Sunrise 6:14 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 3:08 AM   Moonset 3:13 PM

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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 205 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
This afternoon - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Patchy fog. Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Sun - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Mon night - SW winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms after midnight. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. Wed night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 205 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Cold front stalled over the area where it will linger into early next week. Benign winds/seas through the weekend but shower and tstorm activity to increase. Guidance continues to suggest sea fog development across area waters through at least Saturday.

FXUS62 KMHX 041415 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1015 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
A meandering cold front will linger over the area today before retreating northward on Sunday. Thereafter weak troughing across the Eastern Seaboard and warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions through early next week. Drier conditions are expected by mid week, but will lead to increasing heat and humidity as ridging builds.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/
As of 10 AM Saturday...The majority of the fog has dissipated but low stratus continues to blanket much of the coastal plain.
Some light showers have blossomed over Down East and PoPs have been slightly increased through the afternoon and early evening to reflect the 12Z run of the CAMs. Showers and thunderstorms are still expected to remain isolated to widely scattered.

Previous Discussion
As of 0400 Saturday
Ridging aloft persists through the near term with stalled front currently bisecting the FA over the Pamlico River and ample low level moisture has led to development of fog and stratus. Have opted to issue a dense fog advisory for the entire FA area through 12Z this morning. While every ob in the FA is not explicitly showing quarter mi VIS or less, the low level stratus will only help to decrease VIS. After sunrise, the fog will begin to dissipate, but the stratus will linger through much of the morning. Weak cold front will remain over ENC while becoming slightly more diffuse, but moving very little, with east/southeasterly flow expected most of the day. Most of the FA is expected to remain dry today save for our inland zones where showers and iso tstorms associated with a shortwave traveling NNEward from the Gulf states will pass over. Temperatures will remain above normal but a bit cooler than Friday with highs ranging from the upper 70s coast to mid 80s inland.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 0400 Saturday...Upper level ridge axis slides offshore this evening/tonight. Once the 850mb high slides offshore, moisture content increases through the column as flow in the lower levels becomes more SSEerly off the Atlantic, increasing PWATs back over an inch. Upper level precip support by way of shortwave approaching from the W allows showers to increase in coverage through the overnight. First, the stalled front will be the focus of precip, becoming more widespread in the early morning hours. Lows in the mid to upper 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As 315 AM Sat...Unsettled weather will continue for the first half of next week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. By mid next week drier conditions will return but will be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity.

Sunday through Tuesday...Winds will veer to the south Sunday and then SW Monday and Tuesday as high pressure rebuilds offshore through early next week. Despite this, a combination of weak troughing inland and deep moist southerly flow will bring fairly unsettled conditions through Tuesday. Showers and convection will be diurnally enhanced and will target the NC coastal plain the most with Monday and Tuesday likely having the greatest coverage. Temperatures will be cooler but still above normal with highs likely in the upper 70s to low 80s Sunday and Monday, and a bit warmer Tuesday...in the low to mid 80s.

Wednesday through Friday...Drier conditions are expected mid week as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast.
However, increasing low level thicknesses and continued southerly flow will lead to hot and humid conditions will afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and the low to mid 80s closer to the coast.

By late Thursday a potentially strong frontal system will move towards the East Coast and more unsettled conditions are expected through Friday.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 0630 Saturday...SubVFR flight cats this morning with fog/stratus in place. Fog is expected to dissipate by 13Z, but subVFR CIGs will linger due to stratus into at least the late morning with IFR CIGs lifting from W to E between 13-16Z and MVFR ceilings then lifting to VFR conditions by Sat afternoon.
Could see an iso shower or tstm especially across ISO/PGV Sat afternoon as well. Chances of showers increases area wide overnight with inland TAF sites showing greatest potential for subVFR CIGs briefly overnight.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 315 AM Sat...Generally VFR conditions are expected through mid next week, however increasingly unsettled conditions could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions each afternoon/evening. Dry and mostly clear conditions expected by Wednesday.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 0630 Saturday...Have expanded the dense fog advisory for coastal waters N of Hatt. Conditions will be monitored with potential of having to extend the advisory a little longer this morning. The rest of the forecast remains unchanged

Previous Disco as of 0400...Dense fog advisory has been issued for all inland waters. There is fog over portions of the coastal waters as well, but no way to verify VIS so will have to wait for daybreak to make decision on whether or not a dense fog advisory will be needed offshore. Light and variable winds early become Eerly 10-15kt this afternoon. Recent buoy data shows seas generally 1-2ft with seas building to 3ft from N to S through the day to become 2-3ft everywhere with 4ft over outer waters, highest N and E of Hatt. Showers and tstorms possible this evening into the overnight hours.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 315 AM Sat...Decent boating conditions are expected this weekend with slightly worsening conditions developing early next week.

Winds will come around to the south of Sunday at 5-15 kts, and continue to veer to the SW by Monday at 10-15 kts. SW winds will then increase to 15-20 kts Monday night through Wednesday and could occasionally gust to 25 kts. Seas will be generally 2-4 ft through Monday and then increase to 3-5 ft Tuesday and Wednesday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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New River Inlet
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Sat -- 04:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:59 AM EDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:08 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:29 PM EDT     3.50 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:49 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

New River Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

Bogue Inlet
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Sat -- 04:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:56 AM EDT     2.33 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:06 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:26 PM EDT     2.60 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:47 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bogue Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,