Friday, August1, 2014 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sneads Ferry, NC

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6/10/2014 - Marine Zones updated. Some zones have changed. Edit your Marine Forecast section to check.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 8:13PM Friday August 1, 2014 3:45 AM EDT (07:45 UTC) Moonrise 10:26AMMoonset 10:10PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 113 Am Edt Fri Aug 1 2014
Rest of tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Showers and tstms likely...mainly in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Showers and tstms likely in the evening...then showers likely with a chance of tstms after midnight.
Sat..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Tstms likely. Showers likely.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Showers and tstms likely.
Sun night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Showers and tstms likely...mainly in the evening.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ100 113 Am Edt Fri Aug 1 2014
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. High pressure shift northeast of the waters this morning as a front offshore backs toward the coast. The front will remain stationary over the eastern north carolina waters through the weekend and into next week. The front will dissipate by midweek.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sneads Ferry, NC
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location: 34.54, -77.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 010645
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport/morehead city nc
245 am edt Fri aug 1 2014

Synopsis
High pressure will shift northeast this morning as a front offshore
backs toward the coast. The front will remain stationary over
eastern north carolina through the weekend and into early next
week. The front will dissipate by midweek.

Near term /through today/
As of 130 am fri... Surface and satellite observations indicate the
inverted trough is located well off the nc/sc coast... With showers
and thunderstorms over the CAPE fear region spreading northeast
across onslow/duplin counties over the next few hours and
eventually across the coastal plain counties over the next 5-6
hours. Satellite blended precipitable water illustrates a sharp
moisture gradient between the northern obx with pwats near 1.40
inches... And pender/sampson counties where pwats are above 2
inches. This moisture rich air to the SW will shift north over
eastern nc through the early morning hours as the weak inverted
trough shifts closer to the nc coast. Winds remain mostly E to ese
this morning but shift SW by roughly 700 mb. Guidance also
suggests a weak shortwave helping aid shower/thunderstorm
production across CAPE fear which should slowly translate NE over
the western portions of the CWA this morning. Biggest changes for
the early morning period was to increase clouds and bump minimum
temps up a degree or two... Mainly for inland sections where clouds
will greatly inhibit radiational cooling. Expect low 70s inland to
mid 70s along the coast and obx.

The inverted trough will shift north through eastern nc today with
precip chances increasing this morning and afternoon. Guidance
indicates another strong vortmax approaching the coastal plain
counties from the SW after 18z today. Rain may be heavy at times
and QPF amounts range 0.25-0.75 inches across the cwa... Though
could see higher amounts in strong storms. mbe vectors greater
than 20 knots most of today but fall off quickly below 15 knots by
late afternoon when back-building/training of cells may be possible.

Maintained chance pops increasing to likely by 18z across the
region. Wide coverage of storms and limited instability should
reduce the severe weather threat although cannot rule out an isolated
damaging wind gust or even hail. MAX temps will be a bit tricky
today as clouds inhibit insolation... Though any breaks in the
clouds could allow temps to build above current mid 80s forecast.

Short term /tonight/
As of 140 am fri... Could see a brief respite from rain for inland
locations tonight as shortwave aloft shifts off the coast... Though
will maintain chance pops inland to likely pops along the coast
given the moisture-rich SW flow with pwats above 2 inches for the
region. Heavy downpours and localized flooding concerns will
continue this evening as mbe vectors fall below 10 knots for the
short term. SW flow strengthens overnight with the surface front
located west of the cwa... Nearly along the i-95 corridor. Guidance
indicates channeled weak vorticity aloft will shift over the
region and may aid in maintaining scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

Long term /Saturday through Thursday/
As of 245 am fri... The upper trough remains to the west through the
weekend with a rich supply of deep gulf/caribbean moisture
continuing to train into the southeastern us. The area
continues to be in the favorable right entrance region of jet with
pwats remaining above 2 inches... And conditions are expected to
remain quite wet as an inverted trough remains nearly stationary
across the area. Ecmwf/wpc QPF amounts through the period are in
the 2 to 4 inch range... And as high as 5 inches. With much of
eastern nc having received copious amounts of rain over the last
several weeks... With places in the coastal plain and crystal coast
areas at 150-200 percent of normal rainfall... So flooding concerns
will be possible. Temps will be held down by the abundant clouds
and rain... Which will also act to limit destabilization so no
severe weather is expected. Highs generally in the lower 80s... And
overnight lows in the 70s.

The upper trough lifts out next week with the subtropical ridge
over the western atlantic building into the region and expect more
typical summertime diurnally driven convection to return by
midweek with temps climbing back to seasonable norms.

Aviation /07z Friday through Tuesday/
Short term /through 06z Saturday/...

as of 140 am...VFR conditions early this morning will lower to
MVFR in lowered ceilings late this morning for oaj/iso then by
early afternoon for iso/pgv as showers and thunderstorms traverse
eastern nc TAF sites. The offshore inverted trough will begin to
back toward the coast this morning and shift NW through the region
today. In addition... A shortwave in developing moist upper SW flow
will bring increasing chances for showers and tstorms (and sub-vfr
conditions) especially this afternoon. MVFR conditions will be
possible this afternoon through tonight given moist southerly flow
with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected across the
region.

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...

as of 245 am fri... An inverted trough of low pressure remains
across the region through the weekend... With enc in favorable
regime for widespread showers and thunderstorms with periods of
sub-vfr conditions likely through Monday. The trough begins to
weaken gradually through the middle of next week... With shower
and thunderstorm chances gradually diminishing.

Marine
Short term /through tonight/...

as of 140 am fri... Latest surface and buoy data indicate e/ese
flow across the waters 10-15 kt with higher gusts offshore... And
seas 3-5 ft. The inverted trough well offshore will shift north
through the waters today... Shifting winds more SE 10-15 kt today.

Winds shift more se/s tonight as the front stalls well inland from
the coast. Seas remain 2-4 ft range today and tonight.

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...

as of 245 am fri... A coastal trough will reside across eastern north
carolina through much of the long term bring periods of unsettled
weather in form of showers and thunderstorms this weekend into
early next week. Winds and seas should remain sub SCA through the
long term period with winds generally 15 knots or less. Seas will
remain the 2 to 4 foot range much of the period. Might start to
see building seas tue... Up to 5ft... With increasing swell from
distant TC bertha.

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Dag
near term... Dag
short term... Dag
long term... Sk/cqd
aviation... Dag/cqd
marine... Dag/cqd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41036 - Onslow Bay Outer, NC 31 mi56 min E 16 G 19 81°F 81°F5 ft1018.3 hPa (-1.6)74°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi28 min ESE 20 G 24 81°F 83°F1017 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 33 mi36 min 81°F5 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 34 mi46 min ESE 18 G 21 78°F 81°F
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 38 mi61 min E 6 78°F 1016 hPa76°F
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 38 mi28 min E 6 G 11 80°F 82°F1018.1 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi106 min SE 18 G 19 78°F 81°F1018.3 hPa (-0.5)
WLON7 39 mi28 min 76°F 84°F1017.3 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 44 mi46 min E 17 G 19 80°F 1018.5 hPa (-2.1)

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville, New River, Marine Corps Air Station, NC13 mi50 minE 610.00 miFair76°F69°F79%1018.7 hPa
BOGUE FIELD MCAL, NC19 mi49 minE 810.00 miFair80°F70°F71%1019.4 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E5E5CalmE4E7E8E9E8E10SE10E10SE9SE6SE10E8CalmE8NE8E8E7E6E7E6
1 day agoN4N3N5N4CalmE5E7E9E8E6SE5E5NE6E8SE11E11SE10E8E7E6E6E7E6E5
2 days agoN8N6N4N5N8N8N8NE9N5N6NW6N7NE4N7NW9N11N7N6N5E7E5E6E7NE5

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
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Fri -- 05:37 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:51 AM EDT     2.85 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:55 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:10 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:57 PM EDT     2.81 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.92.51.91.30.60.30.20.511.72.32.72.82.72.21.610.60.40.611.62.22.7

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
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Fri -- 05:18 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:38 AM EDT     4.07 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:37 PM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:11 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:44 PM EDT     4.02 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
43.42.61.60.70.30.40.91.72.63.5443.732.11.30.80.71.11.72.63.43.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.