Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Emerald Isle, NC
May 3, 2024 7:51 PM EDT (23:51 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:12 AM Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 2:36 AM Moonset 2:01 PM |
AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 648 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024
Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se late. Seas 1 ft. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 3 seconds and se 1 ft at 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, diminishing to flat late. Patchy fog late.
Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 3 seconds and se 1 ft at 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Mon night - SW winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers after midnight.
Tue - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Wed - SW winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Wed night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ100 648 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Mostly dry backdoor cold front sags S through nern waters this afternoon before stalling over the area where it will linger into early next week. Strong easterly gusts are possible this evening behind the cold front. Benign winds/seas through the weekend but shower and tstorm activity to increase. Guidance continues to suggest sea fog development across area waters through at least Saturday.
Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 032320 AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 720 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will continue offshore today and into the weekend.
A slow moving cold front will linger over the area Saturday before retreating northward on Sunday. Thereafter weak troughing across the Eastern Seaboard and warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions through early next week. Drier conditions are expected by mid week, but will lead to increasing heat and humidity as ridging builds.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 715 PM Friday... Latest surface analysis shows previously mentioned backdoor cold front beginning to stall along our northern tier this evening with low stratus and patchy fog beginning to encroach across the NOBX and our NE'rn zones this evening. General expectation is for this low stratus to continue to push SW'wards, eventually encompassing the entire area tonight with some patchy fog also possible; mainly along areas east of Hwy 17 where easterly onshore flow will trap low level moisture below a low level inversion this evening. Still think we remain dry overall as lows get into the low to mid 60s.
Prev Disc...Back door cold front is making its way through NE portions of the CWA, winds shifting to become easterly behind it. Isallobaric winds are trailing behind this cold front.
Models seem to be underforecasting the wind gusts behind the back door cold front, with gusts of 20-25kts observed to our north. Strengthening of the pressure gradient behind the front as it moves south will likely bring wind gusts higher than what models are suggesting. With some increased moisture convergence west of the Pamlico river as the sea breeze pushes inland and encounters the back door cold front, we could see isolated sprinkles in the area of convergence this evening. The backdoor front stalls out over the CWA tonight where it will linger through the first half of the weekend.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
As of 300 PM Friday...Saturday will start off cloudy, low cloud cover slowly rising with the help of daytime heating. Weak cold front will remain over ENC with east/southeasterly flow expected most of the day. Stable onshore flow will limit instability development, and with drier air holding on across the area for most of the day, it is looking to be a mostly dry day with the exception of the coastal plain where some isolated shower/thunderstorm development may occur. Temperatures will remain above normal but a bit cooler than Friday with highs ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s (cooler along the coast with the onshore flow).
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As 315 AM Fri...A weak cold front will dip southward into the Carolinas this weekend with some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Unsettled weather will continue for the first half of next week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. By mid next week drier conditions will return but will be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity.
Sunday...Winds will veer to the south Sunday as the front retreats to the north. However this will bring better moisture/instability to the area and allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop Sunday afternoon with the most widespread rain across the coastal plain. Similar temps expected with highs in the 70s to low 80s.
Monday and Tuesday...High pressure will rebuild well offshore early next week while weak troughing remains along the Eastern Seaboard. With a moist and unstable airmass in place, diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms will develop with the best chances again over the coastal plain. Highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s again Monday with increasing low level thicknesses boosting Tuesday's highs into the low to mid 80s.
Wednesday and Thursday...Drier conditions are expected mid week as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast. However, increasing low level thicknesses and continued southerly flow will lead to hot and humid conditions will afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and the low to mid 80s closer to the coast. Some isolated airmass showers and thunderstorms are also possible each afternoon.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 715 PM Friday... Mainly VFR ceilings and vis across ENC with the lone exception being across the NOBX and far NE'rn zones where low stratus and patchy fog have begun to advect SW'wards across the area behind a stalling cold front resulting in a mix of IFR/LIFR ceilings. Current forecast has this low stratus continuing to march SW'wards eventually impacting EWN and OAJ first between 06-08Z and then PGV/ISO next around 8-10Z.
As a result, MVFR ceilings are forecast across all terminals for a brief time between 05-08Z followed quickly by IFR/LIFR ceilings. In addition to this, with low level E'rly flow advecting inland, some patchy fog is likely as well primarily east of Hwy 17 across EWN/OAJ terminals though ISO could see a brief period of lower vis early Sat morning as well. This fog threat is fairly conditional and more likely due to low stratus developing into fog overnight but did want to include reduced vis in the forecast given the fairly strong signal across the HI-Res guidance. Through tonight winds generally remain light and variable. Fog will dissipate by 13Z, but sub-VFR ceilings will linger into the early afternoon with IFR ceilings lifting from west to east between 13-16Z and MVFR ceilings then lifting to VFR conditions by Sat afternoon. Could see an iso shower or tstm especially across ISO/PGV Sat afternoon as well but confidence is too low to include this in the TAF's.
LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Generally VFR conditions are expected through early next week, however increasingly unsettled conditions could lead to moments of sub- VFR conditions each afternoon/evening.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 340 PM Friday...MWS has been issued for Albemarle/Croatan/Roanoke sounds and the Alligator River, along with coastal waters from Duck to Oregon Inlet this evening for a quick wind shift from westerly to easterly and gusty conditions behind a back door cold front. Potential exists for infrequent gusts of 30kts between 5-8pm today for the Albemarle sound, as easterly flow results in funneling. As we get into tonight gusts will lessen to 10-15kts behind the front. Winds will remain east/southeasterly tomorrow, sustained 10 kts gusting to 15 kts.
Seas are calm today, starting to build from the north overnight into Saturday. By Saturday evening, waves will be 2-4ft for coastal waters, highest north and east of Hatteras.
Fog threat persists into the weekend for coastal waters, sounds, and rivers once again.
LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Decent boating conditions are expected this weekend with slightly worsening conditions developing early next week.
Winds will come around to the south of Sunday at 5-15 kts. SW winds then develop Monday through most of next week with winds increasing to 10-20 kts. Seas will be generally 2-4 ft through Monday and then increase to 3-5 ft Tuesday.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 720 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will continue offshore today and into the weekend.
A slow moving cold front will linger over the area Saturday before retreating northward on Sunday. Thereafter weak troughing across the Eastern Seaboard and warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions through early next week. Drier conditions are expected by mid week, but will lead to increasing heat and humidity as ridging builds.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 715 PM Friday... Latest surface analysis shows previously mentioned backdoor cold front beginning to stall along our northern tier this evening with low stratus and patchy fog beginning to encroach across the NOBX and our NE'rn zones this evening. General expectation is for this low stratus to continue to push SW'wards, eventually encompassing the entire area tonight with some patchy fog also possible; mainly along areas east of Hwy 17 where easterly onshore flow will trap low level moisture below a low level inversion this evening. Still think we remain dry overall as lows get into the low to mid 60s.
Prev Disc...Back door cold front is making its way through NE portions of the CWA, winds shifting to become easterly behind it. Isallobaric winds are trailing behind this cold front.
Models seem to be underforecasting the wind gusts behind the back door cold front, with gusts of 20-25kts observed to our north. Strengthening of the pressure gradient behind the front as it moves south will likely bring wind gusts higher than what models are suggesting. With some increased moisture convergence west of the Pamlico river as the sea breeze pushes inland and encounters the back door cold front, we could see isolated sprinkles in the area of convergence this evening. The backdoor front stalls out over the CWA tonight where it will linger through the first half of the weekend.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
As of 300 PM Friday...Saturday will start off cloudy, low cloud cover slowly rising with the help of daytime heating. Weak cold front will remain over ENC with east/southeasterly flow expected most of the day. Stable onshore flow will limit instability development, and with drier air holding on across the area for most of the day, it is looking to be a mostly dry day with the exception of the coastal plain where some isolated shower/thunderstorm development may occur. Temperatures will remain above normal but a bit cooler than Friday with highs ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s (cooler along the coast with the onshore flow).
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As 315 AM Fri...A weak cold front will dip southward into the Carolinas this weekend with some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Unsettled weather will continue for the first half of next week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. By mid next week drier conditions will return but will be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity.
Sunday...Winds will veer to the south Sunday as the front retreats to the north. However this will bring better moisture/instability to the area and allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop Sunday afternoon with the most widespread rain across the coastal plain. Similar temps expected with highs in the 70s to low 80s.
Monday and Tuesday...High pressure will rebuild well offshore early next week while weak troughing remains along the Eastern Seaboard. With a moist and unstable airmass in place, diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms will develop with the best chances again over the coastal plain. Highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s again Monday with increasing low level thicknesses boosting Tuesday's highs into the low to mid 80s.
Wednesday and Thursday...Drier conditions are expected mid week as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast. However, increasing low level thicknesses and continued southerly flow will lead to hot and humid conditions will afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and the low to mid 80s closer to the coast. Some isolated airmass showers and thunderstorms are also possible each afternoon.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 715 PM Friday... Mainly VFR ceilings and vis across ENC with the lone exception being across the NOBX and far NE'rn zones where low stratus and patchy fog have begun to advect SW'wards across the area behind a stalling cold front resulting in a mix of IFR/LIFR ceilings. Current forecast has this low stratus continuing to march SW'wards eventually impacting EWN and OAJ first between 06-08Z and then PGV/ISO next around 8-10Z.
As a result, MVFR ceilings are forecast across all terminals for a brief time between 05-08Z followed quickly by IFR/LIFR ceilings. In addition to this, with low level E'rly flow advecting inland, some patchy fog is likely as well primarily east of Hwy 17 across EWN/OAJ terminals though ISO could see a brief period of lower vis early Sat morning as well. This fog threat is fairly conditional and more likely due to low stratus developing into fog overnight but did want to include reduced vis in the forecast given the fairly strong signal across the HI-Res guidance. Through tonight winds generally remain light and variable. Fog will dissipate by 13Z, but sub-VFR ceilings will linger into the early afternoon with IFR ceilings lifting from west to east between 13-16Z and MVFR ceilings then lifting to VFR conditions by Sat afternoon. Could see an iso shower or tstm especially across ISO/PGV Sat afternoon as well but confidence is too low to include this in the TAF's.
LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Generally VFR conditions are expected through early next week, however increasingly unsettled conditions could lead to moments of sub- VFR conditions each afternoon/evening.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 340 PM Friday...MWS has been issued for Albemarle/Croatan/Roanoke sounds and the Alligator River, along with coastal waters from Duck to Oregon Inlet this evening for a quick wind shift from westerly to easterly and gusty conditions behind a back door cold front. Potential exists for infrequent gusts of 30kts between 5-8pm today for the Albemarle sound, as easterly flow results in funneling. As we get into tonight gusts will lessen to 10-15kts behind the front. Winds will remain east/southeasterly tomorrow, sustained 10 kts gusting to 15 kts.
Seas are calm today, starting to build from the north overnight into Saturday. By Saturday evening, waves will be 2-4ft for coastal waters, highest north and east of Hatteras.
Fog threat persists into the weekend for coastal waters, sounds, and rivers once again.
LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Decent boating conditions are expected this weekend with slightly worsening conditions developing early next week.
Winds will come around to the south of Sunday at 5-15 kts. SW winds then develop Monday through most of next week with winds increasing to 10-20 kts. Seas will be generally 2-4 ft through Monday and then increase to 3-5 ft Tuesday.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 41064 | 21 mi | 103 min | S 7.8G | 74°F | 73°F | 30.04 | 71°F | |
| 41159 | 21 mi | 55 min | 73°F | 2 ft | ||||
| BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC | 23 mi | 51 min | SSW 5.1G | 74°F | 75°F | 30.02 | ||
| CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC | 26 mi | 51 min | S 8G | 73°F | 30.05 | |||
| 41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC | 41 mi | 103 min | S 7.8G | 74°F | 71°F | 30.04 | 69°F | |
| 41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC | 46 mi | 103 min | SSW 7.8G | 73°F | 71°F | 30.02 | 69°F | |
| 41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC | 46 mi | 55 min | 71°F | 2 ft | ||||
| JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC | 46 mi | 51 min | S 11G | 73°F | 71°F | 30.02 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KNJM BOGUE FIELD MCALF,NC | 13 sm | 54 min | SSW 08 | 7 sm | Clear | 73°F | 66°F | 78% | 30.04 | |
| KMRH MICHAEL J SMITH FIELD,NC | 24 sm | 53 min | S 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 75°F | 68°F | 78% | 30.04 |
Bogue Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:37 AM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 03:54 AM EDT 2.30 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:15 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 10:12 AM EDT 0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:01 PM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 04:28 PM EDT 2.38 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:55 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 10:45 PM EDT 0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:37 AM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 03:54 AM EDT 2.30 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:15 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 10:12 AM EDT 0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:01 PM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 04:28 PM EDT 2.38 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:55 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 10:45 PM EDT 0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Bogue Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.9 |
| 1 am |
| 1.4 |
| 2 am |
| 1.9 |
| 3 am |
| 2.2 |
| 4 am |
| 2.3 |
| 5 am |
| 2.1 |
| 6 am |
| 1.8 |
| 7 am |
| 1.3 |
| 8 am |
| 0.8 |
| 9 am |
| 0.3 |
| 10 am |
| 0.2 |
| 11 am |
| 0.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.1 |
Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:06 AM EDT 0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:36 AM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 06:01 AM EDT 1.32 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:14 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 12:41 PM EDT 0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:00 PM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 06:35 PM EDT 1.37 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:54 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:06 AM EDT 0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:36 AM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 06:01 AM EDT 1.32 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:14 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 12:41 PM EDT 0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:00 PM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 06:35 PM EDT 1.37 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:54 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Spooner Creek, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.1 |
| 1 am |
| 0.2 |
| 2 am |
| 0.4 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 1 |
| 5 am |
| 1.2 |
| 6 am |
| 1.3 |
| 7 am |
| 1.3 |
| 8 am |
| 1.1 |
| 9 am |
| 0.8 |
| 10 am |
| 0.5 |
| 11 am |
| 0.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Morehead City, NC,
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