Monday, November12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Emerald Isle, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 5:05PM Monday November 12, 2018 8:29 PM EST (01:29 UTC) Moonrise 11:02AMMoonset 9:18PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 640 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
.gale warning in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..SE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming S 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 40 kt late this evening and overnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft early, building to 7 to 10 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, increasing to very rough late. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms this evening, then showers with a chance of tstms after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 25 to 35 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft, subsiding to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. NEar shore, seas 5 to 8 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough, diminishing to choppy in the afternoon. Showers with a chance of tstms in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..N winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft, except 3 to 5 ft near shore. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough after midnight. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, except 3 to 5 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A chance of rain, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..NE winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough, diminishing to rough after midnight. Rain likely.
Thu..E winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming se 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy in the afternoon. Rain.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy after midnight. Showers likely.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Emerald Isle, NC
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location: 34.51, -77     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 130007
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
707 pm est Mon nov 12 2018

Synopsis
A low pressure system will cross the area tonight. A cold front
will then move through late Tuesday followed by high pressure
Wednesday. Another area of low pressure will affect the area
Thursday into Friday. High pressure will ridge into the region
this weekend.

Near term tonight
As of 7 pm Monday... Latest sfc analysis shows warm front right
along the nc coast with weak low pressure slowly strengthening
on the front over the SE coast. Sfc low will continue to
strengthen and lift NE through eastern nc tonight and early tue
morning. Latest radar imagery shows the main area of light rain
pushing just west and north of the area early this evening.

Could see a brief lull of a few hours before it fills back in.

Late tonight, the warm front will lift north across the area,
while the sfc low moves through after midnight. Strong low level
shear will be present, with low level S SE winds becoming SW at
850 mb at 50+ knots, and MUCAPE values reaching as high as 1500
j kg along the the coast. The combination of instability, shear
and low level helicity is enough to support a few strong to
severe thunderstorms capable of producing locally damaging winds
and or an isolated tornado. SPC continues to outlook the area
in slight to marginal risks of severe weather, with the best
potential along the coast (east of hwy 17). Another concern will
be for the potential for heavy rainfall with 1-2 inches,
locally up to 3 inches possible. This could produce some minor
flooding of low- lying areas. Low temps will be realized early
this evening, increasing overnight with low level warm air
advection.

Short term Tuesday
As of 300 pm Monday... The low pressure system will lift ne
tomorrow, while the cold front moves through late morning.

Models continue to show rain during the morning, and then
redeveloping again as the secondary cold front pushes through.

Temperatures will be warm in the morning with highs in the low
60s inland to the low 70s along the coast, then gradually
decreasing during the day.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
As of 3 pm mon... Active weather will continue into the second half
of the week. Then, drier and cooler air will move in Friday and
remain into the weekend.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... Some uncertainty remains with the
timing of the cold frontal passage late Tuesday, but it is expected
to make it through the area and offshore by the late night hours.

There is significant disagreement amongst global models with regard
to the amount of WAA moisture advection that will occur ahead of the
front, with some models, including the GFS and nam, trending much
drier. Have opted to trim pops late Tuesday to account for the
uncertainty, through high end chance to low end likely pops remain
Tuesday evening. High pressure will build into the area behind the
front, resulting in a mainly dry and cool day Wednesday. Gusty winds
(especially for coastal areas) will ensue Wednesday
afternoon evening as low pressure developing across the deep south
works with high pressure across the northeast to tighten the
gradient locally.

Thursday... The afore mentioned low will travel up the east coast
Thursday, brining another soggy and breezy day. There remains some
uncertainty in the timing track of the low, but confidence has
increasing in the impacts locally, with rainfall moving in early
Thursday, and Thursday Thursday night being very wet. At least
minor, localized flooding issues are possible given the already wet
soils and the potential for a couple of additional inches of
rainfall.

Friday through Sunday... As low pressure departs the area, it will
drag a cold front off the coast Friday morning, with cooler high
pressure building in behind it. High pressure will continue to ridge
into the area this weekend, however cooler conditions are expected.

High temps Friday will reach the low to upper 60s, with mostly 50s
likely for the weekend. Lows will dip into the 30s inland, but look
to remain above freezing, while remaining in the low to mid 40s
along the coast.

Aviation 23z Monday through Saturday
Short term through Tuesday ...

as of 7 pm Monday... Mixed bag of lifr andVFR conditions across
the TAF sites this evening. Widespread sub-vfr expected through
the period, likely bouncing between categories through 06z.

Light rain becomes heavier and more widespread late tonight and
early Tuesday morning. A line of more organized showers and
isolated thunderstorms is expected to move through the sites
between 07-12z. Strong low level wind shear likely to develop
tonight as 850 mb jet of 50+ knots develops over the area. Pred
ifr conditions likely to develop late tonight and continue into
Tuesday. Ceilings likely to lift to MVFR Tuesday afternoon, but
confidence is low at this time.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday ...

as of 4 pm mon... The threat for ceiling and visibility
restrictions will persist into Tuesday night as a cold front
works across the area.VFR conditions will return Wednesday, but
be short-lived as ifr conditions are likely as low pressure
impacts the area late Wednesday through Thursday night.VFR
conditions return Friday.

Marine
Short term through Tuesday ...

as of 7 pm mon... Strong winds and dangerous seas developing
tonight and continuing into Tuesday. Latest buoy observations
show E SE winds 15-25 kt with seas 4-7 ft. SE winds this
evening, then becoming southerly and increasing to 25-35 kt in
response to developing low, which should cross the carolinas
late tonight into early Tuesday. Winds peak early Tue morning.

Gale warnings remain in effect for the coastal waters and
pamlico sound, with seas building to as high as 10 feet. Sca
continues for the remaining waters with frequent gusts above 25
knots likely. Winds will slowly diminish through the day
Tuesday, as seas will response as well, but remain above 6 ft.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday ...

as of 300 pm mon... Winds will remain below SCA criteria, though
6 ft seas may persist across the coastal waters, Tuesday
evening. Winds and seas will increase Wednesday ahead of an
approaching low and remain elevated, with very dangerous boat
conditions expected as low pressure passes near the waters
through at least Thursday night. Winds will approach gale over
the coastal waters Wednesday afternoon and evening, with gusts
near or over 30 kt possible through late Thursday. Conditions
should begin to improve Friday.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 9 am est Tuesday for amz130-131-136-
137.

Gale warning until 1 pm est Tuesday for amz135-152-154-156-158.

Gale warning until 1 pm est Tuesday for amz150.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Cqd bm
short term... Bm
long term... Sgk cb
aviation... Cqd bm cb
marine... Cqd bm cb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41159 21 mi30 min 75°F8 ft
41064 21 mi82 min SSE 23 G 31 73°F 75°F1020.3 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 23 mi42 min SE 15 G 19 67°F 62°F1021.9 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 26 mi90 min ESE 22 G 25 1022.4 hPa (-1.0)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 41 mi82 min SSE 23 G 33 73°F 74°F1019.9 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi42 min SE 19 G 21 71°F 67°F1019.9 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 46 mi30 min 67°F7 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi82 min SSE 19 G 25 71°F 67°F1020.1 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC13 mi93 minSE 16 G 2210.00 miPartly Cloudy69°F57°F68%1021.9 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC24 mi92 minSE 9 G 1810.00 miA Few Clouds68°F55°F63%1022.1 hPa

Wind History from NJM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N4N3N6NE65NE5N5NE4N4NE6NE9NE11NE9NE12NE12E12E9NE9NE7NE10SE14SE16
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1 day agoN6N8N9N9N8N8N8N11
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N10NE8N6NE9N6N4N3N5
2 days agoW4W5W6W3W4W6W5N12NW8
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N7NW5N4N6

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
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Mon -- 04:04 AM EST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:30 AM EST     2.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:02 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:01 PM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:18 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:55 PM EST     2.02 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.30.80.50.30.40.81.31.82.22.42.42.21.81.30.90.50.40.50.81.21.61.92

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:06 AM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:33 AM EST     3.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:03 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:03 PM EST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:06 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:19 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:58 PM EST     2.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.71.10.60.40.511.62.433.33.332.41.81.10.60.40.611.62.22.62.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.