Saturday, November1, 2014 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sneads Ferry, NC

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6/10/2014 - Marine Zones updated. Some zones have changed. Edit your Marine Forecast section to check.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 6:16PM Saturday November 1, 2014 3:57 AM EDT (07:57 UTC) Moonrise 1:54PMMoonset 12:37AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1252 Am Edt Sat Nov 1 2014
.gale warning in effect from this evening through Sunday morning...
Rest of tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft... Except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of rain late.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft...except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop... Increasing to choppy in the afternoon. A chance of rain in the morning...then rain with a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft...building to 8 to 13 ft after midnight. NEar shore...seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough. Rain with a chance of tstms in the evening...then a slight chance of rain after midnight.
Sun..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt... Diminishing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 11 ft... Subsiding to 6 to 9 ft in the afternoon. NEar shore...seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough...diminishing to rough in the afternoon. A slight chance of rain in the morning.
Sun night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough.
Mon..N winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy... Diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop...diminishing to flat.
Wed..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ100 1252 Am Edt Sat Nov 1 2014
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. A strong coastal storm will move through the eastern north carolina coastal waters Saturday evening and Saturday night. High pressure will build in from the northwest late Sunday into early next week then move off the coast on Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sneads Ferry, NC
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location: 34.54, -77.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 010446
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport/morehead city nc
1246 am edt Sat nov 1 2014

Synopsis
A strong coastal low pressure system will develop off the north
carolina coast this evening and move northeast off the east coast
through Sunday. High pressure will build in from the northwest
late Sunday into early next week then move off the coast on
Wednesday.

Near term /until 6 am this morning/
As of 1245 am Saturday... Lowered mins to around 40 coastal plains
with good radiational cooling. Upper level trough will continue
to dig toward the SE helping to develop a sfc low across the
piedmont of nc. A coastal low offshore will migrate to the north
and east. Therefore... North winds will continue overnight with
clouds filtering into the region ahead of this potent system to
the west. Given this dynamic weather pattern... Low temps may
eventually level off as the bl mixes and cloud cover moving in
from the west helps insulate the low levels. Lows temps forecast
to drop to around 40 inland coastal plains to low/mid 50s along
the immediate coast.

Previous forecast... A deep upper trough currently resides over
the eastern CONUS with a strong shortwave embedded in the
northwesterly flow over the midwestern states that will quickly
shift southeast into georgia and south carolina by 12z Saturday
morning. Eastern nc will reside between systems with the departing
low pressure off the coast and developing low pressure lee of the
appalachian mountains moving towards the area later tonight. The
sharp moisture gradient as noted by the latest satellite blended
total precipitable water product will continue tonight with pwats
falling below half an inch. The overall dry airmass and increasing
clouds from the west should inhibit fog development late tonight
or early Saturday morning. Overnight lows generally mid 40s/lower
50s.

The strong shortwave aloft will become a closed low over the
carolinas on Saturday as it moves off the CAPE fear coast. Strong
lift will be present so maintained scattered thunderstorms during
the day with categorical pops in the afternoon. Latest model suite
suggest some banded precip may develop along and south of hwy 70
to the outer banks... But this is difficult to nail down with
confidence beyond 6-12 hours. Current storm total QPF through
Saturday night is around a half inch inland to an inch along the
crystal coast and nearly 1.50 inches along the obx. Temps will
remain mild Saturday due to clouds and precip with highs in the
mid 50s inland to low 60s across the obx and southern coast.

Short term /6 am this morning through 6 pm Sunday/
As of 415 pm Friday... The surface low will shift off the nc coast
between 18-00z Saturday afternoon and deepen quickly as it moves
northeast towards southern new england. The strong upper low will
shift northeast away from the region as the upper trough axis slowly
shifts east through the carolinas. Strong cold air advection and
a tightening pressure gradient will produce strong northwesterly
winds across eastern nc. Bufkit soundings support wind gusts
upwards of 45 to 55 mph across the outer banks and counties
adjacent to the eastern albemarle and pamlico sounds late Saturday
evening through early Sunday morning. Wind advisories have been
posted for tyrrell... Carteret... Mainland and outer banks dare and
hyde counties. The low will shift well off the nc coast Sunday
morning bringing an end to precip from west to east. Temps
Saturday night will be cooler with lows in the low 40s inland to
low 50s along the coast.

Long term /Sunday night through Friday/
As of 415 pm Friday... Models in general agreement during period
and in line with previous fcst.

Strong CAA will continue over area Sunday with arctic high pres
moving in from NW as deepening sfc low races out to ne. Cold air scu
will gradually diminish across area during the day... But low lvl
thicknesses support MAX temps only in low-mid 50s with full
insolation. Sfc high center will build over area Sun night with
winds expected to decouple inland of coast... Allowing max
radiational cooling. Min temps around 32 likely mainly along and w
of hwy 17... And freeze watch/warning and/or frost advisory will
likely be needed with later fcst updates.

High and dry conditions expected mon-tue with ridging sfc and
aloft... Resulting in gradually moderating temps.

Ecmwf and GFS do differ slightly with next shrt WV trof late week as
gfs is slower. Both models indicate assctd front will be mainly dry
with deeper mstr drying up coming across mtns... And lowered pops to
only 20% for Wed night and thu. Cooler and drier for Friday.

Aviation /06z Saturday through Wednesday/
Short term /through Saturday/...

as of 1230 am Saturday... Expect predVFR conditions overnight.

Increasing clouds will likely preclude fog development
overnight... Though cannot rule out a brief period of light patchy
fog twd morn with light winds acrs inland areas at iso and pgv.

Rain showers should gradually overspread the area today with
lowering cloud bases... Best coverage in the afternoon as low
pressure system impacts the region. Expect MVFR conditions to
develop by this afternoon... With gusty nnw winds developing.

Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...

as of 415 pm Friday... High pressure will dominate through the period
with dry air mass producingVFR conditions. Strong and gusty nw
winds will gradually diminish Sun aftn and evening.

Marine
Short term /through Saturday night/...

as of 1230 am Saturday... Latest surface and buoy data indicate N winds
10-20 knots with gusts around 25kt across the central waters due
to a tight pressure gradient between the low pressure well
offshore and high pressure briefly building in from the northwest.

Seas continue at 5-7ft north of ocracoke and 2-4ft south. Winds
and seas will slowly subside overnight as the surface low
offshore shifts farther east moving the best pressure gradient
farther offshore as well.

A strong coastal low pressure system will develop off the nc coast
this evening. The low will move northeast towards new england
Sunday with strong cold air advection and a tightening pressure
gradient producing gale force winds for most waters with storm
force winds expected across the outer portions of the waters from
oregon inlet south to ocracoke. Gale warnings continue for all
eastern nc coastal waters with storm warnings for the central leg
as winds will gust 50-55 knots Saturday night into Sunday morning.

These strong winds will lead to dangerous 15-20 ft seas which may
produce high surf and minor beach erosion. Winds will diminish
below gale force Sunday with seas lingering at SCA levels into
Monday.

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...

as of 415 pm... Ongoing gale force winds with strong CAA will
continue Sun morning... With gusts gradually subsiding below gales
sounds and SRN waters Sun aftn. Sfc high center will gradually shift
s of area Mon allowing winds to back to w-sw with speeds less than
15 kt into wed.

Went with higher nwps over ww3 for seas with cold air expected to
mix well over warmer waters... Resulting in higher gusts. Seas
peaking 15-20 ft late Sun night will gradually subside will subside
but some 6 ft heights over outer portions of NRN waters into mon
evening. Lighter winds will allow seas to drop to around 2 ft
tue-wed.

Tides/coastal flooding
2-3 ft tidal anomalies are likely along vulnerable coastlines
adjacent to the pamlico sound as strong nnw winds develop Saturday
night and continue into Sunday. The northern outer banks and
southern pamlico sound... Especially south of hatteras, and down-
east carteret county will be particularly at risk for at least
minor flooding with possibly moderate coastal flooding if strong
gale force winds develop over the pamlico sound.

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories
Nc... Wind advisory from 11 pm edt this evening to 7 am est Sunday
for ncz046-047-081-095.

Wind advisory from 11 pm edt this evening to 10 am est Sunday
for ncz103-104.

Coastal flood advisory from 8 pm edt this evening to 5 pm est
Sunday for ncz103-104.

Marine... Gale warning from 6 pm edt this evening to 11 am est Sunday
for amz130-131-135>137-156-158.

Storm warning from 10 pm edt this evening to 7 am est Sunday
for amz152-154.

Gale warning from 6 pm edt this evening to 4 pm est Sunday for
amz150.

Synopsis... Dag
near term... Jac/cqd/dag/lep
short term... Dag
long term... Jbm
aviation... Jac/jbm/cqd/dag
marine... Jac/jbm/cqd/dag/lep
tides/coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41036 - Onslow Bay Outer, NC 31 mi67 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 60°F 73°F3 ft1005.6 hPa (-0.9)48°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi39 min N 7 G 8.9 55°F 71°F1004.9 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 33 mi47 min 71°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 34 mi57 min E 3.9 G 5.8 58°F 71°F
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 38 mi72 min Calm 51°F 1005 hPa48°F
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 38 mi39 min N 5.1 G 7 55°F 66°F1005.3 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi57 min E 3.9 G 5.8 59°F 73°F1005.7 hPa (-1.6)
WLON7 39 mi39 min 51°F 69°F1005.5 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 44 mi57 min N 9.9 G 12 55°F 1005.7 hPa (-1.4)

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville, New River, Marine Corps Air Station, NC13 mi61 minN 010.00 miFair45°F43°F93%1006.7 hPa
BOGUE FIELD MCAL, NC19 mi60 minN 310.00 miFair47°F43°F86%1006.8 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N7N7N8N7N7N9N11N14N8
G19
NE12N7
G16
N8N10N8N8CalmN6N7N6N4NE3NW4Calm
1 day agoN10N9N8N11N7NE10N9NE14
G17
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NE85NE10NE6NE6N5NE5NE6NE8NE7NE7N5N7
2 days agoSW3SW5SW5SW4SW5W8SW9W9SW9SW8W11SW11W11SW5S4S5SW6SW5SW5SW7W7NW3NW16
G21
N9

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
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Sat -- 01:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:51 AM EDT     3.09 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:59 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:19 PM EDT     3.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:43 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.82.533.12.92.41.710.50.30.511.72.53.23.53.432.31.50.70.30.20.5

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:38 AM EDT     4.42 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:41 AM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:06 PM EDT     4.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:25 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.93.84.34.443.22.21.20.60.60.91.72.83.94.754.7431.80.80.40.40.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.