Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Swansboro, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:02PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 1:56 PM EST (18:56 UTC) Moonrise 2:15PMMoonset 2:32AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 113 Pm Est Tue Dec 18 2018
This afternoon..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Wed night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon. Showers in the morning, then showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. Showers.
Fri..SW winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough. A chance of showers.
Sat..W winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to a moderate chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Swansboro, NC
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location: 34.59, -77.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 181808
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
108 pm est Tue dec 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build over the area through mid week.

Another wet storm system is forecast to impact the area
Thursday into Friday. High pressure will build over the area
over the weekend into early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 110 pm Tuesday... No changes to forecast needed. High
pressure will build over the area from the NW today. Cold
advection and associated northerly flow will result in cooler
temperatures today despite sunny skies. A thin veil of cirrus
clouds will move into the area this afternoon into early
evening. Highs will range from the lower 50s inland to the mid
to upper 40s coast.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
As of 235 am Tuesday... High pressure is forecast to crest over
the area tonight producing continued clear skies and light
winds. Resulting strong radiational cooling will produce cold
low temps in the upper 20s to lower 30s inland and lower to
middle 30s coast.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
As of 250 am Tuesday... High pressure will move offshore
Wednesday as another storm system lifts west and north of the
area Thursday into Friday. High pressure builds in again from
the west for the upcoming weekend.

Wednesday and Wednesday night... High pressure will begin to
slide offshore Wednesday as low-level SE S flow increases
Wednesday night. Precipitable water values will surge to almost
1.5 inches by late Wednesday night and will raise pops slightly
near the coast after 06z Thursday as a few warm advection
showers will develop. Highs temperatures on Wednesday will be in
the low mid 50s, but will only drop to the mid 40s to lower 50s
as strong warm-air advection kicks in Wednesday night.

Thursday through Friday... Longer range models continue to be in
good agreement showing cut off upper level low tracking across
the deep south then turning up the mid-atlantic coast by Friday
as strengthening surface low moves west across the mountains and
to our north. Deep moisture will arrive by later on Thursday as
precipitable water values surge to nearly 2 inches, well above
the normal for this time of year. Model QPF continues to
consistently show 2-3 inches across our cwa, with localized
higher amounts, especially along the central outer banks, where
the GFS shows up to 5 inches of rainfall. Flood potential will
need to be monitored given the extraordinary excess of rainfall
that has occurred in the region over the past 4 months. Gusty
winds will also accompany this storm system. Will also continue
to mention a chance of a few thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night as surface-based CAPE values of 500-750 j kg
are seen in some of the guidance. With the gusty S SE winds,
temperatures will be much milder, reaching the mid upper 60s for
Thursday and low mid 60s Friday with lows remaining in the 50s.

Friday night through Monday... Precipitation should move offshore
Friday evening as high pressure builds in from the west for the
weekend. With no real arctic air anticipated, temperatures
should be normal for the weekend with highs generally in the 50s
and lows in the 30s.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
Short term through 18z Wednesday ...

as of 1252 pm Tuesday...VFR conditions will continue to prevail
through tomorrow morning as dry high pressure builds over the
area. N winds will gradually become light or calm tonight before
becoming E in the morning as the high begins to push offshore.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 3 am Tuesday...VFR conditions should prevail on Wednesday
as high pressure gradually shifts offshore. Widespread areas of
sub-vfr ceilings and vsbys are likely starting Thursday
afternoon into Friday as a strong storm system brings showers, a
few thunderstorms and gusty winds to the TAF sites. Conditions
should improve toVFR as the storm exits late Friday night and
Saturday.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 110 pm Tuesday... Allowed scas to expire at 18z south of
ocracoke and the pamlico sound. No other changes made. Continue
the sca's for the sounds and near shore waters today. Ongoing
northerly surge 15-25 kt this morning is forecast to diminish
this afternoon to 10 to 20 kt, then as high pressure crests over
the waters tonight winds will diminish to 5 to 10 kt after
midnight. Seas will build to 4-7 ft today (highest over the
northern and central waters), then subside to 2-4 ft late
tonight as winds become light.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 3 am Tuesday... As high pressure shifts offshore on
Wednesday, winds should veer from NE to more E se, but will
remain light at 10 knots or less. With an approaching storm
system, winds and seas ramp up Thursday into Friday with gale
force winds possible Thursday night as SE S winds of 25-35
knots are expected with gusts to near 40 knots possible. Seas
build to as high as 10-15 feet by Thursday night. These rough
conditions will persist into the weekend as strong low pressure
passes to the west and north of our area.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for amz150-
152-154.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Hsa jme
short term... Jme
long term... Ctc
aviation... Ms jme ctc
marine... Hsa jme ctc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 30 mi57 min NNE 9.9 G 14 48°F 55°F1020.3 hPa (-1.3)
41064 30 mi49 min ENE 12 G 18 50°F 66°F1019.1 hPa
41159 30 mi57 min 66°F4 ft
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 37 mi57 min N 13 G 15 1020 hPa (-1.3)
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 40 mi57 min ENE 8.9 G 11 49°F 67°F1020.4 hPa (-0.9)
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 41 mi49 min ENE 9.7 G 16 49°F 55°F1020.1 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 41 mi57 min 55°F3 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 42 mi49 min NE 14 G 19 53°F 66°F1019.7 hPa
WLON7 46 mi57 min 64°F 49°F1019.8 hPa (-1.3)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC12 mi2 hrsNE 810.00 miFair52°F32°F47%1021.1 hPa
MCAS New River, NC14 mi61 minN 710.00 miFair52°F33°F49%1020.6 hPa

Wind History from NJM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW9W10W8W6W4W4W5W7W7W7NW6NW6NW5NW6NW4CalmCalmCalmW3W46NW7NW8
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2 days agoSW5W5SW4SW6W9SW7W5W4CalmW5W5W4SW5SW5W6W5W6W7W7W8W10W7
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Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:32 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:27 AM EST     2.20 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:49 AM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:43 PM EST     1.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:51 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.522.22.21.91.51.10.60.40.30.40.81.21.61.921.81.40.90.40.100.2

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:33 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:30 AM EST     2.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:51 AM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:46 PM EST     2.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:53 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.422.62.92.92.62.11.40.80.40.30.511.62.22.62.62.41.91.20.60.200.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.