Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Burgaw, NC

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Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 8:27PM Thursday June 20, 2019 7:44 PM EDT (23:44 UTC) Moonrise 10:14PMMoonset 7:50AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 704 Pm Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning...
.severe Thunderstorm watch 408 in effect until 10 pm edt this evening...
Overnight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly this evening.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..S winds 10 kt, becoming sw. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day.
Mon..SW winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 704 Pm Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure centered near bermuda will shift farther offshore, as a trough of low pressure approaches the coast. A few storms could become severe on the waters this evening, as a cold front is forced off the coast. High pressure over the coast Friday will slip offshore this weekend, bringing a return of sw wind.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Burgaw, NC
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location: 34.58, -77.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 201848
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
248 pm edt Thu jun 20 2019

Synopsis
Severe thunderstorms possible ahead of an approaching cold
front this afternoon and early evening. After the cold frontal
passage, drier and less humid air will arrive Friday. Heat and
humidity, and the chance for showers and thunderstorms will
gradually return through the weekend into early next week.

Near term through Friday night
As of 245 pm Thursday... Convective severe event about to get
going this afternoon via a developing cumulus field and some
showers starting to show up. All of the area is now in a severe
thunderstorm watch (number 408) until 10 pm. I certainly expect as
the event evolves western counties will be able to be dropped
west to east. Recent runs of the high resolution guidance show
most of the activity offshore by late evening. A quick
meteorological overview shows a strong shortwave moving across
kentucky with strong heating ahead of the system as well as
adequate bulk shear. With the synoptic surface winds fairly
strong, the sea breeze should remain in close proximity to the
coast all but mitigating marine layer influences. I have
maintained the chance to likely pops but will likely increase to
categorical briefly as things progress. The front will lag behind
a bit crossing the area Friday morning with high pressure settling
in through Saturday morning. Expect slightly cooler temperatures
starting Friday with dewpoints much cooler dropping into the
middle to even lower 60s at times. Dry conditions after tonight's
event.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
As of 245 pm Thursday... Mid upper ridge axis will move across the
mississippi river valley Saturday and maintain NW flow aloft
across the carolinas. Quasi-stationary frontal boundary is
expected to be lingering across the area Saturday into Saturday
night, and with some moisture return, can't rule out the potential
for some limited shower TSTM development. Any frontal remnants
should be north of the forecast area Sunday, however scattered
convection will still be possible given typical afternoon
instability. Will opt for consensus MOS for temperature forecast,
as the ECMWF and GFS are 5-6 degrees apart by Sunday.

Long term Monday through Thursday
As of 245 pm Thursday... Mid upper ridge axis will transition
overhead Monday. This will act to suppress convection, although
isolated to widely scattered activity will be possible given low-
level return flow. It will also cause temperatures to surge, with
highs each day reaching into the low to mid 90s. Monday and
Tuesday are expected to be the warmest days based on latest
guidance, with heat indices approaching advisory criteria these
days. Widely scattered to scattered showers tstms can't be ruled
out at this point for any day, however should be most isolated
Monday-Tuesday due to subsidence associated with the mid upper
ridge.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 18z... Stratus has lifted to widespread CU across the
area. Skies will become mostly clear and remainVFR through a
majority of the afternoon. Southerly winds 15-25 knots with
higher gusts will continue to increase this afternoon as the pg
tightens ahead of an approaching cold front. With the existing
instability and high shear, high confidence of an organized line
of convection developing this afternoon and progressing through
the cwa, beginning at the inland terminals around 21z and
reaching the coastal terminals, quickly, by 00z. Llws (25040kt)
possible along the coast as the cold front moves through after
00z. Clearing skies will follow as winds become westerly around
10-15 knots;VFR conditions will return through the end of the
period.

Extended outlook... MainlyVFR through the period with brief MVFR ifr
conditions from afternoon convection and early morning fog and or,
low stratus.

Marine
As of 245 pm Thursday... Small craft conditions underway this
afternoon as a strong storm system and cold front are affecting
the waters. Expect the advisory to continue through midday Friday
although the southwest flow of 20-25 knots will have shifted to
westerly as the front moves offshore. High pressure will build in
beyond this through early Saturday with winds dramatically
decreasing to ten knots or less by Friday evening with a weak
westerly direction. Significant seas will remain elevated through
Friday morning basically running in a range of 4-7 feet. No
changes to the expiration of the advisory at noon Friday.

Surface front will be wavering across the area Saturday,
somewhere in the vicinity of the south santee river. Wind speeds
Saturday will be variable and 10 kt or less near the front,
veering to the ene on the north of the boundary, and increasing
to 10-15 kt. The front will wash out, with SE surface winds
developing by Sunday, the S Sunday night as bermuda high sets
up. General southerly flow will persist Monday through midweek,
with isolated to scattered showers tstms possible each day. An
8-9 second SE swell is expected to develop by Monday and
continue into midweek, with seas remaining below 3 ft.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for scz054-
056.

Nc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz106-
108.

Marine... Small craft advisory until noon edt Friday for amz250-252-254-
256.

Synopsis... Crm
near term... Shk
short term... Crm
long term... Crm
aviation... 21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi57 min W 20 G 28 1008.1 hPa
WLON7 26 mi63 min 82°F1007.7 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 30 mi45 min 78°F5 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 30 mi37 min W 31 G 51 76°F 79°F1008.5 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi97 min WSW 23 G 31 80°F 80°F1006.9 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville, Albert J Ellis Airport, NC19 mi49 minSW 910.00 miFair89°F72°F57%1005.5 hPa
MCAS New River, NC19 mi49 minSSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F77°F82%1005.5 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC22 mi52 minWSW 1310.00 miThunderstorm74°F69°F85%1008.3 hPa

Wind History from OAJ (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Thu -- 12:39 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:19 AM EDT     1.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:25 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:39 PM EDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.30.71.11.41.51.51.310.80.50.30.10.10.40.811.21.21.10.80.60.4

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
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Thu -- 05:20 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:41 AM EDT     2.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:14 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:56 PM EDT     3.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.31.60.90.40.10.20.71.42.22.72.82.52.11.50.90.40.20.30.91.62.433.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.