Sunday, February1, 2015 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sneads Ferry, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
1/11/2015 - Updated Marine Zones because NOAA split some zones on the East Coast. You may need to edit or your forecast section. 6/17/2014 - I reported slow load times to NOAA and they quickly resolved the problem. Sorry for any inconvience. NOAA had some stuck processes on two servers. This was a problem on 5 to 10% of the requests.
6/10/2014 - Marine Zones updated. Some zones have changed. Edit your Marine Forecast section to check.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 5:40PM Sunday February 1, 2015 2:03 AM EST (07:03 UTC) Moonrise 3:56PMMoonset 5:13AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1257 Am Est Sun Feb 1 2015
Rest of tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft...building to 2 to 3 ft late. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop...increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft...building to 5 to 8 ft after midnight. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. Rain likely in the evening...then rain with a chance of tstms after midnight.
Mon..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft... Except 5 to 8 ft near shore. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough. Rain with a chance of tstms in the morning...then rain likely in the afternoon.
Mon night..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt...becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft...subsiding to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough... Diminishing to choppy after midnight.
Tue..N winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft...subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy... Diminishing to light chop in the afternoon.
Tue night..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 25 to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft...building to 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop...increasing to very rough. A chance of rain. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ100 1257 Am Est Sun Feb 1 2015
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. High pressure will build over the region tonight then slide offshore Sunday. A cold front will approach from the west Sunday night and cross the area Monday. High pressure will build in from the west Tuesday and move offshore Tuesday night. A cold front will cross the area Wednesday night. Low pressure will develop on the front offshore of the coast Thursday and move away from the region Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sneads Ferry, NC
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location: 34.54, -77.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 010546
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport/morehead city nc
1246 am est Sun feb 1 2015

Synopsis
High pressure will build over the region tonight then slide
offshore Sunday. A cold front will approach from the west Sunday
night and cross the area Monday. High pressure will build in from
the west Tuesday and move offshore Wednesday. A cold front will
cross the area by Thursday morning. Low pressure may impact the
area Thursday or Friday.

Near term /until 6 am this morning/
As of 1240 am Sunday... High clouds continue to approach from the
west as mid/upper level ridge temporarily builds over the eastern
carolinas today. Temperatures have dropped into the 25-32 degree
range across the CWA but should level off as the clouds approach
and a light southwest wind continues.

Short term /6 am this morning through 6 pm today/
As of 230 pm Saturday... Sfc high will slide offshore with low lvl
flow becoming SW over the area. Decent amount of mid/high clouds
expected... However with some filtered Sun shld see temps near
seasonal lvls with around 50 far NE to mid/upr 50s sw.

Long term /tonight through Saturday/
As of 3 pm sat... Long term pattern will feature a roller coaster
temp regime with several low pressure systems passing through the
area.

Agreement amongst models remains good for the Sunday night into
Monday low pressure system and cold front. A strong shortwave will
swing through the central plains states Sunday night with surface
low development along the eastern ohio river valley... With a
strengthening low moving through pa and the northern mid atlantic
Monday morning. SW winds will strengthen Sunday night as 850mb sw
jet inc to 60+ kt by early Mon morning. Another non- diurnal temp
curve with lows in the upr 40s/low 50s realized early in the
evening before rising to around 60 prior to sunrise with the gusty
sw winds developing overnight. Increasing rain chances through the
night as frontogenesis... Deep layer moisture... And large scale
lift increase through the night. Rainfall amounts will average
around a half an inch as almost no instability will be present
over land and the system will be fast moving with main dynamics
remaining to the north of the area. Rain will end by Monday
afternoon as system exits off the coast. Highs around 60 will be
realized during the first half of the day before another strong
surge of cold air moves into the region with gusty NW winds
developing by the afternoon and temps falling through the 50s.

The upper shortwave will cross eastern nc Mon evening with surge
of gusty NW winds ushering cold temps Mon night. Lows in the mid
20s (near 30 obx) will combine with the NW winds to produce wind
chills around 20 prior to daybreak tue. Low level thicknesses fall
to around 1280-1290 meters Tuesday as high pressure noses south
over the region from the mid- atlantic states. Expect highs
ranging from the upper 30s northeast to middle 40s southwest on
Tuesday. The high shifts off the mid-atlantic coast Tuesday night
into Wednesday allowing a weak warm air advection trend to
develop. Mainly clear skies Tue night with calm winds and low td
vals will allow another chilly night with lows in the mid/upr 20s.

31/12z model suite continues to diverge significantly mid to late
week in handling of synoptic pattern. The deterministic gfs/gem
continue to eject southern stream low developing over the SW conus
and moving into the gom... While at the same time phasing it with a
northern stream short wave digging southeastward from the upr
midwest. The system then would move NE up the SE coast with this
pattern. Continued large spread amongst GEFS spaghetti members
continue to indicate low confidence within the GFS itself. Ecmwf
continues to indicate a dry but cold pattern thur night and
fri... Though ecens mean indicates a wetter soln than the
deterministic run so also low confidence in deterministic ecm.

Due to all these factors... Will continue with low chance pops
thur/thur night in line with wpc pop fcst. Too early to tell
exactly what p-type will be... Though will base fcst on climatology
and indicate ra in grids with slgt ch sn as arctic air will be
present to the N and w.

Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/
Short term /through 06z Monday/... High confidence continues for
vfr conditions through this TAF cycle. High clouds will increase
from the west today with light southwest winds. Good agreement in
the various short range models delaying any precipitation until
after midnight Sunday night and have indicated just a lower of
ceilings to around 4000 feet by 01z or so Monday.

Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...

as of 3 pm sat... Next chance of precipitation arrives Sun night
with sub-vfr or even ifr conditions late Sunday night into Monday
associated with a cold front passage. Winds become gusty out of
the S to SW late Sun night in the 15-25 kt range. Winds remain
gusty on Monday while switching to the west and north behind the
front. High pressure builds back over the region Monday evening
through Wednesday with a return toVFR.

Marine
Short term /tonight and Sunday/...

as of 1240 am Sunday... Generally light southwest currently across
the waters and sounds. Seas are 3 to 5 feet... Except 6 feet at
diamond buoy. That is likely temporary as surface high crests
across the region this morning. SW winds will slowly increase
Sunday as high moves offshore in advance on next cold front.

Speeds shld reach 10 to 15 kts in the aftn with seas mainly 2 to 3
feet... Poss reaching 4 ft outer srn/cntrl wtrs twrd evening.

Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...

as of 3 pm sat... Increasing southwest winds and building seas
expected Sunday night ahead of a strong cold front... Which should
cross the eastern nc coastal waters Monday afternoon.

Winds will increase 25-35 knots late Sunday evening with seas
building up to 10-14 ft across the outer srn/central waters by Monday
morning. SW gales look probably for the outer southern and central
waters where the warmer gulf stream waters reside beginning late
Sunday night. The winds switch to the NW Mon afternoon and evening
and may have gales across all the waters including the eastern
albemarle and pamlico sounds as strong cold air advection
develops. Used a blend of nwps/wave watch iv/previous fcst sun
night then mainly wavewatch iv Mon evening as this does best with
northwest flow regime. Seas are expected to remain elevated
through mid day Tuesday before subsiding below 6 ft in the
afternoon. High pressure will shift through the eastern nc waters
Tuesday night and off the coast Wednesday... Winds shifting to sw
but remaining 10 knots or less. Seas will range 2-4 ft Tuesday
night through Wednesday. Local swan/nwps and wavewatch iv in
close agreement in the medium range and 00z wavewatch appeared
reasonable for the long term as models in good agreement with
strengthening northerly winds and SCA conditions developing by
thur behind a cold front.

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rf
near term... Ctc
short term... Rf
long term... Tl
aviation... Ctc/tl
marine... Jac/ctc/tl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi34 min WSW 6 G 7 41°F 53°F1025.9 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 33 mi45 min 51°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 34 mi64 min WSW 7.8 G 7.8 47°F 51°F1026.6 hPa (-0.8)
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 38 mi139 min WNW 1.9 36°F 1027 hPa32°F
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 38 mi34 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 37°F 45°F1025.3 hPa
WLON7 39 mi34 min 35°F 46°F1026.3 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 44 mi64 min WSW 5.1 G 6 45°F 1026.1 hPa (-1.2)

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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G14

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville, New River, Marine Corps Air Station, NC13 mi68 minWSW 410.00 miFair36°F23°F59%1026.6 hPa
Swansboro, Bogue Field, Marine Corps Auxiliary Landing Field, NC19 mi67 minN 010.00 miFair29°F24°F82%1027.1 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW10NW11NW10NW10NW8N9N8N10NW9N9N10N65N6N7NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW4SW4
1 day agoSW7SW6SW6SW6W5W8NW11NW17
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmNW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmE4E6S8S7S6S6S7S4S4S7SW7W6SW7

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
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Sun -- 05:12 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:50 AM EST     3.17 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:17 PM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:55 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:38 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:07 PM EST     2.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.10.311.92.633.22.92.31.50.80.2-0.100.41.11.72.22.42.31.81.10.5-0

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:13 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:37 AM EST     4.54 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:59 AM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:56 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:39 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:54 PM EST     3.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:47 PM EST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-00.71.82.93.94.44.5431.90.80.1-0.10.10.81.82.63.23.43.12.41.40.4-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.