Saturday, May28, 2016 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sneads Ferry, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 8:17PM Saturday May 28, 2016 6:02 PM EDT (22:02 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 11:07AM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 316 Pm Edt Sat May 28 2016
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Sun..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft early...subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Sun night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming S 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft...except 2 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop... Diminishing to light chop after midnight. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft...except 2 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop...diminishing to flat after midnight. A chance of showers.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop...diminishing to flat. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sneads Ferry, NC
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location: 34.54, -77.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 281916
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport/morehead city nc
316 pm edt Sat may 28 2016

Synopsis
Tropical depression two is forecast to make landfall along the
south carolina coast Sunday, then weaken to a depression by Sunday
night. The low will slowly drift northeast near the nc coast
Monday through mid week. A frontal boundary will approach the
region by next weekend.

Near term /through tonight/
As of 3 pm sat... Latest sfc analysis shows tropical depression two
about 225 miles ssw of CAPE fear. Latest radar imagery shows
scattered showers moving through southern forecast area... And
blossoming showers offshore. Still a challenging precip forecast
through the period. Adjusted previous pops based on latest radar
imagery and high res guidance. Looks like best precip chances will
be late tonight, and lowered pops through 06z. Still looks like
the best chance will be across the southern tier becoming more
widespread late. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall possible
with pwat values around 2 inches. Mild temps overnight with skies
becoming mostly cloudy and SE flow. Lows in the upper 60s to lower
70s.

Short term /Sunday/
As of 3 pm sat... Tropical depression two is forecast to make
landfall as a weak tropical storm along the sc coast Sunday, then
weaken back to a depression. Plentiful moisture will continue to
advect into the region with deep warm cloud layer and pwat values
around 2 inches. Scattered to numerous showers expected across the
area. Will maintain likely pops. Periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall will be possible across the area. Will continue sc
thunderstorm mention, though widespread cloud cover should limit
instability. However cannot rule out an isolated tornado threat
with low topped convection, mainly along the coast, given the
position of the cyclone. Low level thickness values and widespread
clouds/precip support highs in the low/mid 80s.

Long term /Sunday night through Saturday/
As of 315 pm sat... The remnants of bonnie will drift slowly
northeastward near the coast of sc on Sun night and then along the
nc coast Mon through tue. Periods of locally heavy rainfall and
increased rip current threat are main impacts we will see from
this system.

Sunday night/Monday... Deep tropical moisture will continue to
feed north northwest on the east side of the tropical system.

This will lead to bouts of numerous shra and isold to scattered
tsra... And cont likely pops thru Monday. Given pw's around 2
inches, which is near 2 s.D. Above climo, will see locally very
heavy rainfall at times poor drainage type flooding and ponding of
water on roads possible. Will be quite uncomfortably muggy with
highs in the 80s and lows in the low 70s.

Monday night and Tuesday... Decent coverage of shra and a few tsra
will continue as the remnant low continues to drift along the nc
coast. Will cont likely to high chance pops with again locally
heavy rainfall possible. Best chances for rain appear to be
eastern half of the fa this period along and northeast of the low
track. Despite the low near the area winds will remain rather
light with fcst slp to remain above 1000 mb. Little temp change
with all the moisture in the area with highs again 80-85 and lows
near 70.

Tuesday night through Saturday... As the low slowly moves east and
northeast away from the area coverage of shra will diminish and
pattern will become more summery with typical diurnal convection
across the interior with lesser chances along the beaches. Temps
will remain above climo with heights/thicknesses above average
with highs well into the 80s and lows in the upper 60s to near 70.

A frontal system will slowly approach by the weekend with perhaps
a better coverage of convection by Sat and have 30-40 pops as a
result.

Aviation /18z Saturday through Thursday/
Short term /through Sunday/...

as of 130 pm sat...VFR conditions expected through early Sunday
morning when ceilings will drop to MVFR levels. Partly to mostly
cloudy skies across the region with cloud bases ranging from 3500
to 5000 feet with light E wind. Showers and a few thunderstorms
are possible this afternoon and evening and will become more
numerous overnight and for Sunday. There will likely be a period
after midnight where ceilings drop to MVFR levels and this should
last until mid morning Sunday.

Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...

as of 315 pm sat... Remnant tropical low will drift along and near
the nc coast through Tuesday. Scattered to numerous showers
expected thru early next week as long as the low is in vicinity.

These showers will lead to periods of MVFR/ifr, especially thru
tue. With low levels very moist could also have some light
fog/lower stratus develop during the late night/early morning
hours as winds expected to be very light.

Marine
Short term /through Sunday/...

as of 3 pm sat... Latest obs show pred easterly winds 10-15kt and
seas 2-4ft north of oregon inlet and 4-6ft south. Will go ahead
and initialize with SCA for waters south of oregon inlet. Seas
have built to 4-6 feet this afternoon with increasing swell energy
from distant tropical depression two combined with persistent
onshore flow. TD 2 is forecast to make landfall along the sc coast
Sunday... Tightening the gradient a bit across the nc waters. Se
winds 10-20kt overnight into Sunday. Think seas south of ocracoke
will drop below 6ft late Sunday morning and early
afternoon... Though will likely remain elevated across the central
waters through the period.

Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...

as of 315 pm sat... Predominant SE to S winds 10 to 15 kts with
some gusts 15 to 20 kts through Monday with weak tropical system s
of area. As the weakening low drifts NE near the nc coast Mon into
tue will see winds grad become more E then eventually NE behind
the slowly exiting system. Uncertainty remains however as to
timing of when the low will pass the waters, therefore winds are
subject to change. It does appear however that winds will remain
sub SCA as system will be quite weak. Wavewatch and swan continue
to show marginal 6 foot seas outer central and southern waters sun
night into mon, otherwise mainly 3 to 5 feet. By Tue seas primarily
2-4 feet.

Hydrology
As of 315 pm sat... Periods of heavy rain will develop by Sunday due
to the tropical system approaching the area. Heaviest rain at this
time looks to fall Sunday night through Monday, though scattered
to numerous showers will continue through Tuesday as the low
slowly drifts along and near the E nc coast through mid week.

Localized flooding of poor drainage areas and ponding of water on
roads are possible, along with eventual river rises.

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz095-
103-104.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Monday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm edt Sunday for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Cqd/tl
near term... Cqd
short term... Cqd
long term... Rf/tl
aviation... Tl/sgk
marine... Cqd/tl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 31 mi55 min ENE 14 G 19 76°F 75°F1019.8 hPa
41159 31 mi38 min 75°F6 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi33 min ENE 15 G 16 76°F 78°F1018.4 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 34 mi55 min E 14 G 19 76°F 75°F1019.8 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 34 mi57 min 75°F5 ft
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 38 mi78 min E 9.9 77°F 1019 hPa72°F
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 38 mi33 min E 8 G 13 79°F 74°F1019.2 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi55 min ENE 12 G 18 76°F 75°F1018.7 hPa
WLON7 39 mi33 min 80°F 75°F1019.1 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 44 mi63 min NE 14 G 15 76°F 1019.9 hPa (-1.1)70°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville, New River, Marine Corps Air Station, NC13 mi67 minESE 1110.00 miFair83°F66°F59%1019.7 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC19 mi66 minE 1010.00 miFair84°F68°F59%1020.5 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE10SE7SE6E5SE5E5NE3N5N4N3N3CalmCalmE3E7E7SE10SE11SE11E12
G18
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1 day agoS11S8S8S4S5CalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmE4E3E5E8SE7SE9SE10SE12SE12SE10
2 days agoS10
G17
S10S6S4S6S5CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmSW6SW7SW10
G15
W10S7S7S12S14S11S12

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:32 AM EDT     3.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:07 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:11 PM EDT     2.59 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:07 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.23.22.92.31.60.90.30.10.20.61.21.92.42.62.52.11.610.50.30.40.81.42.2

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:19 AM EDT     4.65 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:49 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:58 PM EDT     3.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:49 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.64.543.1210.30.20.51.122.93.53.73.52.92.11.20.60.50.81.42.33.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.