Thursday, March5, 2015 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sneads Ferry, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
1/11/2015 - Updated Marine Zones because NOAA split some zones on the East Coast. You may need to edit or your forecast section. 6/17/2014 - I reported slow load times to NOAA and they quickly resolved the problem. Sorry for any inconvience. NOAA had some stuck processes on two servers. This was a problem on 5 to 10% of the requests.
6/10/2014 - Marine Zones updated. Some zones have changed. Edit your Marine Forecast section to check.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 6:10PM Thursday March 5, 2015 2:58 AM EST (07:58 UTC) Moonrise 6:18PMMoonset 6:19AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 130 Am Est Thu Mar 5 2015
.dense fog advisory in effect until 2 pm est this afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from this afternoon through Friday morning...
Rest of tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Areas of dense fog.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft... Except 3 to 5 ft near shore. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers in the morning...then rain in the afternoon. Areas of dense fog in the morning...then patchy fog in the afternoon.
Thu night..N winds 25 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft...building to 6 to 9 ft after midnight. NEar shore...seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough...increasing to very rough after midnight. Patchy fog in the evening. Rain in the evening...then rain likely with a chance of freezing rain after midnight.
Fri..N winds 25 to 30 kt...diminishing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft...except 2 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough... Diminishing to rough in the afternoon. Freezing rain...rain and sleet likely in the morning...then rain likely with a chance of freezing rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop...diminishing to flat in the afternoon.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming w. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop...diminishing to flat.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sneads Ferry, NC
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location: 34.54, -77.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 050642
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport/morehead city nc
142 am est Thu mar 5 2015

Synopsis
A cold front will move through eastern north carolina from the
northwest Thursday. High pressure will build in for the weekend.

Low pressure may affect the region early next week.

Near term /overnight/
As of 130 am thur... No changes except to add in mention of fog
across the rest of the coastal counties. The cold front currently
resides from the tidewater region of virginia west- southwest to
southeastern tennessee, slowly heading east towards eastern nc.

Warm advection on moist southwesterly flow continues tonight with
areas of fog possible near along the coastal sections of onslow
and carteret counties. Could also experience intermittent fog
along the outer banks depending on extent of boundary layer
mixing.Winds should remain mixed enough to prevent fog formation
overnight though with dewpoints in the low 60s, cannot completely
rule out brief fog just prior to sunrise if winds can sufficiently
diminish.

Models remain in close agreement in the short term. Mild temps
will persist overnight due to moist SW flow. Thursdays high temps
will occur early morning then fall most of the day as cold high
pressure build south over the region. Most of the area will be
dry overnight. The exception will be the northern coastal plain
through the albemarle sound counties and far northern outer banks
where low chance pops for rain will exist after midnight.

Short term /Thursday/
As of 330 pm wed... Little change to previous forecast. Models
close in timing on front dropping through from the north. The
west-east oriented front will move through the northern outer
banks & northern coastal plain shortly after daybreak reaching the
south coast early Thursday afternoon. Front will clear the entire
area by early evening. Pops will quickly increase to categorical
along and behind the front. Forecast soundings indicate precip
type will remain rain during the day. Temperatures will fall
during the day once the front passes and will retain appropriate
wording in the upcoming zone package.

Long term /tonight through Wednesday/
As of 300 pm Wednesday... Good model agreement Thu night with
wdsprd rain in wake of cold front... Gradually ending as a period
of sleet and freezing rain NW to SE during the night. Given warm
antecedent conditions... Only minor sleet accumulation expected
with a few hundredths of an inch of freezing rain accretion on
exposed surfaces... And some slick spots possible bridges and
overpasses.

Operational models continue to have some differences on
Friday... With NAM showing redevelopment of wdsrd light
rain/freezing rain over all of ERN nc during the day... While gfs
and ECMWF limit pcpn to coast with temps near or just above 32.

Given model differences... Continued previous low confidence fcst
of mainly chc pops across area with just 20% inland of hwy 17
after mid morning. Did increase pops along coast S of oregon inlet
to likely for rain with chc of freezing rain. Another few
hundredths of freezing rain psbl along coast.

Gusty n-ne winds expected along coast with CAA surge Thu night and
could see wind advsy criteria mainly for outer banks.

Clearing and colder conditions expected Fri night... Then high
pres with moderating temps Sunday into Monday. Models continue to
have differences with next psbl SRN stream system tue-wed... And
just covered with 20% chc of rain to indicate low fcst confidence
at this time.

Mav gdnc continues to have cold bias with min temps Thu night and
fri night and leaned to previous fcst which is line more with met
mos. Coldest temps expected Fri night with some mid 20s inland.

Temps moderating to near normal sun-wed.

Aviation /07z Thursday through Monday/
Short term /through 00z Friday/...

as of 130 am...VFR conditions early this evening may diminish to
ifr/lift CIGS overnight if winds sufficiently diminish allowing
areas of low stratus to develop and impact area TAF sites. Low
confidence however and left out of all except koaj at the moment.

Forecast soundings and MOS all agree on strong frontal inversion
with ifr CIGS thur behind strong colf front. Moisture will reside
behind the sfc cold front so could see rain change to fzra and ice
pellets from north to south across the terminals later Thursday
before ending. Winds switch abruptly north behind the front on
Thursday and become gusty... Lasting through Thursday night.

Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... Sub-vfr conditions expected Thursday
night with widespread rain in wake of cold front... With precip
changing to period of sleet and freezing rain before ending. MVFR
cigs likely to linger during the day Friday. Clearing expected
fri night withVFR prevailing rest of period. Gusty n-ne winds
15-25 mph in wake of front Thu night into Friday.

Marine
Short term /through Thursday/
as of 130 am thur... Only change was to add dense fog adv for rest
of the waters as winds have become lighter allowing for a
shallower mixed layer and therefore a reappearance of dense fog
across all areas. Think the fog will persist until the strong cold
front to the north moves through and switches winds to northerly.

Previous discussion... As of 1030 pm wed... Latest surface and
limited buoy data indicate ssw winds 15-25 kt with seas 3-5 ft
though 5-7 ft seas likely for the outer fringes of the central
coastal waters. Adjusted the marine dense fog advisory as most
locations have been void of fog issues/development this evening
under a strong southwesterly flow, except for the onslow/carteret
county coast where the dense fog advisory remains in effect until
Thursday morning. Based on latest model data will issue gale
warnings for all coastal waters... The albemarle and pamlico sounds
and alligator river... With small craft advisories for the
remaining rivers. Front will drop into the northern waters shortly
after daybreak Thursday and reach the southern waters in the early
afternoon. Winds will rapidly veer from southwest to north and
increase once the front passes.

Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... Gale warnings posted for all waters
except SCA srn rivers with high confidence in period of 25 to 35
kt winds across area Thu night into Fri morning due to strong caa
in wake of arctic front. Winds will gradually diminish Friday and
Friday night to less than 20 kt by Sat morning... But elevated seas
will linger outer waters into Sat morning. Lighter winds and seas
expected to prevail rest of weekend into Monday.

Leaned to local nwps for seas most of period. Heights peaking 8-12
ft late Thu night/early Friday.

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 10 am est
Friday for amz136-137.

Dense fog advisory until 10 am est this morning for amz130-131-
135-150-152-154.

Gale warning from 5 pm this afternoon to 10 am est Friday for
amz130-131-135-150-152-154-156-158.

Dense fog advisory until 2 pm est this afternoon for amz156-
158.

Synopsis... Dag/hsa
near term... Dag/hsa/tl
short term... Hsa
long term... Jbm
aviation... Jbm/dag/tl
marine... Jbm/dag/hsa/tl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi41 min SSW 21 G 25 67°F 1014.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 33 mi70 min 48°F4 ft
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 38 mi74 min SW 7 66°F 1015 hPa66°F
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 38 mi47 min SW 5.1 G 11 1014.5 hPa
WLON7 39 mi41 min 69°F 1014.4 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 44 mi59 min SW 9.9 G 13 60°F 1015.5 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville, New River, Marine Corps Air Station, NC13 mi63 minSW 15 G 2310.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F64°F82%1014.4 hPa
Swansboro, Bogue Field, Marine Corps Auxiliary Landing Field, NC19 mi62 minWSW 60.50 miSky Obscured57°F55°F96%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE6NE7NE9NE10NE8NE8NE8NE8NE7NE6NE5NE5E6E4CalmN4NW5N3SE3CalmCalmW6CalmSW5
2 days agoW5W5W6SW4SW5SW6W7W7W6NW84NW9N12N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE8NE8E8Calm

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
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Thu -- 01:09 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:18 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:33 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:22 AM EST     3.01 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:06 PM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 01:35 PM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:08 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:18 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:38 PM EST     2.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.1-0.1-00.51.222.732.92.51.810.3-0-0.10.30.91.72.42.82.82.51.91.1

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:51 AM EST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:19 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:34 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:09 AM EST     4.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:06 PM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 01:17 PM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:09 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:18 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:25 PM EST     4.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0-0.20.10.92.13.244.34.13.42.31.10.3-0.2-00.61.62.73.5443.42.41.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.