Friday, February15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Emerald Isle, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 5:51PM Friday February 15, 2019 11:03 PM EST (04:03 UTC) Moonrise 1:36PMMoonset 3:13AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 955 Pm Est Fri Feb 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night...
Overnight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers late this evening, then showers likely.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. Showers likely.
Sat night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the evening. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Showers likely.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy after midnight. A chance of showers.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop. Showers likely.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop. A chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Emerald Isle, NC
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location: 34.51, -77     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 160245
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
945 pm est Fri feb 15 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will approach from the west tonight and cross
eastern nc on Saturday. The front will linger just south of the
region through the middle of next week, bringing unsettled
weather to the area.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
As of 945 pm Friday... Mild and increasingly moist SW flow will
continue across eastern nc tonight between atlantic high
pressure and a cold front advancing from the west. Clouds will
be lowering while precip chances ramp up after midnight in
response to weak shortwaves embedded in zonal flow aloft moving
through nc along with increasing moisture convergence ahead of
the front. Patchy mostly light rain is expected to develop
around 4z with the light rain becoming more widespread after 9z
late tonight. Chance pops increasing to categorical for the
coastal plain along and west of hwy 17 overnight, with slight
chance increasing to likely pops east. QPF will range from near
one quarter of an inch west to one tenth east. Forecast
soundings indicate very little instability with weak nearly
unidirectional wsw shear, thus do not expect thunderstorms. Sw
winds will keep dew points in the 40s 50s with an overall mild
night, temps ranging from near 50 deep inland to mid 50s for the
southern coast.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday
As of 945 pm Friday... The surface cold front will gradually
push through the CWA Saturday with weak low pressure developing
along the boundary leading to likely to categorical pops through
Saturday afternoon. The low is expected to be offshore by the
afternoon, with the cold front pushed south into sc, then
stalling to our south. Continued modest mid level support with
weak shortwave energy in wsw zonal flow aloft. Clouds and precip
will prevent much insolation, and with developing northerly
post frontal flow most high temps will occur early in the day
with maxes in the low 50s north to upper 50s south.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
As of 3 pm Friday... Unsettled weather expected through the
period, as numerous frontal systems and shortwaves impact the
region.

Saturday night through Monday... High pressure will wedge in
from the north Sat night into early Sun as front and low
pressure push off the coast, allowing for drier and cooler air
to filter into the area. Precip should taper off quickly from
west to east Sat evening night. Overnight lows dropping into
the 30s inland and upper 30s to low 40s along the beaches sat
night.A significant positively-tilted upper level trough will
dig into the SW us, allowing for SW flow aloft and increased
moisture over the southeast and mid-atlantic regions through
early next week. Rain chances will be increasing Sunday
afternoon, with best chances Sun night through mid-day Monday,
as wave of low pressure develops along the lingering front
across the area combined with shortwave energy. Will continue
likely pops Sun night, tapering off Mon afternoon evening.

Expect highs in the in the 50s Sunday and into the mid 50s to
lower 60s Monday.

Tuesday through Friday... Still quite a bit of uncertainty mid to
late week, but still looks unsettled with more clouds rain
chances than Sun dry wx. An area of low pressure is forecast to
strengthen over the gulf states Tue night, lifting into the
tn oh valley Wed while secondary low develops along the nc
coast. High chance to likely pops will continue through Friday,
as fronts and areas of low pressure linger over the area,
combined with shortwave energy. The latest ECMWF pushes the
front through the area Thu night into early Friday, drying
everything out... While the GFS keeps the boundary stalled near
the area and deep moisture in place. Temps look mild with highs
in the 50s to 60s and overnight lows in the 40s and 50s.

Aviation 03z Saturday through Wednesday
Short term through Saturday ...

as of 610 pm Friday...VFR conditions will prevail across
eastern nc until around midnight. After 06z ceilings begin to
lower to MVFR levels due to increased moisture-rich southerly
flow ahead of a advancing cold front with light showers
developing then becoming more widespread after 9z. From 12-18z
sat widespread moderate to briefly heavy showers are expected
producing a period of ifr conditions. The cold front will move
through the TAF sites Saturday morning, shifting winds northerly
behind the front with heaviest precip shifting east of the taf
sites around 18z though ifr ceilings should linger into sat
evening.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday ...

as of 3 pm Friday... Unsettled weather expected through the
period as frontal systems and shortwaves impact the region.

Scattered to numerous showers expected with periods of sub-vfr
through late week.

Marine
Short term through Saturday ...

as of 945 pm Friday... Sca's have been issued for the coastal
waters and sounds for Sat into Sunday morning. S SW winds 10-20
kt with gusts to 20 kt will continue across the waters for most
of tonight. Seas remain wind-wave dominant 2-4 ft across the
coastal waters. Later tonight ahead of the cold front, winds
will briefly shift to the west, and then around to the north as
the front crosses the coastal waters Saturday morning into early
sat afternoon. The surge behind the front will yield winds of
15-25 kts through Saturday beginning over the northern waters
sat morning and spreading to the southern waters Sat late
afternoon. Seas will remain 2-4 ft through this evening,
building to 3-5 ft late tonight and 4-7 ft Saturday.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday ...

as of 3 pm fri... SCA conditions will continue across most of the
waters Sat evening with gusty nne winds 15-25 kt and seas 4-7
ft continue behind the front. Winds and seas will be diminishing
sun with winds becoming 10 kt or less by Sun afternoon and seas
subsiding to 2-4 ft. Wnw winds 10-15 kt Monday with seas 2-4
ft, becoming NE 15-20 kt Monday night into Tuesday. Variable
winds 10-20 kt Wed as front lingers over the waters and area of
low pressure develops along the coast. A period of sca
conditions will be possible Mon night through wed.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 9 am Saturday to 4 am est Sunday for
amz135.

Small craft advisory from 7 am to 10 pm est Saturday for
amz130-131.

Small craft advisory from 11 am Saturday to 10 am est Sunday
for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm Saturday to 4 am est Sunday for
amz156-158.

Small craft advisory from 7 am Saturday to 4 am est Sunday for
amz150.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Dag jme
short term... Dag
long term... Cqd bm
aviation... Dag jme cqd
marine... Dag jme cqd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 21 mi56 min W 16 G 21 63°F 62°F1010.2 hPa
41159 21 mi34 min 62°F4 ft
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 23 mi34 min SW 4.1 G 8 58°F 56°F1011.1 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 26 mi64 min SW 8.9 G 11 1010.8 hPa (+0.0)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 41 mi56 min W 14 G 18 60°F 58°F1011.2 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi56 min WSW 12 G 16 56°F 55°F1010.8 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 46 mi34 min 54°F2 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi34 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 58°F 54°F1011.3 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC13 mi67 minWSW 710.00 miFair58°F48°F70%1010.8 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC24 mi66 minWSW 810.00 miFair58°F48°F70%1010.6 hPa

Wind History from NJM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW10SW6SW7SW8SW10SW12SW12SW11SW16
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1 day agoW4W5W5W4CalmW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN6SE8SE7SE7S7SE6SE5SE6SE4SE3SE4CalmSE3
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Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:13 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:17 AM EST     2.28 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:51 AM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:43 PM EST     1.84 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:51 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:46 PM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.72.12.32.21.91.510.50.20.10.30.61.11.51.81.81.61.20.70.3-0.1-0.20

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:14 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:20 AM EST     3.07 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:53 AM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:46 PM EST     2.48 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:52 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:48 PM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.52.22.83.132.621.30.70.20.10.30.81.422.42.52.21.710.4-0-0.20.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.