Sunday, August2, 2015 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sneads Ferry, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.
1/11/2015 - Updated Marine Zones because NOAA split some zones on the East Coast. You may need to edit or your forecast section.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 8:12PM Sunday August 2, 2015 10:34 PM EDT (02:34 UTC) Moonrise 8:44PMMoonset 7:46AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 938 Pm Edt Sun Aug 2 2015
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms. A chance of showers and tstms late.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Showers and tstms likely...mainly in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Showers and tstms likely...mainly in the evening.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms...mainly in the morning.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop...increasing to choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sneads Ferry, NC
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location: 34.54, -77.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 030156
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport/morehead city nc
956 pm edt Sun aug 2 2015

Synopsis
A weak stationary boundary will linger along the coast of the
southeastern united states tonight through Tuesday. Another
frontal system will affect the area late week into the weekend.

Near term /tonight/
As of 10 pm Sunday... Showers and thunderstorms are lingering
along a stalled front draped across the northern tier of the
cwa... From the albemarle to the south of raleigh. With a mid/upper
level trough across the area... This precipitation activity may
linger for the next hour or two given sufficient forcing aloft.

Otherwise... A quiet couple hours across eastern nc. Precipitation
to the south... Off of CAPE fear continues to blossom this evening
while heading north. Anticipate this activity... Associated with
sfc low... To move inland across the crystal coast by the early
morning hours. Lows still projected to be around 70 inland to
mid/upper 70s along the beaches.

Previous discussion... Dewpoints have already rebounded
substantially this evening with mostly sw/ssw synoptic flow taking
over across eastern nc. Although dewpoints have rebounded, expect
enough boundary layer mixing to inhibit fog development overnight.

Rather than completely remove from forecast, have minimized vsbys
no less than 5 miles in patchy fog mainly for inland counties away
from the coast/sounds. Lows overnight will range around 70 well
inland to the mid/upper 70s near the coast.

Short term /6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday/
As of 245 pm Sunday... A mid-level trough will dig south and
sharpen on Monday as surface low pressure forms on stalled frontal
boundary to our south. This will serve to draw deep axis of
moisture... Currently over the gulf stream... Back toward the coast.

This will lead to a tight gradient of moisture across our CWA with
showers and embedded thunderstorms near the coast... But a good
amount of sunshine inland. Will have likely pops along the
immediate coast tapering quickly to slight chc over the northern
third of the cwa. Have followed suit with temperatures with
low/mid 80s coast with upper 80s/lower 90s over northern sections.

Overall instability is rather limited and will likely just see
showers with a few embedded thunderstorms starting mid to late
morning on Monday.

Long term /Monday night through Sunday/
As of 240 pm sun... Gfs/ecmwf continue to trend wetter along the
coast Mon night as moisture increases and a weak low lifts ne
along remnant frontal boundary. Deep inland looks mostly dry as
best moisture stays along the coast. Highs Mon lower 90s inland to
80s cst with 70s areas wide Mon night.

Main story for the Tue and Wed will be the heat as typical
summertime pattern re-develops with high pressure offshore and
strengthening trough inland. Heights build through mid week... With
low level thickness values and 850mb temps supporting highs in the
upper 80s/low 90s along the coast... And mid 90s/possibly a few
upper 90s inland. Fcst dewpts still keep apparent temps below 105
but will be close to heat advisory. Isolated/widely sct pops tue
and Wed with best chc cst early morning and inland during aftn and
evening.

The next frontal system will approach the region late week with
increasing widespread precip chances. Upper trough develops to
the west with a weak cold front approaching from the nw. Still
some uncertainty on exact timing and placement of the front... But
models have boundary stalling over the area or just north... With
an area of low pressure moving along it... Finally pushing through
the area sat. Will cont chance pops through the period. Will
remain muggy however temps wont be quite as hot with mainly upr
80s and lower 90s. Looks like it starts to dry out Sun with n/ne
flow and front moving off the coast.

Aviation /02z Monday through Friday/
Short term /through 00z Tuesday/...

as of 8 pm Sunday... PredominantlyVFR conditions expected through
the TAF period. Boundary layer mixing and high clouds possibly
impacting radiational cooling will limit fog potential overnight
and have limited vsbys no less than 5 miles between 08-12z
tonight. Introduced vcsh for ewn/oaj Monday morning as a weak
boundary off the coast drifts northwest into the eastern portions
of eastern nc, then vcts with broken cumulus around 5 kft by early
afternoon for ewn/oaj where a few thunderstorms may impact area
tafs. Kept vcsh for iso/pgv mainly in the afternoon as a decent
gradient will exist from the coast to far inland TAF sites, though
better breaks in clouds could lead to greater instability and thus
thunderstorms, though confidence in vcts is too low to include in
tafs at this time for iso/pgv.

Long term /Monday night through Friday/...

as of 240 pm sun... PredVFR conditions expected through the
period. Patchy fog/stratus possible each morning... Though low lvl
sw flow will limit the threat. The next frontal system will impact
the region Fri with better precip coverage and possible sub-vfr
conditions.

Marine
Short term /through Monday/...

as of 10 pm Sunday... No sig changes needed to this update.

Previous discussion... Latest surface and buoy data indicate ssw
winds 10-20 kt with seas 2-4 ft. As the gradient tightens Monday
between high pressure well to the east and approaching surface
low, may see periods of 15 to 20 knot winds over the central and
southern waters and pamlico sound. Latest local swan/nwps model
showing seas getting to 5 feet with a few areas of 6 feet well
offshore Monday afternoon, though will cap at 5 feet for now as
southwest flow above 25 kt is generally needed to yield 6 ft seas.

Long term /Monday night through Friday/...

as of 240 pm sun... Ssw winds expected at 10 to 20 kts through the
fcst period as trf conts inland with high pressure offshore.

Persistent gusty winds will keep seas elevated espcly over the
outer waters from hat S where will be mainly 5 to 6 ft Tue into
wed. A weak boundary will drop into the northern waters wed... And
could see temp wind shift. The next frontal system will approach
the waters Thursday night. There is still some uncertainty
regarding the timing and placement of the front. Will maintain ssw
flow and seas 3-6ft through fri... Though boundary could move into
the waters and stall with veering winds.

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ctc
near term... Dag/lep
short term... Ctc
long term... Cqd
aviation... Cqd/dag
marine... Cqd/dag/lep


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi34 min S 16 G 17 81°F 86°F1013.1 hPa (-0.3)
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 33 mi45 min 83°F4 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 34 mi86 min S 14 G 18 81°F 83°F1013.7 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 38 mi49 min S 6 82°F 1013 hPa76°F
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 38 mi34 min SSW 11 G 17 80°F 83°F1013.6 hPa (-0.0)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi34 min SSW 16 G 19 77°F 82°F
WLON7 39 mi34 min 80°F 89°F1013.5 hPa (+0.0)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 44 mi34 min SW 12 G 15 79°F 1014 hPa (-0.0)73°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville, New River, Marine Corps Air Station, NC13 mi38 minN 010.00 miFair77°F72°F85%1014.2 hPa
Swansboro, Bogue Field, Marine Corps Auxiliary Landing Field, NC19 mi37 minSSW 1310.00 miFair81°F72°F74%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3SW4--SW3SW3SW3------NW5NW4--35E6SW4S7SW7S8S9S10S8----
1 day ago--S3------NW3----SW3--NW3SE33SW4--SE5E6SW7S12S7S7S6S4SW3
2 days ago--SW3--W3W5--W3S3----NW4N10N8NE34N6NW5NW5--S6S9--W3--

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
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Sun -- 03:37 AM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:38 AM EDT     3.40 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:43 PM EDT     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:02 PM EDT     3.95 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.31.20.3-0.3-0.30.10.91.92.83.33.432.21.20.3-0.3-0.4-00.81.92.93.73.93.7

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
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Sun -- 03:18 AM EDT     -0.58 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:25 AM EDT     4.85 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:25 PM EDT     -0.64 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:49 PM EDT     5.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.91.30.1-0.5-0.40.31.634.24.84.742.81.30.1-0.6-0.50.21.534.45.45.65.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.