Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Burgaw, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 5:01PM Thursday December 13, 2018 1:42 AM EST (06:42 UTC) Moonrise 11:41AMMoonset 10:47PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 927 Pm Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Overnight..W winds 5 kt, increasing to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft in the morning, then 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 6 to 9 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely in the morning, then showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 927 Pm Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will move across the southeast, reaching the coast tonight and shifting farther offshore on Thursday. Low pressure approaching from the gulf coast will move up through the southeast Friday through this weekend. High pressure will build in from the west early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Burgaw, NC
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location: 34.58, -77.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 130530
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1200 am est Thu dec 13 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will move offshore today. Low pressure approaching
from the gulf will bring significant rain Friday into Saturday
with up to three inches of rain possible. High pressure will
build in from the west early next week.

Near term through Thursday
As of 945 pm Wednesday... Calm to light southwest winds tonight
as high pressure shifts offshore overnight. Overnight
temperatures tonight are not expected to be quite as cold as
last night, but still dropping into the mid 30s.

The rest of the forecast remains on track with increasing cloud
cover Thursday and temperatures warming into the upper 50s and
lower 60s ahead of the next disturbance that will bring the next
chances for heavy rainfall for the end of the week.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... Unsettled wx still progged for the short term
period with periods of moderate to heavy rain expected. For Thursday
night, after a dry evening, chances for rain increase from SW to ne
overnight as moisture and warm air advection increase out ahead of
the aforementioned low pressure system. Mainly just light to
moderate rain expected Thursday night with low temps ranging from
the mid 40s inland to near 50 at the coast.

Heavier rain then expected into Friday as the best moisture and
forcing for ascent become co-located over the local area.

Categorical pops everywhere, with the best chance of rain during the
aftn hours. Maintained mention of heavy rain and isolated tstms as
well. High temps in the low mid 60s.

The moderate to at times heavy rain continues into Friday night,
especially during the evening, before the warm air advection weakens
and drier air moves in from the west. Any lingering rain into sat
will be lighter and mainly confined to eastern areas. As far as
storm total amounts... 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF both now have 2-5 inches
forecasted for the entire cwa, with the highest amounts near the
coast. If this pans out then wilmington will easily make it to the
100 inch mark for the year (see climate section below).

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... Drying trend continues into Saturday night
with the main frontal boundary pushing offshore. With the upper-
level low still in the vicinity held onto a 20-30% pop Saturday
night and Sunday. Dry then through the middle of next week as the
upper-level low pulls offshore and sfc high pressure builds in from
the west. High temps Monday and Tuesday mainly in the 50s.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
As of 06z...VFR expected through the period for the most part, save
for possibly some MVFR visibility at cre. Otherwise high level
cirrus the only cloud cover and winds to remain quite light. Low
lowering of ceilings expected towards the very end of the period but
have left out at this time due to uncertainty and the fact that
guidance is often too fast aggressive with moisture flux.

Extended outlook... MVFR tempo ifr Fri due to rain
and isolated thunderstorms. Sat MVFR becomingVFR. SunVFR tempo
MVFR isolated showers. MonVFR.

Marine
Near term through Thursday ...

as of 945 pm Wednesday... High pressure continues with very light
offshore winds tonight below 10 kts. Waves expected to remain
below 3 feet.

Short term Thursday night through Monday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... Winds gradually increase Thursday night into
Friday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of an approaching
low pressure system. Still expecting small craft advisory conditions
to commence by Friday morning over the coastal waters, likely
lasting through at least Saturday evening. Wind gusts up to 25-30 kt
Friday Friday night. Seas up to 7-9 ft out 20 nm. Expect improving
wx conditions by Saturday and Sunday as an upper-level low pressure
system lifts northeast of the area. The sfc pressure gradient
relaxes ever so slightly, but will still be conducive to 15 to 20 kt
winds both days. Sub-small craft advisory conditions then for early
to mid next week.

Climate
As of 300 am Wednesday... No rain fell yesterday leaving
wilmington's annual total at 97.75 inches. Our newly-updated
forecast for Friday includes 2 inches of rain, followed by
another three-quarters of an inch on Saturday. This should be
enough to push our annual total over 100 inches! Details are
available at https: weather.Gov ilm raceto100

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... 8
near term... Mck
short term... Mas
long term... Mas
aviation... mbb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi55 min WSW 5.1 G 6 42°F 63°F1024.4 hPa
WLON7 26 mi55 min 38°F 46°F1024.1 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 30 mi43 min 55°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 30 mi95 min NW 5.8 G 7.8 49°F 55°F1024 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi95 min WNW 12 G 16 55°F 65°F1023.7 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville, Albert J Ellis Airport, NC19 mi47 minN 08.00 miFair34°F33°F97%1025 hPa
MCAS New River, NC19 mi47 minWNW 310.00 miFair35°F34°F96%1024.5 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC22 mi50 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist34°F32°F92%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W6W3W4SW5SW4Calm3NE33SE3CalmE4S7S3SE3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmW3CalmNW3
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NW13NW12NW10W5CalmCalmSW3SW4W5W6W6
2 days agoNW11N10N12
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Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Thu -- 01:59 AM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     1.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:58 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:40 PM EST     1.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:47 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.20.10.20.60.91.11.21.110.70.50.30.10.10.20.50.91.21.31.31.210.7

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:49 AM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:27 AM EST     2.85 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:39 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:35 PM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:47 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.11.71.20.80.50.40.61.21.92.52.82.82.62.11.610.60.30.30.61.21.82.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.