Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 3:37 AM   Moonset 4:24 PM

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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 330 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Today - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers until late afternoon, then a slight chance of showers late. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Mon night - SW winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Tue - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: sw 5 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Wed - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Wed night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Thu - SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 330 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Front that has lingered over the area since Friday retreats nward while becoming more diffuse. Benign winds/seas into the early week but shower and tstorm activity is expected.

FXUS62 KMHX 050051 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 851 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
A meandering cold front will linger over the area today before retreating northward on Sunday. Thereafter weak troughing across the Eastern Seaboard and warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions through early next week. Drier conditions are expected by mid week, but will lead to increasing heat and humidity as ridging builds.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
As of 830 PM Saturday...Last bit of showers/isolated tstms lifting north of Martin Co early this evening as the western portion of the quasi-stationary front inches northward. Focus will turn to the coast for the rest of the evening as moisture advection increases with low level flow becoming southerly. The moisture plume is evident on radar and satellite imagery early this evening stretching SSE from Core Banks. Guidance continues to show precip chances increasing along a fairly narrow band from eastern Carteret county northward along the inner banks through the overnight, generally aligned along the remnant eastern portion of the frontal boundary as well as an area of favorable nocternal speed convergence. There is some descrepency with where it will line up exactly however, with some of the western most solutions approaching the hwy 17 corridor. While most of the shower activity overnight will generally be light, there could be some spots that receive a descent amount of QPF, esp. in areas where training occurs and could see a narrow band of 1-1.5"+ as depicted by some hi-res models.

Previous discussion...Isolated showers and thunderstorms across the region have been ongoing over the past few hours, which have been supported by a stalled front across central NC. With the upper ridge sliding offshore and the stalled front moving offshore, low- level flow will become south-southeasterly and generate stronger moisture advection. The CAMs are showing increased shower and thunderstorm activity developing east of HWY 17 and west of the OBX around midnight. With the increased moisture, PWATs will go from around 1" to 1.5"+. 500-900 J/kg of MUCAPE is suffificent to support some thunderstorms but shear is lacking, so the overnight severe threat is low.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
As of 3 PM Saturday...Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase from the west tomorrow afternoon with the support of a passing shortwave and the stationary boundary lifting north as a cold front. Chance PoPs cover the area through the morning with a period of likelys in the afternoon for the far western edge of the CWA CAPE will be sufficient but shear will be lacking once again, so thunderstorms are possible but the severe threat is low. With an increase in cloud cover and PoPs, high temps have been lowered by a couple of degrees. The coastal plain is expected to reach nearly 80 while the beaches stay in the low 70s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As 315 AM Sat...Unsettled weather will continue for the first half of next week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. By mid next week drier conditions will return but will be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity.

Sunday through Tuesday...Winds will veer to the south Sunday and then SW Monday and Tuesday as high pressure rebuilds offshore through early next week. Despite this, a combination of weak troughing inland and deep moist southerly flow will bring fairly unsettled conditions through Tuesday. Showers and convection will be diurnally enhanced and will target the NC coastal plain the most with Monday and Tuesday likely having the greatest coverage. Temperatures will be cooler but still above normal with highs likely in the upper 70s to low 80s Sunday and Monday, and a bit warmer Tuesday...in the low to mid 80s.

Wednesday through Friday...Drier conditions are expected mid week as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast.
However, increasing low level thicknesses and continued southerly flow will lead to hot and humid conditions will afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and the low to mid 80s closer to the coast.

By late Thursday a potentially strong frontal system will move towards the East Coast and more unsettled conditions are expected through Friday.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Saturday night/...
As of 8 PM Saturday...Pred VFR conditions across rtes expected through this evening. Cigs expected to lower to MVFR across NW sections late tonight (around 06-08z) which could impact PGV and ISO. In addition, a band of showers is expected to lift north across eastern rtes late this evening through the overnight with periods of sub-VFR conditions likely. Some of the showers could be locally heavy bring occasional IFR/LIFR conditions.
Generally expect this line to remain east of the TAF sites, but may approach EWN late tonight. With plenty of low level moisture in place, could see MVFR cigs linger through Sunday morning as LCL's rise with daytime heating. Pred VFR expected Sunday afternoon but scattered showers and thunderstorms will bring periods of sub-VFR conditions with greatest chances occuring across the western coastal plain.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 315 AM Sat...Generally VFR conditions are expected through mid next week, however increasingly unsettled conditions could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions each afternoon/evening. Dry and mostly clear conditions expected by Wednesday.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...Seas will be 2-4 ft and SE winds at 10-15 kt will become more southerly tomorrow. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the period but the severe threat is low.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 315 AM Sat...Decent boating conditions are expected this weekend with slightly worsening conditions developing early next week.

Winds will come around to the south of Sunday at 5-15 kts, and continue to veer to the SW by Monday at 10-15 kts. SW winds will then increase to 15-20 kts Monday night through Wednesday and could occasionally gust to 25 kts. Seas will be generally 2-4 ft through Monday and then increase to 3-5 ft Tuesday and Wednesday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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