Sunday, September24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sneads Ferry, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 7:03PM Sunday September 24, 2017 8:15 AM EDT (12:15 UTC) Moonrise 10:03AMMoonset 9:02PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 425 Am Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late Thursday night...
Today..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt this afternoon. Seas around 10 ft, building to 12 ft this afternoon. NEar shore, seas 6 to 7 ft. Dominant period 14 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough this afternoon. A slight chance of showers late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 13 to 14 ft, except around 8 ft near shore. Dominant period 16 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough after midnight. A slight chance of showers.
Mon..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas around 14 ft, except around 9 ft near shore. Dominant period 15 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers.
Mon night..Tropical storm conditions possible. NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 15 ft, except around 8 ft near shore. Dominant period 15 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Tue..Tropical storm conditions possible. N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas around 14 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..Tropical storm conditions possible.
Wed..Tropical storm conditions possible.
Wed night..Tropical storm conditions possible.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 8 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A chance of showers in the morning.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sneads Ferry, NC
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location: 34.54, -77.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 241152
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
752 am edt Sun sep 24 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will extend into the area through Monday.

Hurricane maria is expected to track slowly off the east coast
early to mid next week. A cold front will cross the area late next
week. Please see the latest official forecasts from the national
hurricane center and local NWS offices.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 745 am Sunday... Despite a vail of high clouds, patchy fog
has formed again inland. Vsbys are mainly 5sm or higher but we
are seeing some lower visibility at greenville. Fog should burn
off by 9 am. A 1020 mb high over the northeast third of the
country will remain in control of our weather today. Highs will
be well into the 80s or just about the same as Saturday. We will
see periods of high clouds from time to time moving in from
maria. They will be thickest toward the coastal waters. The
pressure gradient between the high to our north and maria will
also be stronger today. This will lead to breezier conditions
which will be most pronounced along the coast, especially the
outer banks where gusts above 20 mph will be common.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday
As of 250 am Sunday...

as high pressure begins to retreat and maria moves northward
tonight, a continued onshore flow will increase cloud cover
especially along the coast. The bulk of the showers will remain
over the coastal waters but an isolated shower is possible along
the outer banks late. It will remain breezy especially along
the coast. While winds drop off inland it should be enough to
prevent fog formation.

Long term Monday through Saturday
As of 4 am Sunday... The primary forecast concern through most of
the long term will be impacts associated with hurricane maria.

Maria will slowly lift north off the southeast coast Monday and
Monday night with high pressure centered to the north limiting
it forward progression through mid week. Guidance stalls maria
off the nc coast Tuesday through Thursday before an approaching
upper level trough and attendant cold front finally push maria
to the east sometime Thursday.

There remains significant spread in the models with both the
track, especially with how close maria gets to the nc coast
before stalling, and timing with this system and confidence
remains low with the degree of impacts maria will bring.

However, the slow moving nature of this system will prolong and
possibly enhance the impacts that eastern nc does receive. At
this time, the greatest impacts are expected to be associated
with the large surf impacting the coast and significant beach
erosion is likely with ocean overwash probable in typically
prone areas around times of high tide beginning Tuesday and
peaking Wednesday into Thursday. Highway 12 along the outer
banks could be greatly impacted and may become impassable at
times, especially along pea island. Coastal flooding along the
southern pamlico sound is also possible but the degree of
flooding remains uncertain and will depend on how strong as well
as the duration of the northerly winds across the region. The
soundside of the outer banks from buxton to ocracoke and
possibly downeast carteret county look to be the most vulnerable
locations for sound side flooding at this time. In addition,
tropical storm force winds will be possible, especially across
the eastern third of the region with strongest winds expected
across the outer banks. At this time, rainfall amounts look to
be around 1-3 inches across the eastern half of the CWA to less
than an inch across the coastal plain. We are not expecting
significant impacts from rainfall flooding at this time but it
could be compounded across the outer banks by the impacts
associated with coastal flooding.

Maria expected to quickly move away from the area Friday with an
upper level trough approaching from the west. Models not in good
agreement with the strength of the upper trough and available
moisture as it moves into the area but could see a few showers
next weekend.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 745 am Sunday... Brief MVFR ifr vsbys in light fog next
hour otherwiseVFR today. High clouds with no aviation concerns
through early tonight. MainlyVFR again tonight except patchy
MVFR to ifr vsbys after 08z inland at kpgv.

Long term Monday through Thursday ...

as of 4 am Sunday... PredVFR conditions expected through Monday.

Hurricane maria will slowly approach the region Tuesday and
stall off the coast Wednesday into Thursday. Shower chances are
greatest along the coast but could see periods of sub-vfr
conditions in showers at the terminals. Northerly wind gusts
around 20-30 kt possible, especially Tuesday into Wednesday.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 745 am Sunday... Building seas and increasing winds will
lead to deteriorating conditions over the coastal waters today
and tonight.

Seas are still running 5 to 7 feet over the coastal waters, as
northeast winds have increased to 15 to 20 kts. We are seeing
some 25 kt gusts at frying pan so gusty winds are not far off.

Seas build to 7 to 12 feet late today and 8 to 15 feet tonight.

Northeast winds will increase to 20 to 30 kts from later today
through tonight.

Long term Monday through Thursday ...

as of 4 am Sunday... Hurricane maria will lift north toward the
region Monday and stall off the coast Tuesday through Thursday.

There remains significant uncertainty with how close maria will
get to the coast before stalling so there remains low confidence
in the details of the forecast but it will certainly not be a
good time to be on the water. With the latest NHC forecast,
tropical storm winds are expected to impact portions of the
central waters beginning Tuesday and continuing into Thursday
with strong SCA conditions elsewhere. Seas are expected to reach
as high 15-20 ft Tuesday into Thursday and could even be higher
depending on how close maria approaches the region.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz095-098-
103-104.

High surf advisory until 8 pm edt Monday for ncz095-098-103-
104.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Friday for amz150-152-154-
156-158.

Synopsis... Eh
near term... Eh
short term... Eh
long term... Sk
aviation... Eh sk
marine... Rf eh sk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 31 mi67 min NE 18 G 23 76°F 1015 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi45 min N 8 G 9.9 71°F 80°F1015.5 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 34 mi67 min NE 12 G 21 75°F 78°F1015.8 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 34 mi46 min 78°F6 ft
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 38 mi90 min NNE 1 70°F 1016 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 38 mi45 min N 8 G 9.9 73°F 76°F1015.6 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi67 min ENE 19 G 23 77°F 80°F1015 hPa
WLON7 39 mi45 min 71°F 78°F1016.4 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 44 mi75 min NNE 12 G 14 74°F 1015.5 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC13 mi19 minN 610.00 miFair70°F69°F97%1017.2 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC19 mi18 minN 610.00 miFair71°F70°F96%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3NE5N8N7N8NE8NE8N9NE6NE73S3CalmN3E6E7N4NE6NE6N5N5N4N3N6
1 day agoN3Calm333CalmNE33S6S5SW3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmNW3CalmE4Calm3SE5E17
G23
SW3SW7SE6CalmCalmCalmW4CalmNE5CalmNW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:46 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:07 AM EDT     3.50 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:29 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:02 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:25 PM EDT     2.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.92.31.60.90.40.30.61.21.92.73.33.53.42.92.21.40.80.50.50.81.422.62.9

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:28 AM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:54 AM EDT     5.00 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:11 PM EDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:02 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:12 PM EDT     4.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.93.121.10.60.61.123.14.14.854.73.92.91.81.10.70.91.42.33.23.94.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.