Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Emerald Isle, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 5:01PM Saturday November 18, 2017 2:33 PM EST (19:33 UTC) Moonrise 6:39AMMoonset 5:33PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1226 Pm Est Sat Nov 18 2017
.gale warning in effect from 7 pm est this evening through Sunday afternoon...
This afternoon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Tonight..SW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft after midnight. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough, diminishing to rough in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon.
Mon night..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop. A chance of showers.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Emerald Isle, NC
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location: 34.51, -77     debug

Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 181757
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1257 pm est Sat nov 18 2017

High pressure will gradually move offshore this afternoon. A
strong cold front will move through the area early Sunday. High
pressure will be over the area Monday into Tuesday. A cold front
will cross the area Tuesday night followed by high pressure for
mid to late next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1255 pm Saturday... No big changes to the current forecast
with high clouds continuing to spill into the region from the
northwest as a strong cold front approaches. Temperatures have
warmed well into the 60s and a few spots will possibly reach
70 degrees by later in the day with strong WAA ahead of front.

S SW winds are starting to ramp up now and will increase through
the afternoon. Wind advisories remain in effect along the coast
from carteret county north through Sunday.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday
As of 300 am Saturday... Models remain consistent with positively
tilted short wave and associated cold front moving into area
late tonight and near coast by 7 am Sunday. With main dynamics
moving north of area, models continue to indicate main
widespread precip over NW third of area and increased pops to
likely there with solid chance pops rest of area. Bulk shear of
50-60 kt indicated but negligible CAPE instability, this
expecting only showers but any heavier activity could produce
gusty winds. Stronger gradient winds of 25-35 mph support wind
advisory for outer banks and eastern carteret county. Min temps
from mid 50s inland to near 60 coast.

Long term Sunday through Friday
As of 230 am sat... A cold front will move off the coast Sunday
morning. High pressure then builds in Monday and Tuesday.

Another front will move off the coast Wednesday morning. Low
pressure will pass by to the southeast thanksgiving day into

Sunday... The cold front is expected to cross eastern nc Sunday
morning, with showers quickly ending from west to east before
noon. Precipitation amounts will be light, mainly 0.10" or less
in most areas. Low temps Sunday morning will be mild, in the
50s, as we will still be receiving strong warm air advection.

Highs on Sunday will be cooler, with temps only rising 5-6
degrees from the morning lows behind the cold front.

Monday and Tuesday... High pressure will build in from the west
Monday and then move off the coast on Tuesday. Cold air aloft
will lead to much below normal highs on Monday, but then warmer
southerly flow on Tuesday will lead to milder highs. Highs
Monday will be in the mid 50s, and on Tuesday highs will reach
60-65. Low temps will be in the lower to mid 30s inland both
Monday and Tuesday mornings, with mid to upper 30s further east,
and low to mid 40s along the coast.

Wednesday thru Friday... Another fast-moving front will move off
the coast Wednesday morning. After that, an offshore trough
will develop and move over the gulf stream on Wednesday, and
will bring showers to eastern nc. Have slight chance pops west
of highway 17 and chance east. Low pressure will pass by to the
southeast Thursday and Friday. GFS is much stronger with the
low, while the ECMWF is much weaker. Consensus is favoring the
ecmwf solution at this time. Will carry mostly slight chance
pops Thursday and Friday.

High temps will be in the mid 60s Wednesday, and then the mid
50s Thursday and 55-60 Friday. Low temps Wed will range from
the mid 40s inland to the upper 40s to low 50s along the coast.

Lows Thursday will be around 40 on the coastal plain to 45-50
south coast and obx. Lows Friday morning will be in the mid to
upper 30s coastal plain to mid upper 40s south coast and obx.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
Short term through 12z Sunday ...

as of 1245 pm Saturday... High confidence thatVFR conditions
will dominate most of the period, except when the cold front
passes through the area between 08-12z. High pressure slid off
the coast this morning with a cold front approaching the region.

Expect mid to high clouds to stream through the area this
afternoon with sct to bkn scu to develop and gusty SW winds up
to 20 kt. Models are showing possible MVFR ceiling conditions
after midnight as the cold front moves through the TAF sites
with gusty winds up to 30 knots and a chance of low level wind
shear 35-40 kt to occur. After the frontal passage, ceiling
conditions will return back toVFR with NW gusty winds.

Long term Sun thru wed
as of 230 am sat... The cold front will move quickly off the
coast Sunday morning, with showers ending by mid-morning. After
that,VFR conditions forecast through the rest of the period as
high pressure builds back over the area.

Short term through tonight ...

as of 1255 pm Saturday... Winds really starting to ramp up inland
at midday and should increase along the sounds first, then
coastal waters over the next few hours. No changes to the gale
warnings or small craft advisories at this time. Seas of 2-3
feet currently will build to 8-13 feet by tonight as SW W winds
increase to 25-35 knots with gusts as high as 40-45 knots
possible later tonight ahead of a strong cold front.

Long term Sun thru wed
as of 230 am sat... As the cold front crosses the waters Sunday
morning, winds will weaken slightly and shift to NW 25-30 kts.

Gales will end by late Sunday morning, with winds becoming
20-25 kts by late afternoon. Winds on Monday morning will be nnw
15-20 kts, subsiding to 10-15 kts in the afternoon. Winds
Tuesday will be light and variable before becoming sse 5-10 kts.

Another front will cross the waters Wednesday morning, with
winds becoming north 10-15 knots.

Seas will be 8-13 ft Sunday morning, subsiding to 6-9 ft Sunday
afternoon. Seas will remain elevated through Sunday evening
north of ocracoke, then subside to 3-5 ft throughout Monday,
then 2-4 ft Tuesday and Wednesday.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Wind advisory from 11 pm this evening to 10 am est Sunday for

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm est Sunday
for amz130-131-136-137.

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm est Sunday for

Synopsis... Jbm
near term... Ctc
short term... Jbm
long term... Hsa
aviation... Hsa bm
marine... Ctc jbm hsa

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41159 21 mi33 min 70°F3 ft
41064 21 mi85 min S 9.7 G 14 68°F 70°F1014.7 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 26 mi33 min SSW 11 G 13 66°F 1013.6 hPa (-4.2)57°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 41 mi85 min SSW 9.7 G 12 67°F 67°F1014.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 46 mi34 min 64°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi145 min SSW 7.8 G 12 65°F 64°F1016.1 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC13 mi36 minSSW 13 G 2910.00 miFair67°F55°F68%1013.4 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC24 mi35 minS 1210.00 miA Few Clouds66°F57°F75%1013.1 hPa

Wind History from NJM (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNE5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--------------CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S7S7S10SW11SW13
1 day agoNW76CalmNW3CalmCalmCalm--------------N7N6N4N5N9NE8
2 days agoN5N8N3N4NW3N4N5N5N5N5NW5N5N6NW6N6NW3N6NW4NW6NW12

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
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Sat -- 12:45 AM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:39 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:09 AM EST     2.76 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:36 PM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:33 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:26 PM EST     2.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
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Sat -- 03:14 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:16 AM EST     1.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:05 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:31 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:33 PM EST     1.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.