Saturday, November22, 2014 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sneads Ferry, NC

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6/10/2014 - Marine Zones updated. Some zones have changed. Edit your Marine Forecast section to check.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:02PM Saturday November 22, 2014 7:35 PM EST (00:35 UTC) Moonrise 6:45AMMoonset 5:29PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 703 Pm Est Sat Nov 22 2014
.gale watch in effect from Sunday evening through Monday morning...
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. NEar shore...seas 1 ft...then around 2 ft after midnight. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sun..SE winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft...building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop...increasing to rough in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the morning...then showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft...building to 9 to 12 ft after midnight. NEar shore...seas 7 to 10 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Mon..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft... Subsiding to 7 to 9 ft in the afternoon. NEar shore...seas 6 to 9 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A chance of showers.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft... Subsiding to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop... Increasing to choppy after midnight. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 20 to 25 kt...diminishing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough... Diminishing to choppy. Showers likely...then a chance of showers.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ100 703 Pm Est Sat Nov 22 2014
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. High pressure will move offshore tonight. A warm front will lift north through the region Sunday and Sunday night. A cold front will approach from the west Monday and push offshore by early Tuesday. Low pressure will develop along the front late Tuesday night and move northeast offshore of the coast Wednesday. The low will depart to the northeast Wednesday night with high pressure building over the region late in the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sneads Ferry, NC
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location: 34.54, -77.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 222350
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport/morehead city nc
650 pm est Sat nov 22 2014

Synopsis
High pressure will move offshore tonight. A warm front will lift
north through the region Sunday and Sunday night. A cold front
will approach from the west Monday and push offshore by early
Tuesday. Low pressure will develop along the front late Tuesday
night and move northeast offshore of the coast Wednesday. The low
will depart to the northeast Wednesday night with high pressure
building over the region late in the week.

Near term /through Sunday/
As of 645 pm Saturday... Only changes made to init t/td. Quiet
weather will cont as the strong high overhead this afternoon
slides offshore. Skies will remain clr this evening then overnight expect
will see increasing clouds as moisture increases both at low lvls
and aloft. Good radiational cooling thru the evening with lows
inland dropping into the 30s. Overnight winds become onshore and
clouds increase may see temps rise a bit escply cst.

Short term /Sunday night through 6 pm Sunday/
As of 210 pm Saturday... Strong warm/moist advection expected
across the region Sunday as a warm front moves in during the aftn.

Mdls show precip wtr values surging from less than 1 inch early to
1.75 inches late. Strong isent lift will also overspread the area and
coupled with the increasing moisture will lead to showers
developing from N to S in the aftn. Cont prev fcst of likely to
cat pops far S to chc far N late. Shear and helicity values become
impressive late... However mdls keep sfc based instab S of the region
thru Sun aftn and this shld limit threat for any svr weather til
mainly after 00z. Did keep isold tsra in SRN tier late as some
elevated instab likely. Increasing s/se winds will lead to milder
temps with mid to upr 60s S and low to mid 60s n.

Long term /Sunday night through Saturday/
As of 1245 pm sat... Large upper trough over the central part of the
country with lots of energy rotating around it will make for an
active extended term. Trough will continue to dig into the southern
tier states through mid week then lift through the southeast and mid
atlantic through the end of the week. ECMWF is sharper... Deeper and
faster with this upper trough than the gfsens. This leads to some
small timing differences with the surface features on bringing the
cold front through Tuesday... And more significant differences on
Wednesday with wave that will form on the front. ECMWF develops a
deeper low closer to the coast with stronger surface winds. Will
trend toward stronger solution... But with low confidence.

Complicated system will move into area Sunday night from the gulf
coast region. Good speed and directional shear on the forecast
soundings. Deep layer moisture and pws above 1.5 inches. Instability
increasing during the night and most of the area is in a slight
risk. Continued strong southerly flow during the day on Monday will
kick afternoon high temperatures well into the 70s. Next piece of
energy will approach Monday night... Pushing a cold front through
eastern north carolina during the morning hours Tuesday. Strong
upper level energy will swing through the base of the upper trough.

Wave will form on the surface front in the gulf Tuesday and will
move up the east coast during the night Tuesday night. Cross
sections showing deep layer moisture and good lift. As
mentioned... Models differ in the strength and location of this wave.

It will lift north of the area lat Wednesday with a reinforcing
surge coming through late Thursday. Models trending drier with this
system than in previous runs. High pressure will build in Friday.

Aviation /00z Sunday through Thursday/
Short term /through Sunday/...

as of 640 pm Saturday... KeptVFR conds in tafs through 18z sun
then MVFR cigs/vsbys with wdsprd shra isold tsra expected acrs
enc. S-se winds incr as well with wind gusts in the 15-20 kt range
aft 18z.

High confidence inVFR conditions thru late tonight as high
pressure with a dry airmass controls the weather. Late tonight the
models are suggesting a coastal trough will be lifting onshore
with increasing low lvl moisture... Cant rule out some lower cigs
and vsbys but will keepVFR for now. As warm front lifts into the
region Sunday widespread shra will overspread the region from N to
s in the aftn. CIGS and vsbys will lower to subVFR during the
aftn and s/se winds will become gusty as well.

Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...

as of 1254 pm sat... MVFR/ifr conditions likely Sunday night into
Monday as a warm front lifts through the area. Isolated
thunderstorms and gusty winds can be expected. There will be a
continued chance of rain with subVFR conditions possible in the
precipitation Monday and Tuesday. A strong low pressure will move up
the coast Tuesday night with ifr conditions likely... In addition to
rain and strong winds.

Marine
Short term /through Sunday/...

as of 645 pm Saturday... No changes. Good boating conditions will
cont tonight then rapidly go downhill Sunday. Strong high pres
overhead this aftn will shift offshore tonight. Light and variable
winds will become s/se 5 to 10 kts along the coast late. Seas will
be mainly in the 2 to 3 foot range overnight. A warm front will
lift N into ERN nc Sunday with s/se winds increasing... Espcly
during the aftn. Expect speeds to reach 15 to 20 kts N and 20 to
30 kts S by evening with seas building to 5 to 8 feet... Highest
outer SRN wtrs.

Long term /Sunday night through thu/...

as of 116 pm sat... Gale advisory will be in effect Sunday night as
tight gradient ahead of an approaching cold front kicks sustained
southerly winds up to 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots
possible... Building seas up to 12 to 13 feet... Mainly in the central
waters. Front expected to move through the north carolina coastal
waters Tuesday morning with gradient loosening behind it... Allowing
north and northwesterly flow to subside and seas to diminish below
small craft advisory criteria by Tuesday afternoon.

Strong low pressure will form on the front Tuesday night and move up
the coast... Tightening the gradient. Models differ on strength and
position of this low pressure so confidence is low on wind speed and
direction. For now am going with northerly flow 25 to 30 knots with
seas 10 to 12 feet Wednesday into Wednesday night as the low
pressure lifts north of the region. Improving conditions by Thursday
morning.

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for
amz130-135-150-152-154-156-158.

Synopsis... Rf
near term... Jac/rf
short term... Rf
long term... Cgg
aviation... Cgg/jac/rf
marine... Cgg/jac/rf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41036 - Onslow Bay Outer, NC 31 mi45 min ENE 14 G 18 59°F 69°F3 ft1028 hPa (-1.3)53°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi35 min ENE 11 G 13 56°F 60°F1028 hPa (-0.9)
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 33 mi25 min 60°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 34 mi35 min E 9.7 G 12 54°F 60°F1028.5 hPa (-0.9)
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 38 mi50 min ENE 5.1 54°F 1028 hPa50°F
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 38 mi35 min NE 4.1 G 6 48°F 53°F1028.2 hPa (-1.0)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi35 min E 14 G 16 58°F 69°F1028.4 hPa (-1.4)
WLON7 39 mi35 min 50°F 56°F1028.5 hPa (-0.8)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 44 mi35 min NNE 6 G 7 51°F 1028.9 hPa (-1.2)

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville, New River, Marine Corps Air Station, NC13 mi39 minN 010.00 miFair43°F37°F82%1029.2 hPa
BOGUE FIELD MCAL, NC19 mi38 minNE 310.00 miFair48°F41°F77%1029.8 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N7NE7NE4NE5N4N5N4CalmCalmN3N4CalmNE5E5E3SE3E4E5E5E5S4CalmCalm
1 day agoSW6SW7SW7SW6SW6W6W6W6NW8W3NW4NW4N11N17N15N12N10CalmCalmCalmN10N8N7N6
2 days agoSW5SW4SW4W4SW4SW4W5W6W4W7SW6SW5SW7SW11W10
G17
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G17
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Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
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Sat -- 12:28 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:56 AM EST     3.88 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:32 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 01:24 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:29 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:13 PM EST     2.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
000.41.22.13.13.73.93.632.11.20.40.10.10.51.222.62.92.82.41.60.8

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:10 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:43 AM EST     5.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:32 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 01:06 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:30 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:00 PM EST     4.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.10.10.923.44.65.45.5542.71.30.400.3123.13.94.23.93.120.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.