Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Vandenberg AFB, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 4:57PM Friday November 16, 2018 12:26 PM PST (20:26 UTC) Moonrise 1:39PMMoonset 12:04AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ673 Waters From Pt. Sal To Santa Cruz Island Ca And Westward 60 Nm Including San Miguel And Santa Rosa Islands- 857 Am Pst Fri Nov 16 2018
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 6 to 7 ft at 14 seconds.
Tonight..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 6 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy dense fog with vsby 1 nm or less after midnight.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt in the morning, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sat night..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming nw 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 13 seconds.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 5 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft.
PZZ600 857 Am Pst Fri Nov 16 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 16z...or 8 am pst, a 1042 mb high was centered over british columbia, which will weaken some and move into eastern colorado over the weekend. A 1010 mb low currently 1000 nm west of point conception will slowly move toward california through early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vandenberg AFB, CA
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location: 34.55, -121.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 161822
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
1022 am pst Fri nov 16 2018
updated aviation discussion

Synopsis 16 315 am.

Weak offshore flow will keep dry and fairly warm weather across
the region today. Onshore flow will return Saturday, bringing
some cooling and a return of night through morning low clouds and
fog to coastal and some valley areas. Temperatures will be near
normal in most areas Sunday through Monday. Cooler weather is
expected for Tuesday and Wednesday. A couple of upper level
troughs moving into the west coast could bring some rain to
portions of the region late Wednesday into thanksgiving day.

Short term (tdy-sun) 16 916 am.

Lots of high clouds moving in today but not much stratus
developed. Gradients are still trending onshore and the lax
profiler shows 3-5 degrees of cooling below 2000' so all signs
pointing towards a cooler day despite the lack of stratus. Latest
obs already trending cooler so forecast looks in good shape. Same
for the weekend forecast so likely few changes if any with the
afternoon update. Long range still a mess but more ensemble
members now supporting some light rain for next Wed and fri
despite the operational GFS being dry.

***from previous discussion***
heights and thicknesses will lower across the region tonight and
Saturday as a weak trough drifts into the region. Pressure
gradients will become increasingly onshore, from west to east and
also from south to north. Models show somewhat of a southerly
surge across the coastal waters tonight and Sat morning, and show
low level moisture increasing in coastal and some valley areas.

Expect low clouds and fog to push into coastal sections south of
pt. Conception tonight, and, at least initially, the fog may be
dense in some areas. Southerly flow should help push clouds around
pt. Conception and into the central coast, and possibly into the
san gabriel valley. After low clouds dissipate on sat, there
should be enough high clouds to make for a partly cloudy day. Max
temps should be down a few degrees in most areas.

An upper ridge will push into the west coast Sat night and Sunday,
causing heights to rise again. Low level gradients will turn
offshore again by Sun morning. Do not expect much in the way of
wind, but it may reduce any low cloud coverage Sat night sun
morning, and allow for a few degrees of warming in many areas sun.

Long term (mon-thu) 16 403 am.

The upper pattern is forecast to undergo fairly rapid changes
next week, with timing differences between models. This is leading
to below normal confidence in the forecast for much of next week.

It looks as though the upper ridge will hold across the region
sun night and early Mon and gradients will remain offshore. An
upper low will race toward the region Mon afternoon passing to the
south of the area Mon night, then moving into arizona on tue.

Models show surprisingly little moisture from this system across
the region, with mainly some mid and high level clouds Mon through
tue. The low cloud pattern will be tricky to forecast, and may be
totally wiped out by this fast moving system. Still, lowering
heights should bring a bit of cooling across northern areas for
mon, with little change elsewhere. Minor changes in MAX temps are
expected for tue, except there may be some warming in northern
areas due to height rises.

A stronger upper trough will move across the eastern pacific
and into the west coast Wed through thu. The ec is sharper and
faster with this system, bringing the trough axis through the
region Wed night. The 06z GFS shows a broader trough, with the
trough axis remaining well off the coast through thu. This is
different from the 00z run which was more similar to the ec. Have
introduced slight chance to chance pops to much of slo and sba
counties for late Wed through Thu morning, with a slight chance
extending into vtu county and much of l.A. County Wed night and
early thu. As mentioned, confidence is below normal, and the gfs
maintains dry weather through thu, but there is at least a slight
chance of rain across the region during that time. Lowering
heights and thicknesses and increased cloudiness should knock
several degrees off MAX temps wed, with temps down to normal or
slightly below normal levels.

Aviation 16 1821z.

At 17z, the marine layer was 300 feet deep, with an inversion
extending to 2600 feet and a temperature of 18c.

High confidence inVFR conditions through 03z this evening.

Moderate confidence in low clouds reforming tonight into Saturday.

Low confidence in timing, exact coverage, and flight cats
however. Lifr to ifr cats are most probable at all coastal sites.

Moderate confidence that low clouds will stay out of kvny kbur. 20
percent chance of impacting kprb.

Klax... High confidence inVFR through 03z. 70 percent chance of
low clouds tonight, with onset window of 06-12z. If clouds form,
cats will be ifr or below, with a good chance of lifr, and a few
hours of vlifr dense fg possible. East winds are likely again
tonight, but moderately confident they will stay below 8 knots.

Kbur... High confidence inVFR conditions persisting with light
winds, except for a 5 percent chance of lifr low clouds Saturday
morning.

Marine 16 901 am.

High confidence in winds staying below small craft advisory (sca)
through Tuesday. Patchy dense fog will be possible anywhere
through Saturday.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (sun-thu)
No significant hazards expected.

Public... Mw db
aviation... Kittell
marine... Kittell
synopsis... Db
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46259 20 mi27 min 62°F9 ft
46218 - Harvest, CA (071) 25 mi27 min 65°F8 ft
HRVC1 30 mi39 min 65°F 1015.9 hPa
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 30 mi37 min W 5.8 G 7.8 61°F 64°F7 ft1016 hPa (-0.4)
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 31 mi87 min SSE 6 G 9.9 63°F 1016.9 hPa (+0.6)
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 45 mi37 min 3.9 G 5.8 8 ft
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 49 mi30 min 65°F6 ft

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lompoc, Vandenberg Air Force Base, CA38 mi92 minWNW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F54°F75%1017.1 hPa

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Last 24hrW10NW6NW65E3SE4E3SE3E4E4E6SE5CalmE5SE7SE4SE6SE8SE93SE33NW5NW3
1 day agoW7W8W7NW5N4CalmE4E6SE7SE6SE9E5SE6E5SE8SE7SE10SE11SE11SE7SE733W8
2 days agoNW6W6W7NW7N7N5CalmSE4SE6SE7SE8E5SE8E5SE6SE6SE7SE7SE8SE7SE74SW65

Tide / Current Tables for Port San Luis, California
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Port San Luis
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Fri -- 12:01 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:53 AM PST     4.39 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:38 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:39 AM PST     2.67 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:37 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:44 PM PST     3.92 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:56 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 11:25 PM PST     0.83 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.62.43.23.84.34.44.23.83.432.72.72.93.23.63.83.93.73.22.51.81.20.9

Tide / Current Tables for Port San Luis Wharf, California
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Port San Luis Wharf
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Fri -- 12:01 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:13 AM PST     4.24 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:38 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:59 AM PST     2.62 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:37 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:56 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:01 PM PST     3.82 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:46 PM PST     0.92 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.52.12.93.544.24.23.93.432.72.62.733.43.73.83.73.32.721.41

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.