Thursday, December18, 2014 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sneads Ferry, NC

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6/10/2014 - Marine Zones updated. Some zones have changed. Edit your Marine Forecast section to check.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:02PM Thursday December 18, 2014 7:29 PM EST (00:29 UTC) Moonrise 3:29AMMoonset 2:34PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 651 Pm Est Thu Dec 18 2014
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop...increasing to a moderate chop late.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds...decreasing to 3 seconds after midnight. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop... Increasing to a moderate chop after midnight.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the morning...then rain likely in the afternoon.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Rain likely...mainly in the evening.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of rain.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming w. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of rain.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft...building to 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop...increasing to a moderate chop. A chance of rain...then a chance of showers.
AMZ100 651 Pm Est Thu Dec 18 2014
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. High pressure will build in from the northwest through Friday. A weak low pressure system will move through the southeast states Saturday then off the coast Sunday. Another weak low will move along the southeast coast Sunday night and Monday. A stronger system will approach from the west Tuesday with associated cold front pushing through eastern north carolina Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sneads Ferry, NC
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location: 34.54, -77.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 182300
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport/morehead city nc
600 pm est Thu dec 18 2014

Synopsis
High pressure will build in from the northwest through Friday.

A weak low pressure system will move through the southeast states
Saturday then off the coast Sunday. Another weak low will move
along the southeast coast Sunday night and Monday. A stronger
system will approach from the west Tuesday with associated cold
front pushing through eastern north carolina Wednesday.

Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/
As of 600 pm Thursday... High pressure will continue to build over
the area from the north tonight. Aloft the tail end of a shortwave
moving through the northeast will produce a deck of mid level
clouds across the area through much of tonight, thickest north.

These clouds will have some effect on radiational cooling as winds
will be calm. Think there will be enough breaks in the cloud cover
though such that forecast lows around 30 inland and mid 30s
beaches will be realized.

Short term /6 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday/
As of 3 pm Thursday... Friday's weather will be quite similar to
that of today with partly to mostly sunny skies as high pressure
ridges southeast from the ohio valley. Anticipate similar
temperatures with highs low/mid 50s with light n/ne winds.

Long term /Friday night through Thursday/
As of 315 pm thurs... Active pattern expected this weekend into next
week. High pressure will continue to be wedged into nc... As a low
pressure system tracking from the deep south will impact the area
Saturday. Deep isentropic lift... Btw 290k-300k will occur ahead of
the of low. There's sufficient lift to support precip... But low
continues to weaken and farther away from the coast. Keeping most of
the precip along the coast. Each model run has had the low pushing
farther out... Therefore trending drier. If models continues with
this trends... Pops will need to be lowed. Expecting precip to taper
off Sat night into Sun as isentropic lift shuts off... But low level
moisture will linger. Have kept slight chance along the coast and
decreased pops inland on Sunday. Low level thickness support highs
in the upper 40s/low 50s Saturday and low/mid 50s Sunday.

Another weak low is expected to move along the SE coast Sun night
into Monday as high pressure still wedged in the area. Uncertainty
remains with the timing and rain chances... As ECMWF is quite faster
than gfs. Kept pops in 30-40 percent range for Monday and then
drying out late Monday night into Tuesday.

Tuesday into Wednesday... Moisture and mid/upper dynamics will
increase as a trough deepens into the southern plains and become
negatively-tilted on Wednesday. At the surface... The main low
will become vertically stacked over the upper midwest/great lake
region... Meanwhile a secondary low develops along the cold front
ahead of the trough. This upcoming pattern will support the
potential for strong thunderstorms and gusty winds as 0-6km shear
low level helicity values are high and upper level jet will be
over the area. Instability should decrease after the passage of the
cold front.

Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/
Short term /through 12z Friday/...

as of 600 pm Thursday... High confidence in aVFR forecast through
the TAF period as high pressure builds over the area. Although winds
will be calm overnight, we are expecting a widespread mid cloud
deck to persist for much of the night which will inhibit
radiational fog from developing. Continued dry weather and light
winds expected Friday with skies clearing early.

Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...

as of 330 pm thurs... Conditions will deteriorate Saturday and
into early next week as two low pressure sys will impact eastern
nc. Expect conditions to become sub-vfr during periods of rain.

Marine
Short term /through tonight/...

as of 600 pm Thursday... Light mainly n/nw winds will prevail tonight
with high pressure nosing southeast from the ohio valley through
Friday. Speeds will generally be 10 knots or less with 3 to 5 ft
seas subsiding to 2 to 4 ft late tonight. Friday should continue
with benign marine conditions with N winds 10 to 15 knots with
seas 2 to 4 feet per latest local swan/nwps models and wavewatch.

Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...

as of 345 pm thurs... A low pressure system tracking from the deep
south... Will impact the area Saturday. Its expected to strengthen
off the coast Sat night into Sunday. Models continue to trend the
low becoming weaker and further away from the coast... Therefore
limiting the impacts. Winds will be n/ne winds 10-15kt sat... Then
becoming n/ne 10-15 kts Sunday. Seas will be 2-3 ft Saturday and
peaking 4 ft... North of ocracoke on Sunday.

Sunday night into Tuesday... Another weak low pressure system is
expected to move along SE coast... But there remains uncertainty with
the timing. At this time... Winds will be ne/e 10-20 kts with seas of
2-3 ft Sunday night becoming s/sw 10-15 kts and increasing 3-4 ft
Monday afternoon. Guidance has the low lifting late Monday night
into Tuesday... Have kept seas 2-4 ft. Confidence remains low for the
potential for sac... But think it should remain below.

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ctc
near term... Ctc/jme
short term... Ctc
long term... Bm
aviation... Jme/bm
marine... Ctc/jme/bm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41036 - Onslow Bay Outer, NC 31 mi40 min NE 3.9 G 3.9 52°F 60°F2 ft1019.7 hPa (+0.5)35°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi42 min E 2.9 G 4.1 52°F 57°F1018.5 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 33 mi50 min 55°F1 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 34 mi90 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 49°F 55°F1018.9 hPa (-0.0)
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 38 mi105 min Calm 48°F 1018 hPa41°F
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 38 mi42 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 46°F 53°F1018.8 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi90 min E 5.8 G 7.8 51°F 65°F1019.7 hPa (-0.4)
WLON7 39 mi42 min 45°F 52°F1019 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 44 mi90 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 48°F 1019.2 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville, New River, Marine Corps Air Station, NC13 mi34 minN 010.00 miFair42°F37°F82%1019.8 hPa
Swansboro, Bogue Field, Marine Corps Auxiliary Landing Field, NC19 mi33 minNE 310.00 miA Few Clouds41°F36°F82%1020.2 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW5SW4W6SW4W3SW3W5W4N7N7N7N4NE7NE7N8N43N53E3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW7SW7W7W6W7NW8NW8W6W7W7NW6W5W4W6NW7NW6NW8NW7W6
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW9S9S8S10
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Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
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Thu -- 03:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:16 AM EST     3.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:42 AM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:33 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:25 PM EST     2.45 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:27 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.91.62.32.93.13.12.721.30.70.30.30.511.62.12.42.42.11.60.90.3-00

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:29 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:03 AM EST     4.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:24 AM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:34 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:12 PM EST     3.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:09 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.52.63.64.34.54.33.62.71.60.80.40.50.91.72.53.23.53.42.8210.3-0.10.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.