Sunday, September24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Vandenberg AFB, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 6:55PM Sunday September 24, 2017 7:32 PM PDT (02:32 UTC) Moonrise 10:06AMMoonset 9:02PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ673 Waters From Pt. Sal To Santa Cruz Island Ca And Westward 60 Nm Including San Miguel And Santa Rosa Islands- 217 Pm Pdt Sun Sep 24 2017
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Wed..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Wed night..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 3 to 4 ft.
PZZ600 217 Pm Pdt Sun Sep 24 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 21z...or 2 pm pdt....A 1026 mb high pressure center was located 550 nm west of eureka and a low pressure trough stretched from southern arizona through central california.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vandenberg AFB, CA
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location: 34.55, -121.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 242127
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
227 pm pdt Sun sep 24 2017

Synopsis
Gradually strengthening offshore flow will bring a warming and
drying trend with mostly clear skies to the area through next
week. There will be some gusty north to northeast winds at times
over the region, especially below and through passes and canyons.

Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal for many areas by
early next week, then increase to much above normal by late in
the week.

Short term (tdy-wed)
prolonged period of weak to locally moderate offshore winds
expected through next weekend. Already seeing some offshore
breezes (with gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range) across the
mountains, foothills, and valleys today which has resulted in a
rapid warming and drying trend. Many locations across the forecast
area seeing temperatures 5 to 10 degrees warmer than this time
yesterday.

Lax-daggett gradient peaked at -2.4 mb this morning, and is
expected to increase to around -3.5 mb on Monday and Tuesday
mornings. In addition, 12z NAM cross section and high resolution
2km WRF model showing a solid 5-10 knot increase in offshore winds
through the boundary layer in eastern ventura and western los
angeles counties on Monday as compared to today. This will likely
result in offshore winds ramping up in areal coverage and speed
on Monday and Tuesday, with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range across
the mountains and valleys of los angeles and ventura counties.

While these offshore winds are generally expected to remain below
advisory levels, there could be some isolated wind gusts up to 45
mph on Monday morning across the los angeles county mountains
(including the santa monica range) and near wiley ridge in eastern
ventura county. In addition, high resolution models indicating
that brief offshore winds will likely surface on Monday and
Tuesday mornings across the ventura county coastal plain, and
from malibu to county line, although wind speeds expected to be
lighter than valleys and mountains. This ramp up in offshore flow
for Monday expected to bring further warming and drying to much
of the region, including coastal areas which will likely see
a dramatic warming where offshore winds materialize. In fact,
expecting locations like oxnard and camarillo to soar to between
90 and 95 degrees on Monday.

While offshore gradients are expected to weaken slightly by late
Tuesday and Wednesday, the models are trending towards a slight
increase in upper level wind support during this time as a closed
low pressure system dives southward across the colorado river
valley. Continued very warm temperatures with many valley and
inland coastal plain locations climbing well into the 90s on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

The combination of gusty offshore winds along with very warm
temperatures, low humidities, and very dry fuels will bring an
extended period of elevated fire danger this week, with brief
critical fire weather conditions likely at times Monday
through early Wednesday. For more information, please refer to
the latest fire weather discussion below.

Long term (thu-sun)
offshore flow weakens (but still remains offshore) on Thursday.

The upper support vanishes as well as the state will be under a
large cull area. Winds will not be a problem. There will be little
change in temperatures across interior areas but the coasts
could see a few degrees of cooling. Latest 12z GFS and ecmwf
model runs coming into better agreement for the Friday through
Sunday time frame, advertising a building upper ridge of high
pressure with increasing heights thicknesse during period, along
with offshore flow ramping up slightly. As a result, have trended
temperatures up slightly during this period, with the potential
for triple digit temperatures across warmest valleys next weekend.

Aviation 24 18z...

at 17z at klax... There was no notable inversion.

Overall... High confidence in the current tafs.VFR conditions
will prevail through the forecast period.

Klax... High confidence in the current taf.VFR conditions will
prevail through the forecast period. There is a fifteen percent
chance of east-southeast winds up to ten knots 09z-12z.

Kbur... High confidence in the current taf.VFR conditions will
prevail through the forecast period.

Marine 24 200 pm...

there is a thirty percent chance of small craft advisory (sca)
level winds across the northern and central outer waters Monday
afternoon and evening. Otherwise winds and seas will remain below
sca levels through Thursday. There will likely be some light
north to northeast winds each night and morning across the
nearshore waters from ventura south to santa monica through
Thursday.

Fire weather 24 1045 am.

A long duration of elevated fire danger expected across portions
of southwest california through this upcoming weekend. Weak to
occasionally moderate offshore flow is expected during this period
which will bring a prolonged period of very warm and dry
conditions to the region.

In the short term, offshore pressure gradients are expected to
peak Monday and Tuesday when lax-daggett gradients are expected
to range between -3 and -4 mb each morning. There is the potential
for a slight ramp up in upper level support on Tuesday and
Wednesday as computer models continue to show the potential for a
cutoff low pressure system to develop near the colorado river
valley. At this time, current thinking is that offshore winds will
be strongest across the mountains Monday through Wednesday
(including the santa monica mountains) when gusts between 30 and
40 mph are expected with local gusts to around 45 mph. Gusts
between 25 and 35 mph are likely for wind prone valley and
interior coastal areas. Offshore flow is expected to be weaker on
Thursday and Friday, then potentially nudge upward again by
Sunday.

This prolonged period of offshore flow will bring widespread
minimum humidities between 10 and 20 percent for areas away
from the coast through next weekend, along with poor overnight
recoveries across the mountains, foothills, and wind exposed
locations. In addition, there will be a prolonged period of very
warm temperatures with highs climbing into the 90s much of this
week in the valleys, and triple digit readings possible Friday
through next weekend. The above mentioned fire weather conditions
combined with fuels becoming critically dry will support this long
duration of elevated fire danger, with an increased risk for
large fires and erratic fire behavior. Brief critical fire weather
conditions are likely for areas with strongest winds Monday,
Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. Local or brief critical fire
weather conditions may return by Sunday.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (wed-sun)
a prolonged period of elevated fire danger is expected Wednesday
through Sunday due to the combination of gusty offshore winds,
very warm temperatures, low humidities, and very dry fuels. Brief
critical fire weather conditions will be possible at times on
Wednesday and again next weekend. There will be potential heat
impacts next weekend as triple digit temperatures are possible
for warmest valley locations.

Public... Gomberg
aviation... Kj
marine... Kj
fire... Munroe gomberg
synopsis... Sweet
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46218 - Harvest, CA (071) 25 mi63 min 60°F5 ft
46259 26 mi41 min 63°F6 ft
HRVC1 30 mi45 min 65°F 1011.9 hPa
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 30 mi43 min NW 14 G 16 63°F 62°F5 ft1011.7 hPa (-0.0)
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 31 mi33 min N 13 G 15 64°F 1012.2 hPa (+0.0)
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 45 mi33 min NW 14 G 18 63°F 61°F1010.9 hPa (+0.0)55°F
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 49 mi36 min 58°F4 ft

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lompoc, Vandenberg Air Force Base, CA38 mi35 minN 710.00 miFair62°F48°F63%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from VBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7N7E4SE4SE6E5E7E6E4CalmSE6SE6SE5SE5CalmNW5NW6NW8NW8N13NW13NW12N12N7
1 day agoN7N5N8N6N5CalmCalmE3NE4E3E5NE6SE4NE5NE10N9N14NW11NW12NW15NW15NW15NW11N10
2 days agoN12N7N12N13N14N12N11N4SE4E3E3NE3NE3N46NW8N7NW11NW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Point Arguello, California
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Point Arguello
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Sun -- 01:25 AM PDT     3.92 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:46 AM PDT     2.00 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:52 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:03 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:03 PM PDT     4.73 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:55 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:57 PM PDT     0.96 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:59 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.63.93.93.532.52.122.22.73.444.54.74.643.32.41.61.111.11.62.2

Tide / Current Tables for Oil Platform Harvest (Topex Project), California
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Oil Platform Harvest (Topex Project)
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:10 AM PDT     3.98 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:38 AM PDT     2.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:52 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:03 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:55 PM PDT     4.86 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:56 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:49 PM PDT     1.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:00 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.743.93.52.92.42.12.12.32.93.54.24.74.94.643.22.31.61.21.11.31.72.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.