Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 11:54 PM   Moonset 8:22 AM

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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 417 Am Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Today - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw late. Seas 3 to 4 ft, except around 2 ft near shore. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 8 seconds and se 2 ft at 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 8 seconds and sw 2 ft at 3 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 3 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the morning. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Thu - NE winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Thu night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.

AMZ100 417 Am Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure will remain anchored offshore through mid week. A cold front may then impact the area late in the week.

FXUS62 KMHX 280754 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 354 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will remain anchored offshore through mid week. A cold front may then impact the area late in the week.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/
As of 230 AM Sunday...

Mid/upper level ridging will be anchored over the Carolinas today, while at the surface, high pressure will be anchored offshore. Despite the development of the afternoon seabreeze, showers are not expected today thanks to large scale subsidence beneath the ridge. With warming thicknesses, and less cloudcover than yesterday, highs today are expected to top out a good 5-10 degrees higher, especially away from the coast.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 230 AM Sunday...

A light south to southwest flow plus warming thicknesses will support milder temperatures tonight, with lows around 60 degrees areawide. This is about 5 degrees, or so, warmer than normal for late April. Like this morning, there could be some patchy, shallow fog around, but widespread, impactful fog is not expected.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 330 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Low to mid 80s for the rest of the week

- Best rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday and then Saturday into Sunday next weekend.

FORECAST DETAILS

Monday...High pressure will be in control on Monday and weather will be quiet. No precipitation is expected. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s with mid to upper 70s along the immediate coast.

Above normal temperatures continue on Tuesday with highs reaching the low to mid 80s inland with mid to upper 70s along the coast. Dry weather will prevail through much of the day on Tuesday with a fairly unorganized disturbance beginning to approach from the west with rain chances holding off until overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday. Rain chances have been trending downward with this system so QPF will be fairly minimal.

The aforementioned weak disturbance will move across the area on Tuesday night or Wednesday and with it a chance for showers and thunderstorms. This does not look like a severe threat at this point. Thursday looks drier relative to Wednesday but another slight chance (20%) for showers and thunderstorms will be possible, mainly in the western counties. Despite this moving through the area, temperatures will remain high during this time topping out in the upper 80s inland to mid to upper 70s along the coast.

A little more moisture advection Saturday and Sunday with both the Bermuda High and an approaching frontal system from the west contributing to the increase in precipitable water. Low chances (25- 30 %) for showers and thunderstorms with a prefrontal trough on Saturday followed by slightly higher chances (30-35%) with the main front on Sunday. Temperatures slightly cooler both days but still well above normal for this time of year.

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06z Sunday/...
As of 145 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES

- VFR conditions likely over the next 24 hrs (60-80% chance)

FORECAST DETAILS

High pressure anchored offshore will keep a moist, south to southeast flow going across Eastern NC over the next 24 hours.
Aviation impacts look minimal during this time, and the TAFs mainly reflect the developing, and inland-moving, seabreeze Sunday afternoon, accompanied by FEW/SCT cumulus clouds. With ridging aloft, and nebulous instability, the risk of SHRA along the seabreeze looks very low (<5% chance). Of note, low temp/dewpoint spreads overnight may support a chance of shallow fog (MIFG), but at this time, the threat of a more impactful fog appears low (<20% chance).

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...The expected synoptic weather pattern carries a high probability of VFR conditions through next week, with little to no aviation impacts. An approaching disturbance will bring some chances for precipitation Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

The background northeasterly swell will continue through tonight, with a developing southwesterly wind swell late this afternoon into this evening. This will continue to support seas of 3-5 ft through tonight. Light south winds of 5-10kt this morning will increase to 10-20kt this afternoon, and become southwesterly. Modest southwesterly winds then continue into tonight. There may be just enough of a gradient to support a few gusts of 20-25kt, but the risk appears too low to warrant any marine headlines.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Good boating conditions expected early next week

FORECAST DETAILS

High pressure will shift offshore early next week, with inland troughing developing in the lee of the Appalachians. Winds will steadily increase early next week with southwesterly flow of 10-20kt common. Seas of 3-5 ft will be common through early next week, setting up good boating conditions for several days.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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