Tuesday, February9, 2016 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sneads Ferry, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.
1/11/2015 - Updated Marine Zones because NOAA split some zones on the East Coast. You may need to edit or your forecast section.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 5:48PM Tuesday February 9, 2016 12:44 PM EST (17:44 UTC) Moonrise 7:34AMMoonset 7:14PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1006 Am Est Tue Feb 9 2016
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning...
Rest of today..W winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft...except 4 to 6 ft near shore. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft...except 4 to 6 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A slight chance of showers.
Wed..W winds 20 to 25 kt...diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft...except 3 to 5 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough...diminishing to choppy in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers.
Wed night..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft... Except 3 to 5 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt...becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy... Diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop... Increasing to a moderate chop.
Sat..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sneads Ferry, NC
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location: 34.54, -77.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 091451
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport/morehead city nc
951 am est Tue feb 9 2016

Synopsis
A secondary cold front will move through the area from the west
today. Arctic high pressure will build in from the northwest
tonight through early Friday. An arctic cold front will move
through the area Friday night followed by the a blast of very
cold air for the weekend.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
As of 945 am Tuesday... Vsby satellite showing some cloudiness over
our western CWA with light radar returns... But surface
observations are not indicating any of this activity making it to
the surface. Will continue trend of partly cloudy skies and cool
temperatures for the afternoon with highs generally in the upper
40s to around 50. Light wsw will increase and become more westerly
during the afternoon per latest hrrr model. Minimal changes to the
current forecast.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday/
As of 300 am Tuesday... Cloudiness with shrt WV energy will
continue into evening... Then some clearing expected overnight.

Continued advection of arctic air mass will drop min temps into
mid to upr 20s inland and low-mid 30s obx even with west winds
5-15 mph keeping mixed atmos.

Long term /Wednesday through Monday/
As of 325 am tue... Below normal temps expected through early next
week... With arctic air moving into eastern nc this weekend.

Low pressure over the NE states will continue to push NE Wed and
wed night while deep trough moves through the eastern us. Pred dry
and cold Wed and thu. Could see some isolated light snow
showers/flurries along the outer banks Wed night... Though expect
most of precip to remain offshore. Low level thickness values
support highs Wed in the low 40s and 35-40 deg thu... And overnight
lows in the 20s.

Still some disagreement between the gfs/ecmwf for Friday and
Friday night... Though 00z solutions now slightly drier than
previous runs. Still looks like strong forcing as shortwave moves
through while sfc high builds over the area. The shortwave could
provide enough lift to see some -ra/-sn showers. ECMWF remains
warmer then the GFS at the sfc and aloft... With ptype mainly
liquid while the GFS supports more of a light wintry mix. Will
continue sc -ra/-sn mention though little if any accumulations
expected at this time.

A strong arctic cold front will move through the area late fri
night into early Saturday... With very cold/dry airmass pushing
into the region. Very cold 1035-1040mb high pressure will build in
from the nnw Sat and sun. Low level thickness values and 850mb
temps support highs Sat in the upper 30s to low 40s... And even
colder for sun. With 850mb temps -15 to -20c highs will struggle
to reach freezing Sunday... Combined with gusty nly winds it will
feel like temps in the teens for most of the day. Overnight lows
will drop into the mid/upper teens to low 20s along the
coast... Both Sunday and Monday mornings. Will keep sc mention of
-sn showers over the outer banks Sat night into Sun with strong
forcing over the area and low level nnw flow.

Early next week temps look to rebound ahead of the next system.

Models are pushing a trough through the region and developing a
sfc low off the SE coast late Mon and tue... With better precip
chances across the area. Added sc pop for Monday afternoon into
tue. Depending on the timing... Precip could begin as light snow
Monday morning before transitioning to rain by early afternoon.

Aviation /14z Tuesday through Saturday/
Short term /through 12z Wednesday/...

as of 700 am Tuesday... LCL ifr cig and/or vsby will affect taf
sites until 13z... Then expected to dissipate with increasing west
winds. Area of scu/ac with upr lvl energy already moving into
coastal plains... With additional activity this aftn into
evening... Then clearing overnight. West winds will gust to
around 20 kt during the day.

Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...

as of 325 am tue... PredVFR conditions expected through the
period. There is the potential for a brief period of MVFR ceilings
late Fri and Fri night with isolated rain/snow showers. Westerly
wind gusts around 20kt Wed and Thu afternoons.

Marine
Short term /through tonight/...

as of 945 am Monday... West winds prevail on the coastal waters and
sounds... With a few gusts into the upper teens at hatteras coast
guard station and diamond shoals. Seas continue quite rough with
9-12 feet offshore. Per latest 3-km hrrr and rap models... Expect
winds to increase a bit during the afternoon hours and will
continue to indicate this trend in the forecast. Wave models
continue to be underdone by 3-5 ft with large dangerous swell over
nrn and central waters... And relied on manual adjustments to fcst.

Swell will continue to gradually subside but increasing westerly
winds will lead to elevated seas persisting for several days.

Long term /Wednesday through Friday/...

as of 325 am tue... Poor boating conditions will continue through
much of the period with west/northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and
elevated seas of 6 ft or higher. Small craft advisory conditions
are expected to continue through Thursday night for the coastal
waters and the pamlico sound. Surface high pressure will build
over the waters Fri with winds and seas gradually subsiding... With
winds less than 15kt and seas 2-4ft. A strong front will move
through the waters Saturday. NW winds will increase to 20-30kt and
seas building to 5-8ft. Gale force wind gusts will be possible
late Sat and Sat night.

Tides/coastal flooding
As of 950 am Tuesday... Lingering very large swells associated
with yesterdays low pressure system will continue to impact the
outer banks through this afternoon. These swells in conjunction
with the high tides this morning will lead to ocean overwash and
beach erosion especially along hatteras island. Portions of
highway 12 in the usual vulnerable locations could become water
covered around the times of high tide this morning.

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories
Nc... Coastal flood advisory until 11 am est this morning for ncz104.

Coastal flood warning until 11 am est this morning for ncz103.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Thursday for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 7 am est Friday for amz150-152-154-
156-158.

Synopsis... Jbm
near term... Ctc
short term... Jbm
long term... Cqd
aviation... Jbm/cqd
marine... Ctc/cqd
tides/coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 31 mi36 min 23 G 31 47°F 61°F1004.9 hPa
41159 31 mi49 min 61°F8 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi44 min WSW 16 G 22 44°F 53°F1004.6 hPa (-0.5)
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 33 mi38 min 51°F4 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 34 mi96 min W 18 G 21 44°F 51°F1007.1 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 38 mi59 min 47°F 1005 hPa28°F
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 38 mi44 min W 7 G 16 47°F 47°F1003.8 hPa (+0.0)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi96 min W 23 G 31 44°F 60°F1005.3 hPa
WLON7 39 mi44 min 47°F 49°F1005.6 hPa (-0.8)

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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S15
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N26
G34
N27
G40
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N24
G36
NW24
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NW19
G30
NW17
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NW20
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NW11
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NW10
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W6
G10
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G9
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SE3
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NE12
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G16
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N12
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N8
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G30
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N18
G22
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N25
N23
G30
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G35
N21
G31
N26
G37

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville, New River, Marine Corps Air Station, NC13 mi48 minWSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy47°F30°F54%1005.2 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC19 mi47 minSW 11 miMostly Cloudy48°F33°F56%1005.6 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8SE14S14
G19
S9
G22
S7S7S6W6W14
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--SW3W3W6W9W8
G14
W6W6W6W7W11W10W12
G18
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1 day agoN24
G30
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NW16NW13NW11NW10W10W8W7W8NW6NW3--
2 days agoN7N8N8N8NE7N7NE8NE9N11NE13NE10N10N12N15N19
G27
N13
G22
N18
G22
N17N18
G24
N17
G23
N15
G26
N18N22
G31
N17
G22

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:30 AM EST     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:52 AM EST     3.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:12 PM EST     -0.57 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:46 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:13 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:13 PM EST     3.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-0.6-0.6-0.10.71.82.83.53.63.32.61.60.6-0.2-0.6-0.40.2122.73.132.41.5

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:12 AM EST     -1.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:39 AM EST     5.21 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:54 PM EST     -0.91 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:47 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:14 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:00 PM EST     4.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.5-1-0.801.42.94.25.15.24.63.41.80.4-0.6-0.9-0.50.51.83.14.14.44.13.11.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.