Monday, February27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sneads Ferry, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 6:05PM Monday February 27, 2017 3:50 AM EST (08:50 UTC) Moonrise 7:22AMMoonset 7:22PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 335 Am Est Mon Feb 27 2017
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop...diminishing to light chop late. A slight chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft...except 3 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop... Increasing to choppy after midnight. A slight chance of showers.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy... Increasing to rough in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft... Subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N 20 to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop... Increasing to rough. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sneads Ferry, NC
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location: 34.54, -77.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 270531
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport/morehead city nc
1231 am est Mon feb 27 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will move offshore Monday and remain over the
western atlantic through Wednesday. A cold front will cross the
region Thursday morning. High pressure will build in behind the
front through next weekend.

Near term /until 6 am this morning/
As of 1230 am mon... Current forecast in good shape; only minor
tweak to t grid. High pressure will crest over the area
tonight. Temps have fallen into the 30s inland to 40s along the
coast with light/calm winds allowing for excellent radiational
cooling. Lows expected to bottom out 28-32 away from the
beaches. Given the above normal temps the past few weeks, the
"growing season" has likely begun earlier than normal. Sensitive
vegetation could be vulnerable to the freezing conditions. Some
cirrus may begin to stream through late as high shifts eastward
and shortwave approaches from the west.

Short term /6 am this morning through 6 pm Tuesday/
As of 3 pm sun... High will be settled offshore on Monday
allowing for WAA regime. Temps will climb into the 65-70 degree
range for highs with 60-65 on the obx. Increasing convergence on
the coast expected as winds remain NE on pamlico sound but veer
to SE over the coastal waters. This will promote some iso/sct
shower development along the coastal counties with best chances
along the obx. Have added 20-30 pops to account for this. Once
away from the coast td's drop dramatically so not expecting any
precip across the interior. Otherwise, increasing mid and high
clouds expected through the day Monday.

Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/
As of 245 pm Sunday... Warm but unsettled weather is expected
across the region through early Thursday followed by a period of
dry and seasonably cool weather Friday and Saturday and dry and
warmer conditions next Sunday. The models continue to have
differences and lack of run to run consistency for the Monday
night through Tuesday night period making for a low confidence
forecast regarding precipitation chances and amounts. There is
much higher confidence that temperatures will be above normal
through Wednesday.

Monday night through Tuesday night... A warm front like feature
will move north across the area Monday in response to high
pressure shifting off of the coast with southerly flow then
becoming established across the area through mid week. This
will result in warm temperatures with lows in the 50s Monday
night, highs in the 70s Tuesday and lows in the 60s Tuesday
night. The precipitation forecast is more problematic though as
guidance has not yet arrived on a consensus on timing, location
and amounts of precipitation during this period. Thus best
course of action was to broadbrush 20% pops and forecast very
light QPF amounts until guidance arrives at a better resolution.

Wednesday... Guidance is good agreement that record warmth will
be possible with highs in the 80s as brisk southerly flow
prevails. Not expecting any significant precipitation although
an isolated shower can't be ruled out. Some fire weather
concerns due to the warmth and expected strong winds but
forecast relative humidities are in the mid 50s which is well
above red flag criteria.

Wednesday night through Thursday night... A strong cold front
will move across the region late Wednesday night or Thursday
morning. The cmc was a compromise between the faster GFS and
slower ECMWF models and will place the front along the coast
around 12z Thursday. This would bring the best chance of rain to
the area Wednesday night with drying and slightly cooler
conditions expected Thursday afternoon. Mild lows in the 50s are
expected Wednesday night and continued mild but cooler Thursday
with highs in the mid 60s. Colder air begins to be felt
Thursday night with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Friday through Sunday... The models are actually in better
agreement during this period then in the early portion of the
medium range forecast. A dry secondary cold cold front will
cross the area Friday with highs 55 to 60 expected then high
pressure with seasonably cool and dry air will prevail across
the region through Saturday night. Low temperatures Friday
night are forecast to reach the lower to mid 30s and this could
be a concern for any sensitive vegetation that may have
prematurely started due to the abnormal warmth of the past
couple of weeks. Highs Saturday will be in the 50s. And lows
Sunday night in the mid to upper 30s. Dry weather is forecast to
continue Sunday but with some moderation in temperatures into
the 60s as the high center moves offshore and return SW flow
redevelops across the area.

Aviation /06z Monday through Friday/
Short term /through 18z Monday/...

as of 1230 pm Sunday... High confidence inVFR conditions through
the TAF period. A dry airmass is over the area, inhibiting fog
development and providing mostly clear skies. High clouds will
start to filter in by morning. Some low stratus clouds will
move in from the coastal waters during the afternoon and effect
both kewn/koaj... Clouds will remain above 3kft. The surface
ridge will shift off the DELMARVA peninsula on later today,
allowing winds to become southeast for most of the day.

Long term /Monday night through Friday/...

as of 245 pm sun... Due to uncertainties regarding the
precipitation forecast, the aviation medium range outlook is a
low confidence forecast through Tuesday night although periods
of subVFR conditions are possible especially in showers. The
next best chance of rain and subVFR conditions will occur
Wednesday night as a cold front moves through the area.VFR
conditions are expected from Thursday afternoon through Friday
as high pressure builds into the area.

Marine
Short term /through Monday/...

as of 1230 pm sun... Latest buoy obs are showing light and
variable winds over the coastal waters and seas 2-3 ft. High
pressure will crest over the waters tonight. Variable winds
generally around 10 kt or less across the waters with seas 2-4
feet late this evening. High will shift offshore on Monday with
weak coastal trough developing. Winds remain NE most of the day
across the pamlico sound though veer SE across the outer waters
in vcnty of the gulf stream. This will promote sct showers by
late morning through afternoon across the waters and pamlico
sound. Seas will remain in the 2-4 foot range though the day mon
with winds 5-15 kt.

Long term /Monday night through Friday/...

as of 245 pm sun... Rough marine conditions with gusty winds and
elevated seas are expected for much of the period. Moderate
se/s flow of 15 to 20 kt is expected through Tuesday. There is
some potential for seas to reach 6 ft late Tuesday but the wave
models were consistent in indicating 3-5 ft seas. The southerly
winds increase to 20 to 25 kt Tuesday night and 25 to 30 kt
/with a low end gale possible/ Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday
night with seas of 7 to 11 ft. Winds shift to NW 15 to 20 kt
behind the front Thursday morning and diminish to w/nw 10 to 15
kt Thu afternoon and night behind the initial cold front. A
secondary cold front is forecast to cross the waters Friday
afternoon with the flow becoming NW and increasing to 20 to 25
kt. Seas will briefly subside below 6 ft Thursday night then
build back to 4 to 7 ft Friday afternoon.

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tl
near term... Sk/tl/bm
short term... Tl
long term... Jme/eh
aviation... Dag/jme/bm
marine... Jme/sk/tl/bm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 31 mi43 min ENE 5.8 G 7.8 57°F 1027.8 hPa
41159 31 mi38 min 65°F3 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi51 min NNW 5.1 G 6 47°F 59°F1026 hPa (+0.0)
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 34 mi43 min NNE 3.9 G 5.8 54°F 58°F1027 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 34 mi52 min 58°F2 ft
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 38 mi66 min N 1 41°F 1026 hPa38°F
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 38 mi51 min NE 4.1 G 4.1 47°F 61°F1026.8 hPa (+0.4)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi43 min ENE 5.8 G 9.7 57°F 61°F1026.5 hPa
WLON7 39 mi51 min 40°F 59°F1027 hPa (+0.0)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 44 mi51 min ENE 6 G 8 54°F 1027.6 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC13 mi55 minN 010.00 miFair34°F33°F97%1027.8 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC19 mi54 minNE 310.00 miFair41°F30°F67%1028.3 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11NW10NW6NW10N11N11N10NW9NW6NW6NW9NW10W8W8W4CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW35SW10S12
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2 days agoN3CalmNE4N4NE3E4E8E46SE6SE9SE9SE8SE7SE7SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
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Mon -- 01:39 AM EST     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:21 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:56 AM EST     3.39 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:11 PM EST     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:03 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:22 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:16 PM EST     3.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.1-0.4-0.4-0.10.71.62.63.23.43.12.51.60.6-0.1-0.4-0.30.31.122.83.132.51.7

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
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Mon -- 01:21 AM EST     -0.72 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:22 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:43 AM EST     4.85 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:53 PM EST     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:04 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:22 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:03 PM EST     4.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-0.7-0.60.11.32.63.94.74.84.33.21.80.5-0.4-0.7-0.30.61.93.24.14.54.23.32

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.