens over
the western carolinas, there may still be enough support collocated
with the increasing surface instability to support a couple of
stronger storms. Flow aloft is fairly unidirectional, and low-end
sbcape (generally 500 j kg or lower) in the warm airmass ahead of
the front is pretty skinny. The new day 2 outlook from SPC does
place northeast ga and a sliver of the upstate in the marginal risk.

As for qpf, really at best expecting only about a half inch or so in
the typical mountain areas, with less than a quarter of an inch
across the piedmont.

Though the system will be moving south, strong high pressure over
the great lakes will be shifting east, and the upslope flow against
the blue ridge will shift the focus of the precip to the higher
elevations by Tuesday morning. Though overnight temperatures will
remain 5 or so degrees above normal, precip could briefly change
over to snow at the higher elevations. Pressure gradient will lead
to some breezy NE winds across the piedmont (especially the nc
piedmont) Monday night into Tuesday as the great lakes high begins
to dam down the eastern slopes of the appalachians.

A secondary shortwave diving down across the mid-south Monday night
into Tuesday morning will push across our area sometime Tuesday
afternoon, and even though this is now day 3, still seeing some
timing and moisture differences. The upslope flow over the blue
ridge from the damming combined with the additional lift from the
secondary shortwave could lead to some lingering precip especially
across the SW mountains into Tuesday evening, but will move out
overnight. Should see a 10-15 degree drop in high temperatures from
Monday into Tuesday, and a similar trend from Monday night to
Tuesday night.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
As of 315 am edt Sunday: a broad upper ridge building over the
center of the country will spread into the southeast in the wake of
the system from Monday-Tuesday. While the cool high pressure ridge
will remain in place at the surface, by Wednesday it technically
won't be damming anymore with the surface high off the SE canada
coast with no terrain-induced ageostrophic adjustment. Temperatures
Wednesday will remain well below normal though even with full or
nearly full sun. As the upper ridge axis shifts east through the
week, the surface high will moderate, and this with increasing
thicknesses will result in a warming trend through the end of the

Another system will come out of the rockies and force down the
amplitude of the upper ridge across the south, but then as the
shortwave dives into the plains the ridge will be pushed east. 00z
guidance is coming into better agreement on the timing of the next
front, with a surface low over the midwest by Saturday morning, but
definitely still differences in strength and details of mass fields
as the front approaches the appalachians. Have continued previous
trend of some low-end pops going into the weekend, but with the
slightly slower timing from previous guidance, kept pops generally
across the mountains.

Aviation 08z Sunday through Thursday
At kclt and elsewhere: dry andVFR thru the period. Center of high
pressure has settled over the area, resulting in calm or
light variable winds thru daybreak today. The high will begin to
shift east as an area of low pressure enters the central ms valley.

This will bring winds out of the SW by midday, with some low-end
gusts possible in the aftn, mainly across the upstate and at kclt. A
period of sct-bkn thin cirrus overnight, with more clearing during
the morning to early aftn. Then increasing lower cirrus altocu
starts moving in from the west late aftn thru the evening. Wind will
decrease around sunset, staying out of the sw.

Outlook: a moist low pressure system will bring precipitation and
potential flight restrictions mainly Monday and Tuesday. Dry wx
returns Wednesday.

Confidence table...

07-13z 13-19z 19-01z 01-06z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kavl high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHDS1 - Strom Thurmond Dam, SC 67 mi66 min S 1 G 1.9 44°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 87 mi26 min Calm G 1 47°F 1024.4 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anderson, Anderson County Airport, SC6 mi50 minN 010.00 miFair43°F35°F74%1024.5 hPa
Clemson, Clemson-Oconee County Airport, SC13 mi52 minNNW 410.00 miFair46°F39°F79%1024.9 hPa
Pickens County Airport, SC22 mi51 minN 010.00 miFair36°F35°F100%1024.7 hPa

Wind History from AND (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE833W5CalmW7W7SW6W5W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4E3Calm
1 day agoSW4W6S3SW33SW11W11SW12SW15SW12
2 days agoE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4--CalmSW9SW11SW7W12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.