Thursday, April17, 2014 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sneads Ferry, NC

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Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 7:45PM Thursday April 17, 2014 11:05 PM EDT (03:05 UTC) Moonrise 9:22PMMoonset 7:10AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1040 Pm Edt Thu Apr 17 2014
.small craft advisory in effect through late Monday night...
Overnight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft... Except 3 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Fri..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft...except around 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft... Except 2 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Rain likely...mainly after midnight.
Sat..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft... Except 3 to 5 ft near shore. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. Rain likely.
Sat night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A chance of rain.
Sun..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A chance of rain in the morning.
Sun night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough.
Mon..N winds 20 to 25 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough... Diminishing to a moderate chop.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
AMZ100 1040 Pm Edt Thu Apr 17 2014
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. High pressure extending down the eastern seaboard will weaken and move northeast Friday. Low pressure will develop in the gulf of mexico Friday. The low will move off the southeast coast Saturday night. It will continue to slowly move northeast early next week. A cold front will move through Tuesday night. High pressure will build in Wednesday and Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sneads Ferry, NC
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location: 34.54, -77.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 180232
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport/morehead city nc
1032 pm edt Thu apr 17 2014

Synopsis
High pressure extending down the eastern seaboard will weaken and
move northeast Friday. Low pressure will develop in the gulf of
mexico Friday. The low will move off the southeast coast Saturday
night. It will continue to slowly move northeast early next week.

A cold front will move through Tuesday night. High pressure will
build in Wednesday and Thursday.

Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/
As of 1000 pm thu... No sig changes. Tweaked overnight mins
slightly to nr 40 well inland and mid to upr 40s coast... Otrw init
for current conds. Models in very good agreement in the short
term. Narrow ridge of high pressure will continue to extend down
the eastern seaboard. Low pressure developing in the gulf of
mexico late tonight will begin to spread low level moisture into
the area. Low temps will range from lower 40s coastal plain to
lower 50s outer banks.

Short term /6 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday/
As of 330 pm thu... Moisture continues to increase. Models show
theta-e ridge building in from the east southeast. Isentropic lift
will increase as the low moves east northeast and expect light
rain to spread in during the afternoon over the southern counties
and adjacent coastal waters. Highs range from the upper 50s
northern outer banks to mid 60s southwest.

Long term /Friday night through Thursday/
As of 330 pm thu... Deep trof moving thru the gulf coast region
will cut off then move thru the deep south and off the SE coast.

This will set up a mainly cloudy and wet pattern over the forecast
area for much of the upcoming weekend.

Rain will begin to spread into eastern nc as an area of isentropic
and deep moisture approaches from the south Fri night well ahead of
the main upper cutoff low. Have ramped up pops to likely over all
but far northern areas (which is on the northern fringes of the main
precip area) later Fri night thru Saturday morning. There are still
model differences in the northern extent of precip shield
particularly with the drier NAM solution so pops may need to be
adjusted as details can be further defined with later model runs.

Temps will cool into the upper 40s inland to low to mid 50s coast
Friday evening before leveling or rising toward Saturday morning.

Temperatures may struggle to reach into the low to mid 60s Saturday
depending on how much precip overspreads the area.

The upper low gradually moves off the SE coast and into the western
atlantic during the latter half of the weekend. This slower movement
lends itself to a cloudy and potential wet Sunday particularly for
coastal areas. The forecast will show a gradual decrease in pops
from NW to SE from late Saturday thru Sunday night again in
deference to the drier NAM solution but gut feeling is that cloudier
cooler and wetter Sunday will occur given the overall more
pessimistic model trends. Again forecast details can be adjusted as
later model runs come into more alignment.

There may be a sharp gradient of rainfall from north to south but
if the wetter models solutions hold, rainfall amounts cud exceed an
inch or more over southern areas this weekend.

There is decent model agreement for clearing skies and temperatures
at more seasonable levels early next week. Milder low level SW flow
will increase ahead of an upper trof approaching from the NW Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Will cap pops at slight chance for this forecast
period for now given the lack of moist inflow given mid level wnw
flow. Midweek weather looks dry and seasonable as upper ridge builds
toward the east coast.

Aviation /03z Friday through Tuesday/
Short term /tonight & fri/
as of 7 pm thu...VFR through the short term. Gusty northeast
winds will diminish quickly this evening then less than 10 knots
overnight. Mostly clear this evening but increasing low level
moisture forecast after midnight and continuing during the day
Friday. Ceilings developing in the predawn hours Friday around 5
kft. Some light rain possible in the afternoon Friday at southern
terminals oaj and ewn... With iso and pgv remaining dry. Northeast
winds during the day remaining around 10 knots.

Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...

as of 330 pm thu... As rain spreads NE into the area Fri night
into Sat expect reduced flight categories espcly SRN tier where
best cvrg of rain expected. As low pres drifts further offshore to
the SE Sunday, very gradual improvement expected with mainlyVFR
returning by late Sunday into Monday.

Marine
Short term /tonight & fri/
as of 1000 pm thu... Main change to extend SCA for albemarle and
alligator river overnight until 4 am. Increased seas slightly nrn
waters. Models remain in very good agreement in the short term.

Northeast flow continues in between high pressure extending down
the eastern seaboard and a stationary front over the offshore
waters. Small craft advisories will continue through early next
week for the coastal waters.

Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...

as of 330 pm thu... Strong high pres extending into the carolinas
fri night will maintain nne winds of 15 to 25 kts near the cst. As
low pres slides ene to the S Sat into Sun expect the gusty nne
winds to cont poss gusting 25 to 30 kts outer waters. The NE winds
will slowly diminish Mon as the low moves further offshore and
high pres weakens as it builds toward cst. The persistent NE flow
will keep seas elevated thru the period with SCA over the coastal
waters cont into Mon night. Seas will peak at 8 to 12 feet over
the outer waters late Sat thru Sunday. Then slowly subside to 4 to
6 ft Mon night.

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Friday for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Friday for amz130-131.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for amz150-152-154.

Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Tuesday for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Hsa
near term... Jac/hsa
short term... Hsa
long term... Btc
aviation... Jac/btc/hsa
marine... Jac/btc/hsa


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41109 5 mi54 min 58°F4 ft
41036 - Onslow Bay Outer, NC 31 mi46 min NNE 25 G 31 55°F 64°F1028.9 hPa48°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi36 min NNE 16 G 19 56°F 61°F1029.3 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 33 mi56 min 60°F6 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 34 mi66 min NE 18 G 21 58°F 60°F1029 hPa (+1.0)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi66 min NE 21 G 27 55°F 1028.7 hPa (+1.0)
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 38 mi36 min NNE 14 G 17 50°F 59°F1029.7 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 38 mi81 min NE 15 58°F 1028 hPa51°F
WLON7 39 mi36 min 56°F 1029.8 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 44 mi66 min N 21 G 24 52°F 1030.2 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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NW20
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville, New River, Marine Corps Air Station, NC13 mi70 minNE 12 miMostly Cloudy54°F44°F69%1030.8 hPa
BOGUE FIELD MCAL, NC19 mi69 minNNE 12 G 1910.00 miOvercast53°F41°F64%1031.1 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE12NE10N5N7N4N6N7N7N8N8NE10N14N11NE6NE12
G17
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NE12NE10NE10NE11NE12NE9NE12
1 day agoNW21
G27
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CalmN18N17
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2 days agoS6S10S14S13
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Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
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Thu -- 03:48 AM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:41 AM EDT     2.85 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:38 PM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:05 PM EDT     3.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.31.40.5-0-0.20.10.71.52.32.72.82.51.91.10.4-0.1-0.20.20.91.82.83.53.73.6

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
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Thu -- 03:30 AM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:28 AM EDT     4.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:20 PM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:52 PM EDT     5.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
31.60.4-0.2-0.20.31.32.43.4443.42.41.30.2-0.3-0.20.51.62.94.25.15.34.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.