Thursday, August27, 2015 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sneads Ferry, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.
1/11/2015 - Updated Marine Zones because NOAA split some zones on the East Coast. You may need to edit or your forecast section.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 7:43PM Thursday August 27, 2015 8:12 PM EDT (00:12 UTC) Moonrise 5:06PMMoonset 3:08AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 739 Pm Edt Thu Aug 27 2015
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft...except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Scattered showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft...except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 5 seconds...increasing to 10 seconds in the afternoon. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms...mainly in the morning.
Fri night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sneads Ferry, NC
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location: 34.54, -77.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 271946
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport/morehead city nc
346 pm edt Thu aug 27 2015

Synopsis
A stationary front off the coast will drift slowly east through
the weekend as weak high pressure builds into the area from the
north. Tropical cyclone erika is forecast to be in the vicinity of
the southeast coast early next week.

Near term /through tonight/
As of 240 pm Thursday... High pres will build in from the n
overnight as front remains stalled off the coast. Area will remain
in SW flow aloft with upr trf to the w. This upr trf is producing
some difl aloft near and off the coast and this will cont to
produce some sct shra espcly imd cst overnight. Have slight pops
deep inland thru aftn then drop pops these areas... Cont chc pops
along cst all night. Lows will range from low/mid 60s cooler
inland spots to lower 70s obx.

Short term /Friday/
As of 240 pm Thursday... Deeper moisture will grad move further e
fri as high pres builds closer and the front/low offshore moves
further e. Expect dry conditions inland with a slight chc to chc
pop imd cst... Espcly early. With more Sun inland shld see highs
around 85 with lower 80s cst.

Long term /Friday night through Thursday/
As of 335 pm Thursday... Weak zonal flow develops Friday with the
upper ridge over bermuda building west towards the southeastern
states. At the surface, a weak front will remain stall off the nc
coast through Saturday.

Little change in forecast reasoning based on 12z guidance through
the period. The frontal boundary and deepest moisture remains
stalled offshore through Friday night and will maintain dry
conditions inland to slight chance pops for coastal sections.

The upper ridge across the western atlantic builds west into the
southeast Friday through early next week while a robust northern
stream shortwave moves across the midwest into the weekend. A broad
shortwave will lift northeast around the western periphery of the
upper ridge Saturday night through Sunday, though will remain far
enough north and west of the region to have little impact. At the
surface, high pressure will shift off the mid-atlantic coast late
Friday and ridge southwest into eastern nc Friday night into
Saturday, then transition offshore with the piedmont trough
developing Sunday through Tuesday. Will maintain slight chance
pops for diurnally driven, mainly isolated, shower/thunderstorm
pattern through the weekend and into Tuesday. Temperatures will
be near or a few degrees above climatology for late august.

The forecast for Wednesday and Thursday, day 7/8, is particularly
tricky due to the uncertainty in any tropical impacts from
tropical storm erika, currently southeast of puerto rico. Will
hedge towards a model blend for this period with slight chance
pops Wednesday increasing to chance pops Thursday, as surface flow
shifts southeasterly and abundant moisture overspreads eastern nc.

The focus will be on the tropics this weekend as the national
hurricane center has tropical storm erika forecast to move into
the bahamas. Significant uncertainty continues with regards to
the strength and track of the system beyond day 3 with poor run to
run consistency in the models, thus it is too soon to speculate at
this time what impacts may be felt across the region next week.

Aviation /20z Thursday through Tuesday/
Short term /through fri/...

as of 1245 pm Thursday... Lower clouds appear to be mainly E of taf
sites now and expect mainlyVFR thru evening with brief MVFR poss.

Later tonight as winds diminish cant rule out some fog/st however
slightly drier low lvl air will be working in so for now think
will be mainlyVFR... However some lowering cigs/vsbys cant be
ruled out.VFR shld dominate Fri with deeper moisture sliding off
the coast.

Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...

as of 340 pm Thursday... PredominantVFR conditions expected
through Tuesday with only isolated, mainly diurnally driven
shra/tsra.

Marine
Short term /through fri/...

as of 240 pm Thursday... Ne winds expected to cont at mainly 10 to
20 kts overnight between high to the N and front/weak low
offshore. Most mdls seem underdone with winds currently so made
little change to prev fcst. These winds will keep seas 4 to 5 feet
cntrl and N and mostly 2 to 4 ft S with poss a few 5 footers well
e of lookout. On Fri the high builds just to the N as the
low/front drifts further e. This shld lead to NE winds
diminishing to 10 to 15 kts. The persistent fetch will keep seas
3 to 5 feet... Highest outer waters.

Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...

as of 340 pm Thursday... The high will shift off the mid-atlantic
coast Friday night into Saturday with winds around 15 kt or less
Saturday, diminishing to 10 kt or less by Sunday. Wind direction
will generally be northeast Saturday and Sunday, veering southeast
Sunday night then south Monday into Tuesday. Wind speeds will
become less than 10 kt Sunday night through Monday night due to
weak pressure gradient across the eastern nc coastal waters. Seas
will range 2-3 ft through the long term with some 4 ft seas for
the outer central waters. Local swan/nwps performing better in
northeast wind/swell conditions Saturday, then a general blend
with wavewatch for the medium range. Marine interests should
continue to monitor the development of tropical storm erika over
the weekend, currently located southeast of puerto rico.

Significant uncertainty remains with regards to forecast track and
intensity beyond day 3.

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rf
near term... Rf
short term... Rf
long term... Dag
aviation... Rf/dag
marine... Rf/dag


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 31 mi124 min ENE 14 G 21 78°F 82°F1015.8 hPa
41159 31 mi47 min 82°F4 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi42 min N 12 G 16 78°F 84°F1016.1 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 33 mi83 min 83°F4 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 34 mi64 min NE 19 G 25 79°F 83°F1015.8 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 38 mi87 min NNE 6 79°F 1015 hPa75°F
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 38 mi42 min NNE 11 G 14 75°F 81°F1016.2 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi72 min ENE 16 G 18 76°F 82°F
WLON7 39 mi42 min 78°F 86°F1016.4 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 44 mi72 min NE 17 G 19 77°F 1016 hPa (+0.7)73°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville, New River, Marine Corps Air Station, NC13 mi76 minNNE 810.00 miOvercast77°F69°F77%1016.9 hPa
Swansboro, Bogue Field, Marine Corps Auxiliary Landing Field, NC19 mi75 minNNE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F68°F71%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--SE6N5N7N3NE4N3NE5N4N5W10N11N8N7NE7NE10NE11NE9N9N10NE10NE8NE8NE10
1 day ago--S4------W3NW5--NE3--N5--NE7S3E3--SE5SE6SE8S9W12
G17
S5S3E8
2 days agoS3S5S3SW3S4--------------S3SW63SW5S9SE4S9SE36S5SW3S3

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
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Thu -- 04:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:47 AM EDT     2.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:53 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:23 PM EDT     3.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.411.72.42.932.72.21.40.60.1-0.10.20.81.72.73.53.93.83.32.51.60.7

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
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Thu -- 04:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:34 AM EDT     4.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:35 AM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:10 PM EDT     5.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.81.72.73.64.24.23.72.81.70.6-0-0.10.41.42.84.15.15.65.44.53.31.90.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.