Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Reed Creek, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 5:22PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 12:00 AM EST (05:00 UTC) Moonrise 11:27AMMoonset 10:14PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Reed Creek, GA
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location: 34.5, -82.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 120229
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
929 pm est Tue dec 11 2018

Synopsis
Dry high pressure will move east across northern florida on
Wednesday as a deep low pressure develops near texas. This low
pressure brings widespread rain to our region from Thursday night
into Saturday. Expect heavy rain on Friday. Low pressure moves away
on Sunday with a few days of dry weather expected.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 900 pm: guidance is oddly all over the place with overnight
lows, but with the majority of guidance warmer than our current
forecast. Have again updated hourly trends to slow the overall
cooling trend, but just do not feel comfortable with raising
overnight lows given the snowpack out there. Will refresh advisory
but overall no changes.

Otherwise, quiet conditions continue in the near term through early
Wednesday evening. High pressure aloft is expected to build into the
region tonight with mostly clear skies and light winds. This
combined with a healthy snowpack across much of nc will provide
ideal radiation cooling conditions with lows likely dropping well
into the 20s with upper 10s across colder mountain locations. Lows
in the mid 20s to around 30 elsewhere. Black ice is likely again
tonight for much of nc and portions of northern sc as snow ice that
melted today across the region will likely refreeze tonight. A
winter weather advisory will be issued shortly to cover the
potentially dangerous conditions. A shortwave passing well to the
will likely bring cirrus into the region at times tonight into
Wednesday with some breezy conditions across the highest mtn
elevations. Mostly sunny skies Wednesday will support temps once
again well into the 40s, which will continue to decrease snow depth
and coverage across areas where snow persists. Elsewhere, temps
likely reach the upper 40s to low 50s.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday
As of 211 pm Tuesday: the upper pattern will gradually amplify
Wednesday night and Thursday as a deep upper low forms over the
srn plains, resulting in downstream ridging over the western
carolinas. This amplification should prevent a weak sfc boundary
from dropping down across the NRN mountains, thus the fcst was
kept dry in that region in opposition to the NAM which develops
some upslope precip late Wednesday night. Sfc high pressure will
move off the southeast coast and weaken on Thursday, and warm
advection should commence late in the day, but it appears that
moisture will not return before the end of the daytime period, so
the fcst for Thursday will be kept dry. Low temps early Thursday
will support another concern for black ice mainly over the nc nrn
mtns NRN foothills NW piedmont. High temps on Thursday should inch
closer to normal.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
As of 230 pm est Tuesday: a strong large-scale upper low and
attendant sfc cyclone will approach the region Thu night and
bring a good amt of gom atl moisture to the fcst area during the day
fri into sat. In advance of this system... Stg hipres will build
across the NE CONUS and ridge down the east coast. This will
set the stage for a possible high rainfall event over a relatively
short period of time. There is some uncertainty with the amt of
precip to expect... As the ECMWF is showing abt half the QPF as the
latest GFS due to it S later isent lift across the sfc wedge Fri and
transition east of better lift on sat. The cmc soln is also quite
different and lower QPF than the GFS as it shows a dry slot pushing
in by Fri afternoon. So... Have given some weight to the GEFS means
along with the op ECMWF as it has performed the best with QPF over
the fa during the 7 days.

All this to say the storm total QPF amts have been adj down a
bit... But only by a couple tenths or so over most areas. This amt or
rainfall combined with the melted snowpack and or existing snow
cover over the higher terrain could combine and create some hydro
issues. Hard to detail exactly where right now... But one favored
risk area would be across the SRN br where a maxima of precip is
expected over areas which received arnd a foot of snow this past
weekend. Also... The models are highlighting the wedge axis for
another high QPF zone generally across the fhills and piedmont. This
system will be one to watch and keep abreast thru the week... But for
now it looks like it could generate enhanced flooding concerns to
some degree.

The large scale system moves off to the northeast by Sat evening and
some wrap around -snsh are probable across the WRN nc mtns into sun.

These showers look to dry up fairly quickly Sun as a canadian sfc
high pushes in from the northwest. So... No sigfnt accum is expected
for now. The sfc high will engulf the region thru the end of the
period and make for dry conds. MAX temps will be the lowest Fri as
the wet wedge sets up over the area with highs ranging in the 40s
most locales except the far SRN zones where l50s are possible. Sat
will be tricky temp-wise as the wedge will likely hold on... Yet deep
moisture could wane early on. Maxes Sun thru the rest of the period
will reach normal levels as high levels of insol persists.

Aviation 03z Wednesday through Sunday
At kclt and elsewhere: generallyVFR through the period with
high pressure in place. Light W to wsw winds this evening will trend
vrb overnight but SW on Wednesday. Cannot rule out some brief MVFR
fog especially for kclt and khky. Sct to bkn cirrus will begin to
push into the region from the west towards the end of the taf
period.

Outlook: quiet conditions will remain in place into Thursday. A
frontal system will bring periods of moderate to heavy rain to area
terminals by Friday with associated restrictions developing late
Thursday and continuing into Friday.

Confidence table...

02-08z 08-14z 14-20z 20-00z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kavl high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHDS1 - Strom Thurmond Dam, SC 67 mi21 min SSW 1.9 G 4.1 39°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 87 mi41 min W 8.9 G 11 45°F 1021.7 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anderson, Anderson County Airport, SC6 mi65 minSW 510.00 miFair37°F26°F65%1022.6 hPa
Clemson, Clemson-Oconee County Airport, SC13 mi67 minWSW 910.00 miFair38°F23°F55%1022.4 hPa
Pickens County Airport, SC22 mi66 minN 010.00 miFair31°F27°F87%1021.3 hPa

Wind History from AND (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3NW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmNE3N4Calm3SW65W7W6SW5SW4SW6SW5SW5SW3SW5
1 day agoNE3CalmNW3CalmN3CalmN3N5N4NE7NE11NE11NE8NE8NE8NE8NE4CalmNE9N4N34N5NW5
2 days agoNE17
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.