Saturday, June23, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Emerald Isle, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 8:26PM Saturday June 23, 2018 2:14 PM EDT (18:14 UTC) Moonrise 3:21PMMoonset 2:00AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1047 Am Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm edt this evening through Monday morning...
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 25 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy late. A slight chance of showers and tstms early this afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the morning.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SE winds around 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Emerald Isle, NC
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location: 34.51, -77     debug

Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 231708
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
108 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018

An inland trough offshore high pattern will prevail over the
area today. A cold front will approach from the northwest
Sunday and move through Monday into Monday night. High pressure
will build into the area Tuesday and gradually move offshore

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1055 am Saturday... No significant changes with update.

Atmosphere similar to on Friday with modified soundings
indicating capes near 3500 but do have 30-40 kt of shear and
some shortwave energy moving across this afternoon. Thus
expecting more coverage of convective activity late afternoon
with some potential for downburst winds. Temps look on track for
low to mid 90s.

Previous discussion
as of 650 am Saturday... Removed rain chances for the next few
hours, then introducing a slight chance by late morning to
account for developing sea breeze and local mesoscale
boundaries. Greatest development will be after 18z, peaking 21z
to 0z. Looking for a repeat of yesterday with temperatures and
humidity but a better chance for more organized storms with
severe weather potential. Highs again this afternoon will be in
the lower to middle 90s, with heat indices of 100 to 105. Will
continue to mention the higher heat indices in the hwo. A few
spots will touch 105, but not widespread enough to issue a heat

Spc has upgraded our area to a marginal risk for severe weather
with the overnight update. Unlike the past few days wind
profiles shower a greater threat for severe weather with 0-6 km
bulk shears of up to 30 kts on both the NAM and gfs, with 0-1 km
bulk shears of 20 kts. Our likely trigger today will be the sea
breeze or a lee side trof moving through this afternoon. This
will be aided by an upper level short wave now across central
tennessee which will move through our northern forecast area
between 18z and 21z. Lapse rates up through 700 mb are steep,
and remain decent all the way up through 500 mb. With an
inverted v sounding and the shear profiles mentioned above,
damaging winds will be the main threat. The shear will also
support the potential for large hail as well and may allow some
of the storms to organize into shorter line segments that have
some longevity.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday
As of 345 am Saturday... Convection dies down early tonight and
with enough of a gradient through the night fog is not expected,
despite the possibility of a wet ground. Lows remain mild or in
the 70s.

Long term Sunday through Friday
As of 420 am Saturday... Hot and humid SW flow is expected to
continue into Monday ahead of a moderately strong cold front
which is forecast to move into eastern nc Monday, pushing south
of the region Monday night. High pressure with slightly cooler
and less humid conditions will then build into the area from the
north Tuesday and Wed then continue to influence the weather
while moving offshore Thursday into next weekend with temps near
normal. Broad troughing aloft will keep the threat for
convection in the forecast Sunday. The cold front will then
bring another chance for precipitation from Sunday night into
Monday evening, then much lower but not non zero chances for
mainly isolated diurnally driven showers and storms are expected
for Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure builds into the area
and inhibits development. The period from Thursday into next
weekend will feature mainly diurnally driven convection as
southerly flow returns heat and humidity back into the area.

Sunday through Monday... Unsettled muggy weather is expected
during this period. Broad upper troughing is expected to persist
over the area Sunday aiding lift of hot humid airmass which
will be in place across the carolinas leading to scattered
showers and thunderstorms. The cold front will continue the
threat for showers and storms Mon mon evening.

Tue and wed... The front is forecast to push south of the region
tue as high pressure builds over the area from the north into
wed. As is typical for this time of year, there will be enough
residual moisture and instability behind the front to warrant
low chance pops each day for a few mainly diurnally driven
showers or storms. Temps will be closer to normal values in the
low to mid 80s.

Thursday into next weekend... The high is forecast to continue to
influence the weather over the area as it moves offshore and
produces a southerly flow of warmer and more humid air across
eastern nc. This will lead to scattered diurnally driven showers
and storms each day. High temps will warm into the lower 90s.

Aviation 17z Saturday through Wednesday
Short term through 18z ...

as of 108 pm Saturday...VFR through the TAF period will be the
general rule. Showers and thunderstorms expected to develop
ahead of some shortwave energy moving across our region this
afternoon with some temporary restrictions to sub-vfr possible.

Storms should diminish after dark.VFR beyond that through
tonight with winds staying high enough to prevent any fog

Long term Sunday through Wednesday ...

as of 420 am Saturday...VFR conditions are expected through
most of the long term, with the exception of occasional subVFR
conditions possible Sunday and Monday in scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Only isolated afternoon early evening showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tue and Wed as high pressure builds
over the area.

Short term through tonight ...

as of 1100 am Saturday... No changes with update.

Previous discussion
as of 650 am Saturday... Seas 3 to 4 feet and southwest winds 15
to 20 continue. Winds will gradually increase a few knots today
as a pressure gradient strengthens over the waters. Small craft
advisories look good, with the strongest winds over the pamlico
sound and central waters. Seas of 3 to 4 feet now will increase
to 4 to 5 feet this afternoon and tonight, with a few 6 footers
outer central waters. Winds remain out of the southwest 15 to
20 plus, with gusts to 25 knots.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday ...

as of 420 am Saturday... Small craft advisory conditions will
continue across the waters through Sunday night with prefrontal
sw flow of 20-25 kt. Winds Monday shift to NE and diminish to 10
to 15 kt behind the front continuing into Tue as high pressure
builds over the waters from the north. The flow is forecast to
veer to SE 10-15 kt wed. Seas build to 4 to 7 ft into Sun night,
subsiding to 3 to 5 ft Mon and 2 to 4 ft Tue and wed.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Monday for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Monday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 8 am edt Monday
for amz156-158.

Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 11 pm edt
Sunday for amz150.

Synopsis... Eh
near term... Jbm eh
short term... Eh
long term... Jme
aviation... Jme eh ms
marine... Jme jbm eh

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41159 21 mi44 min 82°F4 ft
41064 21 mi66 min SW 12 G 16 83°F 82°F1013.6 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 26 mi74 min SW 12 G 19 1013.2 hPa (+0.3)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 41 mi66 min SW 14 G 21 83°F 82°F1013.5 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 46 mi44 min 80°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi66 min S 14 G 18 81°F 81°F1012.3 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC13 mi17 minSSW 1710.00 miFair0°F0°F%1013 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC24 mi76 minSW 1510.00 miFair86°F79°F80%1012.8 hPa

Wind History from NJM (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS12SW13SW14SW18S18
1 day agoSW14SW12SW11SW12SW11SW10SW6SW11SW13NE10NE6E4SE5SE7SE6SE4S4W6W7SW8SW10SW11SW13SW12
2 days agoSW8SW4SW10SW5W5SW6S5W4W33CalmS4SW5SW7SW8W6W7SW9SW9W7SW10SW11SW10SW12

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
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Sat -- 03:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:37 AM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:48 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:22 PM EDT     2.48 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:47 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
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Sat -- 01:18 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:44 AM EDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:17 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:29 PM EDT     1.39 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.